wyoming strategic planning meeting · educational attainment of working aged adults aged 25 to 64...

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

nchems.org higheredinfo.org

Wyoming Strategic Planning Meeting

May 23, 2019 | Sheridan, WY

Brian Prescott & Dennis Jones

2

Comparing the United States with Nations and Individual States in the Percentage of Young Adult Degree Attainment (Ages 25-34)

U.S. States % OECD CountryKorea (69.8)

60 Canada, Japan

Massachusetts 58

Minnesota 56 LithuaniaNew York

New Jersey 54Ireland

52 Australia, United KingdomVirginia, Colorado, North Dakota Luxembourg

New Hampshire, Iowa 50 SwitzerlandPennsylvania, Connecticut, Illinois, Wisconsin, Maryland

Kansas, Nebraska, Washington 48 Norway, Israel, United StatesIceland, Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark

Vermont 46 BelgiumMaine, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Oregon, North Carolina, Utah Slovenia

California, Montana, Missouri 44 France, New Zealand, PolandEstonia, Spain, Greece

Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Indiana 42 LatviaHawaii Finland

Tennessee, Delaware, Georgia 40 AustriaTexas

Arizona, Wyoming, South Carolina 38Kentucky

Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho 36Mississippi Slovak Republic

Oklahoma, Nevada, New Mexico 34 Portugal, Czech RepublicAlaska

West Virginia, Louisiana 32 TurkeyGermany

30 Hungary, Chile*

28Italy

26

24Mexico

22

Source: 2018 OECD Education at a Glance (for year 2017).*most recent data for Chile from 2015; 2017American Community Survey

Educational Attainment of Working Aged Adults Aged 25 to 64 –Wyoming, the US, and the Most Educated State (2017)

6.6

27.926.6

11.9

17.9

9.2

11.4

26.0

21.2

9.0

20.5

11.8

8.0

23.0

16.1

8.0

25.7

19.2

5.2

23.4

27.7

15.6

26.1

19.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Less than HighSchool

High School Some College, NoDegree

Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate,Professional Degree

Wyoming US Most Educated State Best in Category

3Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey; Table B15001

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group –U.S. & Leading OECD Countries, 2017

69

.8

60

.9

60

.4

55

.6

53

.5

52

.0

51

.6

51

.4

50

.1

48

.3

48

.0

47

.8

37

.9

62

.1

63

.1

56

.4

46

.0

53

.2

51

.2

51

.2

48

.1

47

.8

49

.5

56

.1

50

.3

41

.9

39

.6

56

.6

48

.7

32

.1

41

.9

42

.0

42

.6

34

.0

39

.6

40

.6

50

.6

45

.4

41

.8

21

.3

46

.5

41

.1

29

.5

29

.9 33

.8 36

.9

22

.5

32

.4

33

.2

48

.1

42

.0

35

.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

4Source: 2018 OECD Education at a Glance, (for 2017); Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Percent of Residents Ages 25-64 With A High-Quality Certificate or Higher

5

56

.25

5.7

54

.05

3.8

53

.35

2.2

51

.25

1.0

50

.75

0.6

50

.65

0.3

49

.74

9.5

49

.54

8.4

48

.44

8.2

48

.24

8.0

47

.74

7.6

47

.44

6.9

46

.94

6.8

46

.74

6.3

45

.74

5.7

45

.74

5.3

44

.64

4.6

44

.14

4.0

43

.74

3.6

43

.24

3.1

42

.24

2.0

41

.94

1.8

40

.74

0.6

39

.93

7.9

37

.53

4.8

34

.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mas

sach

use

tts

Co

lora

do

Min

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Was

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Certificate-holder data is the best available estimate based on Georgetown CEW updated calculations using SIPP 2008 Wave 12 data (2012) and IPEDS (2014). Found in Stronger Nation 2016 report; Data for percent of residents with an associates and higher from U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey; Table B15001

Adults Aged 25-64 with an Associates Degree or Higher

6

Northwest38.6%

West46.3%

Southwest32.4%

East34.6%

Central35.2%

Northeast35.2%

Southeast47.6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-17 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates; Table B15001.

Percent of Adults Aged 25-64 with an Associates or Higher by County, 2013-17

7Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-17 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates; Table B15001.

Percent of Adults Aged 25-64 with a Bachelors or Higher by County, 2013-17

8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-17 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates; Table B15001.

Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Underrepresented Minorities, Ages 25-64, 2016

9

4.2 4.4 4.6

8.2

10

.21

0.2 11

.41

1.7

11

.8 13

.01

3.1 14

.11

4.4

14

.61

4.9 15

.81

5.9 1

7.5 18

.21

8.5

18

.81

9.2

19

.21

9.8

19

.81

9.8

19

.9 21

.1 22

.22

2.3 2

3.7

24

.02

4.3

24

.52

5.0 25

.72

5.8

26

.32

6.3

26

.32

6.4

26

.52

6.6

26

.7 27

.52

7.7 28

.5 29

.3 30

.4 31

.33

3.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40N

ew H

amp

shir

eW

est

Vir

gin

iaM

ain

eV

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on

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Mo

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Geo

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Ind

ian

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Wyo

min

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Nat

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sin

Was

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zon

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ska

Min

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ota

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ey

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lan

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chu

sett

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ska

Co

nn

ecti

cut

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do

Cal

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rnia

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample.

Per Capita Income by County, 2017(Teton County excluded)

10Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

11

Wyoming Projected Change in Population, 2016-2040

Source: http://eadiv.state.wy.us/pop/

Wyoming Change in Population by County, 2016-2040

12

13,471

9,867

6,499

5,0444,660

3,670 3,557

2,2791,888

1,5111,326 1,175

835 744400 302 274 130

-49 -79 -193

18,524

-265


Wyoming Change in Population by Age Group, 2016-2040

13

1,480

-218 -507

5,715

16,018

-4,743

59,002

<15 15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 >65


Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Year Olds by Education Level, Wyoming, 2012-16

391

14

1,086

-49

40

137

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Less than HighSchool

High SchoolGraduate

Some College, NoDegree

Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-16 American Community Survey (ACS) Five-Year Public Use Microdata Sample.14

Net migration: 1,619

Migration Churn Rate Estimate 22-64 (Per 1,000 Population), Associates Degree & Above

15

19

6.5

14

5.0

12

9.3

12

7.2

11

8.4

11

5.2

10

9.0

10

8.0

10

7.7

10

7.5

10

6.5

10

6.4

10

3.1

10

1.6

99

.59

8.2

97

.79

4.8

94

.69

4.5

92

.59

0.9

88

.88

6.0

85

.18

4.8

82

.48

2.4

82

.18

1.7

79

.67

7.8

77

.37

5.5

74

.47

3.8

73

.27

2.0

71

.47

0.9

69

.76

9.4

68

.36

8.3

65

.56

3.5

61

.26

0.6

59

.55

9.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200A

lask

aW

yom

ing

Haw

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Nev

ada

Rh

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De

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Note: Migration Churn Rate is the sum of in-migrants and out-migrants relative to 1,000 state population (population base excludes in-migrants for this calculation).Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-16 American Community Survey (ACS) Five-Year Public Use Microdata Sample.

Percent of Population with an Associates Degree Who Were Born In-State, 2016

76

.57

4.0

73

.37

3.3

72

.77

2.4

70

.06

9.2

68

.76

6.9

66

.56

5.9

65

.86

5.7

64

.16

4.1

63

.76

0.4

59

.05

8.0

57

.95

5.7

55

.15

4.4

53

.85

3.4

53

.25

2.1

52

.05

1.8

51

.65

1.0

49

.34

9.3

47

.04

6.6

46

.04

4.4

43

.94

3.8

41

.24

0.9

39

.43

8.0

37

.63

5.4

34

.32

6.9

26

.32

4.1

12

.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0M

ich

igan

Iow

aP

enn

sylv

ania

Oh

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nec

ticu

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tah

Nat

ion

Texa

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nd

Sou

th C

aro

lina

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alif

orn

iaO

klah

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aN

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lina

Haw

aii

Ver

mo

nt

Ten

nes

see

Idah

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erse

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tan

aG

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iaN

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nia

Was

hin

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rego

nW

yom

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Mar

ylan

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ew H

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rad

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na

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ska

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ada

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. 16

Percent of Population with a Bachelor’s Degree Who Were Born In-State, 2016

68

.36

8.0

66

.76

6.0

65

.36

4.9

63

.76

1.4

59

.95

9.0

58

.95

8.5

58

.15

7.8

55

.35

5.2

55

.15

4.1

54

.05

3.8

53

.45

0.7

50

.05

0.0

47

.54

6.7

45

.94

5.6

45

.54

3.9

43

.84

3.3

42

.04

0.0

39

.93

8.0

34

.73

4.0

33

.53

2.1

32

.03

2.0

31

.53

0.9

28

.32

7.4

27

.32

2.2

20

.92

0.0

11

.7

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0Lo

uis

ian

aM

ich

igan

Oh

ioIo

wa

Pen

nsy

lvan

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isco

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Vir

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om

aSo

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New

Yo

rkA

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lan

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Kan

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nH

awai

iC

on

nec

ticu

tTe

nn

esse

eM

on

tan

aN

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alif

orn

iaN

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h C

aro

lina

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th C

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Idah

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coW

ash

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on

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Mar

ylan

dO

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nV

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on

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Vir

gin

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ew H

amp

shir

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olo

rad

oW

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ska

Flo

rid

aA

rizo

na

Nev

ada

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. 17

Student Pipeline, 2016For every 100 9th graders, how many graduate from high school?

18

91

90

89

89

89

88

88

88

88

88

88

88

87

87

87

87

87

87

86

86

86

86

86

86

85

85

85

84

83

83

83

82

82

82

81

81

80

80

79

79

79

79

78

78

78

77

77

76

74

71

69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Iow

aN

ew J

ers

ey

Ala

bam

aTe

xas

Neb

rask

aW

isco

nsi

nN

ew H

amp

shir

eK

en

tuck

yTe

nn

esse

eM

isso

uri

Ve

rmo

nt

Mai

ne

Mas

sach

use

tts

Co

nn

ecti

cut

Ind

ian

aM

aryl

and

No

rth

Dak

ota

We

st V

irgi

nia

Mo

nta

na

Kan

sas

Vir

gin

iaD

ela

war

eIll

ino

isN

ort

h C

aro

lina

Ark

ansa

sP

en

nsy

lvan

iaU

tah

Sou

th D

ako

taR

ho

de

Isla

nd

Nat

ion

Okl

aho

ma

Cal

ifo

rnia

Min

nes

ota

Haw

aii

Mis

siss

ipp

iO

hio

Sou

th C

aro

lina

Mic

hig

anW

yom

ing

New

Yo

rkId

aho

Geo

rgia

Was

hin

gto

nFl

ori

da

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isia

na

Ari

zon

aC

olo

rad

oA

lask

aO

rego

nN

evad

aN

ew M

exic

o

Sources: U.S. Department of Education, Office of Elementary and Secondary Education, Consolidated State Performance Report, 2014–15. See Digest of Education Statistics 2016, table 219.46; WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016 (Extraction 12-28-16); NCES, IPEDS Fall 2016 Residence & Migration Enrollment File; ef2016_c Provisional Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS Fall 2016 Retention Rate File; ef2016_d Provisional Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2015-16 Graduation Rate File; gr2016 Provisional Release Data File.

Student Pipeline, 2016For every 100 9th graders, how many enter college?

19

64

64

64

63

61

60

60

59

59

58

57

57

57

57

56

56

55

55

55

54

54

53

53

53

53

53

52

52

52

51

51

51

51

51

50

50

50

48

48

48

47

46

46

45

42

40

40

40

36

35

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Co

nn

ecti

cut

Mas

sach

use

tts

New

Je

rse

yM

issi

ssip

pi

Ten

nes

see

De

law

are

Iow

aA

lab

ama

Vir

gin

iaN

ebra

ska

Sou

th D

ako

taM

inn

eso

taN

ort

h D

ako

taN

ew Y

ork

Mar

ylan

dK

ansa

sN

ort

h C

aro

lina

Sou

th C

aro

lina

Lou

isia

na

Illin

ois

New

Ham

psh

ire

Ark

ansa

sIn

dia

na

Pe

nn

sylv

ania

Ke

ntu

cky

Nat

ion

Rh

od

e Is

lan

dC

alif

orn

iaW

isco

nsi

nM

isso

uri

Texa

sM

ich

igan

Geo

rgia

We

st V

irgi

nia

Haw

aii

Oh

ioM

ain

eFl

ori

da

Okl

aho

ma

New

Mex

ico

Mo

nta

na

Co

lora

do

Ve

rmo

nt

Wyo

min

gA

rizo

na

Was

hin

gto

nN

evad

aU

tah

Ore

gon

Idah

oA

lask

a


Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2016 Residency and Migration File; ef2016c Provisional Release Data File. Note: Actual high school graduate numbers for 2016 not available from NCES Common Core of Data. WICHE High School Graduate Projections for 2016 substituted.

Percent of High School Graduates Directly Out of High School Going Directly to College, 2016

20

78

%7

4%

73

%7

1%

71

%7

1%

70

%7

0%

70

%6

9%

68

%6

8%

68

%6

6%

66

%6

5%

65

%6

5%

65

%6

5%

64

%6

4%

63

%6

3%

63

%6

3%

62

%6

2%

62

%6

2%

62

%6

1%

61

%6

0%

60

%5

9%

59

%5

9%

58

%5

8%

57

%5

6%

56

%5

5%

54

%5

3%

51

%4

9%

47

%4

4%

44

%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Mis

siss

ipp

iC

on

nec

ticu

tM

assa

chu

sett

sN

ew Y

ork

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First Time Freshmen, Directly out of High School

21

43.8%

47.1%

24.8%

36.4%

35.3%

31.8%49.3%

22

Region # Enrolled UW

#Enrolled CC

Total % Enrolled UW

% Enrolled CC

Central 84 237 321 26% 74%

East 77 58 135 57% 43%

Northeast 127 298 425 30% 70%

Northwest 78 135 213 37% 63%

Southeast 244 300 544 45% 55%

Southwest 120 277 397 30% 70%

West 67 116 183 37% 63%

Total 805 1,421 2,226 36% 64%

Enrollment of First Time Freshmen, Directly Out of High School, by Region 2017-18

Total Enrollment by Region, 2017-18

23

Region # Enrolled UW

#Enrolled CC

Total % Enrolled UW

% Enrolled CC

Central 707 2,588 3,295 21% 79%

East 477 1,681 2,158 22% 78%

Northeast 788 3,238 4,026 20% 80%

Northwest 516 1,524 2,040 25% 75%

Southeast 1949 3,264 5,213 37% 63%

Southwest 863 3,227 4,090 21% 79%

West 495 1,607 2,102 24% 76%

Unknown 566 264 830 68% 32%

Total 6,361 17,393 23,754 27% 73%

Student Pipeline, 2016For every 100 9th graders, how many are still enrolled sophomore year?

24

49

49

48

46

43

43

43

42

41

41

40

40

40

40

40

39

39

39

38

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Student Pipeline, 2016For every 100 9th graders, how many graduate within 150% of program time?

25

36

35

31

31

30

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30

29

29

29

28

27

27

27

27

27

27

26

26

26

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24

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21

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20

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18

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16

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Wyoming and National Unemployment Rates, 2008-2017

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Wyoming US

26Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsNote: Not Seasonally Adjusted

Average Annual Employment by Industry, 2012-16

27

2.1

%

10

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6.2

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%

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10%

12%

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Wyoming Nation

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-16 American Community Survey Five-Year Public Use Microdata Sample.Note: Figures aggregated for employed persons age 25-64 with positive wage earnings.

Job Openings By Occupation and Education Level (In Thousands) Wyoming, 2020

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, Recovery: Projections of jobs and education requirements through 2020; 2013.Note: The Georgetown Center describes “Some College, No Degree” as an amorphous category in which some people with high school diplomas self-report their highest level of education in the some college category. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics defines “Some College, No Degree” as the “achievement of a high school diploma or equivalent plus the completion of one or more postsecondary courses that did not result in a degree or award.” It is generally accepted that this category includes completion of 1 and 2 year certificates.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Managerialand

ProfessionalOffice

STEM SocialSciences

CommunityServices &

Arts

Education HealthcareProfessional& Technical

HealthcareSupport

Food &PersonalServices

Sales &Office

Support

Blue Collar

Less than High School High School Diploma Some College, No Degree

Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate degree

28

Largest Employment by Occupation, 2014 (new data should be available in the next month)

29

NorthwestOffice & Administrative SupportConstruction & ExtractionFood Preparation & Serving Related

NortheastConstruction & ExtractionOffice & Administrative SupportTransportation & Materials Moving

Central-SoutheastOffice & Administrative SupportFood Preparation & Serving RelatedConstruction & Extraction

Cheyenne MSAOffice & Administrative SupportTransportation & Materials Moving

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Casper MSAOffice & Administrative SupportConstruction & ExtractionSales & Related

SouthwestConstruction & ExtractionOffice & Administrative SupportFood Preparation & Serving Related

Source: doe.state.wy.us

Largest Employment Growth by Occupation, 2014-24(new data should be available in the next month)

30

NorthwestFood Preparation & Serving RelatedOffice & Administrative SupportSales & Related

NortheastFood Preparation & Serving RelatedConstruction & ExtractionSales & Related

Central-SoutheastFood Preparation & Serving RelatedOffice & Administrative SupportSales & Related

Cheyenne MSAFood Preparation & Serving RelatedOffice & Administrative SupportTransportation & Materials Moving

Casper MSAFood Preparation & Serving RelatedOffice & Administrative SupportSales & Related

SouthwestFood Preparation & Serving RelatedSales & RelatedOffice & Administrative Support

Source: doe.state.wy.us

Change in Population by Age Group, 2016-2040Central Region

31

1,3101,773

-623

461

3,198

412

6,941

<15 15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 >65


Change in Population by Age Group, 2016-2040East Region

32

947

111

749

1,357

-137

-2,557

3,889

<15 15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 >65


Change in Population by Age Group, 2016-2040Northeast Region

33

-458 -513

4551,118

3,191

531

10,947

<15 15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 >65


Change in Population by Age Group, 2016-2040Northwest Region

34

-75

-935

624

1,594

464

-2,119

4,494

<15 15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 >65


Change in Population by Age Group, 2016-2040Southeast Region

35

1,792915

-861

1,611

6,496

-406

14,022

<15 15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 >65


Change in Population by Age Group, 2016-2040Southwest Region

36

-3,300-2,366

-121 -392

809

-796

12,631

<15 15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 >65


Change in Population by Age Group, 2016-2040West Region

37

86

797

-730

-34

1,997

192

6,078

<15 15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 >65


Region Definitions

38

As established for the project. DOE (Occupations Data) Regions

wyoming strategic planning meeting · educational attainment of working aged adults aged 25 to 64...

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