zero carbon britain: rethinking the future (centre for alternative technology, 2013)
DESCRIPTION
Using only current technology and acting in line with current climate science, we can reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to net zero whilst maintaining a modern standard of living. We can provide a reliable energy supply for the UK with renewable energy sources and flexible carbon neutral back up. Without fossil fuels, nuclear power, or gambling on the promise of future technology. We can grow the vast majority of the food we need for a healthy, low carbon diet, and manage our land to capture carbon, nurture biodiversity and increase the health and resilience of our ecosystems. We can create 1.5 million jobs, improve our wellbeing, and help ensure the future we leave for our children and generations to come is safe and sustainable. We have everything we need to create a positive future. Download the full report, 'Zero Carbon Britain: Rethinking the Future' for free (www.zerocarbonbritain.org) to find out how, or buy a copy online from the Centre for Alternative Technology Eco Store (www.cat.org.uk).TRANSCRIPT
www.zerocarbonbritain.org
• New norms – temperatures increasing, arctic ice shrinking
• New extremes – heatwaves, droughts, floods
• More to come – both expected, and unexpected
Climate change
Where we’re heading today
80% reduction by 2050
At least net zero
ASAP!
A technically robust scenario in which the UK has risen to this challenge.
Today: UK GHGs ~ 650MtCO2e
ZCB: net zero GHG emissions
UK emissions can be reduced to net zero.
Without nuclear power or gambling on future technology.
Technically, we could do it now!
Without major impacts on quality of life.
(In fact, we think this future is better!)
ZCB shows that
We have to see the future like this
No continuous ‘business as
usual’ future is available!
• Potential for job creation ~1.5 million jobs.
• Help us adapt and increase our resilience to climate changes.
• Better outlook for biodiversity (and other environmental problems).
• Improve our health and wellbeing.
Benefits beyond carbon
Zero Carbon Britain
How do we get from this…
… to this?
1. Can we ‘keep the lights on’ with carbon neutral and renewable energy systems?
2. Can we provide a healthy balanced diet for the UK that is lower in GHG emissions and has positive impact on land use?
Two big questions:
Energy in ZCB
UK GHG emissions today
The majority (though not all) of our emissions come from energy
From:
From:
Today
Supply Demand
Question 1:
Can we ‘keep the lights on’?
The ZCB hourly energy model:
Based on ten years of real-world hourly data
2002 - 201187,648 hours
ZCB electricity supply
ZCB electricity demand
Land use in ZCB
UK GHG emissions today
UK GHG emissions so far…
UK GHG emissions so far…
Agricultural GHG emissions today
~ 10% of UK
emissions
Land use today
• 65-70% = food production/agriculture • Despite 42% imports. • 85% of agricultural land = livestock.
Current average UK diet 64% of adults overweight/obese
(Bates et al, 2011).
71% of deaths in 2010 from diet- related disease (WHO, 2013).
• Too much food.
• An unhealthy balance.
• Too much HFSS and high protein foods.
• Too little fruit, vegetables and cereals.
• Waste (30% in Europe (FAO, 2011)).
Question 2:
Can we provide a healthy and balanced diet that reduces greenhouse gas emissions?
The ZCB food and diets model
For over 60 different foods:
• Emissions
• Land use
• Nutrition
The ZCB food and diets model
• Healthy, balanced diet.
• Low GHG emissions.
• Using only land we already use for food.
ZCB scenario
• Nitrogen inhibitors.
• -50% waste.
• Eat only what we need.
• Product switch.
ZCB scenario
• Nitrogen inhibitors.
• -50% waste.
• Eat only what we need.
• Product switch.
ZCB scenario
• Nitrogen inhibitors.
• -50% waste.
• Eat only what we need.
• Product switch.
• 5-6 portions meat/dairy/eggs.
• 4 portions ‘alternatives’.
• + Milk for tea/coffee.
• About a quarter of today’s grazing grassland is needed.
• All cropland still used, but allocated differently.
• Imports decreased from 42% to 17%.
ZCB scenarioAgricultural GHG emissions -73%.
Growing energy and fuel
Capturing carbonSafe, proven, lasting methods:
• Restore 50% of peatlands.
• Double forest area.
• Increased use of UK wood products.
Zero Carbon Britain
UK GHG emissions today
Net zero GHG emissions
UK emissions can be reduced to net zero.
We can provide a reliable energy supply to ‘keep the lights on.’
• 100% renewable/carbon-neutral.
• No nuclear.
• No gambling on future technology.
ZCB shows that
UK emissions can be reduced to net zero.
We can provide a healthy, balanced diet that is low in GHG emissions.
• Better than today’s diet.• Has positive impact on land in the UK and
abroad.
ZCB shows that
• Potential for job creation ~1.5 million jobs.
• Help us adapt and increase our resilience to climate changes.
• Better outlook for biodiversity.
• Improve our health and wellbeing.
A positive future.
Benefits beyond carbon
www.cat.org.uk | @centre_alt_tech www.zerocarbonbritain.org | #ZCB
We have the technology to power ourselves with 100% renewable energy, to feed ourselves
sustainably and to leave a safe and habitable climate for our children and future generations.