wwrp- gaw 1 wwrp jsc 21-24 february 2011 wmo sand and dust storm warning and assessment system...
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WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System (SDS-WAS)
SOME RESEARCH ASPECTS
IN THE SDS-WAS IMPLEMENTATION
Slobodan Nickovic
Research DepartmentWorld Meteorological Organization
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AWDust Plumes off Libya and Egypt
February 18, 2011
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MODIS detection of dust strom
Health NASA dust-health related project
REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011)
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Sources based on MODIS hi-res data
Health NASA dust-health related project
REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011)
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Health NASA dust-health related project
REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011)
Hot-spot structure of sources Requires hi-res models
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Comparison with observed valuesMean values for 3 locations with observations:
19-22h UTC00-03h UTC450
430
Casa Grande, Stanfield, Cowtown
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Links between meningitis and dusty weather Project partners: WMO, WHO, GEO, IRI MACC – AEMET & BSC
Health MERIT project
Sahel region within the meningitis epidemics area
BSC dust model – 46 years of dust & weather reanalysis (Perez et al., 2007)
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TUNIS (CNN) 7 May, 2002, 17:44 GMT -- An EgyptAir jet crashed on a hillside outside Tunisia's capital, killing 18 people, a government official said…
…Weather was foggy and rainy at the time, with sandstorms blowing in from the Sahara Desert. ...
Aviation
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Predicted dust load (μg m-2)
Site of the accident
06 UTC, 7 May 2002 18-hr forecast
Predicted cross-section dust concentration (μg m-3)
12 UTC, 7 May 2002 24-hr forecast
18 UTC, 7 May 2002 30-hr forecast
06 UTC, 7 May 2002 18-hr forecast
18 UTC, 7 May 2002 30-hr forecast
12 UTC, 7 May 2002 24-hr forecastTunisian dust storm captured by MODISSource: Steven D. Miller, NRL, Monterey
Features of the case:- Major Mediterranean dust storm- Fast moving system- More than 5 mg m-3 in the
elevated dust cloud core!
dust
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Through negative feedback on winds “dust kills dust”. Perez et al., 2006Ground cools down by ~5 C during strong SDS and air aloft warms slightly
Without aerosol Feedback
With aerosol feedback
Including interaction dust and radiation can Improve Weather Forecasts In A Regional
Model (Nickovic 2002)
Dust-radiation interactions
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Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly in the UK operational model over the Sahara?Haywood, et al., JGR 2003
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Assimilation MODIS AOD in ECMWF MACC
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Assimilation of MACC dust AOD in a regional dust model (WMO South East Regional Climate Centre)
Without assimilation With assimilation
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D8-NO ASSIMILATION D8-WITH ASSIMILATIOND
UST
LO
ADW
ET D
EPO
SITI
ON
04 March 2010Case of yellow snow observed by visitors in the Kopaonik sky resort (location marked with )
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Importance of mineral composition in desert soils
• Fe and P embedded in dust ocean nutrients
• cloud ice nucleation sensitive to mineral composition
• Hypothesis: Fe as an enhancement factor in meningitis outbreaks (Thompson, 2008)
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Clay soils
Silt soils
Illite
Smectite
Calcite
Quartz
Kaolinite
Feldspar
Quartz
Calcite
Hematite
Fe-containing mineralsA(I,J); 4km
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ATMOSPHERIC IRON PROCESSING
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• Dust is a carrier of the embedded nutrients
such as Fe and phosphorus
• In remote oceans, input of iron in dust
dominates other inputs
• Soluble iron is an essential micronutrient in
marine environments• SDS-WAS and GESAMP
(joint workshop, March 2011)
Algae Bloom Canary Islands August 2004
(Ramos et al., 2008)
Ocean productivityWMO in GESAMP
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Horizont
alV
ertical
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Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe
Dust – efficient ice nucleation substance
• The number concentration of ice nuclei data since January 2008 at the Taunus Observatory
• DREAM simulations
• Joint study [Goethe-University group and WMO (Nickovic, Barrie)] combining observations and dust modelling
• May 2008 case
Klein, et al: Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe (ACP, 2010)
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25 May 09
29 May 09
27 May 09
DREAM simulation:
Dust load and 850 hPa wind streamlines
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Observations
Model
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ECMWF-dust
Homogenization - Data format (GRIB2)- Products - Forecasting range +72h, every 3h- Geographical domain- Lat/Lon- Color palette- ...
……N ModelBSC-DREAM
Homogenization of forecasts
Dust aerosol at the surface (mg m-3)Dust Aerosol optical depth at 550nm
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International Cooperative on AerosolPrediction (ICAP)
NAAPS
GEOS MACC