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March 2016 For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: hps://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded by the U.S. Geological Survey through the Department of the Interior’s Climate Science Centers (CSCs) & the Naonal Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) help to understand how drought, sea level rise, extreme storms and other impacts of climate change will affect fish, wildlife, ecosystems and the human communies that depend on these important resources. Learn More at https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers & USGS National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center Alaska CSC Page 2 Pacific Islands CSC Page 11 Northwest CSC Page 3 Southwest CSC Page 13 North Central CSC Page 6 South Central CSC Page 16 Northeast CSC Page 8 Southeast CSC Page 19 Naonal Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center Page 21 58 New Projects 47 Partner Organizaons Funded through New Projects $6 M For New Projects (in 2015) Together, the CSCs & NCCWSC funded 58 new projects in 2015. These numbers are only a fracon of the total budget and total number of ongoing projects at the CSCs/NCCWSC. Funding totals in this document are 2015 dispersed funds and do not include future funding. More than

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Page 1: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people.

Announcing New Projects from the:

Projects funded by the U.S. Geological Survey through the Department of the Interior’s Climate Science Centers (CSCs) & the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) help to understand how drought, sea level rise, extreme storms and other impacts of climate change will affect fish,

wildlife, ecosystems and the human communities that depend on these important resources.

Learn More at https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Department of the Interior

Climate Science Centers & USGS National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center

Alaska CSC

Page 2

Pacific Islands CSC

Page 11

Northwest CSC

Page 3

Southwest CSC Page 13

North Central CSC

Page 6

South Central CSC Page 16

Northeast CSC

Page 8

Southeast CSC Page 19

National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Page 21

58

New Projects

47

Partner Organizations Funded through New Projects

$6 M For New Projects (in 2015)

Together, the CSCs & NCCWSC funded 58 new projects in 2015. These numbers are only a fraction of the total budget and total number

of ongoing projects at the CSCs/NCCWSC. Funding totals in this document are 2015 dispersed funds and do not include future funding.

More than

Page 2: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 2 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Alaska Climate Science Center

Ice2O: Assessing “Icefield-to-Ocean” Change in the Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest (PCTR) of Alaska Funding Recipients: USGS Alaska Science Center Projected climate change is expected to alter snow and glaciers in Alaska, having a number of important impacts on the state‟s water cycle. These impacts include changes to the flow of freshwater to the ocean, the delivery of nutrients to near-shore habitats via streams, and the flow of runoff that impacts coastal currents and ecosystems. Researchers will provide data and resources that will help managers and decision makers better understand the linkages between these changes and economically important species (e.g. herring and salmon), as well as other related impacts on tourism and recreation. Understanding Climate and Land Use Effects on Migratory Waterfowl Funding Recipients: USGS Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit The survival and productivity of migratory waterfowl that breed in Alaska is affected by the habitat quality and climate throughout their migration routes. Climate and land use can vary greatly along these routes (which can span thousands of miles), making it extremely difficult to unravel the direct effects of climate and land use change on these birds. The project team will identify what types of information are needed for the development of a focused and integrated multi-regional research program around this issue and will also aim to provide a way for researchers and managers to communicate about this topic.

How do Changing Glaciers Affect Hydrology & Streamflow? Jointly funded with the Northwest Climate Science Center Funding Recipients: USGS Branch of Regional Research Glacier changes significantly affect the hydrology of interior Alaska and areas in the Northwestern U.S. This project will expand the understanding of the role of glaciers in hydrology and will use this knowledge in two types of simulation models. Beyond improving the theoretical understanding of glacier-influenced hydrology and building operational tools for other scientists, this project will provide improved historical and projected statistics on streamflow to resource managers and private citizens. The researchers will share their findings through a web portal specifically designed to allow users to explore content, access data, and view results through data visualizations.

The Alaska CSC is hosted by

the University of Alaska - Fairbanks and supported by the

University of Alaska - Anchorage.

Alaska

$200,000

Alaska

$49,000

Alaska

Washington

$48,000

Credit: Wendy Zirngibl, USFS

Credit: Bruce Molnia, USGS

Funding numbers listed represent project funds distributed in 2015, and not funding totals for the life of the project. These

featured projects represent only a fraction of the overall Alaska CSC budget for Fiscal Year 2015. Additional funds are

distributed each year to support ongoing projects, educational programs, partnership building, and other initiatives.

Page 3: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 3 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Northwest Climate Science Center

Evaluating Management Actions to Increase the Effectiveness of Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Change Funding Recipients: Oregon State University; EcoAdapt Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing resource management. However, management practitioners often struggle with how to identify and prioritize specific “climate adaptation actions (CAAs)”. The goal of this project is to synthesize and evaluate the body of scientific knowledge on specific CAAs for adapting to sea-level rise to determine the conditions, timeframes, and geographic areas where they may be most effective for resource managers. The project team will utilize literature reviews and interviews, work with experts, and engage with natural resource managers and scientists from federal, state, tribal, and private entities in Washington and Oregon working to address sea-level rise.

Developing and Evaluating New Strategies for Watershed Restoration in the Great Basin: An Interagency Collaboration Jointly funded with the USDA Northwest Regional Climate Hub, U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, and the Great Basin Landscape Conservation Cooperative Funding Recipients: USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center The Great Basin of the western U.S. supports vast rangelands of sagebrush, juniper, and grasses, extensive dry montane forests, many wild and domestic ungulates, threatened fish, birds and other species, streams, and people. Despite its size and importance to the ranching and livestock communities who depend on it, comparatively little is known about this landscape in terms of its hydrology, plant and wildlife ecology, capacity to sustain human communities, and adaptability in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Project researchers will identify the ecological and social costs and benefits of both immediate hydrologic modifications such as low-profile ”artificial beaver dams” and longer-term modifications from the re-introduction of beavers to these landscapes. Use of these techniques by ranchers and public lands managers depends on these costs and benefits as well as social context and attitudes, which will also be assessed by the project.

How do Changing Glaciers Affect Hydrology & Streamflow? Jointly Funded with the Alaska Climate Science Center Funding Recipients: USGS Branch of Regional Research Glacier changes significantly affect the hydrology of interior Alaska and areas in the Northwestern U.S. This project will expand the understanding of the role of glaciers in hydrology and will use this knowledge in two types of simulation models. Beyond improving the theoretical understanding of glacier-influenced hydrology and building operational tools for other scientists, this project provides improved historical and projected statistics on streamflow to resource managers and private citizens. The researchers will share their findings through a web portal specifically designed to allow users to explore content, access data, and view results through data visualizations.

Oregon

Washington

$91,000

California

Idaho

Nevada

Oregon

Utah

$60,000

Alaska

Washington

$48,000

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

Credit: Steve Knick, USGS

Page 4: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 4 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Northwest Continued Climate Science Center

Improving the Accessibility of Data for Understanding Projected Climate, Hydrology, and Vegetation Changes in the Northwest Funding Recipients: University of Idaho In 2012, the Northwest Climate Science Center funded a project that resulted in several projections of changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation for the 21st century over the northwestern U.S. However, the sheer size of these datasets and the specific file format pose significant barriers to data access for many users, including natural and cultural resource managers. The project team will work to increase the accessibility of these datasets to a broader range of stakeholders by 1) adding improved functionality to the online data portal, 2) adding the ability to customize and visualize data, 3) working collaboratively with the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative to develop a case study of using the data, and 4) integrating some of the data into other conservation planning tools and data analysis portals.

Understanding the Relationships Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate Change, and Birds across the Great Basin Jointly Funded with the Southwest Climate Science Center Funding Recipients: University of California, Davis; Great Basin Landscape Conservation Cooperative As the distribution and abundance of non-native cheatgrass in the Great Basin has increased, the extent and frequency of fire in the region has also increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire are associated with loss of the sagebrush and native grasses and forbs in which many native animals, including the greater sage-grouse, breed and feed. Changes in current fire-related management practices (fuels treatments and post-fire restoration) have been suggested with the intent of increasing the probability of sage-grouse survival. However, the potential responses of other birds to these interventions have not been assessed rigorously. The project team will model current and future (to 2050) spatial interactions among cheatgrass cover and biomass, precipitation, and fire across the Great Basin and will model current and future cover of sagebrush and herbaceous vegetation. They will also examine how projected changes in fire regimes and fire and fuels treatments may affect habitat quality for breeding birds and the likelihood that the birds will occupy those habitats.

Can we Conserve Wetlands under a Changing Climate? Jointly Funded with the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative Funding Recipients: University of Washington Understanding the consequences of climate change on wetlands is critical for their sustainable management and conservation, particularly in arid regions such as the Columbia Plateau ecoregion. However, the data needed to model and understand climate impacts to wetland ecosystems has been hampered by the lack of accurate maps showing their spatial distribution and data on their historical hydrological dynamics. The research team will provide comprehensive data on wetland location, historical information, and projected climate change impacts on hydrology. The team will also work with managers to use this data and develop recommendations for conservation of wetlands across the Columbia Plateau.

Idaho

Oregon

Washington

$35,000

California

Idaho

Nevada

Oregon

Utah

$25,000

Idaho

Oregon

Washington

$15,000

Credit: Scott Shaff, USGS

Credit: Maureen Ryan, UW

Page 5: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 5 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Northwest Continued Climate Science Center

Bringing Together Scientists, Managers, Tribes, and Students for Climate Change Adaptation Funding Recipients: University of Idaho The Northwest Climate Conference annually brings together more than 250 researchers and practitioners from around the region to discuss scientific results, challenges, and solutions related to the impacts of climate on people, natural resources, and infrastructure. The conference also provides a forum for presenting emerging policy and management goals, as well as information needs related to regional climate impacts and adaptation. The DOI Northwest Climate Science Center sponsorship of the conference supports attendance for up to 50 students and tribal members.

Support for the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI) Tribal Leaders Summit on Climate Change Funding Recipients: Tribal Leadership Forum The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI) Tribal Leaders Summit on Climate Change was held on March 10-11, 2015, in Portland, Oregon. The Summit gathered tribal leaders to discuss climate change impacts; share tribal strategies, plans, and policies; discuss tribal climate change needs and funding; and identify strategies to promote tribal adaptation and resiliency to climate change. The DOI Northwest Climate Science Center provided support for this summit as a part of their efforts to better understand the specific vulnerabilities of Tribes to climate change and to help them adapt to these impacts.

Funding numbers listed represent project funds distributed in 2015, and not funding totals for the life of the project. These

featured projects represent only a fraction of the overall Northwest CSC budget for Fiscal Year 2015. Additional funds are

distributed each year to support ongoing projects, educational programs, partnership building, and other initiatives.

The Northwest CSC is hosted by three primary university

partners:

Oregon State University, the University of Washington, and

the University of Idaho.

Idaho

Oregon

Washington

$5,000

Oregon

$5,000

Credit: Jason Kreitler, USGS

Page 6: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 6 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

North Central Climate Science Center

Assessing the Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to Drought and Supporting Drought Preparedness Funding Recipients: University of Nebraska - Lincoln Researchers will conduct an interdisciplinary, technical assessment of key social and ecological vulnerabilities, risks, and response capacities of the Wind River Indian Reservation (WRIR) to drought and climate change. This assessment will help in the development of decision tools and to support drought preparedness as well as educational programming about drought that is guided by specific tribal needs, Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), and indigenous observations of drought. This project has foundational partnerships between the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes of the WRIR, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Colorado State University and others.

Understanding Grassland Conversion to Cropland in the Context of Changing Climate Patterns Funding Recipients: Iowa State University What remains of the United States prairie ecosystem is threatened by economic forces and a changing climate. Grassland conversion to cropland (“land switching”) in the Dakotas would imperil nesting waterfowl among other species and further impair water quality in the Mississippi watershed. The team will provide practical analytical tools to assess the likelihood of grassland conversion to cropping and of the costs of protecting these lands under different climate and economic scenarios. These tools and insights will help grassland conservation managers on identifying lands to target for grassland protection incentives under alternative climate and economic scenarios.

Developing Future Climate Scenarios for Central North Dakota and Southwestern South Dakota Funding Recipients: Colorado State University, USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, USGS Fort Collins Science Center “Scenario planning” is a tool used to assess a range of plausible future climate conditions to help make resource management decisions. However, selecting, acquiring, synthesizing, and scaling climate information for scenario planning requires significant time and skills. This project has three goals for two focal areas in the Great Plains region (southwestern South Dakota in the vicinity of Badlands National Park, and central North Dakota in the vicinity of Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site): synthesize climate data into 3-5 distinctly different but plausible future climate summaries that are relevant to local land management units; and use these summaries to further develop quantitative climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and simulation models.

Wyoming

$264,300

Iowa

Minnesota

North Dakota

South Dakota

$160,900

North Dakota

South Dakota

$78,500

Credit: USGS

Credit: Dennis Rosenkranz, USGS

Page 7: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 7 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

North Central Continued Climate Science Center

Informing Adaptation Strategies for Maintaining Landscape Connectivity for Northern Rockies Wildlife Funding Recipients: USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center The U.S. Northern Rockies support a large amount of native wildlife, and survival of these populations depends on connections between natural landscapes. Connected landscapes support current migration and dispersal of wildlife as well as future shifts in species ranges that will be necessary due to changes in climate. Working in partnership with state and federal resource managers and private land trusts, the project team seeks to understand how future climate change may alter habitat composition of important connection areas and how wildlife species of concern are expected to respond to these changes. The team will also develop strategies to help stakeholders manage public and private lands in ways that support connected landscapes and explore how well existing management plans and efforts are expected to support crucial connections for wildlife.

Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Habitat Under Climate Change Funding Recipients: Montana State University The future of sage-grouse depends on the future of sagebrush and we currently have limited ability to anticipate the impacts of climate change on sagebrush populations. The goal of this project is to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of big sagebrush in order to inform conservation planning, and sage-grouse management in particular, across the Intermountain West. A novel aspect of this work is the synthesis of models based on spatial, temporal, and mechanistic relationships between climate and sagebrush cover. The project will culminate in a working group meeting bringing together land managers and researchers to draft management recommendations.

Idaho

Montana

Wyoming

$42,100

Arizona

California

Colorado

Idaho

Montana

Nevada

New Mexico

Oregon

Utah

Washington

Wyoming

$30,400

Funding numbers listed represent project funds distributed in 2015, and not funding totals for the life of the project. These featured projects represent only a fraction of the overall North Central CSC budget for

Fiscal Year 2015. Additional funds are distributed each year to support ongoing projects, educational programs,

partnership building, and other initiatives.

The North Central CSC is hosted by Colorado State University and is

supported by several consortium members:

the University of Colorado - Boulder, Colorado School of Mines,

Iowa State University, the University of Nebraska - Lincoln, Kansas

State University, Montana State University, the University of

Montana, and the University of Wyoming.

Credit: John Mosesso, USGS

Credit: Steve Knick, USGS

Page 8: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 8 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Northeast Climate Science Center

Examining Management Strategies for Streams and Floodplains to Increase Resilience to Climate Change Funding Recipients: University of Massachusetts This research project seeks to identify opportunities that increase the resilience of human communities and ecosystems to climate change. The research will identify dynamic and adaptive solutions to managing river flows that allow continued provision of valuable infrastructure services such as flood control, hydropower, and water supply, while also supporting thriving river ecosystems – both today and into the future. The project team will: 1) examine the effects of land use and climate change on streamflow; 2) develop economic and physical measures of floodplain performance; 3) evaluate how the effectiveness of green infrastructure strategies, including floodplain protection and storage, would alter these effects, and 4) develop a framework that incorporates short-term streamflow forecasting, environmental services damage functions, and adaptive management strategies.

How will Maple Syrup Production be Shaped by Climate Change? Funding Recipients: University of Massachusetts Maple syrup production is increasing rapidly, with demand rising as more people appreciate this natural sweetener. Because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple syrup as climate changes throughout the region. Informed by the needs of state and federal resource managers, tribal groups, and other maple syrup producers, the research team will examine the chemical composition of sap collected throughout the Northeast and relate this to variation in climate across the region. They will also examine sap from red maple trees, an alternative to sugar maple that is increasingly used to make syrup, and a tree species that is expected to be less sensitive to climate change. Ultimately, this project will make projections of maple syrup quality under future climate conditions and under a variety of management strategies.

Developing Climate Change Scenarios to Support Northeast and Midwest Tribes with Planning and Adaptation Funding Recipients: College of Menominee Nation The primary activity of this project is to develop a set of future climate change scenarios for individual tribes in the Northeast and Midwest regions. The scenarios will serve both to identify climate change impacts unique to each participating Tribe and to propose solutions for adaptation and mitigation that are relevant for each scenario. The scenarios can be used as the basis for motivating more extensive Tribal adaptation plans, justifying future Tribal adaptation/mitigation projects, and creating the foundation for more sophisticated collaborations between Tribes, other parties and the Northeast Climate Science Center that harness robust risk analysis, decision tools and strategic foresight methods.

Connecticut

Massachusetts

New Hampshire

$150,000

Maryland

Massachusetts

New Hampshire

Vermont

Virginia

$150,000

Connecticut

Indiana

Iowa

Maine

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

New York

Rhode Island

Virginia

Wisconsin

$150,000

Credit: Joshua Rapp

Credit: Andrea Miehls, USGS

Page 9: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 9 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Northeast Continued Climate Science Center

Understanding Species Vulnerability to Climate Change by Considering Life History and Evolution Funding Recipients: USGS Leetown Science Center Climate change poses a variety of threats to biodiversity. Most efforts to assess the likely impacts of climate change on biodiversity try to rank species based on their vulnerability under changed environmental conditions. However, these efforts have generally not considered the ability of organisms to adjust their phenotype (an individual‟s observable traits) to the changing environment (either by evolutionary or non-evolutionary methods). Considering these potential adjustments to phenotype could substantially change a species‟ “vulnerability ranking”. The project team will draw from a wide range of existing data and use a series of models that will allow a detailed comparison of vulnerability to climate change with and without evolutionary adaptive change and will include some possible management actions that augment a species‟ capacity for this adaptive change. This research will fill a major knowledge gap and provide a substantial step forward in species vulnerability assessments.

An Assessment of Suitable Lake and Stream Fish Habitat in Warming Waters Funding Recipients: USGS Center for Integrated Data Analytics; University of Wisconsin Water temperatures are warming in many lakes and streams, resulting in a loss of many native fish. When water warms, given clear passage, coldwater stream fish can take refuge upstream in cooler areas and lake fish can also move to cooler deeper waters. To date, assessments of the effects of climate change on economically-valuable fishes have mostly ignored lakes, and focused on streams individually. Because surface waters represent an interconnected network of aquatic habitats, an integrated assessment of both stream and lake temperatures under climate change is necessary for informed decision making. The project team will focus on assessing historical and future thermal habitat in nearly ten thousand lakes in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These data will be combined with existing observations of fish, stream connectivity, and stream temperature data collected by partners to predict suitable fish thermal habitat across lakes and streams in the future.

Connecticut

Delaware

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kentucky

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

Vermont

Virginia

West Virginia

Wisconsin

$93,000

Michigan

Minnesota

Wisconsin

$87,000

Credit: Dr. L. Scott Mills, NCSU

Credit: Abigail Lynch, USGS

Page 10: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 10 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Northeast Continued Climate Science Center

Studying the Red-Backed Salamander to Understand the Resiliency of Forest Ecosystems to Climate Change Funding Recipients: USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center Climate change will have sweeping impacts across the northeastern U.S., yet there are key gaps in our understanding about whether species will be able to adapt to this changing environment. This project will illuminate local and region-wide changes in forest ecosystems by studying the red-backed salamander, a species that is a strong indicator of forest conditions. This study will identify habitat and forest characteristics that improve the resiliency of forest-dwelling amphibians and other wildlife to climate change. The team will observe the salamanders to understand how individuals and populations respond to spatial, seasonal, and annual differences in environmental conditions across the species‟ range.

Evaluating Changes to Coastal Beaches and Marshes Using Unmanned Aerial Systems Funding Recipients: USGS Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center The purpose of this project is to develop mapping, data processing, and analysis capabilities for pilot surveys of coastal beaches and marshes using Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). UAS present a new and relatively untapped resource for coastal surveying within the USGS and the scientific community. Beach and marsh systems both experience acute and chronic coastal changes and provide critical habitat to a number of species of concern, such as the federally-listed piping plover. The project is designed to provide a low-risk, low-cost means to explore the utility of UAS for coastal mapping on beaches and marshes, and develop a methodology and capacity to acquire, process, and analyze the data. The proposed project will be a collaboration between USGS scientists and technical staff, and Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL) researchers and students.

Connecticut

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

New Hampshire

New York

Pennsylvania

Virginia

$37,000

Massachusetts

$16,000

Funding numbers listed represent project funds distributed in 2015, and not funding totals for the life of the project. These featured projects represent only a

fraction of the overall Northeast CSC budget for Fiscal Year 2015. Additional funds are distributed each year to

support ongoing projects, educational programs, partnership building, and other initiatives.

The Northeast CSC is hosted by the University of Massachusetts -

Amherst and is supported by several consortium members:

the University of Minnesota, the University of Wisconsin - Madison,

the University of Missouri - Columbia, Columbia University, the

College of Menominee Nation, and the Marine Biological Laboratory.

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

Credit: Matthew Kirwan, USGS

Page 11: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 11 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Pacific Islands Climate Science Center

Understanding how Changes in Fog Patterns will Influence Water and Ecological Systems in Hawai'i’s Mountains Funding Recipients: University of Hawai'i at Mānoa; USGS Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center A better knowledge is needed among scientists and managers to understand the effects of “cloud water interception (CWI)” (the process by which clouds come into contact with vegetation and leave behind droplets of water) on plants, groundwater recharge, and surface water flows. The project team will make measurements of fog (clouds in contact with plants), wind, fog interception, soil moisture, and the role of fog in plant water use and survival. Results from this study will support and feed into a complimentary project (“How will Climate Change Impact the Transfer of Water from Clouds and Fog to Vegetation in Hawai„i‟s Mountains?” below) by helping to map the present and future patterns of CWI statewide.

Understanding and Communicating the Effect of Climate Change on the Frequency of Coastal Flooding Funding Recipients: University of Hawai'i at Mānoa “Coastal inundation” occurs when normally dry, low-lying coastal lands are flooded, often due to severe storms. Increasing numbers of these hazardous inundation events due to climate change is a serious threat to the culture, habitat, and infrastructure of the Hawaiian and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands. This project will provide projections in 3-6 month seasonal windows of estimated coastal inundation events in areas of high population and infrastructure in the Pacific Island communities, as well as outlooks on the occurrence of severe inundation in a longer time period considering climate change.

Assessing the Sustainability of Culturally Important Marine Sites in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands Funding Recipients: University of Guam Coastal marine areas in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) are both culturally and economically important, but are expected to be impacted by changing sea temperatures and ocean chemistry due to climate change. Researchers will use climate models to produce projections of these changes and to develop reports describing the outlook of marine sites in Guam and CNMI. The outlook reports will describe the current state of ecosystems in these areas and the expected changes to them in the future, as well as forecast the sustainability of the sites under current and alternate management practices.

How will Climate Change Impact the Transfer of Water from Clouds and Fog to Vegetation in Hawai'i’s Mountains? Funding Recipients: University of Hawai'i at Mānoa At a certain elevation range in Hawai'i‟s mountains, clouds, propelled by strong winds, come into contact with vegetation and leave behind droplets of water on the plants‟ stems and leaves (adding important additional water to these ecosystems, beyond the normal rainfall). The amount of water accumulated through this process, called cloud water interception (CWI), can vary greatly from place to place. Researchers will develop a map showing the complex spatial patterns of CWI in Hawai'i and will use this map to assess the projected changes of CWI patterns by the later 21st century under both weak and strong climate change scenarios. This project builds on the project “Understanding how Changes in Fog Patterns will Influence Water and Ecological Systems in Hawai'i‟s Mountains”, shown above.

Hawai'i

$230,000

Hawai'i

$119,000

Guam

Northern

Mariana

Islands

$107,000

Hawai'i

$100,000

Credit: Greg Winters, USGS

Page 12: Your neighborhood. Real answers. - Amazon Web Services · Your neighborhood. Real answers. Climate science for wildlife & people. Announcing New Projects from the: Projects funded

Page 12 March 2016

For a more comprehensive list of CSC & NCCWSC funded projects, please visit: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc-list

Pacific Islands Continued Climate Science Center

Understanding Sediment Pollution & Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in West Maui, Hawai'i Funding Recipients: University of Hawai'i at Mānoa; USGS Western Geographic Science Center Coral reef ecosystems of West Maui support a vibrant tourist industry and provide tangible economic benefits to the community. This economy depends on a healthy coral ecosystem, which is increasingly under multiple threats from global climate change and local land based pollution (e.g. from runoff). The project team will examine streams that produced sediment runoff into the ocean in 2014 and will estimate erosion rates along these streams. This information will be used in models to estimate future erosion, which in turn can be used to focus management efforts on the largest sources of sediment erosion.

Climate Change and Drought - Dynamics and Influences on Ecosystems and Society in Hawai'i Funding Recipients: U.S. Forest Service Climate change and drought will exert a growing influence on Hawai'i‟s landscapes, watersheds, and near shore areas in the future. Resulting changes will be magnified as climate change also impacts the spread of non-native and invasive plants and the frequency of fires. In the Hawaiian Islands, the magnitude and spatial distributions of past climate variability and droughts are poorly quantified, making it difficult to understand and predict future changes to local ecosystems. In this project, the research team will build on a number of recently developed products and tools to synthesize our understanding of past climate events and initial assessments of trends for current and future drought. This information will be used to assess the significance of climate change and drought to human communities, Hawaiian culture and history, and regional law and policy.

Collaborations to Support the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) Funding Recipients: East-West Center Natural resource managers working with freshwater, coastal flooding and hazards, and marine and terrestrial ecosystems need frequently updated summaries of regional and local climate trends, projections, and impacts to better include future climate in their planning strategies. To address this need, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center, along with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‟s Pacific Islands Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments, the DOI Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative, the NOAA Regional Climate Services Directors, and the East-West Center are collaborating to support the development of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment, which contributes to the U.S. National Climate Assessment. The assessment focuses on climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the Hawaiian archipelago and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands.

Hawai'i

$48,000

Hawai'i

$40,000

Hawai'i

$32,000

Funding numbers listed represent project funds distributed in 2015, and not funding totals for the life of the project. These

featured projects represent only a fraction of the overall Pacific Islands CSC budget for Fiscal Year 2015. Additional funds are distributed each year to support ongoing projects, educational

programs, partnership building, and other initiatives.

The Pacific Islands CSC is hosted by the University of Hawai'i

at Mānoa and works closely with the University of Hawai'i at

Hilo and the University of Guam.

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

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Southwest Climate Science Center

Do Current Forest Management Practices Increase Forest Resistance to Drought? Funding Recipients: University of California - Davis; USGS Western Ecological Research Center; U.S. Forest Service; University of California - Berkeley Otherwise undisturbed forests of the western U.S. are experiencing increased tree mortality linked to drought and rising temperatures. Reductions in tree density following tree thinning (from mechanical treatments, prescribed fire, or both) have been widely presumed to increase resistance to drought (because with fewer trees, there is less competition for water and sunlight). Yet this proposition has remained largely untested, meaning land managers do not have the basic information they need for critical cost-benefit analyses. This project integrates extensive field data with remote sensing and GIS to help managers understand if current thinning practices are sufficient to promote forest health under severe drought conditions or if thinning prescriptions need to be more aggressive to meet this goal under increasingly frequent drought. Together, this study and the following project (“Does Prescribed Fire Increase a Forest‟s Resistance to Drought?”) take complementary and contrasting approaches to similar problems, ensuring more robust and reliable answers to fundamentally important questions at the science/management interface.

Does Prescribed Fire Increase a Forest’s Resistance to Drought? Funding Recipients: University of Arizona; USGS Western Ecological Research Center Prescribed fire in southwestern forests reduces future fire risk partly by removing small trees, shrubs, and surface litter, but it is unknown whether this practice makes the remaining trees more or less resilient to stressors such as drought. Researchers will work to understand whether current practices for prescribed forest fires are actually helping forest resilience, if the benefits of prescribed fire vary among tree species and sizes, and if a forest‟s resistance to drought increases the longer it‟s been since the fire event. Results will help land managers make informed decisions about how to allocate limited funds in the face of drought and climate changes.

Evaluation of Winter Precipitation and Streamflows in the Salt-Verde River Basins using Decadal Climate Simulations Funding Recipients: University of Arizona The Salt and Verde River basins in northeastern Arizona are a vital source of fresh water for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area and for two Tribal reservations that rely on the basins‟ natural resources for their livelihood. Winter precipitation in this region is critical for replenishing reservoirs, maintaining natural ecosystem health, and alleviating droughts. However, intense storms can also cause flooding which can pollute water sources. This project will result in a forecast for Native American tribes of near-future water availability (taking into account changing precipitation patterns) in their reservations to allow them to plan economic activities, which heavily rely on snowpack accumulated during the cold months. The forecasts will also be used in planning and adaptation by water agencies in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

California

$401,000

Arizona

California

New Mexico

Utah

$260,000

Arizona

$181,000

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

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Southwest Continued Climate Science Center

Evaluating the Impact of Stakeholder Engagement on the Development of “Usable” Climate Science Funding Recipients: University of Arizona; Desert Research Institute Researchers will examine the impact of stakeholder engagement on the development of scientific products and tools that are actually useful and usable to stakeholders and resource managers. The researchers will study both the processes by which scientists and resource managers collaborate, and the outcomes of those collaborations. This project aims to capture the key variables necessary to the successful production of climate knowledge that is usable and directly applicable to resource management. This study and evaluation will be conducted in the context of a high-need, high-stakes environment: resource management under California‟s current exceptional drought conditions.

Supporting Tribal Capacity & Adaptation Initiatives in the Southwest Funding Recipients: University of Arizona In the Southwest, Native American tribes are already experiencing a range of impacts that are at least partially related to climate change including serious water supply and water quality issues in the context of prolonged drought; reduced ability to grow or collect important traditional crops and raw materials; and health impacts from heat waves, dust storms, and smoke from wildfires. The aim of this project is to develop a partnership that leverages existing and emerging tribal engagement capacity within the University of Arizona‟s Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions (CCASS) and identifies emergent opportunities now possible with enhanced investment. CCASS will expand the current work of the Department of the Interior‟s Southwest Climate Science Center (SW CSC) and build on prior investments of the University of Arizona-based and NOAA-funded Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), while building on the programs and services of the CCASS/Haury Native Nations Climate Adaptation Program.

Assessing the Impact of Conservation and Restoration Actions in Riparian Areas of the Southwest Funding Recipients: University of Arizona; USGS Arizona Water Science Center Ideally, resource managers would have decision support tools and models that take into account all related hydrologic and ecological processes to better understand how each management action would propagate through the environment. However, because resources are limited, these comprehensive tools are often not available, potentially causing errors in predictions of hydrologic outcomes and ecological function, severely limiting a manager‟s ability to identify how restoration and conservation actions may make a system more resilient. The goal of this project is to develop a method for assessing the impact of conservation and restoration actions in riparian areas in the Southwest. The tool will quantify the strength of the connections between different ecohydrologic processes and indicate if a restoration action leads to higher resilience to climatic change.

California

$164,250

Arizona

Nevada

New Mexico

Utah

$100,400

Arizona

$80,000

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

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Southwest Continued Climate Science Center

Understanding the Relationships Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate Change, and Birds across the Great Basin Jointly Funded with the Northwest Climate Science Center Funding Recipients: University of California, Davis; Great Basin Landscape Conservation Cooperative As the distribution and abundance of non-native cheatgrass in the Great Basin has increased, the extent and frequency of fire in the region has also increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire are associated with loss of the sagebrush and native grasses and forbs in which many native animals, including the greater sage-grouse, breed and feed. Changes in current fire-related management practices (fuels treatments and post-fire restoration) have been suggested with the intent of increasing the probability of sage-grouse survival. However, the potential responses of other birds to these interventions have not been assessed rigorously. The project team will model current and future (to 2050) spatial interactions among cheatgrass cover and biomass, precipitation, and fire across the Great Basin and will model current and future cover of sagebrush and herbaceous vegetation. They will also examine how projected changes in fire regimes and fire and fuels treatments may affect habitat quality for breeding birds and the likelihood that the birds will occupy those habitats.

The Impact of Drought on Waterbirds in the Central Valley of California Funding Recipients: USGS Western Ecological Research Center Scientists from the USGS Western Ecological Research Center, Point Blue Conservation Science, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service are partnering to learn how flooded wetland habitats (often agricultural) used as resting and feeding areas by waterfowl and shorebirds change throughout the year. During extreme drought conditions, the ability to provide sufficient water for wildlife often depends on the timing of agricultural water deliveries and decisions of whether to fallow croplands. Point Blue will develop near real-time tracking of waterbird habitats and USGS will connect this with near real-time tracking of waterfowl throughout the valley to learn which habitats the birds use and why. This will teach us how wetlands can be managed to provide the best possible habitat for waterbirds even during extreme drought, and inform water-allocation decisions by wildlife managers.

Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Funding Recipients: U.S. Forest Service Mountain ecosystems are at risk from climate change and may be experiencing accelerated warming relative to lower environments. Current understanding of the climate and ecosystem processes at different scales is limited, which constrains scientists‟ ability to accurately evaluate vulnerability or assess potential ecosystem changes in future climate change scenarios. The project team will use case-study ecosystems to study these processes, including: treeline ecotones and whitebark pine, rocky ecosystems and American pika, and subalpine limber pine throughout the late Holocene. Locations include the eastern Sierra Nevada, CA, and mountains of the western and central Great Basin, NV, and CA.

California

Idaho

Nevada

Oregon

Utah

$25,000

California

$18,000

California Nevada

$12,000

Funding numbers listed represent project funds distributed in 2015, and not funding totals for the life of the project. These

featured projects represent only a fraction of the overall Southwest CSC budget for Fiscal Year 2015. Additional funds

are distributed each year to support ongoing projects, educational programs, partnership building, and other initiatives.

The Southwest CSC is hosted by the University of Arizona and

is supported by several consortium members:

the University of Colorado, University of California - Davis,

the University of California - Los Angeles, Scripps Institute

of Oceanography, and Desert Research Institute.

Credit: Joseph Fontaine

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South Central Climate Science Center

Colorado

New Mexico

Texas

$303,500

New Mexico

Oklahoma

Texas

$140,400

Oklahoma

Texas

$112,500

Improving Resilience to Drought in the Rio Grande River Basin Funding Recipients: University of Oklahoma Understanding how to manage scarce water during drought is one of the great challenges we face as a society associated with climate change. The Rio Grande River Basin presents one of the biggest challenges, in this regard, for the United States and Mexico. The researchers involved in this project seek to understand how different factors (management, laws, human demand, etc.) affect 10 different sections of the Rio Grande - from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico - in order to identify how different management strategies and human uses of the River can be better coordinated and to help managers understand the costs and benefits of their decisions - for themselves and for others upstream and downstream.

Quantifying Future Precipitation in the South Central Region for Stakeholder Planning Funding Recipients: Texas Tech University The South Central U.S. is home to diverse climates and ecosystems, strong agricultural and energy sectors, and fast-growing urban areas. All share a common and critical need for water, which is fast becoming an increasingly scarce resource, as aquifers shrink and users multiply. This project aims to improve scientific understanding of the local and large-scale processes that bring rain and moisture to the region, and determine how future precipitation might be affected by drought. Lessons learned from this work will be used to inform the long-term forecasts offered by the Southern Regional Climate Center and the South Central Climate Science Center to help make complex climate information and analyses more approachable, understandable, and actionable for policy-makers, planners, and managers.

Changing Fire Regimes and Management Strategies in the South Central Plains Funding Recipients: University of Oklahoma Fires are common and a natural part of the ecosystem of the South Central Plains, but fire suppression has resulted in a build up in fuel loads, creating wildfires that burn hotter and have more severe and lasting impacts on the landscape. While a great deal of research is ongoing, this research needs to be better connected and communicated to land managers. This project will conduct an analysis of days which are (a) suitable for prescribed burns, or (b) of high wildfire potential, using historical climate observations and projections from climate models. A team of fire researchers led by Oklahoma State University and Texas A&M University will also convene a summit of leading researchers, agencies, and landowners to discuss the results from this analysis and the safe and proper application of fire in a changing and variable climate.

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

Credit: Pixabay

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South Central Continued Climate Science Center

Understanding Uncertainty of Climate Projections for the South Central U.S. Funding Recipients: University of Oklahoma; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab Global climate models (GCM) are representations of the main chemical, physical, and biological components of the global climate system. “Downscaling” techniques are often used to generate finer scale projections of climate variables, allowing users to view relevant information at a local scale. However, different sources of uncertainty can affect the downscaled projections. Scientists will assess the uncertainty associated with three downscaling techniques and three daily climate variables (precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature). The proposed work will produce multiple sets of downscaled climate projections of potential use in subsequent climate impacts analyses, and it will yield guidance promoting the informed use of downscaled climate products.

Assessing and Synthesizing River-Related Science, Management Policies and Planning Tools for the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Watershed Funding Recipients: University of California This project will assemble, review, and synthesize the scientific body of research and monitoring studies relevant to the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo (RGB) watershed, focusing on studies that concern streamflow, groundwater, geomorphology, aquatic ecology, riparian ecology, and human interactions with river ecosystems. This project will also assemble, review, and synthesize available water resource models applicable to the RGB that evaluate tradeoffs in meeting goals for human water demands and ecosystem recovery. These reports will be developed and made available to attendees of a planned Rio Grande Forum scheduled for November 2016.

Developing Local Climate Forecasts for Use in Long-Term Hydrologic Planning Funding Recipients: University of Oklahoma Across the Southern Great Plains, the future is expected to bring more severe droughts, more intense heavy rainfall events, and subsequently more flooding episodes. Potential changes in climate will adversely affect habitats, ecosystems, and landscapes as well as the fish and wildlife they support. But while today‟s global climate models (GCMs) provide generally accurate, large-scale projections, local predictions are notoriously imprecise, and impede proper, long-term adaptation planning. To address these challenges, this research will leverage the expertise of the University of Oklahoma, the South Central Climate Science Center, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to turn data from large-scale weather models into smaller-scale climate forecasts to provide more accurate local projections.

Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, And Early Career Researcher Training II Funding Recipients: University of Oklahoma Led by members of the South Central Climate Science Center university consortium, this project will build upon the successes of a 2014 training program to develop and implement professional development training for graduate students, post-docs, and early-career researchers. The training offers early-career researchers insight into how their research fits into the broader priorities of the region and is applicable to end user needs, and facilitates interdisciplinary interactions among peers. The goal is to remove the institutional barriers, or “silos,” at an influential time of development for these early-career professionals and to build a cohort who can continue networking across the region and who will eventually lead outcome-oriented, interdisciplinary research.

Arizona

Colorado

Kansas

Louisiana

Missouri

New Mexico

Oklahoma

Texas

$85,000

Colorado

New Mexico

Texas

$72,600

New Mexico

Oklahoma

Texas

$62,700

New Mexico

Oklahoma

Texas

$58,900

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

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South Central Continued Climate Science Center

Online, Interactive Educational Course on Climate Change Science & Management Funding Recipients: University of Oklahoma This project will develop an online, interactive course designed to provide an integrative understanding of the components of the climate system, the range of natural climate variability, external drivers of climate change, impacts of changing climate, and adaptation and mitigation policy options. The course will be freely available for anyone worldwide (including natural resource managers, tribal environmental professionals and others) to join in the online content and discussion; it also will be offered as a 3-credit, 3000-level (upper division undergraduate) course in the Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Oklahoma.

Soil Moisture-Based Drought Monitoring for the South Central Region Funding Recipients: Oklahoma State University Soil moisture is a critical part of understanding the impact of drought on ecological, hydrological, and agricultural systems. However, key research gaps currently prevent existing soil moisture measurements from being used to assess and mitigate drought impacts such as wildfire outbreaks, lost agricultural production, and degraded wildlife habitat. The objective of this project is to build the necessary scientific foundation for soil moisture-based drought monitoring in the South Central region and beyond. This improved monitoring will facilitate early detection and adaptive management, which research has shown are keys to reducing drought impacts on economies and ecosystems.

Training for Native Tribes of Louisiana and New Mexico on Understanding Climate in a Changing World Funding Recipients: Louisiana State University Tribal Nations are one of the most vulnerable populations to climate change in the United States and tribes have expressed a need for access to information and resources enabling them to make more scientifically informed decisions. The project team will develop and conduct multiple two-day climate training sessions for Native American tribes in Louisiana and New Mexico that will build upon previous successful climate training sessions in Oklahoma and Texas by the South Central Climate Science Center and Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program. The trainings will emphasize regionally specific scientific and social aspects of climate change that are relevant to the Tribal Nations‟ land management and planning decisions.

Oklahoma

Worldwide

$50,000

Oklahoma

Texas

$45,800

Louisiana

New Mexico

$44,000

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

Funding numbers listed represent project funds distributed in 2015, and not funding totals for the life of the project. These featured projects represent only a fraction of the overall South Central CSC budget for Fiscal Year 2015.

Additional funds are distributed each year to support ongoing projects, educational programs, partnership

building, and other initiatives.

The South Central CSC is hosted by the University of Oklahoma

and is supported by several consortium members:

Texas Tech University, Oklahoma State University, Chickasaw

Nation, Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Louisiana State University,

and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

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Southeast Climate Science Center

Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Funding Recipients: North Carolina State University; USGS Western Geographic Science Center; USGS Southeast Ecological Science Center National Wildlife Refuges along the east coast protect critical habitat and ecosystems for a host of wildlife species, but also contribute to essential goods and services that benefit coastal communities, businesses and individuals. Faced with sea-level rise and climate change, the role of coastal refuges to protect our nation‟s natural resources and provide ecosystem services is in jeopardy. This project will integrate the expertise of specialists in global-change science, coastal dynamics, resource economics and decision science to integrate management objectives, potential management actions, and relevant system models to prepare for and identify optimal decisions with respect to the different objectives.

Incorporating Climate Change into Southeast State & Regional Conservation Plans Funding Recipients: North Carolina State University This project will support the Southeastern Conservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS) effort, which aims to develop a collaborative network of conservation partners, shared conservation goals, and regional strategies to manage fish, wildlife, and other natural resources into the future. To help accomplish these goals, the project team will evaluate existing conservation plans and expected land and climate change impacts, and in collaboration with the Southeast conservation community, identify opportunities to incorporate landscape and climate change considerations into state and regional conservation actions. Issues facing selected focal systems, including pine savannah, will be addressed through structured workshops and decision analysis processes.

Understanding the Impact of Climate on Amphibians in Tropical Island Environments Funding Recipients: North Carolina State University Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species. Adaptation efforts are complicated by the lack of specific scientific guidance for decision makers due to the dearth of: (1) reliable climate change projections and, (2) species-specific climate sensitivity information. In 2013, the Southeast Climate Science Center began to address this through a project that is laying the foundation for more reliable climate change information by producing local-scale climate projections and collecting data on several amphibian species located in a target habitat conservation region in the western portion of Puerto Rico. To continue this work, this new project will focus on understanding the impact of climate on the distribution and survival of several amphibian species of conservation concern in Puerto Rico.

South

Carolina

$256,800

Alabama

Arkansas

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

Louisiana

Mississippi

Missouri

North Carolina

Oklahoma

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Virginia

West Virginia

Puerto Rico

U.S. Virgin

Islands

$241,500

Puerto Rico

$140,000

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

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Southeast Continued Climate Science Center

Climate Change and Cultural Resources at the Cape Lookout National Seashore Funding Recipients: North Carolina State University Cultural resources hold multiple and diverse values to local communities, visitors, and the public. Yet, sea-level rise and episodic storm events threaten many coastal cultural resources. Strategies for climate adaptation or mitigation need to incorporate evaluations of the vulnerability and uniqueness of these resources on a landscape. The project team will work with U.S. National Park Service personnel and other key stakeholders to use structured decision-making techniques to assess strategies for managing cultural resources within Portsmouth Village and Lookout Village at Cape Lookout National Seashore.

Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health: A Look at Urban Trees Funding Recipients: North Carolina State University Urban forests provide well-documented environmental, societal, and economic benefits in the United States. As cities expand onto land once occupied by rural forests, urban trees take on an even more vital role in mitigating global climate change, conserving biodiversity, and protecting human health. This project aims to support the development of decision-making tools to understand which trees best provide conservation value in a changing climate. The scientists will also explore the extent to which trees in cities can be used to predict heat-related threats to rural forests. They will also convene a working group to assess how urban environmental changes and tree cover affect human behavior and health.

Supporting Strategic Landscape Conservation Decisions in the U.S. Caribbean Funding Recipients: U.S. Forest Service; USGS North Carolina Cooperative Research Unit The Southeast Climate Science Center is supporting strategic planning of the Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative Steering Committee, which recently agreed to pursue conservation design and decision processes that ensure that local conservation decisions contribute to a landscape-scale vision and allow managers to evaluate tradeoffs and choices among important priorities and values when making decisions. Through this effort, geospatial information will be developed and delivered for managers, decision-makers, and the general public that includes geologic, ecologic, socio-economic, climate, and vulnerabilities and threats information.

North

Carolina

$134,700

North

Carolina

$125,000

U.S.

Caribbean

$70,000

Funding numbers listed represent project funds distributed in 2015, and not funding totals for the life of the project. These

featured projects represent only a fraction of the overall Southeast CSC budget for Fiscal Year 2015. Additional funds are

distributed each year to support ongoing projects, educational programs, partnership building, and other initiatives.

The Southeast CSC is hosted by

North Carolina State University

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

Credit: Alex Demas, USGS

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NCCWSC funded projects build on Climate Science Center initiatives to help develop a large-scale, often multi-regional or national, understanding of the impacts of climate change.

USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Assessing the Impacts of Drought on Migratory Waterbirds in the Western U.S. Funding Recipients: Oregon State University; USGS Western Ecological Research Center Many migratory birds in the western United States rely on freshwater wetlands, particularly in California‟s Central Valley and the Southern Oregon-Northeastern California region of the Great Basin. However, drought in these areas may have a significant impact on these birds. This project will look at the links between climate change (i.e. drought), the availability of wetland habitat, foraging conditions for waterbirds, and the performance of waterbird populations. The team will examine several possible scenarios that incorporate how climate change will influence water resources and how policymakers might allocate water resources; and then will use these scenarios to understand the possible outcomes for migratory birds.

River’s End: Stream Drying and Drought in the Western United States Funding Recipients: USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center When and where will streams run out of water as climate changes and the effects of drought magnify across the western United States? This project seeks to address this critical question for water availability in streams. Water availability has huge implications for many species and ecosystems that rely directly on water delivered by streams. The water in these streams is also highly valued by society for agricultural, industrial, and municipal uses. Federal scientists and managers working together on this project will combine existing and new information from thousands of records of stream temperature to learn how, when, and where streams go dry. This information will allow managers to make better decisions about our water resources in the future and to devise better ways for monitoring our water supplies in the face of ever-increasing scarcity.

The Impacts of Drought on Southwestern Cutthroat Trout Funding Recipients: USGS New Mexico Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit Although Rio Grande cutthroat trout are not currently considered at immediate risk of extinction, increasing air temperatures and drought are expected to have significant impacts on the fish. In 2002, for example, drought conditions throughout the southwestern U.S. destroyed 14 Rio Grande cutthroat trout populations. Nearly ten years later (2011-2012), the southwest experienced the worst drought on record with „exceptional‟ drought conditions lasting over 350 days. This research will examine the effects of low water flow conditions related to drought on the health and long term persistence of the most southern cutthroat trout. Through this research, the team will also look at management alternatives that might increase the likelihood of populations surviving drought conditions.

California

Oregon

$147,000

Oregon

$146,000

New Mexico

$84,000

Credit: Brian Johnson

Credit: National Park Service

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USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center Continued

Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance and Resilience Funding Recipients: USGS Southwest Biological Science Center Severe droughts can cause widespread tree mortality and decreased growth in forests across the world. Forest managers are seeking strategies to increase forest resistance (minimizing negative impacts during a drought) and resilience (maximizing recovery rates following a drought). The research team will examine eight different forest management techniques (e.g. tree thinning or harvesting) to understand how they increase resistance and resilience. Results from the project will provide forest managers with insight into strategies that can help sustain forested habitats in a changing climate. This project compliments two projects funded by the Southwest Climate Science Center to understand forest management strategies. Together these projects will contribute to a comprehensive understanding of how to promote drought resilience across the country.

A Look at How Dryland Habitats and Ecosystems in the Western U.S. will Fare in Future Drought Funding Recipients: USGS Southwest Biological Science Center Managers of public lands in the western U.S. face enormous challenges as a result of recent warmer and drier conditions that are expected to worsen with climate change. These conditions can lead to permanent degradation of wildlife habitat and ecological services upon which humans depend. To help managers confront these challenges, researchers will look at vegetation, soil, and climate conditions to determine which types of habitat are vulnerable to drought, what habitat changes might occur, and where these changes will be most pronounced. The team will also consider how management actions, soils, and other landscape factors can accelerate or slow down these changes. This project will occur in close collaboration with managers from several federal agencies and will provide helpful products and tools that managers can utilize to prepare for harmful drought impacts to public lands.

Arizona

Maine

Minnesota

New Hampshire

Ohio

South Dakota

Wisconsin

$74,000

Arizona

California

Colorado

Nevada

New Mexico

Texas

Utah

$26,000

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS

Funding numbers listed represent project funds distributed in 2015, and not funding totals for the life of the project. These featured projects represent only a fraction of the

overall NCCWSC budget for Fiscal Year 2015. Additional funds are distributed each year to support ongoing projects,

educational programs, partnership building, and other initiatives.

The USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) provides national coordination and management for the

Climate Science Centers.

Credit: Alan Cressler, USGS