yarra council - draft business & industrial land strategy. background report part 2

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    Aside from the area surrounding the Botanicca Corporate Park in Swan Street, Burnley, up to 45%

    of graduate and postgraduate skills are available within a thirty minute drive. This reflects the

    distribution of the resident population across Yarra which is within the Victoria, Bridge and Swan

    Street corridors and to the north and south of Alexandra Parade.

    Figure 8: % of Graduate and Postgraduate Population Accessible Within 30

    Minutes Drive, Yarra Focus Map, 2011

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

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    2.6.4 Employment by Industry (Workers)

    In 2006, Yarra had a total job stock of 57,000 jobs, an increase from 52,800 jobs in 1996.

    Figure 9 shows employment by industry in Yarra from 1996 to 2006. In 2006, the key sectors of

    employment were Health Care and Social Assistance (9,600 jobs), Professional, Scientific and

    Technical Services (6,900 jobs), and Retail Trade (6,700 jobs). This profile has changed since 1996

    where the dominant sectors were Manufacturing (10,100 jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance

    (8,300 jobs) and Wholesale Trade (6,200 jobs). Both Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade have

    been in decline since 1996.

    This indicates that the Yarra economy has been restructuring broadly in line with national trends

    where inner region based manufacturing has become more efficient or has declined in absolute

    terms. In many cases, traditional forms of manufacturing have been lost or relocated to more cost

    competitive countries such as China.

    Employment in Yarra is now linked to professional services which can support high labour costs and

    derive benefits from an inner city location. Population driven sectors such as Retail Trade,

    Construction, and Health Care and Social Assistance have also seen growth in employment.

    Figure 9: Employment by Industry, Yarra LGA, 1996 2006

    Source: ABS JTW, SGS Economics and Planning

    -

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    Agricult

    ure,ForestyandFishing

    Mining

    Manufacturing

    Electricity

    ,Gas,WaterandWaste

    Services C

    onstruction

    WholesaleTrade

    RetailTrade

    AccommodationandFoodServices

    TransportP

    ostalandWarehousing

    InformationMediaand

    Telecommunications

    Financial

    andInsuranceServices

    Rental,Hiringa

    ndRealEstateServices

    Professional,

    ScientificandTechnical

    Services

    Administrativ

    eandSupportServices

    PublicAd

    ministrationandSafety

    EducationandTraining

    HealthCareandSocialAssistance

    ArtsandRecreationServices

    OtherServices

    1996 2001 2006

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    From 1996 to 2006, Yarra saw strong growth in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

    (+4.6% p.a.), Retail Trade (+3.4% p.a.) and Health Care and Social Assistance (+1.4% p.a.). The

    economy is also diversifying with sectors such as Accommodation and Food Services (+1.8% p.a.),

    Financial and Insurance Services (+13.6% p.a.) and Arts and Recreation Services (+3.3% p.a.) all

    increasing off a low base from 1996. Financial and Insurance Services has seen an increase of

    2,700 jobs over the ten years to 2006.

    In the Yarra North SLA, key growth sectors have been Financial and Insurance Services (+9.8%

    p.a.), Education and Training (+2.8% p.a.), Construction (+2.8% p.a.) and Retail Trade (+2.4%

    p.a.). In the Yarra Richmond SLA key growth sectors are Financial and Insurance Services

    (+16.2% p.a.), Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services (+8.1% p.a.), Arts and Recreation Services

    (+7.6% p.a.) and Administrative Support Services (6.2% p.a.). In all, the Yarra - Richmond SLA

    accounts for broad range of growth sectors.

    These trends will have significant implications for land allocation for business and industrial uses.

    The proximity of the municipality to the CBD will mean that land for office based uses could be in

    higher demand whilst demand for industrial land could change to reflect a changing employment

    profile. It is possible that traditional industrial land could transition to support higher order

    manufacturing or mixed uses with a larger office component than what has been seen previously.

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    Figure 10: Employment Change by Industry, Yarra SLAs, Yarra LGA, Inner Melbourne and Melbourne, 2006

    Source: ABS JTW, SGS Economics and Planning

    -20.0%

    -15.0%

    -10.0%

    -5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    Agriculture,F

    orestyandFishing

    Mining

    Manufacturing

    Electricity,

    Gas,WaterandWasteServices

    Construction

    WholesaleTrade

    RetailTrade

    AccommodationandFoodServices

    TransportPostalandWarehousing

    InformationMediaandTelecommunications

    FinancialandInsuranceServices

    Re

    ntal,HiringandRealEstateServices

    Professional,ScientificandTechnicalServices

    AdministrativeandSupportServices

    PublicAdministrationandSafety

    EducationandTraining

    HealthCareandSocialAssistance

    ArtsandRecreationServices

    OtherServices

    Yar ra (C ) - N or th Yar ra (C ) - R ic hmo nd Yarr a (C ) Inn er Melb ou rn e Melb ou rn e SD

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    Figure 11 shows the percentage of total jobs accessible within 30 minutes drive for the Melbourne

    SD in 2011. Yarra is well placed adjacent to the CBD and within the CBD-eastern suburbs corridor

    where 60% of all jobs are accessible within a thirty minute drive. This high quality accessibility is

    related to a range of factors including high quality east-west arterial roads including Citylink and

    the Monash Freeway and a high job density along the eastern corridor in employment precincts and

    activity centres.

    Figure 11: % of Total Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Melbourne SD,

    2011

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

    Figure 12 shows a focus map (of the above) for Yarra. The vast majority of jobs within Yarra are

    accessible within thirty minutes drive. This reflects the concentration of employment within the

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    western portion of the city closest to the CBD and high quality accessibility offered by road, rail and

    tram corridors.

    These areas also contain major activity centres and employment precincts around Cremorne,

    Burnley, Richmond, and Fitzroy which account for significant employment. Areas to the north-east

    are not as well integrated with the inner region and are predominantly residential or account for a

    significant share of public open space (Yarra Bend Park). Around 45% of jobs in this area are

    accessible within a thirty minute drive.

    Figure 12: % of Total Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Yarra City Focus

    Map, 2011

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

    Figure 13 shows the percentage of total jobs accessible within 30 minutes by public transport for

    the Melbourne SD in 2011. This has been included by way of comparison with Figure 11 (total jobs

    accessible by vehicle) and the comparatively lesser access offered by public transport. Yarras

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    position within the inner region makes it accessible to around 15-30% of total jobs although this is

    less than the Melbourne CBD which is accessible to, at most, 30% of total jobs. This profile

    changes as travel times become longer with those areas adjacent to the rail corridors the most

    accessible to employment.

    Figure 13: % of Total Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes by Public Transport,

    Melbourne SD, 2011

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

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    Figure 14 shows the percentage of total manufacturing jobs accessible within thirty minutes drive

    for the Melbourne SD in 2011. This map shows a tightening of employment accessibility around

    key road transport routes particularly the Monash Freeway and the Tullamarine Freeway to the

    north-west.

    This reflects the shifting profile of this industry which is relocating to cheaper and more accessible

    land in the suburbs whilst retaining elements of local manufacturing and service industry in the

    inner region. Yarra City still accounts for a share of Melbournes manufacturing employment

    although this is becoming more specialised and focussed around core precincts of industrial activity

    within the municipality. Greater detail for Yarra is shown in Figure 14.

    Figure 14: % of Total Manufacturing Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive,

    Melbourne SD, 2011

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

    Figure 15 shows a focus map (of the above) for the manufacturing industry in Yarra. This reflects

    the nature of manufacturing in Yarra becoming more precinct focussed around those areas which

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    retain a critical mass of manufacturing jobs, have sufficient accessibility, and operate in niche

    markets. Increasingly, the emphasis is on small businesses which are capable of adapting or

    operating within a congested environment with accessibility, land and lot size constraints.

    Precincts are emerging across the municipality which have retained a core manufacturing role such

    as areas around Cremorne, Burnley, and Richmond. Manufacturing in the northern suburbs of Yarra

    such as in Fitzroy is fragmenting with residential development encroachment, congestion, poor

    access, and lack of critical mass affecting manufacturing employment in these areas. Again, those

    precincts which can operate within an increasingly congested inner region are surviving.

    Figure 15: % of Total Manufacturing Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive,

    Yarra City Focus Map, 2011

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

    Figure 16 shows the percentage of total logistics jobs accessible within thirty minutes drive for the

    Melbourne SD in 2011. This map shows the increasing role being played by suburban locations as a

    home for the logistics industry, particularly in the western region. This industry is suburbanising to

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    locations which offer cheaper land, access to high speed road links and access to major trading

    gateways such as the Port of Melbourne and Melbourne Airport.

    Logistics within the inner region still retains a strong presence but will increasingly specialise into

    small scale logistics which can operate in a congested environment with growing residential

    intensification.

    Figure 16: % of Total Logistics Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive,

    Melbourne SD, 2011

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

    Figure 17 shows a focus map for the logistics industry in Yarra. Yarra still accounts for a significant

    share of Melbournes logistics industry, and in comparison to manufacturing, is more evenly

    distributed across the municipality. This reflects the diversity of the logistics industry which can

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    consist of small to large operators and the ability of this industry to survive within a congested

    inner region in close proximity to residential uses.

    Areas around the Yarra River to the north and north-east have lower access to logistics jobs

    reflecting accessibility and land constraints in this area. Logistics employment declines significantly

    along the Eastern Freeway corridor as residential and open space uses dominate the local land use

    profile.

    Figure 17: % of Total Logistics Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Yarra

    City Focus Map, 2011

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

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    2.6.5 Gross Value Added by Industry

    Figure 18 shows the proportional contribution of each industry to Gross Value Added (GVA) for the

    Yarra SLAs, LGA, the inner Melbourne region and the Melbourne SD. The total GVA for the Yarra

    (C) North SLA was 3.0 million whilst the contribution from the Yarra (C) - Richmond SLA was 2.7

    million. In all, the Yarra municipality had a GVA of 5.7 million in 2008.

    Figure 18: Share of Gross Value Added, 2008, City of Yarra SLAs and LGA, Inner

    Melbourne, Melbourne SD

    Source: ABS JTW, SGS Economics and Planning

    In the Yarra (C) North SLA, the greatest contribution was from property and business services,

    followed by health and community services, manufacturing, and wholesale trade. In the Yarra (C) Richmond SLA, the greatest contribution was from Property and Business Services followed by

    Finance and Insurance, Health and Community Services, Wholesale Trade and Cultural and

    Recreational Services.

    In total, the greatest contribution to the Yarra municipal GVA was Property and Business Services,

    Finance and Insurance Services, Health and Community Services, Wholesale Trade and

    Manufacturing.

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    30.0%

    Agriculture

    ,ForestryandFishing

    Mining

    Manufacturing

    Electricity,G

    asandWaterSupply

    Construction

    WholesaleTrade

    RetailTrade

    Accommodation,C

    afesandRestaurants

    T

    ransportandStorage

    Com

    municationServices

    F

    inanceandInsurance

    PropertyandBusinessServices

    GovernmentAdministrationandDefence

    Education

    Healthand

    CommunityServices

    CulturalandRecreationalServices

    Person

    alandOtherServices

    Yar ra (C) - N or th Yar ra (C) - R ichmond Yar ra (C) Inne r Me lbour ne Me lbourne SD

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    The Yarra (C) Richmond SLA provides a greater share of Property and Business Services, Finance

    and Insurance, Retail Trade, and Cultural and Recreational Services output than the Yarra (C)

    North SLA. The Yarra (C) North SLA however, provides a greater contribution to Manufacturing,

    Construction, Wholesale Trade, and Education industry output.

    This profile is generally consistent with the inner region economy where Property and Business

    Services and Finance and Insurance make the most substantial contribution to GVA, although the

    contribution of Health and Community Services to inner region output is much smaller than in

    Yarra. Yarra and the inner region are playing less of a role in metropolitan Manufacturing and

    Transport and Storage output. This is consistent with the broader patterns of these industries

    which are in decline in the inner region but are growing in output via other regions in Melbourne.

    2.6.6 Export and Local Sectors

    Export and local sectors within the Yarra economy can be identified through the use of location

    quotient (LQ) analysis. The LQ is derived by comparing the proportion of jobs by industry in Yarra

    City with the proportion of jobs by industry in Victoria. A score over 1.0 indicates an

    overrepresentation of jobs in that sector, thus indicating that a quantum of those jobs is generated

    by external export (non local) demand.

    A score that is less than 1.0 implies that it is an import sector. This has also been done by output

    for each industry. Figure 19 shows the location quotient index by employment for 2006 and Figure

    20 shows the trend between 2001 and 2006 for the 1 Digit ANZSIC categories.

    There were a number of industries that recorded significant location quotient scores in 2006. These

    included:

    Information Media and Telecommunications (2.0); Wholesale Trade (1.6);

    Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (1.6);

    Financial and Insurance Services (1.6);

    Health Care and Social Assistance (1.6); and

    Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services (1.2).

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    Figure 19: Location Quotient of Industries, 1 Digit ANZSIC, Yarra City compared

    to Victoria, 2006

    Source: ABS Census 2001, 2006 JTW, SGS Economics and Planning

    The LQ index for Yarra City has changed significantly since 2001. Yarra has consolidated its position

    in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Information Media and Telecommunications and

    Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services.

    The LQ for Health Care and Social Assistance has marginally declined from 2001 (1.7) to 2006

    (1.6). The LQ for Wholesale Trade also declined from 2001 (1.7) to 2006 (1.6). These industries

    nonetheless maintained their export orientation over the 5 year period.

    The location quotient indexes for Finance and Insurance Services and Administrative and Support

    Services exceeded 1.0 in 2006 making these industries export sectors. The strengths of the Yarra

    economy are in a range of sectors where Yarra serves a regional catchment.

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    Agriculture,ForestryandFishing

    Mining

    M

    anufacturing

    Electricity,Gas,WaterandWaste

    Services C

    onstruction

    WholesaleTrade

    RetailTrade

    AccommodationandF

    oodServices

    Transport,PostalandWarehousing

    Informatio

    nMediaand

    Telecommunications

    FinancialandInsura

    nceServices

    Rental,HiringandRealEstateServices

    Professional,Scientifica

    ndTechnical

    Services

    AdministrativeandSupportServices

    PublicAdministratio

    nandSafety

    Education

    andTraining

    HealthCareandSocialAssistance

    ArtsandRecrea

    tionServices

    O

    therServices

    LQ

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    Figure 20: Location Quotient of Industries, 1 Digit ANZSIC, Yarra City Compared

    to Victoria, 2001 & 2006

    Source: ABS Census 2001, 2006 JTW, SGS Economics and Planning

    2.6.7 Industry Specialisation and Growth

    Figure 21 is a growth share matrix for the City of Yarra in 2006 using the 2006 1-digit ANZSIC

    categories. The chart shows the location quotient index for each industry (compared with Victoria)

    together with the annual average change in employment by industry. The industry growth share

    matrix is divided into quadrants, each quadrant defining the stage of lifecycle for the industry.

    Stages in the lifecycle are illustrated in the growth share matrix as follows:

    Expanding Stage: If in the top right quadrant (high average annual growth/high

    specialisation).

    Emerging Stage: If in the lower right quadrant (high average annual growth/lower

    concentration), this implies an emerging, growing industry that may need some assistance to

    mature.

    Transforming Stage: If in the upper left quadrant (lower average annual growth/above

    average concentration), this implies the industry is at risk (overall) and needing to increase

    innovation and productivity to compete with other regions.

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    Agriculture,Forestryand

    Fishing

    Mining

    Manufacturing

    Electricity,Gas,Wateran

    dWaste

    Services C

    onstruction

    Wholesa

    leTrade

    RetailTrade

    AccommodationandFood

    Services

    Transport,PostalandWare

    housing

    InformationMediaand

    Tlc

    icti

    s

    FinancialandInsurance

    Services

    Rental,HiringandRealEstate

    Services

    Professional,ScientificandTechnical

    Srvics

    AdministrativeandSupport

    Services

    PublicAdministrationan

    dSafety

    Educationand

    Training

    HealthCareandSocialAs

    sistance

    ArtsandRecreation

    Services

    Other

    Services

    2001 2006

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    Seed or Transitioning Stage: If in the lower left quadrant (lower average annual

    growth/lower concentration), this implies that the industry is not growing in Yarra. This

    suggests that the industry will need to innovate or specialise to retain competitiveness.

    Figure 21: Growth Share Matrix, City of Yarra, By Employment (LQ withVictoria), 2006

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning, ABS Census, 2006 Journey to Work

    Those industries in the top right quadrant include Professional, Scientific and Technical Services,

    Health Care and Social Assistance, Financial and Insurance Services, Rental, Hiring and Real Estate

    Services, Accommodation and Food Services, Other Services, Administrative and Support Services,

    Retail Trade and Arts and Recreation Services.

    Industries in the bottom right quadrant exhibit low specialisation but strong annual average jobs

    growth. Industries in this quadrant include Electricity, Gas, Water, and Waste Services, PublicAdministration and Safety, Construction and Mining.

    Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Manufacturing, Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Education

    and Training are located in the bottom left quadrant which indicates low specialisation and a

    declining trend in employment since 2001. These industries should be repositioned through value

    adding to ensure that Yarra retains these specialisations but can reverse current employment

    trends. Information Media and Telecommunications and Wholesale Trade are located in top left

    quadrant indicating high specialisation but declining growth.

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    2.6.8 Employment Projections

    SGS total employment estimates are disaggregated by Australian and New Zealand Standard

    Industrial Classification (ANZSIC 06 classification). Total employment in the City of Yarra was at

    approximately 52,800 in 1996, and increased to 57,000 in 2006. Almost 20% of total employment

    in 2006 was accounted for by workers in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (12.2%),

    and Financial and Insurance Services (6.8%).

    SGS employment forecasts indicate that total employment will continue to grow to approximately

    71,300 by 2016 and 86,000 by 2026. Existing large employing industries are expected to

    consolidate their share by then with Retail Trade commanding 10% of total employment share.

    Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and Financial and Insurance Services are also

    expected to consolidate their position at 15.2% and 12.2%, respectively. The estimated

    employment projections for Yarra are shown below in Table 6.

    The Melbourne employment projections were derived via use of the TRYM (Treasury

    Macroeconomic Model) and data obtained from a variety of sources. Information from theAustralian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics and the

    Joint Economic Forecasting Group was used by SGS to develop a set of industry projections for the

    Australian economy.

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    Table 6: Employment Projections by Industry, Yarra, 2006 26

    Sector 1996 2001 2006% p.a.

    (1996 - 06)2011 2016 2021 2026

    % p.a.

    (2011 - 26)

    Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 50 70 40 -2.2% 30 40 40 40 1.9%

    Mining 10 10 10 0.0% 20 20 20 20 0.0%

    Manufacturing 10,130 7,550 4,930 -6.9% 4,470 3,800 3,090 2,020 -5.2%

    Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 470 420 420 -1.1% 490 540 530 490 0.0%

    Construction 1,620 1,800 2,080 2.5% 2,490 2,750 2,920 3,090 1.4%

    Wholesale Trade 6,270 5,110 4,730 -2.8% 4,640 4,400 3,860 3,050 -2.8%

    Retail Trade 4,840 5,870 6,760 3.4% 7,200 7,740 8,060 8,340 1.0%

    Accommodation and Food Services 3,110 3,610 3,730 1.8% 4,420 5,400 6,080 6,850 3.0%

    Transport Postal and Warehousing 1,180 1,280 1,140 -0.3% 1,250 1,110 840 680 -4.0%

    Information Media and Telecommunications 2,490 2,700 2,600 0.4% 2,250 1,990 2,190 2,400 0.4%

    Financial and Insurance Services 1,080 1,850 3,850 13.6% 5,120 6,240 7,800 9,700 4.4%

    Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 590 950 1,000 5.4% 1,180 1,240 1,300 1,360 1.0%

    Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 4,400 6,370 6,930 4.6% 8,270 9,550 11,030 12,060 2.5%

    Administrative and Support Services 1,550 1,760 2,130 3.2% 2,120 2,180 2,210 2,210 0.3%

    Public Administration and Safety 1,280 1,190 1,430 1.1% 1,470 1,590 1,700 1,820 1.4%

    Education and Training 2,020 2,480 2,430 1.9% 3,040 3,370 3,570 3,690 1.3%

    Health Care and Social Assistance 8,340 8,990 9,630 1.4% 11,890 15,190 19,350 23,050 4.5%

    Arts and Recreation Services 660 750 910 3.3% 1,260 1,430 1,600 1,760 2.3%

    Other Services 2,710 2,080 2,280 -1.7% 2,590 2,810 3,090 3,380 1.8%

    Total 52,800 54,840 57,030 0.8% 64,200 71,390 79,280 86,010 2.0%

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

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    2.6.9 Land Projected Demand

    SGS has identified core industrial jobs and land provided in the municipality at 2010 and derivedestimates for industrial land using the observed ratio between jobs and land, keeping this ratio

    constant over time.

    It is acknowledged that the employment to land ratio may change over time as businesses,

    industrial practices and densities evolve. To capture this, sensitivity analysis has been undertaken

    where the ratio between employment and land observed at 2010 is altered upwards and

    downwards by a factor of 20%. Consequently, a range is provided within which the projected

    demand is expected to lie.

    The land area data has been derived from the Yarra Planning Scheme and GIS calculations. The

    2010 employment projections are derived by a direct interpolation of jobs in 2006 (available fromthe census) and SGS employment projections for 2011.

    The process of converting employment projections into land projections (for core industry) is as

    follows:

    Core industries are defined to include Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste

    Services, Wholesale Trade and Transport Postal and Warehousing.

    The ratio of employment in these industries at 2010 to the core industrial land available

    (IN1Z and IN3Z) at 2010 gives the employment to land utilization ratio.

    Assuming this land utilization ratio remains constant, base case land requirements to 2026

    are determined by taking the ratio of projected core industrial employment to the land

    utilization ratio.

    Two additional scenarios are developed which allow for the land utilization ratio to be

    changed by 20% on either side of the base case.

    The land requirements (in Ha) are shown below:

    Table 7: Estimated Industrial Land Demand 2006 2026

    2010 (Existing) 2016 2026Change

    2010 - 26% p.a.

    Base Case 82.4 74.3 47.1 -35.3 -3.4%

    Upper case 92.9 58.8 -23.6 -2.1%

    Lower case 61.9 39.2 -43.2 -4.5%

    Source: Yarra Planning Scheme, SGS Economics and Planning

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    Figure 22: Core Industrial Land Demand

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

    The process of converting employment projections into land projections (for business) is as follows:

    Assume all industry sectors excluding the core industrial sectors as business uses.

    The ratio of employment in these industries at 2010 to the core business land available

    (B1Z, B2Z, B3Z, B4Z, B5Z) at 2010 gives the employment to land utilization ratio. Assuming this land utilization ratio remains constant, base case land requirements to 2026

    are determined by taking the ratio of projected core industrial employment to the land

    utilization ratio.

    Two additional scenarios are developed which allow for the land utilization ratio to be

    changed by 20% on either side of the base case.

    The projected land demand (in Ha) is shown below:

    Table 8: Estimated Land Demand (including Business) 2006 2026

    2010 (Existing) 2016 2026Change

    2010 - 26% p.a.

    Base Case (B1Z) 95

    Base Case (B2Z B5Z) 140.6

    Base Case (Total) 235.9 280.0 362.9 127.1 2.7%

    Upper case 350.0 453.6 217.8 4.2%

    Lower case 233.3 302.4 66.6 1.6%

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

    -

    25.0

    50.0

    75.0

    100.0

    2010 (Existing) 2016 2026

    Base Case Upper case

    Lower case

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    Figure 23: Business Land Demand

    Source: SGS Economics and Planning

    -

    150.0

    300.0

    450.0

    600.0

    2010 (Existing) 2016 2026

    Hectares

    Base Case Upper case

    Lower case

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    3 SUPPLY SIDE CONDITIONS

    This section describes the current floorspace and land supply conditions across the relevant zones

    in Yarra and assesses the property market conditions in relation to business and industrial land in

    Yarra. The Urban Development Program provides a 2009 stocktake for all industrial and Business 3Zone land and this has been used to provide a regional context. All local data for Yarra has been

    sourced from Councils rates database.

    3.1 Regional Context

    An audit of occupied and vacant B3Z and IND1Z & IND3Z land as of 2009 and a map of these areas

    is provided in the following two pages. A regional context map derived from the Urban

    Development Program is provided on page 46 which shows the location of all industrial zoned land

    in the region and recent developments. Key findings relating to Yarra from the audit are as follows:

    There is minimal B3Z vacant land supply in the region with the Melbourne LGA accounting

    for the greatest amount of B3Z land supply. In all, there were 12.8 ha of B3Z land supply

    in 2009 across the region.

    IND1Z vacant land supply is minimal across the region (23 ha) with Moreland (7.3 ha),

    Melbourne (6.9 ha) and Darebin (5.2 ha) accounting for the greatest amounts of land

    supply in this zone.

    IND3Z vacant land supply is minimal across the region (21 ha) with Darebin (13.3 ha) and

    Banyule (3.5 ha) accounting for the greatest amounts of land supply in this zone.

    In 2009, Yarra had a total B3Z land stock of 73.8 ha comprising 72.4 ha of occupied land

    and 1.4 ha of vacant land supply. Yarras total B3Z land stock was 31% of all B3Z land in

    the region.

    Yarra had 49.6 ha of IND1Z land comprising 49.2 ha of occupied land and 0.3 ha of vacant

    IND1Z land. Yarras total IND1Z land stock was 6.5% of all IND1Z land in the region.

    Yarra had 16.3 ha of IND3Z land comprising 15.8 ha of occupied land and 0.6 ha of vacant

    supply. Yarras total IND3Z land stock was 4.4% of all IND3Z land in the region.

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    Figure 24: Business and Industrial Land, Yarra, 2009

    Source: DPCD; Urban Development Program

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    Table 9: Industrial 1 & 3 and Business 3 Zone Land, Yarra and Surrounding Municipalities

    B3Z IN1Z IN3Z

    Supply (Ha) Unavailable (Ha) Total (ha) % of Region Supply (Ha) Unavailable (Ha) Total (ha) % of Region Supply (Ha) Unavailable (Ha) Total (ha) % of Region

    Melbourne 10.8 70.4 81.2 34.0% 6.9 250.4 257.3 33.6% 0.6 12.9 13.5 3.6%

    Stonnington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 3.8 3.8 1.0%

    Port Phillip 0.2 32.5 32.7 13.7% 3.1 124.0 127.1 16.6% 0.0 4.2 4.2 1.1%

    Yarra 1.4 72.4 73.8 30.9% 0.3 49.2 49.6 6.5% 0.6 15.8 16.3 4.4%

    Banyule 0.0 12.2 12.2 5.1% 0.2 51.3 51.5 6.7% 3.5 57.1 60.6 16.4%

    Boroondara 0.0 18.6 18.6 7.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

    Darebin 0.0 3.1 3.1 1.3% 5.2 107.9 113.1 14.8% 13.3 171.4 184.7 50.0%

    Moreland 0.4 16.6 17.0 7.1% 7.3 160.3 167.6 21.9% 3.2 82.9 86.1 23.3%

    Region Total 12.8 225.8 238.6 100.0% 23.0 743.2 766.2 100.0% 21.2 348.0 369.2 100.0%

    MSD 586.0 1,253.8 1,839.8 1,968.5 7,394.2 9,362.6 1,127.5 1,803.8 2,931.2

    Source: DPCD, Urban Development Program

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    Figure 25: Regional Context Map, Yarra and Surrounding Municipalities

    Source: DPCD, Urban Development Program

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    Melbournes Industrial Nodes

    Melbournes industrial structure is generally concentrated into several major nodes. Three nodes

    are located in the western region (West node, Melton node and Airport node), one in the north

    (North node), one in the south (South node) and one in the outer south-east (Pakenham node).

    These areas are recognised as hubs of regional and metropolitan significance which in turn reflect

    the changing spatial pattern of industrial development across Melbourne. This analysis has been

    included to provide a context to Yarras business and industrial areas in terms of land area and

    occupancy. The Urban Development Program provides land area data for each industrial node for

    2009. For the purpose of the results, Yarra is counted within the Other Areas in Metropolitan

    Melbourne category. The data is provided overleaf.

    Key findings are as follows:

    In 2009, the industrial nodes provided 11,100 ha of land comprising 6,700 ha of occupied

    land and 4,400 ha of vacant land supply. This represented 46% of all industrial land in the

    metropolitan area at the time. The median take-up rate of land each year since 2004 was

    221 ha per year.

    Industrial land in Other Areas in Metropolitan Melbourne totalled 12,850 ha comprising

    10,400 ha of occupied land and 2,450 ha of vacant land supply. The median take-up rate of

    land each year since 2004 was 61 ha per year.

    Total land area take up in Melbourne between 2004 and 2009 was 1,400 ha of which the

    industrial nodes accounted for 1,150 ha and 265 ha in other areas of Melbourne. Thisrepresents a share of 81.3% in the industrial nodes and 18.7% in other areas of Melbourne

    over that time.

    This shows an overall shift of industrial development to the outer suburbs with take up

    rates in the industrial nodes being three times greater than in the other areas of

    Melbourne.

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    Figure 26: Melbournes Industrial Nodes

    Source: Urban Development Program

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    Table 10: Industrial Land Supply, Melbournes Industrial Zones, 2009

    Source: DPCD, Urban Development Program, 2009

    Occupied

    (Hectares) Vacant (Hectares)

    Total

    Hectares

    2004 to

    2005

    2005 to

    2006

    2006 to

    2007

    2007 to

    2008

    2008 to

    2009

    Average2004-

    2009

    Median2004-

    2009

    Total2004-

    2009

    % of

    Metro

    Melb

    West Node 2,407.1 1,400.1 36.8% 3,807.1 108.61 91.79 83.05 109.77 74.70 93.58 91.79 467.92 33.0%

    Melton Node 182.7 276.1 60.2% 458.8 5.05 3.24 -6.38 2.77 1.57 1.25 2.77 6.25 0.4%

    Airport Node 400.8 250.0 38.4% 650.9 8.76 12.12 13.77 41.86 18.81 19.07 13.77 95.33 6.7%

    North Node 1,568.5 1,226.6 43.9% 2,795.1 43.93 72.61 45.08 55.43 22.32 47.87 45.08 239.37 16.9%

    South Node 2,054.5 975.5 32.2% 3,029.9 55.90 52.90 79.06 65.57 63.25 63.34 63.25 316.68 22.4%

    Pakenham Node 91.7 271.7 74.8% 363.3 -0.67 9.74 2.36 2.04 12.70 5.23 2.36 26.16 1.8%

    Total of Above Nodes 6,705.2 4,399.9 39.6% 11,105.1 221.58 242.39 216.95 277.44 193.35 230.34 221.58 1,151.71 81.3%

    Other Areas in Metropolitan Melbourne 10,389.5 2,455.2 19.1% 12,844.8 71.30 65.00 35.36 61.27 31.54 52.90 61.27 264.48 18.7%

    Total Metropolitan Melbourne 17,094.8 6,855.1 28.6% 23,949.9 292.88 307.39 252.31 338.71 224.89 283.24 292.88 1,416.18 100.0%

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    3.2 Floorspace and Land Area by Zone

    Yarra had approximately 1.5million square metres of business and industrial floorspace in 2010

    covering approximately 223 ha of business and industrial land. Total business floorspace wasaround 1million square metres with industrial floorspace comprising approximately 480,000 square

    metres. Yarra had a total of approximately 141 ha of business zoned land and 82 ha of industrial

    zoned land.

    The B3Z accounted for the greatest share of business floorspace (64%/678,500 square metres),

    followed by the B2Z (18%/194,250 sqm). The IND1Z accounted for the greatest share of all

    industrial floorspace in Yarra (81%/399,500 sqm), with the IND3Z accounting for 19% of all

    industrial floorspace (89,230 sqm).

    The B3Z accounted for the highest share of business zone land (62%/87.0 ha) followed by the B2Z

    (20%/28.6 ha). Development within the B3Z had the highest site coverage (expressed as plot

    ratio) (78%) followed by the B4Z (75%). This is expected given the purpose of the zone which

    supports mixed office and manufacturing. Some showrooms and related uses also have a high site

    coverage which could influence the B4Z having a high site coverage.

    Table 11: Total Floorspace and Land Area by Zone, City of Yarra, 2010

    ZoneFloorspace

    (Square metres)% Floorspace

    Share Land Area (Ha) % Land Share Plot Ratio*

    B2Z 194,252 18% 28.6 20% 68%

    B3Z 678,517 64% 87.0 62% 78%

    B4Z 86,924 8% 11.5 8% 75%

    B5Z 98,876 9% 13.5 10% 73%

    Sub-Total BZ 1,058,569 100% 140.6 100% 75%

    IN1Z 390,596 81% 62.5 76% 62%

    IN3Z 89,237 19% 19.9 24% 45%

    Sub-Total INDZ 479,833 100% 82.4 100% 58%

    Grand Total 1,538,402 223.0 69%

    Source: Land Areas: Yarra Planning Scheme GIS information; Floorspace: Yarra Rates Database

    Note: There may be discrepancies between the above data and that of the Urban Development Program due todifferences in data collection methodologies

    * Plot ratio is ratio of floorspace to site area

    The B2Z is the core commercial office zone. This zone could expect to have high site coverage

    within the inner region given land efficiencies which office development can realise with basement

    parking or consolidated parking offsite. In 2010, the plot ratio was around 68% which suggests

    some variation across office development in Yarra. Offices within activity centres could be

    expected to have a higher plot ratio whilst plot ratios could be less in business park settings across

    Yarra. The Botanicca Corporate Park has not reached full development capacity.

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    B k d R d d b C il f bli l 18 10 11 d P 6

    The industrial zones typically have lower site coverage, with plot ratios in the IND1 and 3 Zones

    around 62% and 45%, respectively.

    3.3 Land Use Mix by Zone

    The following charts show the top 10 land uses by total floorspace for each zone. Key findings are

    as follows:

    Business 2 Zone: The top five land uses are office, showroom, factory, flat, and consulting

    rooms. These uses are generally in accordance with the purpose of the zone aside from dwelling

    and factory.

    Business 3 Zone: The top five land uses are office, office/warehouse, factory, showroom and

    dwelling. These uses are generally in accordance with the purpose of the zone aside from dwelling.

    Offices and a combination of office/warehouse could be expected to locate in the Business 3 Zone.

    Business 4 Zone: The top five land uses are showroom, factory, office, showroom/warehouse,

    and factory/workshop. These uses are generally in accordance with the purpose of the zone aside

    from dwelling. This zone is principally for bulky goods retailing and showroom type uses which

    may include a warehouse or manufacturing components.

    Business 5 Zone: The top five land uses are flat, office, warehouse apartment, factory/office and

    dwelling townhouse. These uses are generally in accordance with the purpose of the zone aside

    from dwelling townhouse.

    Industrial 1 Zone: The top five land uses are office/warehouse, factory, office, warehouse, andfactory/office. These uses are generally in accordance with the purpose of the zone.

    Industrial 3 Zone: The top five land uses are office/warehouse, factory/workshop, factory,

    factory/office and office. These uses are generally in accordance with the purpose of the zone

    aside.