zugang zu globalen rohstoffmÄrkten mit etps family office forum, wiesbaden 2014 bernhard wenger –...

ZUGANG ZU GLOBALENROHSTOFFMÄRKTEN MIT ETPs

FAMILY OFFICE FORUM, WIESBADEN 2014BERNHARD WENGER – HEAD OF GERMANY, AUSTRIA & CEE

INVESTMENTS MAY GO UP OR DOWN IN VALUE AND YOU MAY LOSE SOME OR ALL OF THE AMOUNT INVESTED

INHALT

Das Makro-Umfeld 3

Rohstoffe als Anlageklasse 14

Platin und Palladium 21

Kupfer 27

Kontaktdaten 31

P 2


DAS MAKRO-UMFELD

P 3


DER GLOBALE WIRTSCHAFTSAUFSCHWUNG WEITET SICH AUS

P 4

Weltweites BIP Wachstum, aufgeteilt nach Ländern

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

14%

18%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

European Union Advanced Economies (ex US and EU)Other Developing economies ChinaIndia United StatesWorld GDP Growth (YoY)

Source: IMF (World Economic Outlook - October 2013), ETF Securities

World GDP Growth Breakdown by Country

Quelle: IMF, ETF Securities


25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Non-farm Payrolls (LHS)

US ISM Manufacturing Index (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities

US ISM vs Non-Farm PayrollsMoM Variation (LHS), MoM Values (RHS), From Feb2009 to Feb, 2014

US-WIRTSCHAFT SCHEINT SICH ZU VERBESSERN

P 5

US ISM vs Non-Farm PayrollsUS ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex / Beschäftigte außerhalb der Landwirtschaft

Monatl. Abweichung (linke y-Achse), Monatl. Werte (rechte y-Achse), Feb. 2009-2014

Quelle: Bloomberg, ETF Securities


ANPASSUNG DER ROHSTOFFPREISE AN NIEDRIGERES WACHSTUM IN CHINA…

P 6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

4

8

12

16

Dec

03M

ar 0

4Ju

n 04

Sep

04De

c 04

Mar

05

Jun

05Se

p 05

Dec

05M

ar 0

6Ju

n 06

Sep

06De

c 06

Mar

07

Jun

07Se

p 07

Dec

07M

ar 0

8Ju

n 08

Sep

08De

c 08

Mar

09

Jun

09Se

p 09

Dec

09M

ar 1

0Ju

n 10

Sep

10De

c 10

Mar

11

Jun

11Se

p 11

Dec

11M

ar 1

2Ju

n 12

Sep

12De

c 12

Mar

13

Jun

13Se

p 13

Dec

13

China Growth and Commodity PricesChina GDP Growth and DJUBS Commodity Total Return Index from Dec 2003 to Dec 2013

GDP Growth (YoY %, LHS) DJUBS Commodity TR (Level, RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, ETF SecuritiesSource: Bloomberg, ETF Securities

Wachstum China / Rohstoffpreise

Quelle: Bloomberg, ETF Securities


100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014F

Copper Aluminium Zinc

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, ETF SecuritiesNote: E = expected as of year end; F = forecasted

Market Supply Forecasts for Copper, Aluminium and ZincRebased to 100 = 2009, From 2009 to 2014F

90

100

110

120

130

140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014F

Corn Wheat Soybeans

Market Supply Forecasts for Corn, Wheat and SoybeansRebased to 100 = 2009, From 2009 to 2014F

Source: USDA, ETF SecuritiesNote: E = expected as of year end; F = forecasted

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014F

Oil US Natural Gas

Market Supply Forecasts for Oil and US Natural GasRebased to 100 = 2009, From 2009 to 2014F

Source: EIA, ETF SecuritiesNote: E = expected as of year end; F = forecasted

. . . UND STARKE ERWARTUNGEN AN ROHSTOFFANGEBOT

P 7

Erwartetes Marktangebot für Mais, Weizen und SojabohnenAuf 100 indexiert = 2009, von 2009 bis 2014F

Erwartetes Marktangebot für Kupfer, Aluminium und ZinkAuf 100 indexiert = 2009, von 2009 bis 2014F

Erwartetes Marktangebot für Erdöl und US-ErdgasAuf 100 indexiert = 2009, von 2009 bis 2014F

Quelle: USDA, ETF SecuritiesE = erwartet zum Jahresende, F = Prognose

Quelle: Australian Government Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, ETF SecuritiesE = erwartet zum Jahresende, F = Prognose

Quelle: EIA, ETF SecuritiesE = erwartet zum Jahresende, F = Prognose


CHINAS’ APPETIT FÜR ROHSTOFFE BLEIBT STARK

P 8

119%

79%

41%29% 23%

16% 10% 10% 9% 4%

-37%

-54%-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Gold Bauxite NaturalGas

Copper Platinum Zinc Iron Ore Nickel Palladium Oil Lead Tin

Source: Bloomberg, China Customs, ETF Securities

China’s Commodity Import Growth 2013 YoY %

Wachstum Chinesischer Rohstoff-Importe in 2013

Quelle: Bloomberg, China Customs, ETF Securities


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Rising per Capita Incomes Drive Commodity Demand

Brazil

China

Egypt

UK

Australia

USA

Japan

Italy

Russia

Mexico

Malaysia

GermanyFrance

India

Data as of 2011Sources: World Bank, ETF Securities

Ene

rgy

Use

(Kg

of o

il eq

uiva

lent

per

cap

ita)

GDP per capita (current '000 US$)

…UND SOLLTE ÜBER DIE KOMMENDEN JAHRE STARK BLEIBEN

P 9

Steigendes Pro-Kopf-Einkommen treibt Rohstoff-Nachfrage

Quelle: World Bank, ETF SecuritiesStand: 2011


STEIGENDE NACHFRAGE DURCH VORANSCHREITENDE URBANISIERUNG

P 10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10019

50

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

% o

f pop

ulati

on li

ving

in u

rban

are

asUrbanisation Rates

Forecast Brazil Russia India

China UK USA

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

Urbanisierungsrate%

-An

teil

der

Bev

ölk

eru

ng

der

in

urb

anen

Geb

iete

n l

ebt

Quelle: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

P 11

VERSTÄDTERUNG ALS GRO ER EINFLUSSFAKTOR FÜR ẞERHÖHTE ROHSTOFFNACHFRAGE

Shanghai - 1991

Shanghai - 2013


P 12

ENTWICKLUNG IN DUBAI

Dubai - 2005

Dubai - 1991



POTENTIAL STEIGENDER ROHSTOFFPREISE DURCH ERHOLUNG DER US-WIRTSCHAFT

P 13

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

US Leading Index (Left, y-o-y) DJUBS Commodity Index (Right, y-o-y)

DJ-UBS Commodity Index vs US Leading Index


ROHSTOFFE ALS ANLAGEKLASSE

P 14

P 15

CHANCEN DURCH ROHSTOFFANLAGEN

DIVERSIFIKATIONS- VORTEILE

WIRTSCHAFTS-WACHSTUMS IN

SCHWELLEN-MÄRKTEN

POSITIVE KORRELATION

ZUR INFLATION

Aufgrund von historisch langfristig niedriger Korrelation

zu traditionellen Bond- und

Aktienindizes

Steigende Nachfrage von rapide

wachsenden Industrienationen

treiben Rohstoffpreise nach

oben

In Zeiten hoher und unerwarteter

Inflation haben Rohstoffe

rückblickend häufig besser performed


P 16

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

MSCI World EPRA/NAREIT Global Barclays Global Bond

1 Yr Daily Rolling Correlations with CommoditiesDaily Data, From December 1993 to February 2014

September 2008

DIVERSIFIKATIONSEIGENSCHAFTEN VON ROHSTOFFEN

Quelle: ETF Securities, BloombergRohstoffe durch DJ UBS Commodity Index repräsentiert

Täglich gleitende Jahreskorrelation mit RohstoffenTägl. Daten von Dez. 1993 – 2013


P 17

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014

Commodities vs. InflationYoY % change on quarterly data, from Mar 31, 1994 to Mar 31, 2014

US inflation (LHS) DJ UBS TR Commodity Index

SIGNIFIKANTER ZUSAMMENHANG ZWISCHEN ROHSTOFFPREISEN UND INFLATION

Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg

Rohstoffe vs. InflationJährl. %, vierteljährl, 30.Sep. 1993-2013


Quelle: ETF Securities, Bloomberg

P 18

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MSCI AC World

Barclays Capital Bond Composite-Global Index

All Commodities F3

Precious metals basket

Gold

Performance of Equity, Bond and Commodity over 10 years

STARKE PERFORMANCE VON ROHSTOFFEN IM LETZTEN JAHRZEHNT

Quelle: ETF Securities, Bloomberg

Performance von Aktien, Anleihen und Rohstoffen über 10 Jahre



ROHSTOFF-PERFORMANCE IM ÜBERBLICK

P 19

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 10yr avg

Real Estate Commodities Real Estate Commodities Bonds Real Estate Real Estate Bonds Real Estate Equities Commodities Real Estate

38.0% 35.9% 42.4% 24.5% 6.8% 38.3% 20.4% 7.7% 28.7% 22.8% 6.0% 8.8%

Commodities Real Estate Equities Equities Cash Equities Commodities Cash Equities Real Estate Real Estate Commodities

25.3% 15.4% 21.0% 11.7% 2.1% 34.6% 18.7% 0.2% 16.1% 4.4% 3.2% 7.3%

Equities Equities Commodities Bonds Commodities Commodities Equities Real Estate Bonds Cash Bonds Equities

15.2% 10.8% 14.9% 7.9% -30.4% 22.5% 12.7% -5.8% 3.7% 0.2% 2.5% 7.2%

Bonds Cash Bonds Cash Equities Bonds Bonds Equities Cash Bonds Equities Bonds

5.9% 2.6% 4.9% 3.9% -42.2% 6.5% 6.4% -7.3% 0.3% -2.8% 0.3% 4.6%

Cash Bonds Cash Real Estate Real Estate Cash Cash Commodities Commodities Commodities Cash Cash

1.2% -0.2% 3.8% -7.0% -47.7% 0.5% 0.2% -9.4% -1.3% -8.5% 0.0% 1.5%

Sources: ETF Securities, Bloomberg

Data: Equity - MSCI World, Bond - Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index, Real Estate - EPRA/NAREIT Global, Commodity - DJ-UBS F3 All Commodities, Cash - US T-Bill 3 Mth

From 2003 to March 2014

Year

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e R

an

kin

g

1

2

3

4

5


PALLADIUM, KUPFER UND BLEI ALS BESTE PERFORMER IN WACHSTUMSMÄRKTEN

P 20

Quelle: Bloomberg, ETF SecuritiesAverage monthly performance during the best 20% months of growth performance over the past 10 years (from October 2003 to October 2013). Growth is calculated as the simple average of US ISM and EU PMI growth on a 3-month moving average basis. Commodity performance is calculated from the relevant commodity-specific sub-indices of the DJ-UBS Commodity IndexSM.Monthly returns are in USD from October 2003 to October 2013.

Performance von Rohstoffen wenn Produktionszyklus zulegt

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Pal

ladi

umC

oppe

rLe

ad

Car

bon

Zin

cN

icke

lIn

dust

rial M

eta

lsT

inS

ilver

Coc

oaA

lum

inum

Pla

tinum

Bre

nt O

il 1

Yr

WT

I Oil

1 Y

rU

nlea

ded

Gas

olin

eB

rent

Oil

2 Y

rsC

otto

nP

M B

aske

tB

rent

Oil

1 M

onth

Bre

nt C

rude

WT

I Oil

2 Y

rsW

TI O

il 2

Mon

ths

Pet

role

umW

TI C

rude

Oil

Hea

ting

Oil

WT

I Oil

3 Y

rsP

reci

ous

Met

als

Soy

bean

sB

rent

Oil

3 Y

rsE

x-E

nerg

yG

old

All

Com

mod

itie

sS

ofts

Sug

arE

nerg

yC

offe

eA

gric

ultu

reS

oybe

an O

ilG

rain

sLe

an

Hog

sLi

vest

ock

Live

Cat

tleC

orn

Whe

atN

atur

al G

as


PLATIN UND PALLADIUMSTEIGENDE NACHFRAGE + PRODUKTIONSUNTERBRECHUNGEN = STARKES ANGEBOTSDEFIZIT

P 21


UNTERSCHIEDLICHE NACHFRAGE-FAKTOREN FÜR PLATIN UND PALLADIUM

P 22

37%

6%2%3%9%

33%

3%2%

5%

Autocatalyst

Chemical

Electrical

Glass

Investment

Jewellery

Medical & Biomedical

Petroleum

Other

Global Platinum Demand by Application % of Total Gross Demand, 2013 data

Source: Johnson Matthey, ETF Securities

72%

6%

5%

11%

1%4% 1%

Autocatalyst

Chemical

Dental

Electrical

Investment

Jewellery

Other

Global Palladium Demand by Application % of Total Gross Demand, 2013 data


Globale Platin Nachfrage, nach Anwendung% von der Gesamtnachfrage, Daten von 2013

Globale Palladium Nachfrage, nach Anwendung% von der Gesamtnachfrage, Daten von 2013

Quelle: Johnson Matthey, ETF Securities Quelle: Johnson Matthey, ETF Securities


CHINAS’ PLATIN-SCHMUCKBEDARF – EINE IMMER WICHTIGER WERDENDE NACHFRAGEQUELLE

P 23

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

Total Autocatalyst Demand

China Jewellery Demand


China Jewellery is a Growing Source of Platinum Demand% of Total Platinum Demand, Annual data, From 2003 to 2013

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F


China Platinum Jewellery Demand'000 ounces, Annual data, From 2003 to 2013

Chinas‘ Schmuckindustrie als Quelle für Platin-Nachfrage% von Platin-Gesamtnachfrage, jährl. Daten, 2003 - 2013

Chinas‘ Platin-Schmuck-Nachfragetsd. Unzen, jährl. Daten, 2003 - 2013


ANGEBOTSDEFIZIT BEI PLATIN UND PALLADIUM

P 24

-5%

-1% -1%

4%

-1%-3%

9%

0%

5%

-4%

-8%

15%

22%

11%

15%

17%

7% 8%

-6%

12%

-13%

-8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F*

Platinum Palladium

Platinum and Palladium Deficit/Surplus as a % of Total Supply

Source: Johnson Matthey, ETF Securities* Johnson Matthey estimates as of November 2013.

Platin und Palladium Defizit/Überschuss, % globales Angebot

Quelle: Johnson Matthey, ETF Securities


MITTELFRISTIGE PREISUNTERGRENZE DURCH HOHE PRODUKTIONSKOSTEN

P 25

Kosten für Platin-Produktion sind gestiegenUSD/Unze, jährliche Daten, 31.12.2002 – 31.12.2013

Quelle: Bloomberg, ETF Securities* Der Durchschnitt wurde anhand der zwei größten Platin Produzenten, die 69% der gesamten Platin-Produktion umfassen,Anglo American Platinum und Impala Platinum

P 26

PLATINANGEBOT ZU 72% AUF SÜDAFRIKA KONZENTRIERT

Quelle: Johnson Matthey, ETF Securities

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

South Africa Russia North America Zimbabwe Others

2013 71.8%2012 72.4%2011 74.9%2010 76.6%2009 76.9%2008 76.0%2007 76.8%2006 77.5%2005 77.0%

Anteil Südafrikas an der Gesamtversorgung

Angebot durch Platinminen nach Ländern, in ‘000 Unzen



KUPFERSTARKE NACHFRAGE, ÜBERSCHÄTZTES ANGEBOT

P 27


INDUSTRIEMETALLE KORRELIEREN TENDIENZIELL VERZÖGERT, ABER STARK MIT DEM PRODUKTIONSZYKLUS

P 28

Industriemetalle vs. Industrieproduktion% jährlich; monatliche Daten von 28.02.1994 - 28.02.2014

Quelle: Bloomberg*DJ-UBS Industrial Metals Total Return Sub-IndexSM


ABBAU GLOBALER KUPFER-LAGERBESTÄNDE

P 29

KupferbeständeTägliche Daten, 21.02.2013 – 21.02.2014


VERSTÄRKTE AUFLÖSUNG VON LME LAGERSCHEINEN AUF KUPFER = STEIGENDE PHYSISCHE NACHFRAGE

P 30

Rekordnahe Auflösungen von LME Lagerscheinentsd. Lagerscheine, 12.03.1998 – 12.03. 2014

Quelle: Bloomberg


ETF SECURITIES KONTAKTDATEN

P 31


WICHTIGE HINWEISE (I)

P 32

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified investors as such term is defined in Directive 2010/73/EU and professional investors as such term is defined in Directive 2004/39/EC.

The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (“CSL”), ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited (“HCSL”), ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (“HMSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (“SCSL”), ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”), ETFS Industrial Metal Securities Limited (“IML”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (“MSL”), ETFS Oil Securities Limited (“OSL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (“GBS” and, together with CSL, HCSL, HMSL, SCSL, FXL, IML, MSL and OSL, the “Issuers”) and ETFX Fund Company plc (the “Company”). Each Issuer is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a “ Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the “Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended).

Italy: When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the “qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

Switzerland: When being made within Switzerland, this communication is for the exclusive use by “Qualified Investors” (within the meaning of Article 10 of Section 3 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act (“CISA”) and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

US: This communication is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof, where none of the Issuers, the Company or any securities issued by them are authorised or registered for distribution and where no prospectus for any of the Issuers or the Company has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority. Neither this communication nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. Neither the Issuers, the Company nor any securities issued by them have been or will be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the Investment Company Act of 1940 or qualified under any applicable state securities statutes.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this communication may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this communication solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities nor shall any securities be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchaser or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of such jurisdiction. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Securities issued by the Issuers and the Company may be structured products involving a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This communication is aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant Issuer or the Company which includes, inter alia, information on certain risks associated with an investment. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may be priced in US Dollars, Euros, or Sterling, and the value of the investment in other currencies will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities of the Issuers or the shares of the Company which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor.

Investors should refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuers and the Company.

The relevant prospectus for each Issuer and the Company may be obtained from www.etfsecurities.com. Please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or [email protected] for more information.

http://www.etfsecurities.com/

mailto:[email protected]


WICHTIGE HINWEISE (II)

P 33

General











Risk Warnings







WICHTIGE HINWEISE (III)

P 34

General











Risk Warnings






zugang zu globalen rohstoffmÄrkten mit etps family office forum, wiesbaden 2014 bernhard wenger –...

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