欢迎 16 october 2014 cnrec economic costs of air-pollution from the energy sector niels bisgaard...
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欢迎16 October 2014 CNREC
Economic Costs of Air-pollution from the Energy Sector
Niels Bisgaard Pedersen, DEA
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Beijing, The Guardian 14/01/2013
PROGRAM
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3Source: OECD
Beijing
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Externalities
• A cost or benefit that affects a third party who did not chose to incur that cost/benefit
• Noise, air-pollution, water-pollution, accidents, waiting-time in transportation, visual pollution of the landscape, damage on flora and fauna etc.
• Local, trans-border and global impacts• Irreversible or reversible damage impacts
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Externalities
• PRIVATE COSTS – observed market costs • SOCIAL COSTS – includes damage imposed
by harmful air-emissions:• Green-house gasses - Global warming• SO2 – mortality, morbidity, acid rain, damage
agriculture and buildings• NOx – increased morbidity/mortality• PM2.5 – increased mortality/morbidity• Ozone – increased mortality/morbidity
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Consequence an negative externality
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Price is low and consumption to high, a non-efficient allocation of resources
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Social Costs - Principle
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Result:Produce and consume too much conventional and too little wind energy
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China
• A Word Bank reports that China’s• PM10 health damage represented nearly
700 billion RMB in 2009 or 2.8% of GDP• CO2 damage represents 1.0 % of GDP• Material damage from air pollution
represents 0.5 % of GDP• Other studies estimate health related
costs to pollution are 6% of GDP in 2005
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CNREC - DEA Study
• CNRECs scenario tool CREAM quantifies the direct cost of energy production from the different energy technologies and the emission of harmful gases from combustion of fossil fuels.
• But the more indirect environmental costs are not quantified. This activity will use methodologies from Europe, meteorological modelling for China and empiric data from China to integrate environmental cost in CREAM. Focus will be on health effect on human health from emission of SO2, NOx, and CO2.
• CNREC responsible: Xie Xuxuan. • DEA responsible: Niels Bisgaard Pedersen.• External Assistance Yanxu Zhang, Harvard University
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Impact Pathway Approach
Methodologies ResultSource – Scenarios Emissions of CO2, SO2, SO4,
NOx, PM2.5, PM10 etc.
Dispersion in the air. Travelling distance possibly chemical reactions in the atmosphere (atmospheric dispersion models)
Increase in pollutants concentration at receptor sites (concentration of substances in the air)
Dose-response function, exposure-response or concentration-response function
Impacts on human health in terms of mortality and morbidity
Monetary evaluation Economic Cost (loss of income, costs for health system)
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CNREC – DEA Scenarios 2015 - 2050CO2 emissions in million ton per year
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CNREC – DEA Scenarios 2015 - 2050SO2 emissions in million ton per year
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CNREC – DEA Scenarios 2015 - 2050NOx emissions in million ton per year
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CNREC – DEA Scenarios 2015 - 2050VOC emissions in million ton per year
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Atmospheric Dispersion Model
• An air-quality model for China (GEOS-Chem)
• Present day meteorological data (2004) and future emission data for 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050
• Spatial allocation based on existing inventories for China
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Predicted difference in concentration of ozone 2050 REF – MAX RE
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Predicted diffence in concentration of PM2.5 non-dust 2050 - REF – MAX RE
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Predicted diffence in concentration of SO2 2050 REF – MAX RE
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Predicted diffence in concentration of NOx 2050 - REF – MAX RE
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Pollutants and their impactsPrimary Pollutant Secondary
PollutantImpacts (End-points)
Particles MortalityCardio-pulmonary morbidity
SO2 MortalityCardio-pulmonary morbidity
SO4 Sulphates Like particlesNOx Morbidity (? Not
verified)NOx Nitrates Like particlesNOx+VOC Ozone Mortality
MorbidityCO Mortality
MorbidityGreenhouse Gases None directly (Global
warming)
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Impact of harmful air- emissions
• Estimation of human health impacts based on responsiveness to air-quality
• Impact Response function ΔMort= y0(1-e-βΔC)Pop• y0 is the baseline mortality rate,
• β is the concentration-response factor, • ΔC is the concentration difference of pollutants between RE and REF
scenarios,• Pop is the exposed population.
• β is derived from relative risks (RR) estimated in long-term epidemiological studies assuming log-linear relationships between pollutant concentrations and RR
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Quantification of impact of harmful air- emissions• Mortality from Ozone and PM2.5
• Ozone a concentration-response factor of 0.52% (0.27%-0.77% as 95% confidence interval) increase in mortality per 10 ppbv increase of ozone (Bell et al., 2004)
• PM2.5: Mean of four studies over China: 0.35% per 10 μg/m3increase and 2.96% per 10 μg/m3increase for long term impacts
• NOx impacts are uncertain and SO2 impacts are relatively small
• Population and mortality data for each province is based on National Bureau of Statistics of China
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Avoided number of deaths in China by following Max RE scenario 2015 -2050
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Avoided death are estimated to 1 750 000 for the period 2015 - 2050
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Economic valuation of health impact of harmful air- emissions• Monetisation according damage costs principles:
• Mortality• Lost income/Willingness To Pay (WTP)/Value of Statistical
Life (VSL)• VSL willingness to pay for a small reduction in the risk of
premature mortality• Morbidity
• Increased illness, hospitalisation, medication, lost working days (respiratory diseases)
• VSL for China = 1.68 million RMB in 2010 price level• Economic Value = 2.9 trillion RMB 2015 – 2050 = 83
billion RMB per year in average
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Economic costs from premature mortality in Million RMBDifference between REF and MAX RE
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Marginal costs benefits of emission on human health in China - RE scenario+- 10%
SO2 RMB per ton
Nox RMB per ton VOC RMB per ton
4 800 21 900 2 700
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Economic Costs of CO2 emissions
Source Costs of CO2 per ton Comment
ExternE project 25 USD 2 700
Emission Trade Systems China
3.6 – 20 USD 6 pilot projects
Emission Trade System Europe
< 1 USD Number of emission permission too high.
Long term forecast 45 USD
Environmental Protection Agency
21 USD Damage cost assessment. Recently
updated. Recommended
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Economic Costs of air-pollutionMillion RMB
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Future Directions
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Uncertainty Solution
More pollutants needs analysed PM10 etc.
Only mortality and damage from CO2 is included
Morbidity, impact in agriculture and material damage should be included
Dose – Response function Long term cohort studies in China
Spatial allocation of emission the same in the two scenarios
Calculate emissions at a regional level in CREAM
Present meteorological conditions for the whole period
Feed back between air-pollution and climate change needs to be taken into consideration
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Internalisation - Policy
• Taxes and duties on CO2, SO2, Nox to reduce pollution
• CO2 trading schemes• Revenue to support renewable energy
deployment wind, solar and biomass• High environmental standards for power
plants, heavy industry, vehicles and fuels