www.clivar.org/organization/pages/ overall goal of clivar/pages intersection: to improve the...
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www.clivar.org/organization/pages/www.pages-igbp.org
www.clivar.org
Overall goal of CLIVAR/PAGES intersection: To improve the understanding of decadal to
centennial climate variability
The IGBP-PAGESWCRP-CLIVARIntersection activity
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PAGES Areas of Interest
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CLIVAR Areas of Interest
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PAGES / CLIVAR in the past:
History- Developed in the early 90’s- to improve understanding of decadal to century scale climate variability- high-resolution paleoclimatic data to improve the predictability of change (corals, tree-rings, varved sediments and ice cores, ...)
Topics • dynamics of low-latitude climate change• global ocean thermohaline variability• regional-to-global scale hydrologic variability • dynamics of abrupt climatic change• model evaluation and improvement • climate change detection
ESF conference series, research initiatives (ARTS, PMIP)
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PAGES / CLIVAR- the past
MEETINGS:MEETINGS:•Venice meeting 1999: Linking modeling-data communityVenice meeting 1999: Linking modeling-data community•Il Ciocco, Italy, 2001: Abrupt Climate ChangeIl Ciocco, Italy, 2001: Abrupt Climate Change•Hadley Cell workshop 2002: Merging of P/C scientistsHadley Cell workshop 2002: Merging of P/C scientists•Drought workshop, US 2003: International networkingDrought workshop, US 2003: International networking•ESF, Spain, 2003: Linking modeling-data communityESF, Spain, 2003: Linking modeling-data community•PMIP MeetingsPMIP Meetings
•The Paleoclimate Intercomparison Project (PMIP)The Paleoclimate Intercomparison Project (PMIP)
•P/C networking within other programs (EPICA/IMAGES)P/C networking within other programs (EPICA/IMAGES)
•P/C addressed some IPCC questions - Paleo chapter in next report!P/C addressed some IPCC questions - Paleo chapter in next report!
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PAGES/CLIVAR present and future
Reconstitution and revision: • C/P-intersection working group meeting; Victoria, Canada, November 2004
Developed new vision to reflect more specific issues, based on paleo-reconstruction, instrumental data analysis, and modeling,
Co-chairs:Gavin Schmidt (CLIVAR)Eystein Jansen (PAGES)
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PAGES / CLIVAR: new vision
Key scientific issues
• Climate variability over the last few millennia
• Abrupt climate change - extreme events
• Hydrologic, biospheric, land-surface interactions:
Constrain/evaluate models; Expansion of the PMIP activities
• Tropical-extratropical links including ocean and atmospheric
teleconnections
• Overarching and Cross-cutting Implementation issues:
Outreach - workshops - link model/data communities
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Climate Variability - Past Millennia
Assessment and improvement of models ...
Jones and Mann, 2004
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Luterbacher et al. 2004
Europe and Northern Hemisphere: 500-year temperature variability
Climate Variability - Past Millennia
... and reconstructions.
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Merge the regional informationfor a global view!
Detect key regions for T / P
reconstructions.
Some activity already started in Europe and S-America, Antarctica in prep.
Climate Variability - Past Millennia
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Climate Variability - Past Millennia
Funded by EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute), PAGES and CLIVAR
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Climate Variability - Past Millennia
Sub-themes-Forcing and modeling-Methods of multiproxy reconstructions-Model/data comparison-Spatial patterns of past climate change
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Abrupt Climate Change:Is abrupt change likely under anthropogenic influence?
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Greenland temperature
051015202530
d18
O
Age, ky before present
Grootes et al. 1993
“8.2 ky event”
Clarke et al. 2003
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Modeled response to meltwater influx into the N. Atlantic
Simulation of 8.2 ky meltwater event
Incl. forward modeling of proxies.
Abrupt Climate Change:Temperature °C Precipitation mm/day
LeGrande et al., 2006, PNAS
18O precip ‰ 18O seawater ‰
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Abrupt Climate Change:
PAGES/CLIVAR workshop “Rapid Climate Changes and the 8.2 ka Event” (with UK RAPID Program)
October 2006, UK
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Future expansion of PMIP activities!
Hydrol. Biol. Land Surface Interactions:
Kohfeld et al., 2000Kohfeld and Harisson, 2000
6ka reconstructions:
The Biome 6000 project:
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Tropical-extratropical Linkages:Close interaction is expected between the CLIVAR Southern Ocean Panel and the PAGES/IMAGES Southern Ocean program, in addition to obvious links, already established (PAGES, old PANASH community).
Other issues of joint interest between PAGES and CLIVAR includethe NAO, PDO, Monsoons, IOD with regard to past strength and activity.
ENSO
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Overarching and Cross-cutting Implementation
Joint Publication:
Exchanges - PAGES News in 2005
“Climate Forcings”
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MedCLIVARMedCLIVAR: - a regional variability group for the mediterranean
region is supposed to constitute based on a joint MedCLIVAR/PAGES workshop planned for 2006.
Luterbacher et al. 2005
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MedCLIVAR
PAGES/MedCLIVAR workshop “Past Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East”
November 2006, Spain
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LOTRED-SA
Workshop “South American Climate Variability”
October 2006, Argentina
Long-Term climate REconstruction and Dynamics of South America
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www.pages-igbp.orgwww.clivar.org
www.clivar.org/organization/pages/
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