xxxxxxxxxxx - harriman house · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • sa e • • • • the sterling...

33
xxxxxxxxxxx 1

Upload: others

Post on 19-Oct-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

xxxxxxxxxxx

1

Page 2: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

• • • • Sample • • • •

Page 3: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook

A practical guide for investors and advisers

By Mark Glowrey

• • • • Sample • • • •

Page 4: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

HARRIMAN HOUSE LTD

3A Penns RoadPetersfieldHampshireGU32 2EWGREAT BRITAIN

Tel: +44 (0)1730 233870Email: [email protected]: www.harriman-house.com

First published in Great Britain in 2013

Copyright © Harriman House Ltd

The right of Mark Glowrey to be identified as the author has been asserted inaccordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

9780857190420

British Library Cataloguing in Publication DataA CIP catalogue record for this book can be obtained from the British Library.

All rights reserved; no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrievalsystem, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of thePublisher. This book may not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by wayof trade in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published withoutthe prior written consent of the Publisher.

No responsibility for loss occasioned to any person or corporate body acting orrefraining to act as a result of reading material in this book can be accepted by thePublisher, by the Author, or by the employer of the Author.

Harriman HouseHh

Page 5: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

Contents

Acknowledgements v

About the Author vii

Foreword by Dr Stephen Barber ix

Preface xi

Introduction xiii

PART I: The Basics 1

Chapter 1. What’s a bond? Some key concepts 3

Chapter 2. Why buy bonds? The risks and rewards of investing in bonds 9

Chapter 3. The players in the bond markets 17

Chapter 4. The life cycle of a bond 29

Chapter 5. What happens if interest rates move? 35

Chapter 6. Credit quality and ratings 45

PART II: Bond Markets 63

Chapter 7. Gilts 67

Chapter 8. Index-linked gilts 91

Chapter 9. Domestic and Eurosterling corporate bonds 103

Chapter 10. Zeros, FRNs, convertibles and others 113

Chapter 11. Other types of bonds 133

Chapter 12. Overseas and foreign currency bonds 151

Chapter 13. A walk on the wild side – distressed and illiquid debt 163

Chapter 14. Bond funds 185

iii

Page 6: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

PART III: Practical Matters 197

Chapter 15. Dealing, custody and other mechanics 199

Chapter 16. Building a bond portfolio 221

Chapter 17. Trading the fixed income markets 235

Chapter 18. Trading with technical analysis 251

Chapter 19. Tax 263

The Six Golden Rules of Bond Investing 271

APPENDICES 275

Appendix 1. Sample bond prospectus and notes 277

Appendix 2. Bond maths 287

Appendix 3. Resources for investors 295

Appendix 4. Brokers 303

Appendix 5. RPI/CPI table 307

Appendix 6. Gilt Edged Market Makers 313

Appendix 7. GBP corporate bond prices and yields 317

Appendix 8. Glossary 327

Index 333

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook

iv

Page 7: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

AcknowledgementsI would like to thank my publisher, Harriman House, for their patience inwaiting for this much-delayed book.

A debt of gratitude also goes to Michael Dyson, then working at BarclaysCapital, and Anthony “Bonzo” Lorenzo of Winterflood Securities whostepped up to the plate in 2006 to provide the initial sponsorship for thewww.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk website. This sponsorship in turn wasgenerously continued by the bond teams at BARCAP (Will Hall & GurnaikJohal) and Wins (Oliver Brown and Stacey Parsons), and in due course bymy own employer Canaccord Genuity. I would also like to thank Chris Martinand the eCube technology team for creating the website.

Finally, thank you to Barry, Oliver, Mike and all the contributors to this book,and of course my wife Corina, without whose support it would not have beenpossible.

v

Page 8: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

eBook editionAs a buyer of the print edition of The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbookyou can now download the eBook edition free of charge to read on an eBookreader, your smartphone or your computer. Simply go to:

http://ebooks.harriman-house.com/sterlingbondsor point your smartphone at the QRC below.

You can then register and download your eBook copy of the book.

www.harriman-house.com

Harriman HouseHh

Page 9: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

About the AuthorMark Glowrey is Head of Retail Bond Sales at Canaccord Genuity. Prior to this,he spent over a decade as a director of Stockcube Research Limited, a leadingindependent analysis company. Mark has over twenty-five years’ experience oftrading securities and advising institutional customers, starting his career as adealer on the floor of the London Stock Exchange in the early 1980s beforemoving on to specialise in fixed income securities and treasury products. In2005, he launched Fixed Income Investor (www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk),a resource for private investors in the sterling fixed income market. Mark hasalso contributed to many well-known investment websites and publicationsover the years including the Investors Chronicle.

In his spare time, he can generally be found on the water, up a hill oroccasionally under a paraglider.

The views and opinions expressed in this book are those of the author, andnot those of his employers.

vii

Page 10: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark
Page 11: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

Foreword by Dr Stephen BarberThis is a timely book. Bonds have been rather overlooked by investors inrecent years but this is changing as portfolio strategies adapt to our evolvingneeds and the rapid alterations in global markets. Like many readers, I haveaccumulated a fair collection of investment books on my shelves but none ofthem offer a thorough guide to bonds and fixed income instruments. Isuppose they have not been seen as particularly sexy: after all,notwithstanding the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, it is the equity marketswhich tend to make the news with their “thrills and spills” as the author putsit. And yet, increasingly, bonds are once again playing a crucial role in ourinvestment planning, whatever our objectives might be.

Almost all portfolios can find a place for fixed income, if only as an alternativeto cash. After all, returns are usually better, risk can be managed and it ispossible to buy liquid bonds which can be sold when funds are required. Butthere is no need to stop there. Traditional asset allocation is all aboutbalancing equities with bonds and the inclusion of fixed income is a tried andtested way of reducing portfolio volatility. With so much emphasis on equityreturns, reducing volatility has been the primary function of fixed income.This is the life stages approach to investment management where we acceptgreater risk when younger but attempt to reduce volatility, and thereforeuncertainty, as retirement approaches. As such, those with a longerinvestment horizon have been attracted primarily to shares. Portfolios mustalways be adaptable and over time this changes. During the decade or so priorto retirement, a rebalancing should take place which re-allocates assets awayfrom equities and towards the dependability of bonds. During such aninvestment stage, and beyond into retirement, the predictability of bondsprovide for precisely the sort of returns that are demanded. It is old advicebut good advice.

There is, however, much more to bonds than simply managing portfoliovolatility. Mark Glowrey will surprise many readers of this book when hedemonstrates that in historical analysis, the performance of bonds comparesreally rather favourably to equities. Even pedestrian British governmentbonds, gilts, have outperformed UK shares over the first decade of this newcentury. It is the sort of statistic to make all investors reappraise the merits of

ix

Page 12: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

fixed income. Bonds are not only about lowering risk, they can also be aboutlong term growth and even speculative investments.

Profits are, not unreasonably, what most investors are interested in. But profithas come to mean capital gains. However, even when it comes to shares, mostof our longer term returns will actually derive from income rather than capitalgrowth. As such it is one of those mindsets as investors we must learn toshake. Total returns of income combined with capital are what count and thisis what bonds and fixed income can offer. For the longer term, more passiveinvestor, income is perhaps more readily available from these products thangreat capital gains. Also, depending on one’s tax position, this can be eatenup by income tax. But it is worth considering that you are not liable for capitalgains tax on profits from gilts and increasingly tax efficient wrappers are beingemployed to manage taxation.

The combination of Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) and Self investedPersonal Pensions (SIPPs) have helped to make investment portfolios as taxefficient as possible. Within these wrappers, investment choice is relativelyfree, profits can be taken CGT free and no additional income tax is due. Thismakes the selection of bonds and other fixed income products an even moreattractive proposition and means that investors need not distinguish betweenincome and capital returns.

Not only is this book timely, I cannot think of a bond expert more trusted ormore in tune with the needs of private and professional investors than MarkGlowrey. His analysis is always insightful and always makes for betterinvestment decisions. Those skills are brought to bear in this book and itmakes for a dependable volume of which I for one will take full advantage.

I am sure that a new era of bond investing is upon us and that portfolios ofevery type and size will be all the more successful for the inclusion of fixedincome. You have picked up this book and that means that you see thepotential of this asset class to help fulfil your objectives. I’m convinced thatreaders of this guide will build better portfolios.

Dr Stephen Barber

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook

x

Page 13: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

PrefaceWho this book is for

This book is intended to fill a gap in the plethora of investment guidesavailable for self-directed investors in the UK. Any number of books coveringequities, leveraged trading, funds, ETFs and even alternative investments suchas collectables are available, but to date the coverage of the gilt and corporatebond market has been slim. Of course, there are numerous works intendedfor investment professionals in this field, but these are highly specialisedpublications which typically focus on one aspect of the fixed income market,for instance credit derivatives or portfolio immunization – subjects that arelikely to be of little practical use to an investor who wishes to build a small tomedium size portfolio in the gilt and fixed income markets.

The professional investor also typically has distinct mandates to follow. Thesewill usually be to achieve superior performance to his peers or an index, orto match future liabilities. Such investors will manage their portfoliosaccordingly. The private investor will typically have more straightforwardcriteria; to get a good return on his capital whilst avoiding unacceptable levelsof risk. expense or complexity. This absolute return approach will frequentlymean that the private investor’s selection of individual bonds, and theresulting portfolio may look quite different from that of the private investor.

The book aims to be a practical guide for UK investors and their advisors,enabling those with perhaps £10,000 and up, or a few £100,000s to put theirmoney profitably to work in this rewarding and often overlooked asset class.The book is intended to be first and foremost a practical guide and coversboth bond theory and the more mundane but important subjects of dealing,settlement and day-to-day portfolio operation.

I hope that Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income for the Private Investor will finda ready home on the bookshelves of investors, private-client stockbrokers,wealth managers, trustees and even a few fund managers. Company treasurersand investment bankers, particularly those employed in origination and newissues, may also find it a useful read, if only to remind them that there isdemand from the man on the street, and how best that demand might be met.

xi

Page 14: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

What this book covers

This book covers the theory and the practicalities of investing in the UKgovernment bond (gilt) and sterling corporate bond markets.

Virtually all categories of debt within this subset are dealt with over thefollowing chapters: straight or vanilla bonds (the most common type) throughto convertible, floating rate notes and index-linked issues. Both domestic andEurosterling corporate bonds are covered – investment-grade and sub-investment grade alike. There is also coverage of the subordinated sectorincluding permanent interest bearing shares (PIBS) and enhanced capitalnotes (ECNs), an asset class that already has a strong following amongst theUK private investor community.

Whilst the book is primarily intended for those investors who wish to puttheir money directly to work in the bond market, chapter 14 also covers bondfunds and ETFs (exchange traded funds), comparing these popularinvestment vehicles with the do-it-yourself approach.

It is also worth considering what this book does not cover. As the titlesuggests, the book is intended as guide for UK investors, who will typicallyhave sterling savings to put to work. Whilst chapter 12 deals with overseasand foreign currency bonds, this section will serve primarily to contextualizethe more in-depth study of sterling bonds. The subject of overseas bonds istoo great to be fully covered in one handy-sized volume. In particular, itwould not be possible to cover the huge US domestic market and its subsetsof tax-deductible, municipal and mortgage-backed debt.

Note: the book is illustrated with numerous examples of bonds trading themarkets over the 2010-2011 period. Prices and interest rates will reflect thosein force at that time.

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook

xii

Page 15: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

IntroductionMy initiation into the bond market was in the mid 80s at a very junior levelas a London Stock Exchange clerk. I stood by one of the gilt jobber’s pitcheswhilst a very serious man in a pin-striped suit fired off a rapid string ofcoupons, maturity dates and prices denominated in complex fractions. It wasa process seemingly designed to exclude the ordinary investor. By the early90s I found myself still dealing in bonds, this time on the Euromarkets andin a wider range of currencies. Again, the industry was an exclusive club,trading huge blocks between financial institutions.

It struck me as strange that whilst I, and indeed many of my colleagues, madetheir living by selling and buying these instruments, most of us had neverpersonally owned a bond. This was in considerable contrast to the franticpersonal account dealing seen in the equity departments of most banks andbrokerages. So I decided to give it a go, and by the mid 90s I was dipping mytoe into the world of bonds with my modest savings. I soon discovered thatinvesting your own money was a very different game to advising treasurersor fund managers – but more of that later.

The turn of the millennium saw me move into the world of independentresearch. Here I was able to pick up on the subject of bonds and the privateinvestor in more detail, launching the www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.ukwebsite and advising directly on a range of bond portfolios. It was a goodtime to be in the bond markets, which continued to outperform the turbulentequity markets of that decade.

Timing, of course, is everything. When I was investing in bonds back in thelate 1990s there was an underlying bull market in the asset class, combinedwith enough volatility to make investing interesting; at times very interesting!But a reader today may ask: is now the time to be involved in bonds? I wouldsuggest that, yes, it is.

Indeed, any serious investor should always be involved in bonds to somedegree if he or she is to maintain a balanced portfolio. There are other, moreimmediate reasons to be involved in investing in bonds. The ultra-low interestrates that central banks have put in place look set to hold force until themiddle of this decade, and income seekers are hard pressed to find returns.

xiii

Page 16: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

Whilst yields may be low on gilts, corporate bonds provide more substantialcoupons. Sensible returns are available from respectable issuers and risks forinvestors lower than the equity market.

There are other practical reasons to get involved in bonds. The rapid growthof low-cost ISA and SIPP accounts has meant that every person can have theirown personal tax shelter. Investors can keep and, importantly, re-invest, theinterest they receive from bonds. Finally, the growth of the LSE ORB markethas meant greatly improved access for private investors in the bond markets,a move that has been strongly supported by the UK’s private client brokersand wealth managers.

This book aims to help the average investor find his way into the bond market.I sincerely hope that bonds will soon become a permanent feature in yourportfolio.

Mark Glowrey

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook

xiv

Page 17: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

PART I:The Basics

Page 18: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark
Page 19: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

Chapter 1What’s a bond? Some key concepts

Page 20: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark
Page 21: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

Everybody knows what shares are – buy a share and you own a small stakein a company. If the company does well and makes a profit, this may be

distributed to shareholders as dividends. If the company continues to do well,these dividends will rise. Meanwhile, the capital value of your share, drivenby other investors in the market, will likely rise.

That’s the plan.

But as most investors will tell you, it doesn’t always work out like that.Dividends may be conspicuous by their absence. Even reliable blue chips suchas BP (or indeed most of the world’s banks) can be knocked for six by disaster,and dividends withheld for many years.

Bonds are different. A bond holder does not own the company – he or she islending it money, and that loan comes with the usual package of conditions:a fixed annual or semi-annual coupon and agreed date of repayment. In anutshell, a bond is this; a tradable security with a fixed interest payment and(usually) a pre-determined repayment date. The key point is this: the forwardcash flows of the investment are known.

What is more, in the majority of situations the company does not have theoption to withhold such payment and the bondholder has a prior claim onthe issuer’s assets in liquidation.

Bonds can be issued by a government, company or many other types oforganisations. Effectively they are marketable loans, or IOUs, issued by theseentities and bought by investors such as banks, insurance companies and fundmanagers.

It is worth mentioning at this point that there are numerousretail-targeted investment products marketed as “bonds”. Theseinclude fixed term (typically 2, 3 or 5 year fixed term deposits frombanks and building societies) and packaged equity-linked productsfrom life insurers etc, again often with a fixed life. This is sloppynomenclature on the part of the financial service industry and I, forone, would like to see the term “bond” reserved exclusively for fixedincome securities.

5

Tip:

Page 22: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

Investors are often heard to say “I don’t understand bonds”, but the truth isthat these instruments are much simpler than equities.

Key features

The key features can be broken down as follows:

At launch, bonds are sold to investors (typically institutional) via aninvestment bank or broker. This is known as the primary market. Gilt issuesare also offered directly to the general public. After this primary phase, bondsare then free to trade between investors and/or market counterparties.However, unlike equities that trade through a centralised stock exchange,bonds generally trade on a peer-to-peer basis from one institution (such asan investment bank) to another (such as broker).

This global market in bonds is enormous. Figures released by the InternationalMonetary Authority in 2002 estimated the total amount of debt securities asaround 43 trillion US Dollars. At the time this was nearly twice the total of theworld’s stock market capitalisation. The number of bonds in circulation isconsiderable, and a large and regular issuer such as the European InvestmentBank or General Electric may have several hundred issues trading at any onetime. These bonds will be issued in a variety of currencies and may differgreatly from each other in terms of coupon or coupon type, date of maturityand other features such as imbedded puts and calls.

Feature Description

Issuer This is the entity which is borrowing the money. For instance, £500 millionwill be borrowed, and £500 million of securities will be issued. Typicallythese will be sold at “par” or 100p in the pound. Thus, for every 100pinvested, 100p will be repaid at a pre-determined point in the future.

Coupon The issuer commits to pay a rate of interest of X% per year. This couponwill generally be a fixed amount and is paid annually or semi-annually. Therate will be determined by the investment bank advising the issuer, who willassess demand in the market at the time of issue – the variables being acombination of current and future interest rate expectations combined withan appropriate risk premium for the issuer.

Maturity A date is set for the repayment of the money. This is known as theredemption date. The bonds will be redeemed at “par” or 100p in thepound (with some rare exceptions).

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook

6

Page 23: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

This book is primarily concerned with the sterling bond market, and even inthis relatively small subset of the international bond markets, a quick checkon my Bloomberg Terminal reveals over 6,000 issues outstanding. Bear inmind that this number is constantly changing (bonds are issued andredeemed all the time).

Although the bond market is considerable in size, one point to bear in mindis that the secondary market is less consistent than that seen in equities. Manybonds are bought on a buy and hold basis as new issues, and this investorbehaviour has a tendency to reduce secondary market turnover. Governmentbonds remain highly tradable with very tight bid-offer spreads for large sizedeals. However, the liquidity situation in corporate bonds is variable withonly a proportion of the huge number of new issues that are readily tradablein the secondary market or accessible at any given time. The skills requiredto deal with this variable liquidity picture make bond dealing a slightly morecomplex art compared to the highly transparent equity market, and I addressthis issue over the course of the book.

Chapter 1. What’s a bond? Some key concepts

7

Page 24: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark
Page 25: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

Chapter 2Why buy bonds? The risks and rewardsof investing in bonds

Page 26: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark
Page 27: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

The last four decades have seen the emergence, growth and eventually thealmost total domination of equity investing. Prior to this, pension funds

had invested mainly in bonds, the view being that fixed income securitieswere a logical and safe home for the money. All this was to change in the1950s, in a move largely credited to the then fund manager of ImperialTobacco, George Ross Goobey. Mr Goobey, an actuary by profession, reachedthe conclusion that equities were undervalued and started switching the fundinto the then unfashionable stock market.

He was right. Over the coming decades, inflation destroyed the real returnfrom fixed income securities and equities proved the place to be. This view,sometimes known as the “cult of the equity” is now almost a universal beliefwith equities widely considered to be the first choice for investment.

But is this the whole story?

When an investment approach is almost universally adopted, it’s often timeto worry. Certainly, the bear market in the early 2000s eroded the longer-term outperformance of stocks against bonds; undermining the theory thatbonds are simply an antiquated asset class, suitable for only the mostunadventurous or complacent investors.

At the time of publication of this book, the argument for equities lookssomewhat weaker than usual. The highly respected 2011 Barclays Equity-Giltstudy (now in its 56th year of publication) shows that UK Government bondshave outperformed equities over a ten year period and are virtually level-pegging over a twenty-year period.

The figures shown below are “annual real returns” (i.e. inflation adjusted).Income is assumed to be re-invested.

Table 2.1: comparative performance of UK equities and gilts

Asset 2010 10 years 20 years

UK Equities 8.9% 0.6% 6%

Gilts 4.4% 2.4% 5.8%

11

Page 28: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

What is more, the performance that bonds have provided over the last coupleof decades has been delivered with far fewer heart-stopping moments thanthe thrills and spills experienced by equity holders over the 1987 crash, themillennium technology boom and bust, the flash crash of 2010 etc. (I couldgo on!)

Consider also that a balanced portfolio with a mixture of equity and bondholdings will show lower volatility than a pure equity portfolio.

Of course, past performance does not dictate future performance but thesestatistics somewhat undermine the theory that bonds are simply anantiquated asset class, suitable for only the most unadventurous orcomplacent investors.

The rewards

Before we move on to consider the potential risks and rewards of differenttypes of bonds, here are seven good reasons why every portfolio shouldcontain bonds:

1. Security

Government bonds have historically offered the investor unparalleledsecurity. Even in the current credit crisis, the risk of the UK or other majorgovernments being unable to repay their debts is comparatively low. Ofcourse, we live in a changing world, and the Greek financial crisis andgrowing indebtedness of the Western world means that investors should notbe complacent. An asset class that has been historically safe may not be safein the future. Nevertheless, higher-quality government bonds shouldtheoretically be considered superior in credit quality to a bank deposit. Why?Basically because governments have the power to levy taxation in order toservice their debt.

High-grade, multi-national government agencies (such as the World Bank)also offer an extremely safe home for the investor holding bonds to maturity.Of course, not all bonds are issued by governments or their agencies. Manybonds are issued by companies and other organisations whose ability toservice the debt may be less certain. However, even corporate debt can beconsidered a safer investment than the company’s equity. In the event of

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook

12

Page 29: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

bankruptcy, bondholders are ranked above shareholders in their claim on thecompany’s assets.

2 Return of capital

Bonds also differ from equities in one other very important aspect. In orderto realise your profit (or loss) on a share, you are wholly dependent on theability to sell the instrument back to the market. When an investor buys abond, the redemption date is fixed in advance, reducing the investor’s relianceon the uncertainties of future market sentiment or liquidity.

3 Income

With an ageing population in most developed countries, income becomes anincreasingly valuable aspect for any portfolio. Income available from bondsis generally higher than that available from equities. Also, future incomepayments are a known quantity, unlike dividends from equities, which maybe reduced or withheld entirely in times of low profitability. This makes bondsideal for investors who wish to secure future income over a defined period oftime. With bonds paying annually, semi-annually or sometimes quarterly, acarefully chosen bond portfolio with six or more holdings can produce areliable monthly income.

Also, most bonds pay their coupons gross, without withholding tax. Investorscan take advantage of this by holding qualifying bonds within an ISA,producing a tax free income for life, hopefully rolling up the full £10,000allowance year after year to build up a meaningful sum.

4. Capital growth

Bonds are associated with income, and understandably so. But, a stream ofincome, if received gross and re-invested can be a powerful tool for capitalgrowth. With the advent of low-cost and easily available tax-efficient ISA andSIPP accounts, this is now a workable strategy for the UK investor.

Tip: Seven is the magic number. A 7% income, if re-invested, willdouble a sum of money over a decade.

Chapter 2. Why buy bonds? The risks and rewards of investing in bonds

13

Page 30: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

5. Diversification

A well managed portfolio should contain a variety of different assets classes;equities, government bonds, index-linked bonds, corporate bonds, propertyand alternative assets all have their role to play. This simple approach, alsoknown as “not keeping all your eggs in one basket” is one of the most effectivestrategies for reducing risk in a portfolio. In certain economic scenarios, suchas a recession, bonds will generally show an inverse correlation in pricemovements to equities. Note that in the 2000-2003 period, when the FTSE100declined by nearly half from the millennium highs, longer-dated gilts sawprices rise over the same period (as can be seen in the following chart).

Figure 2.1: long-dated gilts v. FTSE 100 (2000-2003)

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook

14

UK Gilt Futures

FTSE 100

Page 31: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

6. Benefit from falling interest rates

When an investor buys a fixed coupon bond, he or she locks in interest ratesfor a defined period. Because of this, falling interest rates will cause the marketvalue of the bond to rise. Investors who buy bonds in falling interest ratescenarios will receive the double benefit of a secure income and capitalappreciation of their asset.

7. Speculation

Many financial instruments offer the potential to speculate on future pricemovements, and bonds are no exception. Liquid government bonds are oftenused by traders speculating on future interest rates while corporate bonds cansee sharp price movements from changes in the perceived credit quality ofthe issuer.

To summarise, bonds as an asset class are about income investing. This is notto say that such a strategy can not produce capital growth – the power of are-invested stream of coupons is a powerful tool.

Historically, UK investment has been about chasing capital gains. This isperhaps due to the history and the memory of post-war inflation and therelatively (I stress relatively) lenient tax treatment of capital gains. Incomegained on investments has historically gone straight on to the investor’s toprate of marginal tax.

The development and now wide acceptance of ISA and SIPP account allowbonds, and indeed other income-producing assets to be held within a simple,legal inexpensive tax shelter. This has been a game changer for the approachof many investors, and I would venture the opinion that this developmenthas further to run over the next few decades.

The risks

All investments involve risk, and bonds are no exception. Indeed, as somesavers with the Icelandic banks and their subsidiaries discovered in 2008, noteven bank deposits are truly risk free. Before we go on to consider the relativerisk of the fixed income and equity asset classes, it is worth taking a momentto consider the different types of risk that an investor might face. Investmentrisk can be broken down into roughly five categories as follows:

Chapter 2. Why buy bonds? The risks and rewards of investing in bonds

15

Page 32: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

1. Risk of default

The risk that the issuer may be unable to return all or some of the moneyadvanced to them. In the bond markets this is known as a default and in theunlikely event that the issuer defaults or goes bankrupt, you may lose some,or all, of your investment.

2. Market risk

The investor buys a bond at a price. This price will then fluctuate from dayto day according to interest rate expectations and credit rating changes,creating a paper profit or loss. Thus, if the investor needs to sell the asset toraise funds, they face a risk of capital loss.

3. Issue-specific risk

Many bonds are issued with imbedded features such as calls, which enablethe issuer to repay the debt ahead of schedule. This can be disadvantageousto the holder. However, such features are clearly laid out in the bondprospectus, so careful investors can either avoid such issues, or makecontingency plans.

4. Event and operational risks

Operational risk encompasses a variety of hazards such as brokerage charges,slippage or a shift to an unfavourable or punitive tax treatment. These typesof risk can be reduced through careful planning and monitoring. An exampleof event risk would be the issuer of the bond becoming the target of aleveraged buyout, increasing the degree of risk of lending money to thecompany.

5. Inflation

We can also add to this list the risk of inflation, which can reduce the realvalue of any asset or portfolio over time. Bonds, with their fixed interest andredemption payments are particularly vulnerable to this risk.

The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook

16

Page 33: xxxxxxxxxxx - Harriman House · xxxxxxxxxxx 1 • • • • Sa e • • • • The Sterling Bonds and Fixed Income Handbook A practical guide for investors and advisers By Mark

Chapter 3The players in the bond markets

The Sterling Bonds andFixed Income HandbookA practical guide for investors and advisers

Mark Glowrey

www.harriman-house.com/sterlingbonds

Paperback: 9780857190420eBook: 9780857193100

Available direct from Harriman House and all good booksellers. To ordera copy of the print or ebook edition go to: