yucheng song & zoltan toth 1 yucheng song and zoltan toth emc/ncep/nws/noaa update on the winter...

Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

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Yucheng Song and Zoltan Toth

EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program

Meeting of the working group on Space-based Lidar winds, Miami, Florida Feb 6-9


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Acknowledgments

• NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs• NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews• CARCAH (John Pavone)• Sharanya Majumdar Univ. of Miami/CIMAS• Jack Woollen - EMC• Russ Treadon - EMC• Mark Iredell - EMC• Istvan Szunyogh – Univ. of Maryland• Wayman Baker, JCSDA• + others who have contributed!


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Collaborators

• Sharanya Majumdar Univ. of Miami/CIMAS• Craig Bishop Naval Research Lab• Christopher Velden Univ. of Wisc./CIMSS• Milija Zupanski Colo. State Univ./CIRA• Thomas Hamill NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Lab• Istvan Szunyogh Univ. of Maryland• Robert Atlas NASA/GSFC• David Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, SMA


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Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR 2006) Program

• Took place 27 Jan – 9 March 2006

• Dropwinsonde observations taken over the NE Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force Reserve (C-130s).

• Observations are adaptive –

– collected only prior to significant winter weather events of interest

– in areas that might influence forecast the most.

• Operational since January 2001

• 26 flights, around 342 dropsondes this winter which is reduced from 500 drops last year

Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program

Objective:

Improve Forecasts of Significant Winter Weather Events Through Targeted Observations in Data Sparse Northeast Pacific Ocean

Approach:

1) Collected Only Prior to Significant Winter Weather Events of Interest

2) Collected in Areas that Influence the Forecast the Most

Results:

About 70% of Targeted Numerical Weather Predictions Improve Significantly Due to Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program (Operational since January 2001)


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ETKF-based targeting strategy

The ETKF spotted the target area


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Overall results for Temperature

Of the cases:22 improved 1 neutral 7 degraded

RMS errors averaged in the verification regions for forecasts with and without WSR data


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Overall results for Vector Wind

Of all cases:19 improved 0 neutral11 degraded



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Overall results for Specific humidity

Of all cases:19 improved 0 neutral11 degraded



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Forecast Verification for Wind

RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time


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Individual Case Comparison

1 denotes positive effect

0 denotes neutral effect

-1 denotes negative effect

19 OVERALL POSITIVE

0 OVERALL NEUTRAL

8 OVERALL NEGATIVE

70% improved 30 % degraded

VR OBSDATE P T V OVERALL REGION FHOUR W 20060127 1 1 1 1 124W ,45N 48 E 20060129 -1 -1 1 -1 75W ,40N 72 E 20060201 1 1 1 1 83W ,36N 72 W 20060203 -1 1 -1 -1 124W ,42N 36 E 20060203 1 1 1 1 84W ,35N 48 E 20060204 -1 -1 1 -1 68W ,45N 48 AK 20060206 -1 1 1 1 140W ,60N 24 W 20060209 -1 -1 -1 -1 122W ,45N 60 AK 20060210 1 1 1 1 131W ,55N 60 AK 20060212 1 -1 1 1 140W ,60N 12 E 20060214 -1 -1 -1 -1 88W ,42N 84 E 20060221 -1 1 1 1 87W ,42N 48 C 20060221 1 -1 1 1 95W ,33N 48 W 20060223 1 1 -1 1 120W ,47N 24 W 20060225 -1 -1 1 -1 122W ,40N 72 W 20060226 1 -1 -1 -1 122W ,40N 36 AK 20060226 1 1 1 1 150W ,60N 48 W 20060227 -1 1 1 1 118W ,34N 36 H 20060227 -1 1 1 1 158W ,22N 84 W 20060301 1 -1 1 1 124W ,42N 24 W 20060303 -1 1 1 1 123W ,45N 84 W 20060304 1 1 1 1 123W ,40N 48 W 20060305 -1 1 1 1 121W ,40N 36 W 20060307 1 1 -1 1 122W ,46N 48 C 20060307 1 1 1 1 90W ,37N 60 E 20060307 -1 -1 1 -1 85W ,45N 84 E 20060309 -1 1 1 1 80W ,50N 84


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Impact of WSR targeted dropsondes (2006)

1 Jan – 28 Feb 2006 00UTC Analysis

NOAA-WSRP 191 Profiles

Beneficial (-0.01 to -0.1 J kg-1)

Non-beneficial (0.01 to 0.1 J kg-1)Small impact (-0.01 to 0.01 J kg-1)

Binned Impact

Average dropsonde obs impact is beneficial and ~2-3x greater than average radiosonde impact (From Dr. Rolf Langland, Naval Research Lab.)

Composite summary maps

139.6W 59.8N 36hrs (7 cases) 92W 38.6N 60hrs (5 cases)

122W 37.5N 49.5hrs (8 cases) 80W 38.6N 63.5hrs (8 cases)

Verification Region

Verification Region

Shaded is the ETKF derived error reduction in Verification region and contours are sea level pressure


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3 649.5

60

63.5

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0 20 40 60 80F o r e c a s t H o u r s

D i s t a n c e ( k m )

ETKF predicted signal propagation


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5143km63.5hrs (East Coast)

4064km60hrs (Central U.S)

2034km49.5hrs (West Coast)1422km36 hrs (Alaska)

Forecast hours vs. Distance

The above table listed forecast hours and the distance between the centers of sensitivity and verification regions


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WSR overall statistics (2004-2006)

Variable# cases

improved# cases neutral

#cases degraded

Surface pressure

21+20+13=54 0+1+0=1 14+9+14=37

Temperature 24+22+17=63 1+1+0=2 10+7+10=27

Vector Wind 23+19+21=63 1+0+0=1 11+11+6=28

Humidity 22+19+13=54 0+0+0=0 13+11+14=38

25+22+19 = 66 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES.

0+1+0 = 1 OVERALL NEUTRAL CASES.

10+7+8 = 25 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 71.7% improved 27.1% degraded


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Future Work

• Improve ensemble products to give better guidance to HPC and SDMs– using “energy norms” in addition to the conventional products– Better ensemble products

• Improve targeting method based on ETKF method with increasing resolution and ensemble membership– Explore parallel structure of the codes

• Improve verification techniques• High resolution (T382L64?)• WSR 2007 increased more ensemble members from ECMWF,

NCEP • Moisture data will be assimilated in the verification• Tropical flareups and Arctic signals – T-PARC and IPY

WSR2007 – More ensemble members-Cleaner signals


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Ensemble based guidance


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Tropical Flare-ups by IR


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Tropical Flare-ups captured by ETKF


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NRL P-3 and NRL P-3 and HIAPER with theHIAPER with theDLR Wind LidarDLR Wind Lidar

NRL P-3 and NRL P-3 and HIAPER with theHIAPER with theDLR Wind LidarDLR Wind Lidar

Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY

Winter storm reconnaissanceand driftsonde

T-PARC Experiments and Collaborative Efforts


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Winter component of T-PARC

• December 08 to February 09

• Improving adaptive targeting methods for 3-5 days ET SV (possible collaboration with NRL)

• Adaptive use of DWL, Driftsondes, Radiosondes, special IPY observations as well as satellite data can enhance high impact weather events in Arctic and CONUS, Enhanced Siberian Observation network, MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms


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Goal

• Contribute to the design and utilization of optimal global observing network, including adaptive components

• Contribute to Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

• Improved forecasts translate into enhanced guidance for users and real life applications

• Develop new products (sea ice, freezing spray, storm surge)• Probabilistic approach to model uncertainties,

downscaling/post-processing better representation in model of high impact weather events


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Data issues (AMMA example)

Temperature and Wind Sounding Counts for Site 65578

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Daily take-in of the AMMA data for Temperature and wind at one station

An example showing Track-Check Problems with African AMDAR Data during AMMA period

Courtesy of Dr. Bradley Ballish


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Background information - ETKF

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yucheng song & zoltan toth 1 yucheng song and zoltan toth emc/ncep/nws/noaa update on the winter...

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