www.lcra.org update on the drought of 2011 twca mid year conference june 16, 2011 bob rose,...
TRANSCRIPT
www.lcra.org
Update on the Drought of 2011
TWCA Mid Year Conference
June 16, 2011Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA
www.lcra.org
www.lcra.org
Rainfall Since October 1st
www.lcra.org
Rainfall Since October 1st
Rainfall Since Oct. 1
Midland 0.16Marfa 0.25
Fort Stockton 0.08El Paso 0.45
Brownfield 0.77
www.lcra.org
Rainfall Departure From NormalSince Oct.1
www.lcra.org
Rainfall So Far in June
www.lcra.org
While Many Areas Were in Flood, Texas Couldn’t Buy any Rain
www.lcra.org
One of the Worst Droughts on Record
• 3rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and 1956.
• October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record.
• Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.
www.lcra.org
Soil Moisture Anomaly
www.lcra.org
An Unusually Warm Start to Spring/Early Summer
www.lcra.orgLatest Drought MonitorLatest Drought Monitor
www.lcra.orgLatest Drought MonitorLatest Drought Monitor
www.lcra.org
Comparison with Worst of 2009 Drought
September 1, 2009
www.lcra.orgLa Niña has Ended. Now in Neutral.La Niña has Ended. Now in Neutral.
June 13th
www.lcra.org
Trending Back to La Niña?
El Nino
La Nina
www.lcra.org
NWS July through September Outlook
Temperature Precipitation
www.lcra.org
Drought Outlook through September
www.lcra.org
WetDry
www.lcra.org
Composite PrecipitationJune through August
www.lcra.org
Composite PrecipitationSeptember through October
www.lcra.org
NAEFS Forecast through July 1st
Probability for Greater than 1/2 inch of Rain
www.lcra.org
Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane
Season
Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane
Season
www.lcra.org
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
www.lcra.org
National Hurricane Center Outlook
www.lcra.org
Colorado State ‘11 Hurricane Outlook
“We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
William Gray and Phil Klatzback, Colorado State University, June , 1st Update
16 Named Storms (normal is 9.6)
9 Hurricanes (normal is 5.9)
5 Major Hurricanes (normal is 2.3)
www.lcra.org
Years with Similar Conditions
1971, 2008
www.lcra.org
1971
www.lcra.org
2008
www.lcra.org
2011 Hurricane Season Names
www.lcra.org
Bob RoseMeteorologist, [email protected]
512-473-3350
Bob RoseMeteorologist, [email protected]
512-473-3350