xp presidentialpoll round 7 2018_07_01.pdf · 2018. 7. 11. · 5% 5% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%...

XP PresidentialPoll–Round 7

July, 2018

2

Political Analysis

Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register#May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018

May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - -June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018

XP Presidential Polls

XP Presidential Poll - Details

Conducted by:

Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)

Sample:

1000 interviews/each week

Coverage:

National

Method:

Phone call interviews

Margin of Error:

1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p.

3

Political Analysis

GENDER REGIONMALE 48% NORTH 8%FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%

AGE SOUTHEAST 43%16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%18 TO 34 YO 33% MIDWEST 7%35 TO 54 YO 40% TYPE OF CITY+55 YO 27% CAPITAL TOWNS 23%

OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 16%WORKING 61% COUNTRY TOWNS 61%NOT WORKING 39% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 35%E CLASS (< 1 MW) 21% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 23%D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 29% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 14%C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 35% > 500.000 HAB 28%B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 12% RELIGIONA CLASS (> 20 MW) 3% CATHOLIC 60%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 23% EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 8%ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 7% SPIRITTUALISM 4%MIDDLE SCHOOL 26% ADVENTITST 1%HIGH SCHOOL 46% OTHER 5%HIGHER EDUCATION 21% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%

VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)

Voter profile: current week distribution

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

4

Political AnalysisHighlights

Jair Bolsonaro remains the leader in all three scenarios in which Lula isn’t considered. He

increased one point, within the margin of error, on all first-round scenarios. On second-round

scenarios, Bolsonaro is technically tied to Lula (33% to 39%), Geraldo Alckmin (34% to 32%),

Marina Silva (33% to 36%) and Ciro Gomes (34% to 31%).

Other candidates had little or no change in first-round and second-round scenarios.

The electorate was asked how they get informed about the election. TV was mentioned

the most (35%), ahead of Internet and social media (20%). Jair Bolsonaro voters are the most

influenced by internet and social media (30%). Ciro Gomes and Marina Silva voters are the

most influenced by TV (44% and 43%), a problem for her, since she isn’t expected to have a

large time to do campaign on television.

49% of voters declared they decided who they`d vote for in 2014 after the campaign started –

10% after TV electoral programs started, 8% in the few days before elections, 19% after the

last debate and 13% on election day. 41% declared they decided before the campaign started.

The electorate was asked again what would be their second choice if they could`t vote for the

chosen candidate. Jair Bolsonaro voters remain the least likely to vote for other candidates -

62% of them say they would vote blank, null or don’t know. This rate was 50% last week.

5

Political Analysis

36%

28%

14%12%

2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%

IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? (SPONTANEOUS)

Voting Intention - Spontaneous

JulyWeek 1


33%

42%

37% 37%

40% 39%

36%

33%

19%

25%

28%27%

28% 28%

13%

18%

14%13% 13% 13%

14%

11%12%

14%

12%13% 12%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5* Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1

Dont Know/Didn't Answer

None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Lula

6

Political Analysis

29%

23%

12%10%

8%

5% 5%

2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE____, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?

Scenario 1 – PT presents no candidate


JulyWeek 1

29%

27%

30%29% 29%

31%29%

22%

25%

23%22% 22% 22%

23%

13% 13% 13% 13% 13%12% 12%

9% 9% 9%8% 8% 7%

8%

11%9%

11% 11% 10% 10% 10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Marina

Ciro

Alckmin

7

Political Analysis

27%

23%

13%

10%8%

5% 5%

2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%


Scenario 2 – with Fernando Haddad (PT)


JulyWeek 1

29%

24%

27% 27%28% 28%

27%

22%

26%

22%21% 21%

22%23%

13%14%

13% 13%14%

12%13%

9% 9%8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

11%10%

11%10% 10%

11%10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Marina

Ciro

Alckmin

8

Political Analysis

28%

20%

16%

9%7% 7%

5%3%

1% 1% 1% 1% 0%


30%

28%

30%29%

28%29% 28%

23%

25%

20%19% 19%

19%20%

17%

13%

15%16%

18%18% 16%

6% 5% 6% 6%5%

6%

7%8%

10% 10% 10% 10%9% 9%9% 8%

7% 7% 7% 7%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Lula

Marina

Alckmin

Ciro

Scenario 3 – with Lula (PT)


JulyWeek 1

9

Political Analysis

24%

21%

11% 11%

8%7%

5%4%

2% 2%1% 1% 1%


Scenario 4 – Haddad with Lula’s support


JulyWeek 1

25%

19%

24%23%

24%

21%

20%19%

20%21%

11% 11%12%

11% 11%11% 10% 11% 10%

11%

8% 8% 8% 7% 7%

9%9% 8% 8% 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3 Jun Wk4 Jul Wk1

None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Fernando Haddad,supported by Lula

Marina

Alckmin

Ciro

10

Political Analysis

24% 25%

12%

7%8%

4%

6% 5%4%

3%2%

1% 0%

29%

24%

10%

7% 7%5% 5%

4% 4%2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T END UP IN THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?

Second option


11

Political AnalysisSecond option


FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA

JAIR BOLSONARO

GERALDO ALCKMIN

MARINA SILVA

CIRO GOMES

ÁLVARO DIAS

UNDECIDED

ÁLVARO DIAS 4% 6% 8% 3% 11% 0% 0%CIRO GOMES 18% 4% 16% 14% 0% 6% 0%FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 1% 5% 16% 10% 0% 0%FLÁVIO ROCHA 2% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%GERALDO ALCKMIN 5% 11% 0% 14% 11% 21% 0%GUILHERME BOULOS 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 1% 3% 4% 5% 1% 2% 0%JAIR BOLSONARO 6% 0% 12% 11% 7% 19% 0%MANUELA D'ÁVILA 4% 0% 0% 6% 7% 0% 0%MARINA SILVA 22% 10% 14% 0% 26% 13% 0%DIDN'T ANSWER 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0%DON'T KNOW 7% 11% 4% 5% 7% 2% 0%NONE/BLANK/NULL 30% 51% 33% 23% 17% 38% 0%HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN''T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?

2nd Option

Choice in scenario 4

12

Political Analysis

37%

22%

14%

3%4%

0%

4%

1%0%

1%1%

4%

35%

22%

12%

9%

5%

3%

0%

4%

2%1%

0%

2%

33%

27%

17%

8%

5%

4%2% 2% 2%

0% 0% 0% 0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Lula's Vote MigrationScenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4

Vote MigrationMICRODATA SPECIAL


13

Political Analysis

35%36%

40%42%

41% 40%39%

37%38%

35%34%

33% 33% 33%

26%24% 24%

22%

24% 24% 25%

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE:

None/Blank/Null

Lula

Jair Bolsonaro

Don't Know/Didn't Answer

31%

28%30% 29% 28% 29% 28%

15%

25%

20% 19% 19% 19% 20%

47%49%

41% 40% 41% 40% 41%

6% 6%7% 6% 5% 5% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%



None/Blank/Null

Geraldo Alckmin

Fernando Haddad


2nd Round Scenarios


14

Political Analysis

31% 31%

36%

38%36% 35% 36%

35%37%

35%34%

32% 32% 33%

31%30%

28%

25%

28%29% 29%

3% 2% 1%3% 3% 3%

2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



None/Blank/Null

Marina


Bolsonaro

33%

35%34% 33%

32%33%

34%

29%28%

29%

31%

31% 32% 32%

34% 34%

34%

30%

34%33%

32%

4% 3% 3%

5%

3% 3% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%



None/Blank/Null

Geraldo Alckmin


Bolsonaro

2nd Round Scenarios


15

Political Analysis

36%

38%

35%34% 33% 33% 34%

29%29% 33% 33% 32%

32% 31%32%

29% 29%

27%

29%32%

30%

4% 3%2%

7% 6%

3%4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



None/Blank/Null

Ciro


Bolsonaro

32% 30%

29%

31%

32%

32% 33%

27% 27%

32%

30% 30%

32%

31%

38%39%

38%36%

34%32%

34%

3% 4%2% 3%

4% 3% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



None/Blank/Null

Ciro


Alckmin

2nd Round Scenarios


16

Political Analysis

27%

20%

12%

9% 8%

5%4%

LULA BOLSONARO MARINA CIRO ALCKMIN A. DIAS HADDAD

Candidates Strong-Minded Votes- 'Will surely vote for' -

Voter conviction


17

Political Analysis

62%

59% 59% 58% 57%

52%

48%

LULA ALCKMIN CIRO MARINA HADDAD BOLSONARO A. DIAS

Candidates Rejection- 'Wouldn't vote in any scenario' -

Rejection


18

Political Analysis

34%

27%

12% 12%

9%

5%

1%

A. DIAS HADDAD CIRO BOLSONARO ALCKMIN MARINA LULA

Unfamiliarity Rate- 'Don't know enough' -

Unfamiliarity


19

Political Analysis

Would Surely Vote

Could VoteWouldn't

Vote Dont't Know

EnoughDon'tKnow/

Didn'tAnswerTotal

LULA 27% 10% 62% 1% 0% 100%

BOLSONARO 20% 13% 52% 12% 3% 100%

MARINA 12% 24% 58% 5% 0% 100%

CIRO 9% 18% 59% 12% 2% 100%

ALCKMIN 8% 23% 59% 9% 1% 100%

A. DIAS 5% 12% 48% 34% 1% 100%

HADDAD 4% 11% 57% 27% 1% 100%

I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T

VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.

Conviction, recognition and rejection.


JulyWeek 1

20

Political Analysis

30%28%

24%

5% 5% 4%2% 2%

0%

JAIRBOLSONARO

DON'T KNOW LULA MARINA SILVA GERALDOALCKMIN

CIRO GOMES DIDN'TANSWER

ÁLVARO DIAS FERNANDOHADDAD

IN YOUR OPINION, WHO'S GOING TO WIN THE ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT ?

Expectation of Victory


JulyWeek 1

30%

34%32% 31% 31%

30% 30%

26% 25%

19%

26%27% 27% 28%

23%21% 23% 23%

25% 25% 24%

5%4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

5%

7%6% 6% 5%

5%5%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


Don't Know

Lula

Alckmin

Bolsonaro

Marina

21

Political AnalysisDisclaimer

This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).

XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or

severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this

communication.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any

other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that

any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances

or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.

This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a

solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is

confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.

In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results

presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in

violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.

Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in

this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,

políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

xp presidentialpoll round 7 2018_07_01.pdf · 2018. 7. 11. · 5% 5% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%...

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