yellow river basin focal project

Yellow River Basin Focal ProjectYellow River Basin Focal Project

BFP Program WorkshopBFP Program WorkshopFebruary 3

Cali ColombiaCali, Colombia

OUTLINEOUTLINE

Overview of the YRBKey water-food challengesy gYRB Work PackagesProject implementation challengesProject implementation challenges

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Basin Area: 795,000 km2

Population: 110 millionRiver Length: 5,454 kmElevation Drop: 4,480 mGDP : US$88 billionCultivated land: ~12 million ha

Avg rainfall: 450 mmgAvg runoff: 58->53 BCMGround water: 13.9 BCMTotal volume: 71.9 BCMPer cap water: 650 m3


KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGESIntense urban-industrial development along the Yellow River has had seriousthe Yellow River has had serious consequences for water and food security and environmental sustainabilityyFocus on reallocating water to the environment and new sediment flushing

li i t k t f i i tipolicies take water away from irrigationNew estimates reduced water availability, thus 1987 province-level water allocationthus 1987 province level water allocation needs to be revised – current negotiations will likely lead to (sub-optimal) proportional

d tiINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

reduction

KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES

Irrigation policies in some places support increased WUE, in others they don’t Ag water saving strategies work (only) g g g ( y)when they also save labor--at least d/s--due to significant off-farm opportunitiesHypothesis: Poverty is concentrated in upland/upstream rainfed areas without non-farm income opportunities


KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES

Large sediment erosion in the basin gaffect water availability for other uses and require US$ billions of investment i t d d d kinto dams and dykesIncreasing water quality problems red ce ater a ailabilit for irrigationreduce water availability for irrigationVery little knowledge on future impact of climate changeof climate changeVery little knowledge on benefit of water use in domestic industrial uses


water use in domestic-industrial uses

PROJECT OBJECTIVESPROJECT OBJECTIVES

Study water poverty, water availability y p y, yand access, water productivity, and water and related institutions in the YRB to develop and rank a series of high-priority interventions aimed at increasing water and food security for the poor while maintaining

i t l t i bilitenvironmental sustainability


PROJECT PARTNERSPROJECT PARTNERS

• Yellow River Conservancy Commission y[WP2/WP5]

• Beijing Normal University [WP2]• China Center for Agricultural Policy

[WP4]• University of Illinois [WP3]• Int. Food Policy Research Institute

[WP1/WP6]


Basin Diagnostic Tour [lower basin]basin]

Water scarcity considered the largest problem for irrigationgWater fees and water quality are also importantIncreased competition with urban-industrial and environmental water usesenvironmental water usesZero tillage as one strategy to save water and labor, adoption for maize and wheatM t f t ti [ ll l dMost farmers are part-time [small land area, many non-farm employment opportunities]Climate change potential future threat –

i f t ld t d iexperience of more extreme cold events during winter and reduced runoff despite stable rainfallRelatively low poverty in Henan and Shandong

i [d t b i ]INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

provinces [downstream basin]

PROJECT DETAILSImplementation Process

WP0 Phase I• Data/Project/Models Review/Basin TourWP0 Phase I• Data/Project/Models Review/Basin TourData/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour• Project Design• Conceptual Framework • Development of Tools & Methods STA W

P-A

lternative

Data/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour• Project Design• Conceptual Framework • Development of Tools & Methods STA W

P-A

lternative

WP1 Water Poverty

Mapping & Analysis

Ranking of alternative Scenario

outcomes to d t i

WP2 Water Availability and Access

AKEH

OLD

ER

P5SC

ENAR

Ie intervention

WP1 Water Poverty

Mapping & Analysis

Ranking of alternative Scenario

outcomes to d t i

WP2 Water Availability and Access

AKEH

OLD

ER

P5SC

ENAR

Ie interventiony

determine

High Potential Interventions

WP3 Water Productivity Analysis – Basin Model

DIA

LOG

UE

IO A

NA

LYSIns, im

pacts,

Phase IIy

determine

High Potential Interventions

WP3 Water Productivity Analysis – Basin Model

DIA

LOG

UE

IO A

NA

LYSIns, im

pacts,

Phase II

WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation

WP4 Institutional Analysis

Sand CB

A -

WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation

WP4 Institutional Analysis

Sand CB

A -


WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation Platform SHARED VISION MODELING

WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation Platform SHARED VISION MODELING

WORK PACKAGES

1) Assessment of water poverty in the YRB1) Assessment of water poverty in the YRB2) Analysis of water availability and access3) Analysis of agricultural water productivity3) Analysis of agricultural water productivity4) Institutional analysis5) I t ti l i5) Intervention analysis6) Development and application of the

knowledge baseknowledge base


WP1 Methodology: Measuring Poverty

Three poverty measures will be used: p y• the headcount index • the poverty gap index • the squared poverty gap index

The poverty measures will be used to d l d fil fdevelop and map poverty profiles of population at the basin and sub-basin levels which are a useful way oflevels, which are a useful way of summarizing information on the levels of poverty and characteristics of the poor.


poverty and characteristics of the poor.

WP1 Methodology: Assessing Water PovertyPoverty

The framework to analyze the linkage y gbetween poverty and water will involve multivariate regression analysis through

fmodeling the determinants of household welfare


WP1 Methodology: Poverty Mapet odo ogy o e ty ap

Use statistical small area estimationUse statistical, small-area estimation (SAE), techniques• Produces readily interpretable estimatesProduces readily interpretable estimates• Statistical precision can be gauged• Encouraging results to dateg g• But, extensive data requirements

[combination of household-level data of Population Census and householdPopulation Census and household expenditure data]


WP2 - Methodologiesg

Large body of information on [spatial/temporal] distribution of water

il bilit d t h davailability and water hazardsUse SWAT-BNU to estimate rainfall-runoff [sediment and human interactions][sediment and human interactions]Will feed into aggregated existing Yellow River Hydrologic ModelRiver Hydrologic Model


Lanzhou upstreamRunoff: 364; Per.: 55.6%

Kuye RiverRunoff:10.34;Per.: 1.5%

Wuding RiverRunof:14.1;Per.: 2.2%

Sanchuan RiverRunoff:6.63;Per.: 1%Unit：

Runoff:×108 m3

Wei RiverRunoff:120.7; Per.: 18.4%

Yiluo RiverRunoff:33.1; Per.: 5.%

Qin RiverRunoff:19.1;Per.: 2.9%

SWAT-BNU - Runoff percentage: 86.6%

Human interventions reduce water availability over time

800900

1000m

3 )

HuayuankouLijin1950s~60s Avg.1980s~90s Huayuankou Avg.1980 90 Liji A

400500600700

Run

off (

108 m 1980s~90s Lijin Avg.

100200300400

Ann

ual R 30% off

60% off

0100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000


WP3: Combined Modeling Framework

WP3 Methodologies –Water ProductivityWater Productivity

WP for different sectors(water transfer issues)

WP for upstream vsdownstream regions(water allocation issues)

WP for areas with different levels of incomes(poverty issues)(p y )


(1) Evolution and determinantsWP4 FRAMEWORK

Water management & Water allocation, water rightsWater management &institutional arrangement

Water allocation, water rights& water pricing policies

(2) Impacts

Access to Water productivity Poverty

Food security

Environment securitywater productivity y security security

Other socio-economic, institutional and physical factors

(3) Possible water policy and institutional changes

WP4 OutputsWP4 Outputs…

Documentation of policy objectives, policy p y j p yinstruments, and policy actions where these affect the access and productivity of water, poverty alleviation, food security and p y , yenvironmental security

Documentation of legal frameworksDocumentation of legal frameworks, institutional arrangements and governance processes that effect access and productivity of water poverty alleviation food security andwater, poverty alleviation, food security and environmental security


WP4 Outputs…

Documentation of institutional

WP4 Outputs…

Documentation of institutional innovations that would be needed to unlock water productivity potential p y pneeded to alleviate poverty and enhancing food and environmental security


WP5: Intervention Analysis

Y R C C & S W A TW a te r

L a nd u se / c ro p p in gp a tte rn s Y R C C & S W A T

W a te r

L a nd u se / c ro p p in gp a tte rn s Y R C C & S W A T

W a te r

L a nd u se / c ro p p in gp a tte rn s

A c c o u n tin g

W ate r a ccou n ting &A g ricu ltu ra l

w a te r

W a te r p ro d u c tiv ity[e c on o m ic &

p h ys ica l]

L ive s tock ogue

E n v iro n m e n ta l f lo w s

Irr ig a tio n

S C E N A R IO A N A L Y S IS

A c c o u n tin g


w a te r


p h ys ica l]

L ive s tock ogue


Irr ig a tio n


A c c o u n tin g


w a te r


p h ys ica l]

L ive s tock ogue


Irr ig a tio n


E c o n o m ic -

w a te r a va ila b ility &

a cc ess

L ive s tockIrr ig a te d c rop sR a in fe d c rop s

(F ish )

ns &

Pol

icy

Dia

lIrr ig a tio n d e ve lo p m en t

N o n a g ricu ltu ra l w a te r d e m a n d

WE c o n o m ic -


a cc ess


(F ish )

ns &

Pol

icy

Dia



WE c o n o m ic -


a cc ess


(F ish )

ns &

Pol

icy

Dia



WIn s titu tio n a l-A g ro n o m ic -

E q u a tio n s ys te m s

Inst

itutio

n

In s titu tio na l a n a lys is

M a c ro /S ec to ra l a ndT ra d e p o lic ies

W a te r p o ve rty

Im pa c tsd is tr ibu te d

b y g en de r an d

H IG HP R IO R IT Y

IN T E R -V E N T IO N S

In s titu tio n a l-A g ro n o m ic -


Inst

itutio

n



W a te r p o ve rty


b y g en de r an d

H IG HP R IO R IT Y


In s titu tio n a l-A g ro n o m ic -


Inst

itutio

n



W a te r p o ve rty


b y g en de r an d

H IG HP R IO R IT Y


K n o w le d g e b a s e

P o ve rty M a p p in ginco m e g ro up V E N T IO N S





S H A R E D V IS IO N M O D E L IN G / IN F O R M A T IO N S H A R IN G – / R E S U L T D IS S E M IN A T IO N



WP 5 – MethodologiesWP 5 Methodologies

Identification of high-impact interventionsIdentification of high impact interventions through scenario analysisIncluding trade and general agricultural g g gpolicies that relate to irrigated agricultureAnalyzing alternative province-level water

ll ti d lt ti t l tallocations and alternative sectoral water allocationsShared vision modelingShared vision modeling• 3 policy dialogues: U/s, M/s and D/s to discuss

scenarios and model parameters


WP6: Knowledge Base and Evaluation PlatformPlatform

Knowledge and DatabasesBasin Analytical Tool Pool Knowledge and DatabasesBasin Analytical Tool Pool Knowledge and Databases

Biophysical, socioeconomic, water poverty, water productivity – GIS platform

Spatial Statistical Qualitative

diagnostic study

Capacity

Analytical Tool PoolSWAT-BNU / YRCC

hydrology & Economic-hydrologic water modeling

Poverty Mapping / Regression Analysis

Knowledge and Databases Biophysical, socioeconomic, water poverty,

water productivity – GIS platform

Spatial Statistical Qualitative

diagnostic study

Capacity

Analytical Tool PoolSWAT-BNU / YRCC

hydrology & Economic-hydrologic water modeling

Poverty Mapping / Regression Analysis p

data surveys / Tabular data

data building

Field visits

Regression AnalysisInstitutional Analysis

Policy/Investment Analysis

pdata surveys /

Tabular datadata building

Field visits

Regression AnalysisInstitutional Analysis

Policy/Investment Analysis

Stakeholder dialogue

SCENARIO &INVESTMENT

ANALYSIS

Consultation Stakeholder dialogue

SCENARIO &INVESTMENT

ANALYSIS

Consultation

Development policy/

investmentProcesses

High Priority Interventions for enhanced food and ater sec rit

Outreach and Comm nication

Development policy/

investmentProcesses

High Priority Interventions for enhanced food and ater sec rit

Outreach and Comm nication Processesfood and water security Communication Processesfood and water security Communication

WP6 - Potential datasetsWP6 Potential datasets

Agroecological zones and potential (physiography, climate, soil constraints)Natural resources (rivers, catchements, wetlands, forests protected areas ecoregions etc)forests, protected areas, ecoregions etc)Land cover and land cover changeProduction systems (cropland/pasture/livestock oduc o sys e s (c op a d/pas u e/ es ocdistribution, irrigated/rainfed production)Population density and market access


WP6 - Potential datasetsWP6 Potential datasets

Poverty maps and water-related poverty indicators (WP1)Ag. Water availability maps under various level of hydroclimatic conditions intervention andhydroclimatic conditions, intervention and investment scenarios (WP2)Water productivity maps for individual rainfed and irrigated crops (WP3)Environmental and socioeconomical indicators under different interventions (WP5)under different interventions (WP5)Models and tools from this project?TO BE LINKED TO DIGITAL YELLOW RIVER


TO BE LINKED TO DIGITAL YELLOW RIVER

Land cover - GLC2000

PopulationPopulationDensity

Humidity

Transportation/Utility network

Crop Suitability maps - rainfed maize and rice

On the Adverse Challenges SideOn the Adverse Challenges Side

Hydrology: YRCC has no mandate on tributary flow data Poverty – Water agencies have no specific mandate related to poverty Socioeconomic data availability seems now

diffi lt t bt i b t ld b i dmore difficult to obtain but would be required for the among economists most accepted poverty mapping method (Small Areapoverty mapping method (Small Area Estimation Technique)


On the Adverse Challenges SideOn the Adverse Challenges Side

While sub-basin poverty lines would be necessary, Chinese Gov policy only supports use of 1 national poverty lineDomestic and industrial water benefit curve estimates will likely need to be synthesizedW t i h d t d dWater agencies have no mandate over and do not want to increase access to rainfed areas, where the poorest likely residewhere the poorest likely reside


On the Positive Challenges SideOn the Positive Challenges Side

Need to re-negotiate provincial water allocation –but no information on provincial water use benefitsLarge demand for knowledge on pro-poor water savings and willingness to experiment with watersavings and willingness to experiment with water rights tradingLarge interest in outcomes of tradeoff analysis among water-using sectorsSeveral Chinese Government policy changes [trade ag policies] that allow for useful scenario[trade, ag policies] that allow for useful scenario analysisNeed for information on climate change impacts


g p

yellow river basin focal project

Education