y2k: opportunities for research stuart umpleby. kinds of research research as engagement learnings...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH
Stuart Umpleby
![Page 2: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Kinds of Research
• Research as engagement
• Learnings so far
• Research as observation
![Page 3: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
A Y2K Plan
• Awareness-building• Assessment• Remediation or
replacement• Testing• Independent
verification and validation
• Implementation
• Work with suppliers and customers
• Contingency planning
![Page 4: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Research as Engagement
• Newsweek
• World Wide Web
• Colleagues
• Compac
• FCC
• WDC Y2K
• Austria
![Page 5: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Research as Engagement 2
• Panel discussions at GW
• International Emergency Managers
• Summer of 1998 -- Gordon, lectures, solution
• Washington Post panels
• Spring 1999 EPA
• July conference -- Ferguson
• Halloween -- Indonesia
![Page 6: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Learnings: Management
• Few managers understand the infrastructure of modern society
• Bureaucracies are designed to deal with recurring, not novel problems
• Management science has focused on optimizing processes rather than how to create resilient organizations
![Page 7: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Learnings: Politics
• Leaders are more concerned with avoiding association with problems than with solving or managing problems
• Leaders in both parties and at all levels, including corporations, have avoided discussing y2k
• The press has followed the suggestions of national leaders in covering y2k
![Page 8: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Learnings: Economics 1
• The standard equilibrium model does not cope well with a universal problem triggered by a point in time
• The equilibrium model assumes there is time for organizations to adapt
• Some firms may gain market share and others may lose market share, but many firms do not simultaneously stop functioning
![Page 9: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Learnings: Economics 2
• Rational self-interest is a much weaker motivator than tradition or inertia
• The efficient market hypothesis applies only to routine kinds of information
• The bias of investment advisers toward market growth and stability outweighs client interests
![Page 10: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Learnings: Sociology
• The interests of the economy and of society have diverged
• The needs of the economy take precedence over the needs of people
• Preparation implies there is an alternative to the current social and economic system
• Management culture is about careers more than stewardship either of organizations or of society
![Page 11: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Learnings: Psychology
• Few people seek to understand new phenomena
• Y2K is a threat to coping with more routine concerns
• The percentage of systems thinkers in society is small
![Page 12: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Research opportunities 1
• Which societies were more vulnerable to disruptions -- well-prepared high tech societies or less prepared low tech societies?
• Why were some organizations / societies more resilient than others?
• What style of leadership / organizational structure / org. culture responded best?
![Page 13: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Research opportunities 2
• What is the geography of cyberspace, not just the internet but all information processing machines?
• How does a society make a sudden transition to a lower level of consumption?
• How does a society “reboot” its economy?
![Page 14: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Research opportunities 3
• Which communities were most prepared and why?
• What is the appropriate role of universities in dealing with a problem such as y2k?
• What kinds of people were most successful at understanding y2k?
![Page 15: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Possible institutional changes
• Accounting firms may be asked to review IT assets and contingency plans as well as financial assets
• New types of international cooperation• New roles for associations• New functions for universities and think
tanks• More interest in local government
![Page 16: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The upside of y2k
• We shall learn a lot about complex systems
• Unprecedented research opportunities -- an extraordinary social experiment
• Opportunities for public service
• Opportunities to redesign government services
![Page 17: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Www.gwu.edu/~y2k
• List of my publications and presentations • List of panel discussions arranged at GW
including powerpoint slides and Real Video• List of future symposia and conferences --
before and after studies of y2k• Surveys • Access to press clippings, books,
preparedness tips, key documents, etc.
![Page 18: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Presumed stages of y2k
• Unawareness / denial
• Planning / preparation
• Urgency / panic
• Response / recovery
![Page 19: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Dangers
• Chemical and nuclear spills• Failure of urban utilities• Disruption of manufacturing --unemployment• Failure of government services,
decentralization, rise of local mafias• Dramatic drop in international trade• Terrorism and sabotage
![Page 20: Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH Stuart Umpleby. Kinds of Research Research as engagement Learnings so far Research as observation](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649eff5503460f94c149ec/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
How we may escape dire consequences
• If there is less faulty equipment than currently estimated
• If the faulty equipment that exists does not cause critical problems
• If more repairs have been made than are currently estimated
• If organizations are very effective at work arounds and fixing on failure