youth demographics in the city of toronto toronto community and neighbourhood services: social...
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YOUTH DEMOGRAPHICS IN THE CITY OF TORONTO
Toronto Community and Neighbourhood Services: Social Development and Administration Division
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• The Future - born 1997-2001 (aged 0-4): 5.8%• Baby Boom Echo - born 1981-1996 (aged 5-20): 18.7% • Baby Bust - born 1968-1980 (aged 21-33): 20.3% • Baby Boom - born 1948-1967 (aged 34-53): 31.4%• Pre-Seniors - born 1937-1947 (aged 54-64): 10.2% • Seniors - born before 1936 (aged 65+): 13.6%
Toronto’s Population - 2001
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Toronto's Youth Population - 2001
143,280
165,140
196,465
Age 15-19
Age 20-24
Age 25-29
Source: Census 2001
Youth = 504,885 (or 20.3% of the City's Total Pop'n)
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• Youth population will remain stable over next 30 years (averaging about 21% of the population)
• Conversely, seniors will experience significant growth
• Working age population (b/ 15-65) is projected to decline, mostly due to out-migration and aging-out of the labour force
• Projected growth shows that youth (15-29) will increase to nearly 600,000 by 2031
• Suggests skills shortage and need for replacement workers with appropriate skills
Population Projections
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Toronto Youth Population Projections
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2031
Age 15-19 Age 20-24 Age 25-29
Source: Urban Development Services, Policy & Research Div.
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Toronto: Diverse and Multicultural
• Almost 1/2 of Toronto residents are foreign born
• Annually, Toronto receives almost 1/4 of all new arrivals to Canada (60,000 - 80,000 new arrivals each year)
• Toronto has 1/12 of Canada’s population, but has 1/4 of Canada’s immigrants
• International immigration is a major driver of population change in Toronto (these trends are expected to continue)
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• 202,065 are immigrant youths (39.8% of all youth aged 15-29)
• Contrasts with Canada where the proportion of youth that reported immigrant origin, is much lower
• 1 in 5 youth in Toronto speak a language other than English & French at home
Youth: Diverse and Multicultural
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Toronto Immigrants (Age 15-29)by Place of Birth
Source: Census 1996 Special Tabulation
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• 213,630 youth belong to a visible minority (42% of all youth aged 15-29)
• Proportion contrasts with Canada where 14% of youth belong to a visible minority group
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Toronto Youth (Age 15-29) Visible Minority Status
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000
Source: Census 1996 Special Tabulation
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• Replacement of retiring workers: Young workers need to have the skills necessary to replace older workers as many baby-boomers enter retirement years
• Technology Change: Both hard and soft skills needed to keep pace with ever changing economy by continuous learning and on-the-job training
Youth: Learning & Education
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Percent of Youth by Age andHighest Level of School
City of Toronto, October 2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0-8 years ofschool
Somesecondary
High Schooldiploma
Some post-secondary
CommunityCollegediploma
Universitydegree
15-19 year olds 20-24 year olds
Source: Labour Force Survey
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• Youth unemployment rates remain at double-digit levels
• Rates are higher for younger youth
• Rates for youth from minority groups are even higher
Youth: Employment Issues
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Unemployment Rate Toronto 2000-2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
October 2000 October 2001 October 2002
15-19 20-24 25+Source: Labour Force Survey
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• “Under-employment” continues to be an issue, particularly for younger people (only part-time jobs available, holding multiple part-time jobs ...)
• Particularly an issue with immigrant youth
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Toronto Youth, 2002by Employed Status
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
15-19 20-24 25+
Part-time
Full-time
Source: Labour Force Survey
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Toronto Median Income Yr 2000: Families & Non-Family Persons
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Husband-wifefamilies
Lone-parentfamilies
Non-familypersons
Youth-led
All Ages
Source: Tax Files Year 2000
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Mean and Median Weekly SalaryToronto, 2002
$136.03
$353.21
$748.18
$109.60
$320.00
$651.60
0
100
200
300400
500
600
700
800
15-19 20-24 25+
Mean Weekly Salary Median Weekly Salary
Source: Labour Force Survey
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Youth on Social Assistance
• In Toronto there are approximately 11,000 youth on social assistance (representing 26% of all youth cases in Ontario)
• There are an additional 9,000 youth in families that receive social assistance (representing 36% of all youth dependents in Ontario)
• 12% of youth cases are employed - likely part-time
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Homelessness among Youth
• Despite economic growth, homelessness is getting worse
• The fastest growing group of emergency shelter users is now two parent families
• • The number of children using shelters rose by 130% from 2,700
children in 1988 to almost 6,200 in 2000
• An estimated 6,000 youth stay in Toronto’s emergency shelters
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Number of Children in Toronto Emergency Shelters (1988-2000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 * 1999 * 2000 *
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f C
hil
dre
n
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• As of 2001 Census, there will be nearly 338,000 people entering retirement years. Another 252,000 will enter retirement over the next 10 years
• Youth currently represent 20% of the population, or 504,885 persons
• Need to replace these workers. Demographics suggest future skills gap
• Youth are not a homogenous group. Many come from different ethnic backgrounds, households, and income situations
Summary
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• Diversity in Toronto is reflected in the youth population as well. By proving youth with Canadian work experience, there are many opportunities for youth to participate in this diverse market
• Recognition of non-Canadian credentials and work experience
• Need for more effective school to work transition (I.e., Job preparation, work experience, training on the job, and job maintenance)
• Awareness of job opportunities and trends is needed
• Recognition of General Equivalency Diploma (GED)