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LP Gas and Future Market PerspectivesJos Sergio Gabrielli de AzevedoCEO. October, 8th 2009
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The presentation may contain forecastsabout future events. Such forecasts merelyreflect the expectations of the Company'smanagement. Such terms as "anticipate","believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend","plan", "project", "seek", "should", along withsimilar or analogous expressions, are usedto identify such forecasts. These predictions
evidently involve risks and uncertainties,whether foreseen or not by the Company.Therefore, the future results of operationsmay differ from current expectations, andreaders must not base their expectationsexclusively on the information presentedherein. The Company is not obliged toupdate the presentation/such forecastsin light of new information or futuredevelopments.
The United States Securities and ExchangeCommission permits oil and gas companies,in their filings with the SEC, to disclose onlyproved reserves that a company hasdemonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to beeconomically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions.We use certain terms in thispresentation, such as oil and gasresources, that the SECs guidelinesstrictly prohibit us from including infilings with the SEC.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTFOR US INVESTORS
DISCLAIMER
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GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SCENARIOS
MEDIUM/LONG-TERM OIL MARKET OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY STRONG
Natural decline
Actual decline
Global liquids demand scenarios
EIA/DOE High DemandScenario
IEA Reference Scenario
EIA/DOE Low DemandScenario
2030 | 66 85 mm2020 | 42 51 mm
Additional RequiredCapacity (b/d)
Existing production
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008, EIA International Energy Outlook 2009
The global crisis impacted down the perspectives for demand growth, but in medium/long-termoil market outlook remains very strong Global oil production capacity will be challenged to meet projected demand growth
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Hid b B li i
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2,111,2
10,618,1
28,133,9
62
72,3
0
20
40
60
80
M i l l i o n T o n s
Oceania Africa CIS Middle
East
Latin
America
Europe North
America
Asia
31,0%
24,3%
6,1%
5,5%
21,0%
12,1%
Mexico Brazil VenezuelaCaribbean Argentina Others
WORLD LP GAS DEMAND
Source: Purvin & Gertz
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PRE-SALT POTENTIAL
Total Area: 149,000 km2 Area Under Concession: 41,772 km2 (28%) Area Not Under Concession: 107,228 km (72%) Area With Petrobras Interest: 35,739 km2 (24%)
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20,000
25,000
30,000
Santos and Campos BasinsPre-Salt(Tupi, Iara, Guar and Whales
Park)**
mi boe ~ 25-30 bn boe
Proven Reserves* +Santos and Campos BasinsPre-Salt
(Tupi, Iara, Guar and Whales Park)**
5,000
10,000
15,000
2008 ProvenReserves*
14,093
0
ANNOUNCED RECOVERABLE VOLUMES IN SANTOS AND CAMPOS BASINS PRE-SALT
*SPE Criteria
** include Petrobras and Partners
Higher estimates+5,400
Lower estimates10,600
Santos Pre-Salt announced recoverable volumes, canalmost double Brazilian reserves.
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T h o u s .
b p
d
208 215 230 257326 332 367 419250 220 255 24684 89 118
179738 771901
1224119 109112
150
182 208274
4002,301 2,400
3,655
5,729
1,7921,855
2,680
3,920
2007 2008 2013E 2020E
Others
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Jet Fuel
Naphta
Gasoline
LPG
Oil Production - Brazil
Oil and Natural Gas
1,906 1,9442,257
2,876
7,5% p.y.
REPLANRevamp33 thous.
bpd2010
RNE230
thousbpd2011
REPARRevamp25 thous
bpd2011
UPB150 thous
bpdDec/2012
Premium I(600 thous bpd) e
Premium II(300 thousbpd)
1st phase: 20132nd phase: 2015
ClaraCamaroRefinery
2010
PRODUCTION INCREASE FOLLOWED BY HIGHER DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCT DEMAND
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LP GAS COMSUMPTION IN BRAZIL
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
T h o u s
.
Industrial Residential Others
LP Gas Consumption (Thous. M3)
Source: ESTRATGIA / EMN & ANP
After 2009 Business Plan 2020 estimates
BusinessPlan 2020
Domestic LPG production in 2008: 6,71 million tonsLPG Brazilian market grew 5,4% from 2004 to 2008, representing an average variation of 1,08% p.y.Present in all Brazilian municipalities47 million homes are attended monthly.
BusinessPlan 2020
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LP GAS IMPORTS
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
I m p o r t a
o
( m i l h o
t o n
/ a n o
)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Importao Brasileira de GLPLPG IMPORTS (million ton/year)
Imports Origins (%)
Africa; 40%
Americas; 35% Europe; 13%
Middle East;12%
Middle East Europe Africa Americas
From 2000 to 2005 LPGimport fell due to NaturalGas substitution andderegulation on LPG pricesat the end-user; Imports started to growfrom 2005 to 2008 due tohigher domestic residentialand industrial demand
Imports coming mainly fromAmerica and Africa (2008)
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0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
M i l l i o n T o n s p
. y
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 0
Source: Petrobras.
* Data does not consider LPG production comming from pre-salt projects
FUTURE IMPORT ESTIMATES
From 2009 to 2016 - LPG imports will fall due toPLANGAS and new refineries (Premium 1, Premium 2,RNEST); Imports started to grow from 2017 on no significant
increment in new production, despite of marketincreasing in a pace of 1,7% per year
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PETROBRAS INFRASTRUCTURE
RefineryNGPU
Off Land Terminal
ShipLPG Pipeline
Terminal in Land3rd party off land terminal
CabotageImport
PETROBRAS INFRASTRUCTUREPetrobras Refineries
Petrobras Natural GasProducing Units(NGPU)
LPG Pipelines andTerminals
Petrobras Participation
10 refineries1 shale oil processing unitProduction:4,2 million tons/year
5 NGPUs2 In Construction*Production: 0,9 million
tons/year
7 onshore terminals2 offshore terminals inconstruction11 offshore terminals5 pipelines serving LPG,Total extention:1.550 km
REFAP S.A
33 % Refinery of Rio Grande
70% Petrobras / 30% Repsol
Production 0,4million tons/year
NORTH
NEMIDDLEWEST
SE
S
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LP GAS AND NATURAL GAS PARTICIPATION IN RESIDENTIAL MARKET
LPG Residential Market(thous. m3/y)
9.000
9.500
10.000
10.500
11.000
11.500
12.000
2 0 0 8
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 8
2 0 2 0
Natural Gas Residential Market
(thous. M3/y) *
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
* Energetic equivalence between LPG and NG: 1,63m3 of LPG = 880m3 of NG
+1,7% p.y+5,4%p.y
Residential Natural Gas market grows significantly more than LPGresidential market
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LP GAS INDUSTRY CONSUMPTION
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
OtherMetallurgyCeramic
thousand m 3
Strong replacement of LPG forNatural Gas, especially in thewhite ceramic industry in SantaCatarina and So Paulo States
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2008
OthersSanta CatarinaSo Paulo
LPG in ceramics
Industrial LPG Consumption
Sourse: ESTRATGIA/EMN
The strong shift of LPG in steel and ceramic segments is partially offset by asmall increase in the consumption of chemicals and foods.
thousand m 3
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PERSPECTIVES FOR LP GAS DOMESTIC MARKET
FINAL REMARKSFINAL REMARKSDifficulties: Use of wood as a substitute product Displacement by the entry of Natural Gas / LNG Informality in retail sector
Opportunities: Modernization of 18 plants for bottling system (improvement ofproductivity and costs)
Growth of internal production with reduction of LPG imports
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For more information:Investor Relationswww.petrobras.com.br/ri+55 21 [email protected]