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Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah League of Cities and Towns • June 18, 2018

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Page 1: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

ZionsBankEconomicOverview

UtahLeagueofCitiesandTowns

• June18,2018

Page 2: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

UtahEconomic Conditions

Page 3: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

PercentChange:2016to2017U.S.Rate=0.7%

Loss

0.2%to0.6%

1.5%+

0.0%to0.1%

NM0.1%

UT1.9%

AZ1.6%

CA0.6%

NV2.0%

OR1.4%

TX1.4%

OK0.2%

CO1.4%

WA1.7%

ID2.2%

MT1.1%

WY-1.0%

ND0.0%

SD0.9%

MN0.9%

NE0.7%

KS0.3%

IA0.5%

MO0.4%

AR0.5%

LA0.0%

WI0.4%

IL-0.3%

IN0.5%

OH0.3%

FL1.6%

TN1.0%

KY0.4%

MS0.0%

AL0.3%

GA1.1%

SC1.3%

NC1.1%

VA0.7%

WV-0.7%

PA0.1%

NY0.1%

ME0.4%

AK-0.2%

HI-0.1%

MA0.5%

VT0.0%

NH0.6%

RI0.2%

CT0.0%

NJ0.4%

DE1.0%

MD0.5%

MI0.3%

DC1.4%

KS0.2%

UtahPopulation3rd Fastest GrowinginU.S.

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

0.7%to1.4%

Page 4: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

PercentChange:2016to2017U.S.Rate=0.7%

Loss

0.2%to0.6%

1.5%+

0.0%to0.1%

UtahCounties’GrowthOutpacingNation

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

0.7%to1.4%

Page 5: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

-20,000-10,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

0300,000600,000900,000

1,200,0001,500,0001,800,0002,100,0002,400,0002,700,0003,000,0003,300,0003,600,000

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation

34,886

3,101,833

22,587

2017

Sources:U.S.CensusBureau

TotalPop

ulation

ComponentsofPopulationChange

e=estimate,f=forecast

UtahPopulationandComponentsofChange

Page 6: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

UtahPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty

2016to2017StateAverage=1.9%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

Page 7: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

GreaterWasatchPopulation

GrowthRatesByCity

2015to2016StateAverage=1.8%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

Page 8: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

SaltLakeCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

Page 9: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

UtahCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

Page 10: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

DavisCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

Page 11: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

WeberCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

Page 12: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

WashingtonCountyAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

Page 13: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

CacheCountyAverageGrowthRates

2010to2017

StateAverage=1.7%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

1.0%to1.7%

0.0%to0.9%

1.8%to2.9%

Loss

3.0%+

Page 14: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:May2017toMay2018U.S.Rate=1.7%UTRate=3.4%

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

1.0%to1.5%

0.0%to0.9%

Loss

1.6%to1.9%

2.0%+

UtahhastheFastestEmploymentGrowth

MA1.6%

NH1.9%

HI1.7%

Page 15: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,6001996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Thou

sand

sofEmployees

TotalNonfarmEmploymentSource:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Numbersroundedtonearestthousand

UtahTotalEmploymentatNewHighsGainof339,700jobsfromlowin

2010

Lossof92,000jobsfrom2007-2010

Page 16: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

1.6% 0.5%

4.0% 3.6% 4.4%

3.1% 0.3%

4.5% 2.9%

7.6% -3.5%

-13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12%

GovernmentOtherServices

Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity

InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities

ManufacturingConstruction

Ntl.Res.&Mining

PercentChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2017toMay2018

Total:3.5%

UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowth

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

Page 17: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

4,000

2005,700

7,0009,100

2,600100

12,4003,700

7,400-300

-3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,00013,00015,000

GovernmentOtherServices

Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity

InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities

ManufacturingConstruction

Ntl.Res.&Mining

Total:51,900

UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowthTotalChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2017toMay2018

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

Page 18: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

ChangesandDifferencesBetweenUSandUtahEconomies

Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstituteAnalysisofBEANationalandProductAccountData

Page 19: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

ChangesinUtah’sTaxbase

Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstituteanalysisofUtahofficeofLegislativeResearchandGeneralcounseldata

Page 20: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

UtahEmploymentChangeRatesByCountyMay2017toMay2018StateRate=3.4%

1.0%to3.2%

0.0%to0.9%

5.0%+

3.3%to4.9%

Loss

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

Page 21: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

VT3.4%

NH4.4%

MA3.8%

RI3.5%CT

3.9%NJ2.7%

MD2.6%

DC5.7%

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

UtahHasthe11th LowestUnemploymentRateMay2018U.S.Rate=3.8%;UT=3.0%

6.0%+

5.5%to5.9%

4.8%to5.4%

4.0%to4.7%

3.9%orless

Page 22: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

UtahUnemployment

RatesByCounty

April2018

StateRate=3.1%

Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices

4.0%to5.9%

6.0%to6.9%

3.1%orlower

3.2%to3.9%

7.0%+

Page 23: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

DE2.5%

VT3.4%

NH4.4%

MA3.8%

RI3.5%CT

3.9%NJ2.7%

MD2.6%

DC5.7%

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

UtahPersonalIncomeGrowth3rd HighestintheNationPercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2016- 2017

U.S.=3.1%,UT=4.4%ID= 4.7%

3.6%to3.9%2.0%to3.5%

4.0%ormore

0.0%to1.9%Decrease

Page 24: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

2016U.S.Rate=14.0%,UtahRate=10.1%

Source:U.S.CensusBureau,AnnualCommunitySurvey1-yearestimate

NM19.8%

UT10.1%

AZ16.3%

CA14.3%

NV13.8%

OR13.3%

TX15.6%

OK16.3%

CO11.0%

WA11.3%

ID14.4%

MT13.3%

WY11.3%

ND10.6%

SD13.3%

MN9.9%

NE11.4%

KS12.1%

IA11.8%

MO14.0%

AR17.1%

LA20.1%

WI11.8%

IL13.0%

IN14.1%

OH14.6%

FL14.6%

TN 15.8%

KY18.5%

MS20.8%

AL17.1%

GA16.0%

SC15.3%

NC 15.4%

VA11.0%

WV17.8%

PA12.9%

NY14.6%

ME12.5%

AK9.9%

HI9.3%

MA10.4%

VT11.9%

NH7.2%

RI12.8%

CT9.8%

NJ10.4%

DE11.6%

MD9.6%

MI15.0%

DC18.6%

15.1% to 18.0%12.1% to 15.0%

10.0% or less

10.1% to 12.0%

18.1% +

UtahPovertyRate7th LowestintheNation

Page 25: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

StrongConsumerSentiment

5060708090100110120130140

Jul-12

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

U.S.ConsumerConfidenceIndex:128.0

ZionsBankUtahConsumerAttitudeIndex:110.7

Above110indicateseconomicprosperity

Sources:ConferenceBoardandCiceroGroup

Page 26: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

UtahInflationHitsHighest-LevelRecorded

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jul-2

011

Oct-2011

Jan-2012

Apr-2

012

Jul-2

012

Oct-2012

Jan-2013

Apr-2

013

Jul-2

013

Oct-2013

Jan-2014

Apr-2

014

Jul-2

014

Oct-2014

Jan-2015

Ap

r-2015

Jul-2

015

Oct-2015

Jan-2016

Ap

r-2016

Jul-2

016

Oct-2016

Jan-2017

Ap

r-2017

Jul-2

017

Oct-2017

Jan-2018

Apr-2

018

UnitedStatesCPI:+2.8% ZionsBankWasatchFrontCPI:+5.0%

Source:U.S.CPIfromNationalBureauofLaborStatisticsandWasatchFrontCPIfromCiceroGroup

Utah5.0%

US2.8%

Year-over-y

earp

ercent

change

Page 27: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

Utahhomevaluescontinuetorise

$95,000$115,000$135,000$155,000$175,000$195,000$215,000$235,000$255,000$275,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

UnitedStates Utah

UtahDec.2017$262,200

U.S.Dec.2017$206,300

Source:ZillowResearch

Page 28: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

HouseholdCreationSurpassesHousingUnits

Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstitutePopulationProjectionsandIvoryBoyerConstructionDatabase

Page 29: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

HomePricesIncreasingFasterThanWages

Source:WallStreetJournal

Page 30: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

MultigenerationalHouseholdsontheRise

Source:WallStreetJournal

Page 31: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

Sources:StateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup,Moody’sEconomy.com,IHSGlobalInsights e=estimatef=forecast

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

RetailSales

HomePrices

PersonalIncome

UnemploymentRate

NonfarmEmployment

Population

2016 2017e 2018f 2019f

UtahEconomicIndicators2016-2019f

Page 32: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer

RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer

Email:[email protected]:801-560-5394

ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.

Contentisofferedforinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconstruedastax,legal,financialorbusinessadvice.Pleasecontactaprofessionalaboutyourspecificneedsandadvice.Contentmaycontaintrademarksortradenamesownedbypartieswhoarenot affiliated

withZB,N.A.Useofsuchmarksdoesnotimplyanysponsorshipbyoraffiliationwiththirdparties,andZB,N.A.doesnotclaim anyownershipoformakerepresentationsaboutproductsandservicesofferedunderorassociatedwithsuchmarks.


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