zocalo developing open source prediction market software chris hibbert commercenet labs dimacs...
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ZocaloZocalo
Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software
Chris HibbertCommerceNet Labs
DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices4 February 2005
Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software
Chris HibbertCommerceNet Labs
DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices4 February 2005
22© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Zocalo: ChallengesZocalo: Challenges
•My Objective:•Promote broader use of Prediction
Markets
•Our Opportunity:•CommerceNet is starting an e-
commerce lab.
•One Key Obstacle: •No common software platform for
prediction markets yet.
•My Objective:•Promote broader use of Prediction
Markets
•Our Opportunity:•CommerceNet is starting an e-
commerce lab.
•One Key Obstacle: •No common software platform for
prediction markets yet.
33© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Zocalo: A ProposalZocalo: A Proposal
•Our Proposed Solution:•Catalyze development of an Open
Source toolkit for Experimental (& Real) markets.
•Call to Action:• Identify promising “wheels to stop re-
inventing.”
•Collaborate with us on your next experiment.
•Help us make the case to CommerceNet.
•Our Proposed Solution:•Catalyze development of an Open
Source toolkit for Experimental (& Real) markets.
•Call to Action:• Identify promising “wheels to stop re-
inventing.”
•Collaborate with us on your next experiment.
•Help us make the case to CommerceNet.
44© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
OutlineOutline
•My Background and Incentives•Why me?
•The Target Markets for Zocalo•Who should care?
•Why aren’t PM Toolkits Available Already?
•Benefits of Open Source•Design for Flexibility•Benefits of Working with CommerceNet
•My Background and Incentives•Why me?
•The Target Markets for Zocalo•Who should care?
•Why aren’t PM Toolkits Available Already?
•Benefits of Open Source•Design for Flexibility•Benefits of Working with CommerceNet
55© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
My BackgroundMy Background
• MIT, Xerox PARC• Managed S/W Development for 12 Years
• Teams of 3 to 15 people• E-Commerce projects at Agorics, Inc.• Project Manager, Architect for GuardPoste
Secure EMail Server, recently sold to Microsoft
• Extensive Experience with Electronic Commerce• Internal E-Commerce at Sun Labs.• Electronic Check (IBM, Sun, Top-10 banks)
• Strong background in Economics• Have deployed and written Idea Futures S/W
• MIT, Xerox PARC• Managed S/W Development for 12 Years
• Teams of 3 to 15 people• E-Commerce projects at Agorics, Inc.• Project Manager, Architect for GuardPoste
Secure EMail Server, recently sold to Microsoft
• Extensive Experience with Electronic Commerce• Internal E-Commerce at Sun Labs.• Electronic Check (IBM, Sun, Top-10 banks)
• Strong background in Economics• Have deployed and written Idea Futures S/W
66© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Target AudiencesTarget Audiences
.eduEcon Departments
Show how markets work
.comBusiness
Planning, Trading
CommerceNet.org
SimonMarket.orgPolicy Discussion
77© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Why Aren’t Prediction Market Toolkits
Available?
Why Aren’t Prediction Market Toolkits
Available?•Researchers focus on running experiments:•Little reward for publishing software.•Toolkits emerge once experiments are
systematized
•Corporate users develop proprietary solutions:•Consulting, not general-purpose
infrastructure.
•CommerceNet’s motivation is different:• Its research focus is software engineering.•Has track record of sharing software that
creates new markets for electronic commerce.
•Researchers focus on running experiments:•Little reward for publishing software.•Toolkits emerge once experiments are
systematized
•Corporate users develop proprietary solutions:•Consulting, not general-purpose
infrastructure.
•CommerceNet’s motivation is different:• Its research focus is software engineering.•Has track record of sharing software that
creates new markets for electronic commerce.
88© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Benefits of Open SourceBenefits of Open Source
•Open Source Packages Best Practices and Makes it Accessible
•Later Users can Add Value to the Foundation
•Every Econ or Business Student Should Learn How to Put Together a Market
•Entrepreneurs Will Invent New Uses and Apply Markets in More Ways
•Some Will be Contributed Back to the OS project
•Open Source Packages Best Practices and Makes it Accessible
•Later Users can Add Value to the Foundation
•Every Econ or Business Student Should Learn How to Put Together a Market
•Entrepreneurs Will Invent New Uses and Apply Markets in More Ways
•Some Will be Contributed Back to the OS project
99© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
The Zocalo Toolkit Design
The Zocalo Toolkit Design
• Develop a Variety of Exchange Tools• Support CDA and Call Markets• Trade Predictions or Virtual Commodities• Handle Play Money or Valuable Goods
• Support for Experiments• Instrument all Activity• Export Data in Useful Formats for Analysis
• Apply Current S/W Development Approaches• Flexible Support for UIs• Scalability, Decentralization, Security
• Develop a Variety of Exchange Tools• Support CDA and Call Markets• Trade Predictions or Virtual Commodities• Handle Play Money or Valuable Goods
• Support for Experiments• Instrument all Activity• Export Data in Useful Formats for Analysis
• Apply Current S/W Development Approaches• Flexible Support for UIs• Scalability, Decentralization, Security
1010© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Who is CommerceNet?Who is CommerceNet?
• 10-Year Old Non-Profit with Money• Mission is Promoting New Forms of E-
Commerce• Neutral Party that Convenes Interest Groups
to Create Common Tools• e.g. E-Commerce, XML, Audience
Measurement
• Fosters Entrepreneurs• Creating a New Software Research Lab
• Focus on Decentralization and E-Commerce• zClassifieds, zMart, would use Zocalo
• 10-Year Old Non-Profit with Money• Mission is Promoting New Forms of E-
Commerce• Neutral Party that Convenes Interest Groups
to Create Common Tools• e.g. E-Commerce, XML, Audience
Measurement
• Fosters Entrepreneurs• Creating a New Software Research Lab
• Focus on Decentralization and E-Commerce• zClassifieds, zMart, would use Zocalo
1111© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Project PhasesProject Phases
• First Step:• Collect Requirements• Support Experiments; Work with Experimenters• Demonstrate Reuse
• Short Term:• Expand Variety of Market Institutions• Ensure Easy Configurability
• Medium Term:• Deploy Internal Pilots to Businesses• Develop support for Confederations of Markets
• Long Term:• Deploy Public Markets with Partners
• First Step:• Collect Requirements• Support Experiments; Work with Experimenters• Demonstrate Reuse
• Short Term:• Expand Variety of Market Institutions• Ensure Easy Configurability
• Medium Term:• Deploy Internal Pilots to Businesses• Develop support for Confederations of Markets
• Long Term:• Deploy Public Markets with Partners
1212© 2005 Chris Hibbert© 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Collaboration Possibilities
Collaboration Possibilities
• Collaboration is one of CommerceNet’s Strengths• We are Looking for Partners
• (S/W Developers, Experimenters, Entrepreneurs)
• Express Your Interest• Describe Your Needs• Tell us When You want to Deploy a Market
• White Paper available in [email protected]
• http://zLab.Commerce.Net• http://blog.Commerce.Net
• Collaboration is one of CommerceNet’s Strengths• We are Looking for Partners
• (S/W Developers, Experimenters, Entrepreneurs)
• Express Your Interest• Describe Your Needs• Tell us When You want to Deploy a Market
• White Paper available in [email protected]
• http://zLab.Commerce.Net• http://blog.Commerce.Net