xi jinping’s foreign and domestic policy agendas diplomatic academy of vietnam hanoi, 25 november...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas
Diplomatic Academy of VietnamHanoi, 25 November 2015
David AraseProfessor of International Politics
Hopkins-Nanjing CenterJohns Hopkins SAIS
![Page 2: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Grand strategy 1979-2008• 3rd Plenum 11th CC
(1978)– CCP faces crisis of
legitimacy– Defend Party rule– Seeks 4 Modernizations– Reform & Opening Up
• Socialism is basic• From plan to market• “Cross the river by feeling
for stones”
– Joins US-led international order• A dangerous step
• Foreign policy principles– 冷静观察 leng3jing4guan1cha2-– Calmly survey the situation
– 沉着应付 - chen3zhuo2ying4fu4- Meet change with patience and confidence
– 稳住阵脚 – wen3zhu4zhen4jiao3
Secure our footing
– 韬光养晦 – tao1guang1yang3hui3 – Conceal capabilities
– 善于守拙 – shan4yu2shou3zhuo2 Keep a low profile
– 决不当头 – jue2bu4dang1tou2 - Never become a leader
– 有所作为 – you3suo3zuo4wei2 – Score some achievements.
![Page 3: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Foreign policy themes after Deng
• Jiang Zemin (1992-2002)– Peace, development, & national interest
• Hu Jintao (2002-2012)– Peaceful rise – Cooperation– Promote multipolar order
• Xi Jinping (2012-2022?) – 中华民族伟大复兴 Great rejuvenation of Chinese nation
• Global predominance by 2049
– 新型大国关系 New type of major power relations• Establish bipolar order now
– 命运共同体 Community of Common Destiny in Asia• Establish China-centered Asian regional order now
![Page 4: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
TRANSITION TO A NEW ERA2008-2012
Power transition from unipolarity to bipolarity
![Page 5: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
US suffers setbacks; China looks to make gains
• Wall Street financial crisis 2008-2009• Problematic growth and fiscal outlook for US• US-China “Strategic & Economic Dialog” July 2009• China expands its borders
– Extends control in South China Sea– Seeks control over Senkaku Islands– Renews claim over Arunachal Pradesh
• China signals desire for strategic predominance in Asia– USS Impeccable incident in S China Sea 2009– Directly challenges US allies 2012
• Scarborough Shoal (Philippines)• Senkaku Islands (Japan)
– ADIZ (November 2013)– CM Cowpens incident (December 2013)– Declares S. China Sea fishery jurisdiction (December 2013)– Begins island construction in SCS
![Page 6: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
China demands accommodation as great power from 2012
![Page 7: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Despite its success, China is unhappy
![Page 8: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Rising nationalism
![Page 9: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The US will account for 30 per cent of global military spending by 2021; Asia will spend more at 31 per cent (IHS Janes, 26 June 2013)
![Page 10: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Military Spending in Asia
![Page 11: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
SE Asia & India border disputes
![Page 12: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Yellow Sea & East China Sea conflicts
![Page 13: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Freedom of navigation• March 2009, USNS
Impeccable obstructed when using sonar over 70 miles distant from Hainan Island
• Dec 2013, CM Cowpens obstructed by PLAN ship
• China asserts a right to exclude foreign naval vessels from claimed EEZ
• But EEZ only gives economic rights under UNCLOS
![Page 14: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
XI JINPING’S NEW GREAT POWER DIPLOMACY
Asserting Chinese power and interests to change the international order piece by piece
![Page 15: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
XJP: Big Vision
• Consolidate a bipolar order today• Establish right to change and manage Asian
security, norms & institutions according to Chinese interests
• Set the stage for Eurasian dominance
![Page 16: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Core interests 核心利益 • Defend the absolute authority of the CCP• Defend sovereignty and territorial integrity of
the Chinese state• Uninterrupted development of China's
economy. • Also, note "the principled bottom line" ( 原则
底线 yuanze dixian) means that China will not sacrifice its core principles to maintain peace.
![Page 17: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
A “new kind of great power relationship”• 新兴大国关系 • Xi introduces in February 2012
– Discussed with Obama in June 2013 at informal summit
• Structural realism– Bipolar system structure– Great powers create
international order– Great powers “balance”
• They do not do “G-2”
– Hegemonic cycle• China seeks to replace US
hegemonic power and hegemonic order?
• Power transition theory?
• “Win-win” relations– Concede Asian governance to
China– Asian order and Western order
coexist peacefully
![Page 18: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
“Community of Common Destiny” in Asia
• 命运共同体 • Xi introduces during
October 2013 visit to ASEAN
• Explained at October 2013 High Level Work Conference on Diplomacy toward Surrounding Regions
• Now applies to all countries along the Silk Roads (60+)
• “Win-win" cooperation with neighbors
• OBOR ( 一带一路 ) trans-Eurasian infrastructure corridors
• Chinese border areas as gateways to neighboring countries;
• Tourism, technology, education, and provincial level exchange
• Trade and investment creates a new kind of regional economic integration based on economic dependence on China
• AIIB, New Silk Road Fund, BRICS Bank, and internationalization of the RMB
![Page 19: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
One Belt, One Road一带一路
• Economic infrastructure corridors radiate out from China to access sub region in and around Eurasia
• Land and maritime corridors link up to create a China-centered network for Eurasia
• Large scale trade, investment, aid agenda– “South-South cooperation”– Co-prosperity sphere led by Chinese economy growth locomotive– Asymmetric interdependence gives China power– Economic dependence leads to political compliance?
• Beijing sells OBOR multilaterally by subregion• Beijing manages OBOR bilaterally
– Country by country agreements, project by project approval process
![Page 20: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
New Asian Security Concept
• Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building in Asia summit meeting, 2014
• Asian security is exclusive concern of Asian nations– Non-Asian powers have limited role
• Asian security is based on peaceful economic cooperation and development– Traditional security issues not a core concern– Traditional military alliances have no role
![Page 21: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Overall great power vision
• China as pre eminent power in Eurasia• A China-centric Asian order– Dependence on Chinese economy– Hub and spoke bilateralism– Managed by Chinese power & interests– Use carrots and sticks (“reciprocity”)– Relevance of international law is judged by China
based on its interests• US as “offshore balancer” leading Western world• No compromising China’s core interests
![Page 22: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
外拓
![Page 24: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Control strategic space in E. Asia• Control surrounding seas
– Civilian fleets as vanguard– Coast guard as defender of
claims– PLA deters resistance to
unilateral coercive acts– Display counter-
intervention capabilities• Blue water control
tomorrow?• Crisis initiation• Challenge/Response• Active defense ( 积极防御 )
– Early offensive defense
![Page 25: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
China’s planned high speed railway network
![Page 27: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
China-Bay of Bengal corridor
![Page 28: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
BCIM Economic Corridor
![Page 29: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
One Belt
![Page 30: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Belt & Road
![Page 31: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
What does great power status mean to Xi Jinping?
• A great power has the right to shape the international order– “Might makes right”– Dominance of neighboring neighbors and regions
• Can China revise the present order?– System level factors
• Position in International structure• Geopolitical setting
– Unit-level factors• Identity• Institutions• Leadership• Interests
![Page 32: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Great power success
• Material capacity– Land/resources– Population– GDP– Technology– Military capacity
• Sound strategy– China depends on
continuing strong growth & development
• International leadership– Ability to set norms &
attract followers• Hard power?• Soft power?• “Smart power”?
– Avoid counter-balancing
– Domestic strength?• State capacity• Legitimacy• Stability• Attractive culture &
society
![Page 33: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
XI JINPING’S DOMESTIC AGENDAEstablishing China as the dominant great power in Eurasia
![Page 34: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation
• 中华民族伟大复兴 • Strengthen Party & centralized state
– Concentrate power in Xi’s hands• Rich nation, strong military• Deepen reform to sustain China’s rise
– Economy• Rely more on the market to allocate resources,
discipline economic decision makers
– Politics: More disciplined and responsive Party• Judicial reform• Party discipline & inspection commission reform
– Culture: Socialism, Nationalism, Confucianism– Society: Social welfare, fairness, justice
![Page 35: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream”
• Material well being by 2020
• A just and moral domestic order by 2049– 大同
• Informed by Confucian/socialist values
• A new era of global preeminence from 2049– 天下
• An international normative order to China’s liking
![Page 36: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Xi Jinping promises restored national, cultural pride to Chinese people
• Domestic Agenda– Attack sources of domestic weakness
• Western values?
– Legitimacy strategy• Cultural/Historical identity• Patriotism
– Improve governance via “Four Comprehensives”• Build modern society• Deepen reform• Govern according to law• Strictly govern the Party
![Page 37: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Domestic weakness• Authoritarian rule
– Party (hereditary?) ruling class
– Unaccountable dictatorship
– Performance legitimacy – Social controls
• Ideology• Information control• Hukou ( 户口) system• Party controls all
institutions• No autonomous civil
society
• Contradictions– Party grows apart from the
people– Unaccountable power =
structural corruption and abuse of power
– Growth imperative impedes structural reform
– Angry or apathetic people• National victimhood• Undeserved rewards go to the
elite• Intrusive controls• More social inequality and less
social security• Harsh punishments
– Fear of “color revolution”
![Page 38: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
STRENGTHENING DOMESTIC STABILITY & LEGITIMACY
Xi is fighting to maintain the values & institutions of the Chinese Communist Party against the threat of the Western liberalism
![Page 39: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Background• At 18th Party Congress, 35 years since Deng Xiaoping’s reform & opening up
– No more easy reform ideas (structural reforms now unavoidable for progress)– Corruption out of control– Social discontent– Middle income trap
• Jiang Zemin’s “Three Represents” (三个代表)– Peasants– “Advanced productive forces”
• Leads to structural corruption?
– “Advanced culture” • Hu Jintao’s “scientific concept of development” and “harmonious society”
– Pragmatic materialism to foster “harmony”– Maintain stability (维护稳定)– But collective leadership principle, inner-party democracy, and weak personal
authority permits Party fragmentation, ideological pluralization, loss of Party discipline, and rampant corruption
• Xi Jinping?
![Page 40: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Xi Jinping’s political footing
• Xi Jinping is a “Party Princeling” ( 红二代)• Only 7 years in top leadership before 2012• Power base is personal, not institutional– Shaanxi, Fuzhou, Wenzhou, Shanghai– PLA connections
• Must attract followers, discourage rivals• Cannot offer wealth & privilege if he fights corruption• Therefore, he relies heavily on power of ideas and
fear of punishment
![Page 41: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Xi Jinping’s allies & confidants• Wang Qishan (PBSC)• Li Zhanshu (Chief staff; CC
Gen. Office head)• Ding Xuexiang
– Personal secretary• Wang Huning (PB)• Yang Jiechi (For. Pol.)• Wang Shaojun
– Central Security Bureau• Gen. Liu Yuan• Liu He (Econ adviser)• Yu Zhengsheng (PBSC)
![Page 42: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Xi’s Agenda: Reform to rejuvenate• 3rd Plenum, 60 Point Comprehensive Reform Program• Strengthen Party & centralized state
– Party rectification campaign– Concentrate power in Xi’s hands
• Rich state, strong military– Strengthen key state owned enterprise sectors – Strengthen military and related industrial base– Internationalize the RMB
• Deepen reform to improve governance– Economy
• Rely more on the market to allocate resources, discipline economic decision makers
– Politics: More disciplined and responsive Party• Judicial reform• Party discipline & inspection commission reform
– Culture: Defend Socialism & Nationalism– Society: Social welfare, fairness, justice, control
• China Dream– Use historical and cultural myths to “re-create” a Sino-centric “community
of common destiny” in Asia
![Page 43: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Xi’s “Four Comprehensives”
• Comprehensively build a moderately prosperous society– Social safety net & hukou, educational & one-child policies
• Comprehensively deepen reform– Financial & monetary reform
• Comprehensively govern the nation according to law – Professionalize court system & strengthen legal system
• Comprehensively apply strict discipline to govern the Party– Discipline inspection system & party regulations
![Page 44: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Xi employs four strategies
• Combat corruption– Also: eliminate rivals, weaken factions
• Combat liberal, pluralist, democratic norms– Strengthen ideological & institutional discipline
• Centralize decision making– “Collective leadership” 集体领导 reform?
• Collective decision-making is not democratic, pluralistic, or feudal decision making
– Democratic centralism• Politburo decision-making is deliberative & collective, but more unified
under Xi Jinping’s leadership
– Improve supervision of lower level authorities• Tighten discipline mechanisms in economy, state, society &
party
![Page 45: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
COMBAT CORRUPTIONEliminate rivals
![Page 46: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Striking Tigers and Flies• Jiang Zemin killed 1 tiger
– former Beijing party chief Chen Xitong
• Hu Jintao killed 1 tiger– former Shanghai party boss
Chen Liangyu
• Xi Jinping has arrested many– Bo Xilai (PB)– Zhou Yongkang (PB)– Ling Jihua ( 团派 )– Gu Junshan– Xu Caihou (CMC)– Guo Boxiong (CMC)
• In 2013– 19 senior state leaders
arrested– 20 SOE CEOs arrested
• PLA today– 42 senior military officers
purged– Commands of regions,
departments, and services shuffled
– PLA structural reform– Generational change
![Page 47: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
IDEOLOGICAL ORTHODOXYRoot out liberalism, pluralism, democracy
![Page 48: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Harmonize ideology & culture• Four Cardinal Principles (especially 1-3)
– the Socialist Road– the People’s Democratic Dictatorship– the leading role of the Party– Marxism-Leninism-Mao Zedong Thought
• Party members do self-criticism; attend criticism sessions; study sessions; mass-line activities
• Ideological monitoring of academic world– Universities– Think tanks
• Cut back foreign programing in mass media• Values promotion
– Confucian, socialist, patriotic values• Attack liberal tendencies
– Over 300 human rights lawyers detained or questioned
![Page 49: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
CENTRALIZE DECISION MAKINGPolitburo is a collective leadership—but under Xi Jinping’s leadership
![Page 50: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Leading Small Groups2008-2012• Finance & Economy
– Wen Jiabao
• Politics and Law – Zhou Yongkang
• National Security – Hu Jintao
• Foreign Affairs – Hu Jintao
• Hong Kong & Macao – Xi Jinping
• Taiwan Affairs – Hu Jintao
• Propaganda & Ideology – Li Changchun
• Party-Building – Xi Jinping
2012-present• Finance & Economy
– Xi Jinping
• Politics and Law – ?
• National Security – ?
• Foreign Affairs – Xi Jinping
• Taiwan Affairs – Xi Jinping
• Hong Kong & Macao – Zhang Dejiang
• Tibet Affairs– Yu Zhengshang
• Xinjiang Affairs– Yu Zhengshang
• Propaganda & Ideology – Liu Yunshan
• United Front– Yu Zhengsheng?
• Party-Building – Liu Yunshan
• Comprehensivly Deepening Reform– Xi Jinping
• National Security Commission– Xi Jinping
• Internet Security and Informatization– Xi Jinping
• One Belt, One Road– ?
![Page 51: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
CC General Office
• Over 300 officials• Information clearing house and coordination
center• Support National Security Commission and
other LSGs• Given Party policy planning and policy
research functions under Xi
![Page 52: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
TIGHTEN DISCIPLINEBetter top-down control and lower-level accountability
![Page 53: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Strengthen rules & punishments
Society• Internet misuse laws• Social credit score system• Cameras & face-recognition
technology• Unauthorized churches
demolished• Protesters & demonstrators
punished• NGO Law
– All civil society groups must have party supervision
Party• Central Commission for Discipline
Inspection– Oct 2015: New Disciplinary Rules– http://news.xinhuanet.com/legal/2015-10/21/c_1116897567_9.ht
m
– Party rules are stricter than laws– Rules apply even to Politburo
members
• Avoid– Hedonism– Bureaucratism– Extravagance– Empty talk
• Party recruitment is more tightly controlled
![Page 54: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Conclusion
![Page 55: Xi Jinping’s Foreign and Domestic Policy Agendas Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Hanoi, 25 November 2015 David Arase Professor of International Politics](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062315/5697c0101a28abf838ccb147/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Challenges are formidable• Slowing economic growth (> 6%?)• Total public debt: 125% of GDP (2008) -> 250% (2015) • Population aging
– Related pension and medical care obligations• Declining export competitiveness requires structural fix• Energy sufficiency?• Environmental deterioration• Food & fresh water sufficiency• Social cohesion (class and ethnic divisions)• Political legitimacy
– Urban unrest is growing• Geopolitical challenges
– Border regions expose China to risk– Maritime dominance is unlikely– No strong allies
• Actual quality of military forces?• Ability to lead global society in science, business, society, politics?