jalali october 23, 2002 overview introduction introduction where we are? where we are? where we go?...
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www.csee.wvu.edu/~jalali
October 23, 2002
OverviewOverviewIntroductionIntroductionWhere we are?Where we are?Where we go?Where we go?What is the fourth wave?What is the fourth wave?What is education for the fourth What is education for the fourth
wave?wave?ConclusionsConclusions
PART 1PART 1Introduction?Introduction?
““IMAGINATION,IMAGINATION,” ” said Albert said Albert
Einstein,Einstein, “is more “is more important than important than
knowledge.”knowledge.”
SCIENCE FICTIONSCIENCE FICTION
Imagination and fantasy often point the way to real-world developments. Many inventions, such as airplanes, radio, robots, the laser, and television, were first described in science fiction.
1st Wave: Agricultural Age (29,500 Years) Goal Produce Food
2nd wave: Industrial Age (500 Years) Goal Produce Material
3rd wave: Information Age ( 25 Years) Goal Produce Information
What is the 4What is the 4thth wave of change? wave of change?
4th wave: ?? Age ( 20 Years ahead!)
Alvin Toffler and the Third WaveAlvin Toffler and the Third Wave He has written about society,
culture, the media, organizations, science, computers, politics, and economics.
Third wave, based not on muscle but on mind. It is what we variously call the information or the knowledge age.
ARE THESE CATEGORIES STILL RELEVANT?
Why Subject is ImportantWhy Subject is Important
•During periods of great change (like now), we must know about the future.
•We must be able to prepare for what’s ahead.
•We should know the function of each age.
•We should know the role of breakthrough technologies in that process.
Today, only %17 of the workfource Today, only %17 of the workfource is directly involved in the material is directly involved in the material production of physical goodsproduction of physical goods
Simple workers will be reduced to 2% in the USA by year 2030Simple workers will be reduced to 2% in the USA by year 2030
19601960 19951995 20302030
33%33%
17%17%
2%2%
What is the Fourth Wave?
Education for the Fourth Wave
Space Age
What is the Fourth Wave?
Education for the Fourth Wave
Genetic Engineering Age
Education for the Fourth Wave
What is the Fourth Wave?
Education for the Fourth Wave
Nanotechnology Age
PART 2PART 2Where we are?Where we are?
Internet Smell Detector
Home ManagementInternet Refrigerator
Internet Car
EDUCATION
SCIENCESSCIENCES CULTURECULTURE
COMMUNICATION
WORKINGFOR PEACE
ANDSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT
UNESCO’S unique contribution: mobilizing the major intellectual sectors to prevent and solve problems, through coordinated action.
World Population from -1600 to 2000
0 2 4 6 8
1000
1300
1500
1700
1800
1900
2000 6.16.1
1.51.5
11
World Population 1000-2000World Population 1000-2000
0.720.72
0.50.5
0.420.42
0.330.33
Population (in billion)
Red
uctio
n o
f natu
ral resou
rcesR
edu
ction
of n
atural reso
urces
0 2 4 6 8
1900
1927
1960
1987
20006.16.1
55
33
22
1.61.6
World Population 1900-2000World Population 1900-2000
50% of the W. P. areunder 25 years old.
The W. P. will be increased one billion each 12 years till the year 2050.
The land used for farming has been reduced by 50% from50 years ago.
Population (in billion)
lamp radiolamp radio 19061906 laserlaser 19601960plasticplastic 19091909 industrial robotindustrial robot 19611961
refrigeratorrefrigerator 19131913 microscopemicroscope 19701970
lamp televisionlamp television 19231923 video recordervideo recorder 19711971
radarradar 19401940 scannerscanner 19721972
atomic bombatomic bomb 19451945 GPSGPS 19731973
transistortransistor 19471947 genetic engineeringgenetic engineering 19741974
computercomputer 19481948 high speed trainhigh speed train 19781978
optic fiberoptic fiber 19551955 walk-manwalk-man 19791979
lamp radiolamp radio 19061906 laserlaser 19601960plasticplastic 19091909 industrial robotindustrial robot 19611961
refrigeratorrefrigerator 19131913 microscopemicroscope 19701970
lamp televisionlamp television 19231923 video recordervideo recorder 19711971
radarradar 19401940 scannerscanner 19721972
atomic bombatomic bomb 19451945 GPSGPS 19731973
transistortransistor 19471947 genetic engineeringgenetic engineering 19741974
computercomputer 19481948 high speed trainhigh speed train 19781978
optic fiberoptic fiber 19551955 walk-manwalk-man 19791979
Inventions from 1900-1980Inventions from 1900-1980
COMPUTERS
COMPUTERS
WIL
L BE
WIL
L BE
MORE H
UMAN
MORE H
UMAN
SOFTWARE W
ILL
SOFTWARE W
ILL
GET SMARTER
GET SMARTER
THE WEB WILL BE SMARTTHE WEB WILL BE SMART
WORLD WIDE WEBWORLD WIDE WEB
Life Sciences - Life Sciences - Re-Engineering of Life Itself Re-Engineering of Life Itself
Tele-diagnostics Technologies Implantable Integrated Biodevices Recombinant DNA – Genopharmacology Bio-engineered Organisms, Tissue Systems,
Organs
PART 2PART 2Where we go?Where we go?
Primary Elements of The Primary Elements of The Emergent Operational Ecology Emergent Operational Ecology
InfotechBiotechNanotech
THE THREE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGICAL THE THREE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGICAL ELEMENTS IN CHANGING THE WORLDELEMENTS IN CHANGING THE WORLD
High Speed CPU’sHigh Speed CPU’s
Large Capacity MemoriesLarge Capacity Memories
High Speed MediaHigh Speed Media
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
80 90 93 95 97 99 5 11
200
1000
Transistor Count Versus Year for Microprocessors
Production of Production of Transistors are Transistors are 5000 billion 5000 billion for a day!for a day!
Production of Production of Transistors are Transistors are 5000 billion 5000 billion for a day!for a day!
Mil
lio
nM
illi
on
YearYear
Hig
h S
peed
CP
U’s
Hig
h S
peed
CP
U’s0.029
3.1 5.57.5
9.5
1.2
1000
200
THE FOUR CRUCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL THE FOUR CRUCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL COMPONENTS IN CHANGING THE WORLDCOMPONENTS IN CHANGING THE WORLD
High Speed CPU’sHigh Speed CPU’s
Large Capacity MemoriesLarge Capacity Memories
High Speed MediaHigh Speed Media
High Speed MediaHigh Speed Media
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
80 90 93 95 97 99 5 11
200
1000
Transistor Count Versus Year for Microprocessors
Production of Production of Transistors are Transistors are 5000 billion 5000 billion for a day!for a day!
Production of Production of Transistors are Transistors are 5000 billion 5000 billion for a day!for a day!
Mil
lio
nM
illi
on
YearYear
Hig
h S
peed
CP
U’s
Hig
h S
peed
CP
U’s0.029
3.1 5.57.5
9.5
1.2
1000
200
Transistor Count Versus Year for MicroprocessorsTransistor Count Versus Year for MicroprocessorsTransistor Count Versus Year for MicroprocessorsTransistor Count Versus Year for MicroprocessorsYear
Introduced VersionApproximate Number
of Transistors
19801990199319951997199920052011
808680486
PentiumPentium Pro
Pentium IIPentium III
ULSI?
29,0001.2 Million3.1 Million5.5 Million7.5 Million9.5 Million200 Million
1 Billion
The ULSI chip in the year 2005Minimum feature size of process technology 0.1 micro mTotal number of transistors 200 millionChip size 550 mm^2Clock frequency 2-3.5 GHzNumber of I/O connections 4000Number of wiring levels 7-8Supply voltage 0.9-1.2 V
By the year 2011 there will be one billion By the year 2011 there will be one billion transistor on a single chip.transistor on a single chip.By the year 2011 there will be one billion By the year 2011 there will be one billion transistor on a single chip.transistor on a single chip.