Yanze XieMay Zeineldin

Ujjwala DarvemulaVitaliy Dorogan

What is the product ?

•Large grain polysilicon thin film

•Solar cell

•Other possibilities ?

What competitive advantage do we have ?

If solar cell is the product:

•Low cost

•High efficiency

Polysilicon Market Assessment

Polysilicon

Semiconductorindustry

PhotovoltaicIndustry

(solar cells)

MEMSdevices

Thin filmTransistors

Customer

GovernmentUsers

Little bit of history

Polysilicon suppliers ===►Semiconductor industry

Stable supply chain for 40 years

Polysilicon proposition was higher than demand =►low price

Photovoltaic industry emerges =►demand increases

2004 - Semiconductor polysilicon demand up 15% and Photovoltaic polysilicon demand up 45% resulted in shortage of polysilicon on the market

Polysilicon price grew from $30 per kg in 2004 to $80-100 per kg in 2006

Polysilicon Market growth

http://www.micromagazine.com/archive/06/03/industrynews.html

2006 Polysilicon Market

Polysilicon producers:

1. Hemlock

2. REC Silicon

3. Wacker

4. MEMC

5. Tokuyama

6. Mitsubishi

7. Sumitomo

http://www.solarinsights.com/summary.htm

•Existing polysilicon producers have announced plans to invest $5 billion to construct new production facilities over the next 5 years

•New companies employing technological variations of existing technology have announced investments of $4.4 billion in new facilities over the next 5 years

•New companies employing new technologies have announced plans to invest $1.1 billion over the next 5 years

2006 Announcements

http://www.solarinsights.com/summary.htm

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50,000

100,000

150,000

32% 42% 46% SUPPLY

ME

TR

IC T

ON

S

Polysilicon Supply vs Demand Forecast

Scenarios of PV industry growth:(1) Moderate growth 32%,

(2) Anticipated growth 42%,

(3) Accelerated growth 46%.http://www.solarinsights.com/summary.htm

• Solar cells convert the solar energy to electrical energy through the “Photovoltaic” phenomenon.

•The photovoltaic phenomenon occurs when light incident on a material liberates electrons from their orbit.

•Electrons are free to move and constitute an electric current

• Solar cells are used in arrays to satisfy voltage and/or current requirements which can not be achieved using a single solar cell.

Home Power Magazine Solar Wind Water Design Build.mhtMarch,12,2008

There are three types of crystalline solar cells: - Single-crystal silicon. - Polycrystalline silicon. - Gallium Arsenide.

polycrystalline silicon solar cells produce slightly lower efficiencies (highest reported efficiency for polycrystalline silicon is 20.3% vs 24.7% for single crystalline silicon).

However they are cheaper and stronger and therefore can be

made thinner.

Gallium Arsenide solar cells have higher efficiencies (25.1%) but high fabrication costs.

Limited to smaller scale systems.

The available technology facilitates the mass production of polycrystalline silicon solar cells in comparison to Gallium Arsenide solar cells.

Small grain boundaries limits the efficiency of polycrystalline silicon solar cells.

The invented technique fabricates large grain polycrystalline silicon which will increase the efficiency.

The invented technique occurs at low temperature.

The increase in efficiency does not involve the increase in price.

Oil prices are increasing creates a rise in the demand for renewable energy sources.

Profit from solar cells can be explained by the fact that solar cells have no running cost.

Solar cells generate enough revenue to match their installation cost in approximately 3 to 4 years

Solar cells have a lifespan of around 25 years.

The current cost of solar cells it averages at about 5 dollars per peak watt.

The cost of the auxiliary devices such as batteries,etc. when included the price becomes 10-15 dollars per peak watt.

In September 2007 Colorado State University reported solar panels for as less as $1 per watt.

1-Large Scale Power

Generation

www.rise.org.au/dist/March,12,2008

2-Water Pumping

www.dkimages.com/.../Solar-Energy-11.html March,12,2008

3-Electric Fences

www.tnhfencing.com/ March,12,2008

4-Commercial Lighting

www.sunlightsolar.com.au/ March,12,2008

www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives/2007/12/powerge... March,12,2008

5-Residential Power

www.solar-tec.com/ March,12,2008

The global market for solar cells is expected to increase from $12,908.8 million in 2007 to $32,252.3 million in 2012 (a compound annual growth rate of 14.9% ).

The percentage of the solar cells market designated to silicon is 89 % in 2007 dropping slightly to a significant 79% by 2013.

Sharp Solar (Japan) .

Q-Cells (Germany).

Kyocera (Japan).

Suntech (China).

Sanyo (Japan)

Yanze Xie

FPD market space-Introduction & market context;-Size and growth.

Technology matches to the market-Perfective;-Continuous ;-Immediate.

FPD is both product and technologyMain technologies include

-Liquid-crystal display (LCD);-Organic light-emitting diode display (OLED);-Plasma display panel (PDP).

Customer of TFT are LCD &OLEDCustomer of the new technology is TFTMarket of our product = market of LCD

&OLED

FPD grew slowly starting from early last decade

Cathode ray tube (CRT) had been leading the market

2005 saw the first time surpassing, and account for > 50% overall display market

Prospective market analysis are positiveAlmost all large-area FPD manufacturing

is in Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and more recently China

Historical research shown an increase of TFT-LCD industry in the last decade

From 0 in 1992, Taiwan industry value had reached $2 billion in 2000.

Promotion of TFT-LCD industry, value increase in last decade.(http://www.itri.org.tw/eng/research/cno/re-cno-b003.jsp update to

1/18/2008)

Same growing paced by world wide market

Figure right: 25% grow rate on FPD market was prospected

Growth confirmed by report from micro-magazine: 80% of FPD market is owned by LCD, by the year 2007

Scale and prospects of the global FPD product market. (http://www.itri.org.tw/eng/news/commentary-show.jsp)

Another top customer for TFT is OLED

Spent years to catch up with LCD, finally close the distance

Market forecasts was $520m according to iSuppli, $491m to DisplaySearch 2005; or about 10% growth over 2004

Figure left-prospect for ww OLED market

Prospect for the worldwide OLED panel market, 2004-2012.(iSuppli Corp, Organic Light-Emitting Diode Displays, 1H 2006)

This figure provide a clear look of OLED market sharing

The clear leader of OLED market in 2005-Taiwan (27m units)-Korea (22m units)-Japan (8m units)

Quartered-year look at OLED market share.http://fantasticplastic.org/2006/02/28/

Active-matrix LCD (AMLCD) dominates the LCD segment, which has 80% of FPD market

In AM-LCD, each pixel is controlled by its own transistor switch

Traditional fabs these switches on a-Si film

Polysilicon TFT advances of a-Si TFT, see right table http://nina.ecse.rpi.edu/tft/research_summary/sld021.htm

OLED is advanced of LCD most fundamentally by looking great, image right is OLED in 2005

OLED no need backlight making thinner, so more applications

Operating speed 100 times higher than LCD

All made possible by using 2-5 TFT per pixel - exponential need Samsung Developed 21" OLED Panel for Digital TV in 2005.

(http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php)

FPD has extremely competitive and price sensitive market update

Cost control involve most material reduction – units cost and processing

Major strategy planed to focused on technology of LCD and FPD advancement

A successive low temperature polysilicon (LTPS) process would achieve FPD significant advantage.

Successive LTPS process would- Lead to transistor fabs ~100 folded mobility than a-Si TFT;- Allow smaller TFTs and higher aperture ration;- Enable the direct integration of LCD driver circuits onto the substrate and lowe costs;- Lead to higher luminance and contrast

Variety more other LCD applications: notebook and desktop PCs monitors, cell phones, etc.

eed.gsfc.nasa.gov/562/SA_MEMs.htm

eed.gsfc.nasa.gov/562/SA_MEMs.htm, ma

Source: http://www.njnano.org/pasi/event/talks/mansfield.pdf

MEMS application in automotive industry

MEMS application in biomedical industry

Google images.com

http://www.eetimes.eu/consumer/197006983

http://www.enablingmnt.com/html/nexus_market_report.html

http://www.enablingmnt.com/html/nexus_market_report.html

Questions???