zara uses operations research to reengineer its global ... · global warehouses design team...
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Zara Uses Operations Research to Reengineer Its Global Distribution Process
Miguel Díaz, CFO
Javier García
José Manuel Corredoira
José Antonio Ramos
Juan Correaformerly with ZaraJosé Manuel Corredoira
Marcos MontesZara, Inditex Group S.A.
formerly with Zara
Felipe CaroUCLA Anderson School of Management
Jérémie GallienMIT Sloan School of Management
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Customer feedbackand fashion trendsDistributionDistributionDistributionDistribution
Stores
Global Warehouses Design Team
Zara’s Continuous Business Cycle
Production planningand specifications
Productionand delivery Suppliers
Global Warehouses Design Team
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Legacy Distribution Process (2006 and Before)
past sales data
storemanagers
store inventory
assortment decisions
warehousedistribution team
shipments
inventory
in stores,
past sales
warehouse
inventory
requested shipment
quantities for each
article and size
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Problems with Legacy Process
• Store incentives andlocal optimization
• Warehouse resourcesand guidelines
lastweek
store
weeksales
stocklevel
order
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New OR-Based Distribution Process
past sales data
storemanagers
requested shipment
quantities for each
inventory
in stores,
warehouse
inventory
store inventory
requested shipment
quantities for each
inventory
in stores
warehouse
inventory
assortment decisions
demand
forecasts
past sales data
forecastingmodel
assortment decisions
quantities for each
article and size
warehousedistribution team
shipments
in stores,
past sales
inventoryquantities for each
article and size
optimizationmodel
shipments
in stores inventory
Legacy Process New Process
forecasts
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The Optimization Model
For every article:
Max Σstore j Price(j) x Sales(j)
Subject to:
Expected revenue for upcoming week Value of leftover inventory
+ Input_Value x Σsize s Leftover_WH_Inventory(s)
Subject to:
Shipment(j,s) is integer
Σstore j Shipment(j,s) ≤ Existing_WH_Inventory(s)
Sales(j) = Function[ Store_Inventory(j,s) + Shipment(j,s) , Forecast(j,s) ]
Leftover_WH_Inventory(s) = Existing_WH_Inventory(s) - Σstore j Shipment(j,s)Inventory-to-sales function
Inventory availability constraint
Leftover inventory calculation
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Inventory-To-Sales Function
Expected store salesfor article that week
Expected demand(Forecast)
Saturation Effect
Stock of articlein store atbeginning of week
Exposure Effect
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Exposure Effect and Size Display Policy
remainingsizes
action
Article with 4 Sizes(Small, Medium, Large, Extra Large)
S M L XL Keep on display
M L XL Keep on display
S M L Keep on display
M L Keep on display
Entire article is removed to backroom when major size Medium or Largestocks out
M L Keep on display
S M XL Move to backroomS M XL Move to backroom
S L XL Move to backroom
S M Move to backroom
L XL Move to backroom
S L Move to backroom
M XL Move to backroom
S XL Move to backroom
S Move to backroom
M Move to backroom
L Move to backroom
XL Move to backroom
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Stochastic Store Display Model
Sizes
Poisson processarrival rates
obtained fromdemand forecasts
Starting inventory xs of each size s:
x = Store_Inventory(s) + Shipment(s)
Major sizes Regular sizes
InventoryCustomer Arrival Process
SMλSM
MλM
XLλXL
LλL (set A)
•Stochastic stopping times:
–The time when a size stocks out:
–The time when the first major size stocks out:
•Linear approximation of expected sales function:
xs = Store_Inventory(s) + Shipment(s)
= Function[ Store_Inventory(s) + Shipment(s) , Forecast(s) ]
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Mathematical Model FormulationExpected revenue for
upcoming weekValue of leftover
inventory
Max
Subject to:
Approximateinventory-to-sales
function
Inventory availabilityconstraint
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Pilot Test: Objectives
• When: 2006 Fall/Winter season
• Objectives:
1. Prove concept feasibility through actual implementationimplementation
2. Refine software interface and model features based on feedback from field users
3. Estimate the model’s specific impact on inventory distribution
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Pilot Test: Matching Procedure
control article
• 10 test articles that represent Zara’s assortment
• Each test article was matched with a control article
test article
• Matching criteria:
− same type of article
− same life-cycle
− similar prior performance
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Pilot Test: Experiment Design
Zaragoza stores
Arteixo stores
Optimization modelcomputes shipments
test article control article
Shipments determinedwith legacy process
Performancecomparison
test article
Arteixowarehouse
Zaragozawarehouse
computes shipments
control article
Shipments determinedwith legacy process
Performancecomparison
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ControlTest MM ′−′
Pilot Test: Arteixo Warehouse
test article
legacy process for test and control articles
PILOT: new process for test articlelegacy process for control article
Arteixo
ControlTest MM −
Life-cycle End
Life-cycle Start
article
control article
Measuring Point
Pilot Starts
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Pilot Test: Zaragoza Warehouse
test article
legacy process for test and control articles
legacy process for test and control articles
Zaragoza
ControlTest MM ′−′
ControlTest MM −
article
control article
Life-cycle End
Life-cycle Start
Measuring Point
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TestTest MM −′
ControlControl MM −′
1. Remove anything that happened prior to the pilot
2. Eliminate factors that are common to test and control
for test articles
for control articles
Pilot Test: Impact Estimation Methodology
2. Eliminate factors that are common to test and control articles (1st dimension of control)
• Arteixo: impact of the new process
• Zaragoza: measurement of impact estimation error (2nd dimension of control)
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TestTest MM −′
ControlControl MM −′
1. Remove anything that happened prior to the pilot
2. Eliminate factors that are common to test and control
for test articles
for control articles
Pilot Test: Impact Estimation Methodology
)()( ControlControlTestTest MMMM −′−−′
2. Eliminate factors that are common to test and control articles (1st dimension of control)
• Arteixo: impact of the new process
• Zaragoza: measurement of impact estimation error
(2nd dimension of control)
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Pilot Test: Increase in Sales
Sales
Arteixo
Zaragoza
-10,0% -7,5% -5,0% -2,5% 0,0% 2,5% 5,0% 7,5% 10,0%
SalesDifference
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Pilot Test: Increase in Sales
Sales
Arteixo
Zaragoza
-10,0% -7,5% -5,0% -2,5% 0,0% 2,5% 5,0% 7,5% 10,0%
SalesDifference
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Pilot Test: Increase in Sales
Sales
Arteixo
Zaragoza
0.7 % Average Error
-10,0% -7,5% -5,0% -2,5% 0,0% 2,5% 5,0% 7,5% 10,0%
SalesDifference
0.7 % Average Error
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Pilot Test: Increase in Sales
Sales
Arteixo
Zaragoza
0.7 % Average Error
4.1 % Average Increase
-10,0% -7,5% -5,0% -2,5% 0,0% 2,5% 5,0% 7,5% 10,0%
SalesDifference
0.7 % Average Error
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Pilot Test: Increase in Sales
Arteixo
Zaragoza4.1 % Average Increase
= 3 to 4% Increase in Sales–
-10,0% -7,5% -5,0% -2,5% 0,0% 2,5% 5,0% 7,5% 10,0%
SalesDifference
0.7 % Average Error
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Realized Financial Impact
3 to 4% Increase in Sales
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Realized Financial Impact
3 to 4% Increase in Sales
2007
Additional
Net Income
Additional
Revenue$233 M
$28 M
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Realized Financial Impact
3 to 4% Increase in Sales
20082007
$353 M
$42 MAdditional
Net Income
Additional
Revenue$233 M
$28 M
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storesdays
storeperdisplayondays
×
Operational Impact
• Display Cover Ratio
+3.5%
shippedunits
returnedoredtransshippunits
• Transshipments and Returns Ratio
-19%
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Conclusion
• Technical OR achievements:– First application of OR to fast fashion
– Tight MIP formulation of complex stochastic problem
– Distributed IT implementation with many real-time users
– Large controlled field experiment to estimate impact
• Business impact:• Business impact:– Substantial measurable increase in sales by 3-4% � $350M
– Shelf exposure time increased by 3.5%
– Transshipments and returns reduced by 19%
– Scalable process without major capital investment
• Human impact: Positive transformation of sixty employees’ daily lives