yangtze river - china water risk...2018/09/05 · upper yangtze could reach 29% masl = metres above...
TRANSCRIPT
YANGTZE RIVER
KEY COUNTRY EXPOSURE
RIVER FLOW & RUNOFF MIX
CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST & FUTURE TREND
ICE RESERVES & GLACIER MELT
Annual flow estimation
Temperature Change (°C)(RCP4.5)
Hydrological Changes (mm/year)(RCP4.5)
Note: the share of surface water resources refers to the ratio of surface water produced internally by the river in the respective country and the country’s total renewable surface water.
Source: China Water Risk based on data from Center for Water Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Rainfall, snowfall and runoff change are expressed in equivalent water height. All data are calculated from five ensemble model (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, CCSM4, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR) in IPCC AR5.
Source: China Water Risk based on calculation by CAS-IGSNRR usingMPI-HM, PCRGLOBWB and WaterGAP hydrological models
1956-2005 2006-2055
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
DEFINITIONS (FAO AQUASTAT):− River flow/runoffs: the amount
of river water that flows in a given time
− Surface water produced internally: long-term average annual volume of surface water generated by direct runoff from endogenous precipitation (surface runoff) and groundwater contributions
− Total renewable surface water: the sum of the internal renew-able surface water resources and the total external renewable surface water resources
Glaciers in the Yangtze:Number: 1,528
666
-0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
0
1956-2005 2006-2055
0.72 1.83
Snowfall Rainfall Runoff
-0.28 -0.44 -0.29
2.80
0.67
-0.18
Glacier area shrinkage:
2,972 and 6,270 masl
Yangtze’s glaciers exist
between
China
GDP
Population
Surface WaterResources
34%
33%
21%
“The YREB [Yangtze River Economic Belt] is the socio-economic powerhouse of China. In 2014, the 11 YREB provinces and municipalities, with 43% of China’s population, generated 28 trillion yuan in Gross Regional Product. This represents nearly 42% of the national total GDP. The region is also essential for producing significant amounts of goods that are key to various industries as well as to food and energy security”
- China Water Risk, Water-nomics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, 2016
0.6
3x Three GorgesDams
Ice reserves:117 km3
Runoff mix in the upper Yangtze
Souce: China Water Risk based on Zhang et al (2013)
Glacier melt7%
Snow melt22%
Rainfall-runoff71%
Based on several sources, the contribution of glacier melt and snow melt to the runoffs in the Upper Yangtze could reach 29%
masl = metres above sea level
12%Between 1978-2002
(CGI-1) and 2006-2010 (CGI-2)
971bn m3
1.5xSize of Hong KongGlacier area: 1,675 km2
NO WATER, NO GROWTHDoes Asia have enough water to develop?
THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN
THE YANGTZE MATTERS FOR COUNTRIES, PEOPLE & THE ECONOMY
Total surface water resources = 937 billion m3
Total population = 458 million
Total 2015 GDP (constant 2010 price) = US$1,981 billion
China100%
China100%
China100%
YANGTZE RIVERYangtze River is the longest river in China and the third longest in the world. Originating from Tanggula Mountain Pass on top of the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, it is a natural dividing line between the North and the South, and runs over 6,300km before reaching the East China Sea near Shanghai.
Length
Basin Area
Annual flow
Flow through
Share of ice & snow melt in upper reach
Average surface water resources
Basin population
Basin GDP in 2015
Transboundary
6,300 km
1.72-2.07 million km2
666-971 billion m3
China
29% of runoff
937 billion m3
458 million
US$1,981 billion (constant 2010 price)
No
Water Use Per Unit GDP (m3/USD)
Irraw
addy
Amu
Dan
ya
Brah
map
utra
Mek
ong
Salw
een
Gan
ges
Tarim
Indu
s
Yang
tze
Yello
w
0.10
GDP mix
Industry39%
Agriculture12%
Services49%
NO WATER, NO GROWTHDoes Asia have enough water to develop?
Water use mix
Industry35%
Municipal15%
Agriculture50%
Water use per capita: 439m3/pax
For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018© China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected]
For references of all data, please refer to China Water Risk, “No Water, No Growth - Does Asia have enough water to develop?”, 2018© China Water Risk. All rights reserved, 2018. | Contact: [email protected]
YangtzeYangtze
© China Water Risk. Data Source: ICIMOD; Randolph Glacier Inventory; FAO AQUAmaps; Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of SciencesThis map uses UN urban population data. However, if we add rural population and other temporary residents living within the municipal boundary of cities, the total population can be larger.
Legend
Cities300k-5mn5-10mn
10-15mn
15-20mn
Over 20mn
HKH GlaciersRiver BasinMajor Rivers
0 100 200km