www.edprenovaveis.com edpr presentation march 2011 istanbul
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www.edprenovaveis.com
EDPR PresentationMarch 2011
Istanbul
I. EDPR
II. Designing an attractive renewable framework
• Remuneration and processes
• Lessons learnt
III. Application to Turkey
Agenda
3
A balanced wind portfolio located in highly selective attractive markets
1H10 EBITDA MW + Eólicas de Portugal
Portugal SpainBrazil
USUK
France
Belgium
Italy
Romania
Poland
99
19 246
Under construction
Pipeline + prospects
70
1 439
53
571
-
1 300
308
4 9676
39
1 138
13
62
-
520
60
1 406
228
613
2 859
14 680
-
2 278
220
57
-
120
-
Installed
8 European countries, 26 States in the US, Brazil and Canada
Canada
-
-
120
4
Consistent delivery of strong growth in installed capacity
Historic Capacity Growth
(Gross MW)
• Consistently delivering targets and a robust growth over the past 4 years
• Back-end loaded installation profile driven by wind farm construction schedule
• Capacity installed during 2009 to deliver stable cash-flows from 2010 onwards
CAGR>40%
5
2010-12: Executing a flexible growth strategy and taking advantage of optionality to maintaining the risk profile
EDPR’s average annual capacity additions(Gross GW)
Flexible growth by adjusting the pace to current economic and market environment…
EDPR’s new additions geographic breakdown
(% of EBITDA MW + ENEOP)
Gross MW
EBITDA MW
…re-balancing the portfolio to maintain the low risk and high visibility profile of the company
US
EU
BR
I. EDPR
II. Designing an attractive renewable framework
• Remuneration and processes
• Lessons learnt
III. Application to Turkey
Agenda
What do stakeholders seek?
Renewables investors
Governments
Low risk High return
Low return High risk
Develop local industry
Pay exactly what is needed
(avoid risk of over/under paying)Minimise system costs
Feed-in tariffs Market systems
There are four general policy systems to promote wind energyAlthough hybrid systems are often put in place
Feed- in tariff
Market price + Green
Certificate
Tenders
Financial and tax incentives
Mai
n s
yste
ms
Sec
on
dar
y sy
ste
ms
System description
• Producers of green electricity receive a fixed price (normally set for a period of several years)
• A variant of the feed-in tariff scheme is the fixed premium scheme in which a premium is paid above normal electricity spot price
• Renewable energy has two revenue streams:
− Conventional power prices from the conventional market
− Revenues from the sales of green certificate in a secondary market
• Secondary market is created when government forces a participant in the supply chain (generators, suppliers) to prove that part of its supply has GCs associated to them, thus creating demand for GCs
• Renewable energy producers supply GCs
• Price for GCs is set by market supply and demand
• The State places a series of tenders for the supply of renewable electricity:− Selection based on price and other quantitative criteria (scoring system)− Electricity supplied on a contract basis at the price resulting from the tender− Additional cost typically passed on to end consumer through a specific levy
• Reduction or exemption of electricity taxes applied to all producers
• Investment grants as a reduction of capital and/or total costs due to low interest loans
Each Government has to weigh up to pros and cons of every system before deciding the system to implement
Fee
d-
in t
ari
ff • Simple and low cost: easy to implement and supervise• Reduces regulatory and market risk for investors and loan
risk for financial companies• A stable investment environment promotes the
development of manufacturing• Effective in promoting different technologies
• Risk of over/under funding:- It can be partially compensated with market
monitoring and adjustment- Need to adjust tariffs as targets are achieved or
market conditions change
Advantages Disadvantages
Mar
ket
pri
ce +
G
reen
ce
rtif
icat
es • If working well, they lead to the best cost solution because is a market instrument
• If it works well, the targets are exactly met
• Increased risk and required return for investors, thus increasing effective costs, due to volatility & uncertainty on future prices
• Administrative costs• System may not create enough incentives to invest.• Since companies may avoid buying the GC by paying a
penalty, GC price may not rise to a level to make investment profitable
• Needs a banding to promote different technologies
Tax
in
cen
tive
s
• Easily linked with existing fiscal and financial structures• Does not create long-term certainty of investments• Risk of over/under funding
Ten
der
s
• Long term captaincy about receiving support • Bidding price can fall so low that contracts cannot be fully implemented
• Increases project preparation costs• The stop-and-go nature does not conduct to stable
conditions
Most of the European successful countries have a feed- in tariff systems
Germany
Spain
France
Denmark
Portugal
Greece
Austria
Italy
UK
Sweden
Poland
Belgium
Netherlands
Finland
Switzerland
Capacity installed in 2009YE by regulatory system
Fee
d-
in t
ari
ffM
arke
t p
rice
plu
s G
reen
Cer
tifi
cate
sO
ther
s
MW
Two main issues to consider when designing a framework for wind energy
Policy design (Financial support)
Permitting process
• A regulatory framework that provides financial incentives for investors to participate in the development of wind energy market
• Wind developers need to fulfil different steps to obtain the necessary permits and the grid connection
• Main steps are administrative processes (Environmental Impact Assessment permit, building permit, among others) but also includes the access to the grid
Policies on permitting and licensing, and grid issues are also critical to meet wind energy penetration
Permitting and licensing
Grid related issues
Issue Typical barriers Possible solution
• Set deadlines for the administrative process: if the authority is not able to meet the deadline, the project goes automatically to the next stage
• Reduce the number of authorities involved
• Provide a clear, streamlined and transparent procedure and decision-making process
• Complex and time consuming process
• Many institutions involved
• No clear authorization procedures
• Long time to obtain extensions or reinforcements in the grid
• No transparent rules for bearing and sharing the necessary grid investment
• Reduce the average grid connection lead time by setting deadlines for the administrative process, and training and allocating the necessary civil servants to handle the applications
• Reinforce transmission system
• Lower the connection cost by:- making the transmission operator
contributing to the cost - adapting the cost to the project size
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Overview of the regulation in the main geographies
FranceUnchanged € 87Feed-in Tariff
Spain
Agreement between Industry Ministry and wind sector
€ 84• Pool + Premium• Feed-in Tariff
USOngoing discussion on Energy Bill $ 48 (1)• Power + REC
• Tax Incentives
Romania
Legislative update for therenewable sector
€ 134 (2)Green Certificate
PolandUnchanged Green Certificate € 98 (2)
Unchanged € 95Feed-in TariffPortugal
Notes: (1) excluding institutional partnership revenues; (2) based on 2009 market price + green certificates
Country Regulatory UpdateRemuneration
Scheme
EDPR: 2009
Realized Price
I. EDPR
II. Designing an attractive renewable framework
• Remuneration and processes
• Lessons learnt
III. Application to Turkey
Agenda
Main lessons learnt from countries that have achieved large wind deployment
Long-term political targets
Predictable revenues
Transparent and straightforward
permitting
Avoid fragmentation
Tenders
• Successful countries in developing wind energy, have set long-term political targets and have drawn up structured action plans supported at the highest level to reach them
• It´s essential to provide a stable framework with predictable revenues that assure the profitability of the project
• It´s necessary to create a process that will facilitate increase generation in a timely and simple manner
• Transparent rules for bearing and sharing the necessary grid investment costs are necessary
• Fragmentation can prevent wind development, specially in countries with low wind penetration
• The allocation of groups of capacity, together with the development of industrial projects can be an effective tool to avoid fragmentation and spur the economy
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2
3
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• Minimum annual generation of 2.700 GWh (~4% of electricity in 2010-2012) • Electricity supply for more than 2,3 M inhabitants
• Allocated capacity committed operators to develop an Industrial Project• EDPR’s consortium, in which EDPR ‘s participation was 40%, won the tender for the 1.200 MW
installed capacity together with TP, Finerge and Generg, and Enercon Turbine Supplier
Energy system
Investment
Development of National economy
Regional development &
employment
Tender Description
• Direct investment of 1.700 M€ between 2006-2010• Wind farm development: 1.476 M€, factory units and associated services: 161
M€ and founding for the National Scientific System: 35 M€
• Industrial project will represent 2,5% of the Regional Product (Minho-Lima)• Reduction of regional socio economic differences• Creation of 1.800 new long term jobs + 5.500 indirect jobs
• Increase on exports >60 % of generation will be exported• Decrease on generator component and raw material imports
• More than 1MtonCO2 not emitted per year: 24 M€ annually saved and avoidance of ~80 M€ of external fuel payments
Tenders are sometimes used to create a positive impact for the economyExample: Portugal - ENEOP
Tender system for 1.200 MW capacity allocated
Benefits for the country
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Back-up
I. EDPR
II. Designing an attractive renewable framework
• Remuneration and processes
• Lessons learnt
III. Application to Turkey
Agenda
With an adequate remuneration scheme, Turkey will be poised for growth
Long-term political targets
Predictable revenues
Transparent and straightforward
permitting
Fragmentation
Issue
1
2
3
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Evaluation of current situation Comments
• The Ministry of Energy announced its target to install 20 GW of wind energy by 2020
• Feed-in tariff is not enough by itself to make investment attractive and currently wind farms are selling energy in the wholesale market
• New energy law
• In November 2007, EMRA received wind farm applications for 78 GW
• The first production licenses have been issued only after 3 years
• Nearly 58 GW of the 78 GW applications came from 20 companies