yorkshire show - july 2006 - tmi · in collaboration with dragon trail, cotri and pata. •the...

What‘s Happening What‘s Happening

in China?in China?

Summer Palace, Beijing TEAM Tourism Consulting

Dr Roger Carter, Managing Director,

TEAM Tourism Consulting

TMI Annual Convention

Brockenhurst, 8th & 9th October

2012

AgendaAgenda

• China, some key facts

• International tourism trends

• China as a destination - international and

domestic markets; tourism infrastructure

• China as a market for international travel

• Trends in the use of new media in China

• Reflections on China

• Conclusions

CHINA CHINA –– KEY FACTSKEY FACTS

China China –– key factskey facts • World’s most populous country – 1.33bn

• 23 provinces, five autonomous regions and four

direct-controlled municipalities

• More than 100 cities with population > 1m

• Many huge cities – and growing!

• Rapid emergence of a middle class

• A long history of civilised societies

• Key inventions: paper, gunpowder, credit

banking, the compass and paper money

Source: ‘Essential China Travel Trends 2012’ – Dragon Edition, A china Travel Trends

publication produced in collaboration with Dragon Trail, COTRI and PATA.

OECD forecastsOECD forecasts

The next 40 years will see major changes in country

rankings and shares of world GDP:

• In 2017 China surpasses the US to become the

largest economy in the world.

• The combined GDP of China and India exceeds

that of the major seven OECD economies (G7)

by around 2025;

• By 2050 it is 1½ times larger, whereas in 2010

these two countries accounted for less than one-

half of the G7’s GDP.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 91 database.

ShortShort--term economic forecastterm economic forecast

• China’s slowdown became more pronounced in late

2011 and early 2012 as first exports and then

inventories fell.

• But, output growth should pick up through 2012 and

stabilise at between 9 – 9 ½ % in 2013, with monetary

policy easing and increased outlays on social

spending supporting domestic demand.

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM

TRENDSTRENDS

Source: UNWTO, Tourism Highlights, 2012 Edition.

‘Tourism Towards 2030 Global Overview’ (Oct 2011).

CHINA AS A CHINA AS A

DESTINATION DESTINATION ––

INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL

VISITORS VISITORS

Top tourism destinations (in million)Top tourism destinations (in million)

Source: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer (Sept 2012).

International Tourism Receipts (US$ billion)International Tourism Receipts (US$ billion)

Source: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer (Sept 2012).

China Tourism Figures China Tourism Figures –– UNWTO UNWTO

(2010/2011)(2010/2011)

CHINA AS A DESTINATION CHINA AS A DESTINATION ––

DOMESTIC TOURISMDOMESTIC TOURISM

Domestic tourismDomestic tourism

• Domestic trips 2010 = >2.1bn

• Domestic tourism spending 2010 = RMB 1.26 trillion

Domestic tourismDomestic tourism

‘China is to become

the world’s largest

tourist destination within five to seven years’,

said UNWTO Secretary

General Taleb Rifai in

January 2011.

video at http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xjdvnk_china-tourism-growth_news

Total tourismTotal tourism

• International tourism:

– Arrivals 2010 = 55.7m

– Spending 2010 = US$45.8bn

• Domestic tourism:

– trips 2010 = >2.1bn

– spending 2010 = RMB 1.26 trillion = US$210bn

• Domestic = 97.5% of trips and 82.1% of spending

Source: TravelChinaGuide ‘China Tourism’ at

http://www.travelchinaguide.com/tourism/

CHINA AS A DESTINATION CHINA AS A DESTINATION ––

TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURETOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE

Not just airports …Not just airports …

• Roads and high speed trains

• Museums and theme parks

• Resorts, based on real estate

• Every city/province must have

one …..

• Build it and they will come …

• And then there are the hotels …

CHINA AS A MARKET FOR CHINA AS A MARKET FOR

INTERNATIONAL TRAVELINTERNATIONAL TRAVEL • •

Source: Presentation on the Chinese outbound tourism market, updated

for July 2012 by the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute.

International Tourism ExpenditureInternational Tourism Expenditure

• 2000 $13bn – 7th in world

• 2010 $55bn – 3rd in world

• 2011 $72.6bn – 3rd in world

Source: UNWTO, World Tourism Barometer (Sept 2012)

Source: ‘Essential China Travel Trends 2012’ – Dragon

Edition, A china Travel Trends publication produced

in collaboration with Dragon Trail, COTRI and PATA.

• The Chinese middle class

is already larger than the entire population of the

United States. In 15 years,

the Chinese middle class

will reach 800 million.

• It has changed, and will

continue to change, the

dynamics of the world we

live in, and have huge impacts on the global

travel and tourism industry.

Video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=GB&v=WTorBiqN52o

• Chinese tourists

are the world’s

biggest tax free

shoppers .

• Their spending

power remains

resilient.

• Top shopping

destinations for

China citizens will

be Singapore,

Hong Kong,

London, and

Paris.

TRENDS IN THE USE OF NEW TRENDS IN THE USE OF NEW

MEDIAMEDIA

Two girls surf the internet on their smartphones in Hong Kong. (File photo/CNS)

Source: http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1202&MainCatID=12&id=20120720000100

Worldwide internet populationWorldwide internet population

Source: - www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm

Basis: 2,267,233,742 Internet users on December 31, 2011

Copyright 2012, Miniwatts Marketing Group.

44.8% of internet users worldwide are based in Asia.

• China has the highest

number of internet users

worldwide. At Q1 2012, the number stood at just over

513 million, well ahead of

the US with its 245 million.

• But in terms of internet penetration, China lagged

behind other countries, with

only 38.4% of the

population online (only slightly above the world

average at 32.7%).

Source: eMarketer, March 2012,

http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=1008882&ecid=a6506033675d47f881651943c21c5ed4

• Chinese consumers will

spend more on online

travel in 2016 than the

rest of BRIC countries

combined.

• eMarketer estimates a

14.1% CAGR for online

travel sales in the

country for 2011-2016.

Source: eMarketer article ‘Online Travel

Grows in BRIC Countries, but Habits Differ’

(Sept. 2012)

http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=

1009376&ecid=a6506033675d47f881651943c

21c5ed4

Explosive growth in mExplosive growth in m--commercecommerce

Source: eMarketer article ‘Nascent Mcommerce in China Shows Explosive Growth’ (Sept. 2012)


• China and the US are

the top two countries in terms of number of

social network users.

• In 2011 China had 50%

more social networkers

than US, increasing to

150% more in 2014.

Source:


REFLECTIONS ON CHINAREFLECTIONS ON CHINA

Reflections on ChinaReflections on China

• People, urbanisation

• Cities, new cities

• Urban/rural disparities

• Aging population

• Traffic and pollution

• Road congestion and

standards of driving

• Congestion of the

skies


• Rampant capitalism, based mainly

on real estate

• Value systems with focus on

materialism, conspicuous wealth,

car ownership, obsession with

shopping – see video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=GB&v=WTorBiqN52o

• Ethics in short supply – “don’t trust

anyone”

• Aesthetics also in short supply


• Autocracy rules OK

– Lack of empowerment

– Delay then haste

– Last minute society – “always

expect the unexpected”

– Diary planning and time

management – largely unknown


• The importance of the relationship –

guanxi

• It takes time

• They like ideas

• Potential for corruption

Image source: Forbes article ‘Want

To Capitalize On China? You Better

Have Good Guanxi’ (March 2012)


• Simple pleasures - shopping, parks, eating

out – but getting more sophisticated by

the day

• Spectacular entertainment using high

tech

• Limited appreciation of heritage

• Limited customer care, market

awareness

• Standards geared more to the domestic

market – considerable room for

improvement

SOME BROAD CONCLUSIONSSOME BROAD CONCLUSIONS

Strategic conclusionsStrategic conclusions

• Economic power is shifting to the East, fast – it’s

palpable, it’s dynamic

• Already a leading tourism market, China has

the potentially to grow hugely – with the ripples

extending further afield

• Growing level of independent travel

• High spending, but average will reduce

• Internet predominates as a source of influence

• China will become the No. 1 destination and

has the potential to carry on growing – but will

have to improve its act considerably

Strategic conclusionsStrategic conclusions

• Dynamic, exciting, full of opportunities,

scary, challenging, frustrating, often

incomprehensible

• China is different in so many ways

• Not an easy place to do business – we

have to do it their way

• The game is a long one … the stakes are

high … so too are the hurdles

• What’s happening in China?

• Enough to blow your mind

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

For further information:For further information:

RogerCarter@[email protected]

0131 552 25480131 552 2548

www.teamwww.team--tourism.comtourism.com

www.newmediatrendwatch.comwww.newmediatrendwatch.com for analysis of Internet and other new media use in all major marketsfor analysis of Internet and other new media use in all major markets

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