zto express (cayman) inc. overweight - seeking alpha · 2017-08-11 · j.p. morgan does and seeks...

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research18 May 2017

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.OverweightZTO, ZTO US

Strong execution drove market share gains as industry pressures resulted in new opportunities

Price: $14.05

Price Target: $18.00

China

Internet

Alex Yao AC

(852) 2800-8535

[email protected]

Bloomberg JPMA YAO <GO>

Calvin C Wong, CFA AC

(852) 2800 8502

[email protected]

Bloomberg JPMA CWONG <GO>

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited

YTD 1m 3m 12mAbs 16.4% 7.9% 0.3% -27.9%Rel 11.1% 7.6% 0.1% -43.0%

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (Reuters: ZTO, Bloomberg: ZTO US)

Rmb in mn, year-end Dec FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19ERevenue (Rmb mn) 6,086 9,789 13,002 16,762 20,945Net Profit (Rmb mn) 1,332 2,054 2,939 3,952 5,218Recurring Profit (Rmb mn) 1,224 2,165 3,061 4,136 5,427EPS (Rmb) 2.17 3.00 4.02 5.40 7.13Recurring EPS (Rmb) 2.04 3.38 4.18 5.65 7.42DPS (Rmb) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Revenue growth (%) 55.9% 60.8% 32.8% 28.9% 25.0%Recurring Profit growth 201.3% 76.8% 41.4% 35.1% 31.2%EPS growth (%) 219.8% 37.9% 34.0% 34.5% 32.0%Recurring EPS growth 200.5% 65.5% 23.8% 35.1% 31.2%ROCE 26.4% 16.6% 14.3% 16.6% 18.3%ROE 26.5% 16.9% 14.4% 16.6% 18.3%P/E (x) 44.5 32.2 24.1 17.9 13.6P/BV (x) 9.9 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.2EV/EBITDA (x) 38.9 18.6 12.8 9.2 6.5Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Company DataShares O/S (mn) 732Market Cap (Rmb mn) 70,713Market Cap ($ mn) 10,280Price ($) 14.05Date Of Price 17 May 17Free Float(%) -3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 2.723M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 35.563M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 35.6S&P500 2357.03Exchange Rate 1.00Price Target End Date 31-Dec-17

See page 8 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

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May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17

Price Performance

ZTO share price ($)

S&P500 (rebased)

ZTO continued to outperform peers on strong execution with visible market share gains achieved in 1Q17, while margins should see sequential improvement from 2Q17 as we move away from the historically low-volume season. Worth further noting is that despite reports of delivery chain disruptions for other industry players in 1Q17, ZTO asserted that their network has remained stable with market share gains actually accelerating at the beginning of 2017. We expect ZTO's outperformance to continue with current profit growth forecasts of 41%/35% Y/Y for FY17/18E on volume growth of 38%/32% Y/Y respectively. Maintain OW 1Q results in line with GPM softness affected by one-off factors. ZTO

reported 1Q non-GAAP net income of Rmb504MM, in line with JPMe, driven by +42% Y/Y volume growth to 1.2B parcels, outpacing the industry (industry volumes +32% Y/Y). Headline revenue/parcel declined 6% Y/Y while GPM fell 2.8ppts Y/Y in 1Q17, but mgmt largely attributed this to an adjustment in pricing from Apr’16, hence a high base in 1Q. In fact, mgmt explained that margins have already stabilized Y/Y so far in 2Q with base now normalized.

Full-year outlook intact; margin expansion expected to accelerate in 4Q. ZTO achieved 1Q17 market share of 15.5% (+1.1ppts Y/Y) as it took advantage of the network instability for certain key competitors to raise volumes without needing to cut pricing aggressively. Looking ahead, we continue to see scope for sustained outperformance (amidst decelerating industry growth and recent announcement of last-mile delivery fee hikes) with potential for strong margin expansion in 4Q as positive impact from ongoing cost optimization initiatives should become more visible when peak season volumes roll through, which we believe will be able to more than offset the operating cost pressures arising from higher fuel and transportation costs. Mgmt highlighted that it plans to raise the pace of automation line installation ahead of this year's peak season with number of lines installed rising from 18 at end-1Q17 to c50 lines by year-end.

PT unchanged at US$18. FY17/18E profit estimates tweaked by -1%/+1% to factor in latest results/guidance. PT unchanged at US$18 (based on FY17-19E EPS CAGR of 33% and PEG of 0.9x), implying FY17/18E P/E of 30x/22x.

Completed 18 May 2017 07:37 PM HKTDisseminated 18 May 2017 07:39 PM HKT

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of ZIYUAN LI at JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY

https://jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-2339392-0

https://jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-2339392-0

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Alex Yao(852) [email protected]

Key catalyst for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view:

• Continued delivery of market share gains• Steady delivery of margin improvement

• Faster than expected market share gains• Lower than expected decline in ASP• Greater than expected reduction in per parcel costs• Faster than expected ecommerce market growth• Sooner than expected industry consolidation

• Slower than expected market share gains• Greater than expected ASP pressure from industry competition• Less than expected benefits from cost saving initiatives• Slower than expected industry growth• discontinued cooperation from key network partners

Key financial metrics FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E Valuation and price target basis

Revenues (LC) 6,086 9,789 13,002 16,762 We derive our Dec-17 PT of US$18.0 based on a PEG multiple of 0.9x on FY17-19E EPS CAGR of 33%. Our PT corresponds to a P/E of 30x, EV/EBITDA of 17.6x and a P/B of 4x for FY17E.

Revenue growth (%) 56% 61% 33% 29%

Operating profit (adjusted) 1,661 2,910 4,091 5,481 Operating profit (adjusted) growth 173% 75% 41% 34%

EBITDA (LC) 1,687 3,094 4,453 6,033 Net profit (LC) 1,303 1,920 2,939 3,952

Net profit (Non-GAAP) 1,224 2,165 3,061 4,136

EPS (LC) 2.04 3.38 4.18 5.65 FY16-19E Revenue and OP forecasts

Core profit growth (%) 221% 47% 53% 35%BVPS (LC) 9.77 30.83 31.17 36.82

Operating cash flow (LC mn) 1,868 2,537 4,204 5,043 Free cash flow (LC mn) 199 (492) (377) 1,953 Interest cover (X) 107.9 215.4 186.6 264.8

Net margin (%) 20.1% 22.1% 23.5% 24.7%Sales/assets (X) 0.78 0.58 0.51 0.56

Debt/equity (%) 5% 2% 2% 1%Net debt/equity (%) -37% -55% -46% -47%

ROE (%) 26.5% 16.9% 14.4% 16.6%

Key model assumptions FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E

Annual parcel volume growth 62% 53% 38% 32%Market share assumption 14% 14% 15% 16%

Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Company and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Sensitivity analysis EBITDA EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates

Sensitivity to FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E NPAT (US$MM) FY17E FY18E

5% change in parcel volume growth ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% JPMe old 3,082 4,095

3% change in ASP ±9% ±8% ±8% ±7% JPMe new 3,061 4,136

% chg -1% 1%

Consensus 3,159 4,194

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Comparative metrics

CMP Mkt Cap P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) YTD

LC $Mn FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Stock perf.

ZTO 14.05 10,276 23.1 17.1 13.1 9.7 3.1 2.6 -27.9

Alibaba 120.72 301,230 35.9 27.5 39.0 24.6 7.8 6.3 37.5Vipshop 13.82 8,155 16.1 13.4 14.3 11.6 6.1 4.2 25.5YTO Express* 20.64 8,450 32.7 27.3 20.6 15.7 4.6 4.0 -19.0

UPS 102.87 89,267 17.3 16.0 9.7 9.1 82.2 25.8 -10.3FedEx 187.49 50,130 15.8 13.8 7.3 6.7 3.1 2.7 0.7

Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of 5/18/2016.

9,789 13,002 16,762 20,945

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Continued solid market share gains in a challenging market environment

In light of some of ZTO’s key competitors facing service disruptions in early-1Q17, the company was able to take advantage of this opportunity to expand its market share in 1Q. ZTO’s parcel volume grew by 42% YoY to 1.18B, outpacing industry growth by 10%. This resulted in the company’s market share seeing solid expansion of 1.1ppts YoY in 1Q to 15.5%. ZTO launched a new program this month to encourage its network partners to further expand the market share with higher rebateincentive. Although pace of industry volume growth is somewhat weaker thanexpectation YTD, we remain positive on ZTO’s volume growth outlook, expecting the company to be able to continue leveraging on its advantages in cost efficiency and service quality to further gain market share.

Figure 1: ZTO's market share trend

Source: State Post Bureau, Company data.

Figure 2: ZTO's parcel volume growth vs industry growth

Source: State Post Bureau, Company data.

Expecting mild margin expansion on automation

On the margin side, we’re generally cautious on the line-haul transportation cost this year (JPMe transportation cost of revenue to be 39% this year vs 38% in 2016). It’s primarily due to hiked fuel price and sustained high outsourced transportation cost on a tight demand-supply balance. Sorting hub cost however should see some upside given the adoption of automated sorting lines (18 lines installed so far, target to reach 50 lines by the year end). We believe the cost benefits from the automation will be largely reflected in peak season, when the labor cost is typically heavy. We expect a mild 1.4ppt non-GAAP net margin expansion this year to 23.5%.

Results review

1Q topline came in at RMB2.6B (+33% YoY), beating JPMe by 3% and exceeding the high-end of guidance. Gross margin was 27.9% (-2.8 ppt YoY), shy of JPMe by 2.7ppt. The YoY decrease is mainly due to 1) high 1Q16 base related resulting from the downward adjustment in transit fees since 2Q16 and 2) increase in line-haul transportation cost (mainly higher fuel costs and outsourced transportation costs). Non-GAAP OPM was 25.1%, slightly below JPMe of 25.4%. Non-GAAP EPS of RMB0.69 was in line with our estimate.

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ZTO's market share

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ZTO's parcel volume growth Industry volume growth


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2Q topline guidance of RMB 2.95B to RMB 3.05B (+29% YoY to 33% YoY) is in line with JPMe.

Figure 3: Results review

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

ZTO's parcel volume growth continued to outpace that of the overall industry in 1Q17 (42% vs 32%), rising to 1.18B. Revenue per parcel declined by 6% YoY due to pricing adjustments (applied from Apr'16), changing volume mix, and market competition. COGS per parcel saw a mild 2% YoY decrease thanks to operating leverage gains resulting in improved cost efficiency. Net profit per parcel decreased 3% YoY to RMB 0.43.

Table 1: Volume and per parcel economics

RMB 1Q16 1Q17 YoY %

Volume (B) 0.83 1.18 42%Revenue 2.37 2.23 -6%COGS 1.64 1.60 -2%SG&A 0.13 0.06 -52%Gross profit 0.73 0.62 -14%Operating profit (non-gaap) 0.60 0.56 -6%Net profit (non-gaap) 0.44 0.43 -3%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

Estimates revision & valuation

We keep our financial forecasts largely unchanged. We forecast ZTO’s topline to grow by 33% YoY in 2017 to RMB13B. We expect a mild net margin expansion of 1.4ppt to 23.5% this year, driven by the improving operating efficiency and economies of scale on fast growing volume. We maintain PT of US$18. Our valuation is based on 2017 non-GAAP EPS of RMB4.18, 2017-2019 EPS CAGR of 33% and a PEG ratio of 0.9x. Our PT implies 2017/18E PE of 30x/22x.

YE 31 Dec 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 1Q17 YoY QoQ Delta

Figures in RMBm except for per share data Actual Actual JPM est. Actual % % %

Net revenues 1,959 3,191 2,536 2,615 33% -18% 3%

Gross profit 601 1,161 777 731 21% -37% -6%

EBIT (GAAP) 454 976 615 657 45% -33% 7%

EBIT (non GAAP) 493 976 645 657 33% -33% 2%

PBT (GAAP) 469 994 647 677 44% -32% 5%

Net income (GAAP) 300 727 485 504 68% -31% 4%

Net income (Non-GAAP) 368 740 515 504 37% -32% -2%

EPADS (GAAP)

Diluted 0.49 1.03 0.66 0.69 40% -33% 4%

EPADS (Non GAAP)

Diluted 0.60 1.05 0.70 0.69 14% -34% -2%

Margin analysis (%)

Gross margin 30.7% 36.4% 30.6% 27.9% -2.8% -8.4% -2.7%

EBIT margin (GAAP) 23.2% 30.6% 24.2% 25.1% 1.9% -5.5% 0.9%

EBIT margin (non-GAAP) 25.2% 30.6% 25.4% 25.1% 0.0% -5.5% -0.3%

Net margin (GAAP) 15.3% 22.8% 19.1% 19.3% 3.9% -3.5% 0.2%

Net margin (non GAAP) 18.8% 23.2% 20.3% 19.3% 0.5% -3.9% -1.0%


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Figure 4: Revision of estimates

Source: Company, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (Overweight; Price Target: $18.00)

Investment Thesis

We regard ZTO as one of the major beneficiaries of China’s booming e-commerce market, with its distinctive China “network partner” model, a market share gain story and industry-leading operating efficiency. We expect the company to continue to benefit from the fast-growing China e-commerce market, with parcel volumes growing at a CAGR of 29% during CY17-19. Driven by the optimization of line-haul transportation operations, increasing automation at sorting hub facilities and operating leverage gains, we expect the non-GAAP operating margin to expand from 29.5% in 2016 to 34.6% in 2020, but note signs of increasing margin pressure since 4Q16. We forecast a non-GAAP EPS CAGR of 33% during CY17-19.

Valuation

We set our Dec-17 PT of US$18 per share using a PEG valuation methodology. Our PT is based on a FY17E EPS of US$0.61, a CY17E-19E CAGR of 33% and a PEG ratio of 0.9x. Our PT implies a target FY17E/18E P/E of 30x/22x and EV/EBITDA of 17.6/13.1x.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Slower-than-expected market share gains

Slower-than-expected e-commerce market growth

Greater-than-expected ASP pressure from industry competition

Lower-than-expected benefits from cost-saving initiatives

YE 31 Dec

Figures in RMBm excpt. EPS JPM old JPM new % change JPM old JPM new % change JPM old JPM new % change

Net Revenue 9,789 13,002 13,002 0% 16,762 16,762 0% 20,945 20,945 0%

Gross profit 3,443 4,576 4,576 0% 6,069 6,069 0% 7,914 7,914 0%

EBIT (GAAP) 2,769 3,776 3,841 2% 5,079 5,159 2% 6,731 6,811 1%

EBIT (non GAAP) 2,891 3,932 3,966 1% 5,263 5,343 2% 6,940 7,020 1%

PBT (GAAP) 2,820 3,907 3,945 1% 5,222 5,276 1% 6,915 6,966 1%

Net income (GAAP) 1,920 2,926 2,936 0% 3,911 3,952 1% 5,180 5,218 1%

Net income (Non-GAAP) 2,165 3,082 3,061 -1% 4,095 4,136 1% 5,389 5,427 1%

EPADS (GAAP)

Diluted 3.00 4.00 4.01 0% 5.35 5.40 1% 7.08 7.13 1%

EPADS (Non GAAP)

Diluted 3.38 4.21 4.18 -1% 5.60 5.65 1% 7.37 7.42 1%

Margin analysis (%)

GP margin 35.2% 35.2% 35.2% 0.0% 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 37.8% 37.8% 0.0%

EBIT margin (GAAP) 28.3% 29.0% 29.5% 0.5% 30.3% 30.8% 0.5% 32.1% 32.5% 0.4%

EBIT margin (non-GAAP) 29.5% 30.2% 30.5% 0.3% 31.4% 31.9% 0.5% 33.1% 33.5% 0.4%

Net margin (GAAP) 19.6% 22.5% 22.6% 0.1% 23.3% 23.6% 0.2% 24.7% 24.9% 0.2%

Net margin (non GAAP) 22.1% 23.7% 23.5% -0.2% 24.4% 24.7% 0.2% 25.7% 25.9% 0.2%

2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E


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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.: Summary of FinancialsIncome Statement Cash flow statement

Rmb in millions, year end Dec FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Rmb in millions, year end Dec FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Revenues 6,086 9,789 13,002 16,762 20,945 EBIT 1,529 2,769 3,841 5,159 6,811

% change Y/Y 55.9% 60.8% 32.8% 28.9% 25.0% Depr. & amortization 158 325 612 874 1,047EBITDA 1,687 3,094 4,453 6,033 7,858 Change in working capital 470 38 527 27 17

% change Y/Y 170.1% 77.8% 45.4% 35.1% 29.7% Taxes (331) (732) (1,005) (1,319) (1,742)

EBIT 1,529 2,769 3,841 5,159 6,811 Cash flow from operations 1,868 2,537 4,204 5,043 6,499% change Y/Y 154.7% 81.1% 38.7% 34.3% 32.0%EBIT Margin 27.3% 29.7% 31.5% 32.7% 34.4% Capex (1,670) (3,005) (4,500) (3,000) (2,000)

Net Interest (1) 32 107 118 155 Disposal/(purchase) - - - - -Earnings before tax 1,752 2,810 3,948 5,276 6,966 Net Interest (1) 32 107 118 155

% change Y/Y 190.6% 60.4% 40.5% 33.6% 32.0% Other 241 (298) 0 0 0Tax (420) (732) (1,005) (1,319) (1,742) Free cash flow 199 (492) (377) 1,953 4,380

as % of EBT 24.0% 26.0% 25.5% 25.0% 25.0%

Net income (reported) 1,332 2,054 2,939 3,952 5,218 Equity raised/(repaid) 1,934 9,206 0 0 0% change Y/Y 227.7% 54.2% 43.1% 34.5% 32.0% Debt raised/(repaid) 50 141 (50) 0 0Recurring Net income 1,224 2,165 3,061 4,136 5,427 Other (115) 68 0 0 0

% change Y/Y 201.3% 76.8% 41.4% 35.1% 31.2% Dividends paid - - - - -Shares outstanding 599 640 732 732 732 Beginning cash 163 2,452 11,288 10,942 12,985EPS (reported) 2.17 3.00 4.02 5.40 7.13 Ending cash 2,452 11,288 10,942 12,985 17,483

% change Y/Y 219.8% 37.9% 34.0% 34.5% 32.0% DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Recurring EPS 2.04 3.38 4.18 5.65 7.42

% change Y/Y 200.5% 65.5% 23.8% 35.1% 31.2%

Balance sheet Ratio Analysis

Rmb in millions, year end Dec FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Rmb in millions, year end Dec FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Cash and cash equivalents 2,452 11,288 10,942 12,985 17,483 EBITDA margin 29.9% 33.0% 36.2% 37.9% 39.4%Accounts receivable 58 198 263 339 423 Operating margin 27.3% 29.7% 31.5% 32.7% 34.4%

Inventories 16 34 45 57 70 Net margin 20.1% 22.1% 23.5% 24.7% 25.9%Others 912 1,666 2,003 2,380 2,780

Current assets 3,438 13,186 13,252 15,760 20,756Sales per share growth 55.5% 50.5% 16.3% 28.9% 25.0%

LT investments 377 537 537 537 537 Sales growth 55.9% 60.8% 32.8% 28.9% 25.0%

Net fixed assets 1,753 4,066 6,993 8,476 9,098 Net profit growth 227.7% 54.2% 43.1% 34.5% 32.0%Total Assets 10,582 23,404 27,358 31,992 37,941 EPS growth 219.8% 37.9% 34.0% 34.5% 32.0%

Liabilities Interest coverage (x) 1,397.9 NM NM NM NMShort-term loans 300 450 400 400 400Payables 294 636 1,501 1,904 2,321 Net debt to equity (36.7%) (54.9%) (46.2%) (46.7%) (52.7%)

Others 2,142 2,567 2,642 2,730 2,828 Sales/assets 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6Total current liabilities 2,736 3,653 4,543 5,034 5,549 Assets/equity 168.6% 132.7% 119.3% 119.3% 117.9%Long-term debt - - - - - ROE 26.5% 16.9% 14.4% 16.6% 18.3%

Other liabilities - - - - - ROCE 26.4% 16.6% 14.3% 16.6% 18.3%Total Liabilities 4,713 3,653 4,543 5,034 5,549

Shareholder's equity 5,869 19,751 22,816 26,958 32,392BVPS (Rmb) 9.77 30.83 31.17 36.82 44.24

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.


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JPM Q-ProfileZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (CHINA / Industrials)As Of: 12-May-2017 [email protected]

Local Share Price Current: 14.07 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 4.86

PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 20.0x P/E Relative to China Index Current: 1.69

Earnings Yield (& Local Bond Yield) Current: 5.00% Dividend Yield (Trailing) Current: 0.00

ROE (Trailing) Current: 14.89 Price/Book (Value) Current: 3.5x

SummaryZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A10109.52 As Of:

CHINA 30.73223 TICKER BYYDFN0 Local Price: 14.07

Industrials Air Freight & Logistics EPS: 4.86

Latest Min Max Median Average 2 S.D.+ 2 S.D. - % to Min % to Max % to Med % to Avg12mth Forward PE 20.00xP/BV (Trailing) 3.54x 3.06 9.53 3.40 4.74 10.14 -0.65 -14% 169% -4% 34%

Dividend Yield (Trailing) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

ROE (Trailing) 14.89 14.89 23.77 23.77 20.81 29.43 12.20 0% 60% 60% 40%

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, JPMorgan Quantitative & Derivative Strategy

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Aug

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Apr

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/14

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/15

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Dec

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P/B Trailing P/B Forward

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

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/02

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/02

Aug

/03

Apr

/04

Dec

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/11

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/12

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/12

Aug

/13

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/14

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/14

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/15

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/16

Dec

/16

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Apr

/02

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/02

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/03

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/04

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/11

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/12

Dec

/12

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Apr

/14

Dec

/14

Aug

/15

Apr

/16

Dec

/16

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Apr

/02

Dec

/02

Aug

/03

Apr

/04

Dec

/04

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/15

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/16


8



Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence orintervention.

Important Disclosures

Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan Securities plc and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

Lead or Co-manager: J.P. Morgan acted as lead or co-manager in a public offering of equity and/or debt securities for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. within the past 12 months.

Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

Client/Investment Banking: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as investment banking clients: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

Investment Banking (past 12 months): J.P. Morgan received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services from ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

Other Significant Financial Interests: J.P. Morgan owns a position of 1 million USD or more in the debt securities of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc..

Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies by visiting https://jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing [email protected] with your request. J.P. Morgan’s Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800-477-0406 or e-mail [email protected].


mailto:[email protected]


https://jpmm.com/research/disclosures

9



Date Rating Share Price ($)

Price Target ($)

23-Nov-16 OW 15.07 19.00

28-Feb-17 OW 12.89 18.00

The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated

Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com.

Coverage Universe: Yao, Alex: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA), Autohome Inc (ATHM), Baidu.com (BIDU), BitAuto Holdings Limited (BITA), Ctrip.com International, Ltd (CTRP), Fang Holdings Ltd (SFUN), JD.com, Inc. (JD), Leju Holdings Limited (LEJU), Momo Inc (MOMO), Phoenix New Media Ltd (FENG), Sina Corp (SINA), Sohu.Com (SOHU), Tencent (0700.HK), Vipshop (VIPS), Weibo Corporation (WB), YY Inc (YY), ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)

Wong, Calvin C: COSCO SHIPPING Ports Ltd (1199.HK), Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT.SI), International Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICT.PS), Kerry Logistics Network (0636.HK)

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of April 03, 2017

Overweight(buy)

Neutral(hold)

Underweight(sell)

J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 43% 46% 11%IB clients* 51% 49% 31%

JPMS Equity Research Coverage 43% 50% 7%IB clients* 66% 63% 47%

*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.

0

7

14

21

28

35

Price($)

Oct16

Oct16

Nov16

Dec16

Jan17

Feb17

Mar17

Apr17

May17

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO, ZTO US) Price Chart

OW $18

OW $19

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.

Initiated coverage Nov 23, 2016.


10



Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered companies, please see the most recent company-specific research report at http://www.jpmorganmarkets.com, contact the primary analyst or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email [email protected].

Equity Analysts' Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues.

Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US affiliates of JPMS, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMS, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

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http://www.jpmorganmarkets.com/

11



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12



"Other Disclosures" last revised April 22, 2017.

Copyright 2017 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P


zto express (cayman) inc. overweight - seeking alpha · 2017-08-11 · j.p. morgan does and seeks...

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