Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH

Stuart Umpleby

Kinds of Research

• Research as engagement

• Learnings so far

• Research as observation

A Y2K Plan

• Awareness-building• Assessment• Remediation or

replacement• Testing• Independent

verification and validation

• Implementation

• Work with suppliers and customers

• Contingency planning

Research as Engagement

• Newsweek

• World Wide Web

• Colleagues

• Compac

• FCC

• WDC Y2K

• Austria

Research as Engagement 2

• Panel discussions at GW

• International Emergency Managers

• Summer of 1998 -- Gordon, lectures, solution

• Washington Post panels

• Spring 1999 EPA

• July conference -- Ferguson

• Halloween -- Indonesia

Learnings: Management

• Few managers understand the infrastructure of modern society

• Bureaucracies are designed to deal with recurring, not novel problems

• Management science has focused on optimizing processes rather than how to create resilient organizations

Learnings: Politics

• Leaders are more concerned with avoiding association with problems than with solving or managing problems

• Leaders in both parties and at all levels, including corporations, have avoided discussing y2k

• The press has followed the suggestions of national leaders in covering y2k

Learnings: Economics 1

• The standard equilibrium model does not cope well with a universal problem triggered by a point in time

• The equilibrium model assumes there is time for organizations to adapt

• Some firms may gain market share and others may lose market share, but many firms do not simultaneously stop functioning

Learnings: Economics 2

• Rational self-interest is a much weaker motivator than tradition or inertia

• The efficient market hypothesis applies only to routine kinds of information

• The bias of investment advisers toward market growth and stability outweighs client interests

Learnings: Sociology

• The interests of the economy and of society have diverged

• The needs of the economy take precedence over the needs of people

• Preparation implies there is an alternative to the current social and economic system

• Management culture is about careers more than stewardship either of organizations or of society

Learnings: Psychology

• Few people seek to understand new phenomena

• Y2K is a threat to coping with more routine concerns

• The percentage of systems thinkers in society is small

Research opportunities 1

• Which societies were more vulnerable to disruptions -- well-prepared high tech societies or less prepared low tech societies?

• Why were some organizations / societies more resilient than others?

• What style of leadership / organizational structure / org. culture responded best?

Research opportunities 2

• What is the geography of cyberspace, not just the internet but all information processing machines?

• How does a society make a sudden transition to a lower level of consumption?

• How does a society “reboot” its economy?

Research opportunities 3

• Which communities were most prepared and why?

• What is the appropriate role of universities in dealing with a problem such as y2k?

• What kinds of people were most successful at understanding y2k?

Possible institutional changes

• Accounting firms may be asked to review IT assets and contingency plans as well as financial assets

• New types of international cooperation• New roles for associations• New functions for universities and think

tanks• More interest in local government

The upside of y2k

• We shall learn a lot about complex systems

• Unprecedented research opportunities -- an extraordinary social experiment

• Opportunities for public service

• Opportunities to redesign government services

Www.gwu.edu/~y2k

• List of my publications and presentations • List of panel discussions arranged at GW

including powerpoint slides and Real Video• List of future symposia and conferences --

before and after studies of y2k• Surveys • Access to press clippings, books,

preparedness tips, key documents, etc.

Presumed stages of y2k

• Unawareness / denial

• Planning / preparation

• Urgency / panic

• Response / recovery

Dangers

• Chemical and nuclear spills• Failure of urban utilities• Disruption of manufacturing --unemployment• Failure of government services,

decentralization, rise of local mafias• Dramatic drop in international trade• Terrorism and sabotage

How we may escape dire consequences

• If there is less faulty equipment than currently estimated

• If the faulty equipment that exists does not cause critical problems

• If more repairs have been made than are currently estimated

• If organizations are very effective at work arounds and fixing on failure