Обзор рынка коммерческой недвижимости Варшавы 2009
DESCRIPTION
Обзор рынка коммерческой недвижимости Варшавы от Cushman&Wakefield, презентованный на бизнес-форуме «Недвижимость. Инвестиции & Девелопмент. Европейский опыт и белорусская реальность», организованном компанией "Твоя столица" в Минске.TRANSCRIPT
Market PresentationFebruary 2010
Warsawreal estatemarket
2
WarsawWarsaw-- basicbasic datadata
3
About Warsaw
Capital of Poland, business centerThe largest city of Poland:
1,7 mln inhabitants (metropolitan area: 2,8 mln)city area: 516.9 km² (metropolitan area: 6,100 km²)
Warsaw
Central Business District
4
Warsaw commercial real estate market in figures(4Q 2009)
3 248 000 m²of office space
1 600 000 m²of retail space
2 483 000 m²of industrial space
20 680accommodation placesin 10 650hotel rooms
5
WarsawWarsawoofficefficemarketmarket
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Warsaw Office Market
Rents and Vacancy Rates in CBD and NCL in Warsaw
€ 0,00
€ 5,00
€ 10,00
€ 15,00
€ 20,00
€ 25,00
€ 30,00
€ 35,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
forecast
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
Prime rents CBD Prime rents NCLVacancy rate CBD Vacancy rate NCL
Stock in Warsaw (in m²)
2 376 769 2 557 136 2 707 8192 978 904
3 248 197 3404197
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
forecast
Warsaw stock in 2009
3 248 197 m²
7
Key Office Projects in Warsaw
Wolf Marszałkowska, WarsawDeveloper: Wolf ImmobilienTotal space: 14,400 m²
Wilanów Office Park, WarsawInvestor / Developer: Polnord WarszawaTotal space: 169,000 m²
Business Garden, WarsawDeveloper: Inter IKEA Group – SwedeCenterTotal space: 90,000 m²
Platinium Business Park, WarsawDeveloper: GTCTotal space: 45,000 m²
Metropolitan, WarsawClient: Aberdeen Total space: 69,300 m²
Marynarska Business Park, WarsawClient: AberdeenTotal area: 86,600 m²
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WarsawWarsawrretailetailmarketmarket
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Warsaw Retail Market
Shopping centres in Warsaw (in m²)
170007000
73500
12 000
33 000
52 650
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
forecast
Warsaw stock in 2009
1 600 000 m²
Prime rents in shopping centres in Warsaw (EUR/m²/month)
65
75 75
83 81
50
60
70
80
90
4Q 2007 2Q 2008 4Q 2008 2Q 2009 4Q 2009
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Key Retail Projects in Poland
Galeria Malta, PoznańDeveloper: NeinverGLA: 53,000 m²
IKEA Port Łódź, ŁódźDeveloper: Inter IKEA Centre Polska GLA: 100,000 m²
Galeria Słoneczna, RadomDeveloper : AIG / LincolnGLA: 40,000 m²
Galeria Katowicka, KatowiceDeveloper: Neinver/PKPGLA: 52,000 m²
Złote Tarasy, WarsawDeveloper: ING Real EstateGLA: 63,500 m²
Wola Park, WarsawDeveloper: Wola ParkGLA: 72,846 m²
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WarsawWarsaw iindustrialndustrial marketmarket
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Supply and demand in Warsaw (in m²)
050 000
100 000150 000200 000250 000300 000350 000400 000450 000500 000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* forecastAnnual supply - Warsaw city Annual supply - Warsaw region
Annual demand - Warsaw region Annual demand - Warsaw city
Warsaw Industrial Market
Warsaw stock in 2009
2 483 000 m²
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Key Industrial Projects in Poland
ProLogis Park Wrocław IV, WrocławDeveloper: ProLogisTenant: NG2Size: 10,800 m²
Panattoni Park Wrocław, WrocławDeveloper: PanattoniTenant: HemmersbachSize: 8,000 m²
Europolis Park Poland Center,Piotrków TrybunalskiDeveloper: Europolis Tenant: FM LogisticSize: 35,000 m²
ProLogis Park Błonie II, BłonieDeveloper: ProLogisTenant: AntalisSize: 52,000 m²
Panattoni Poznań, PoznańDeveloper: PanattoniTenant: Hennes&Mauritz, Hellmann, Piotr i PawełSize: 127,000 m²
ProLogis Park Sochaczew, SochaczewDeveloper: ProLogisTenant: Procter & Gamble, DHLSize: 100,390 m²
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HotelsHotels
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Hospitality market in Warsaw
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*forecast
2011*forecast
2012*forecast
num
ber o
f roo
ms
and
acco
mm
odat
ion
plac
es
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
num
ber o
f hot
els
numebr of accommodation places number of rooms number of hotels
Warsaw Hospitality Market
Number of hotels in Warsaw in 2009
9
16
22
610
0
5
10
15
20
25
1-star 2-stars 3-stars 4-stars 5-stars
20 680 accommodation places
10 650 hotel rooms
Key development factors:organisation of the European Football Championships in 2012 –expected increase of tourists over 2 to 4 years period after championshipsbusiness concentration – demand generated mainly by corporate clientspotential niche in the economy class hotel sectorpotential in the construction of hotels near airports and railway stations
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Key Hospitality Projects in Poland
Sheraton, Poznań5 stars, 181 rooms, 360 accommodation places
Mikołajki Project Hotel, Mikołajki5 stars, 152 rooms, 304 accommodation places
Wioślarska Hotel Project, Warsaw4 stars, 100 rooms, 200 accommodation places
Mercure Jelenia Góra, Jelenia Góra 3 stars, 188 rooms, 364 accommodation places
Hilton Garden Inn Project, Kraków 4 stars, 154 rooms,300 accomodation places
Łeba Hotel, Łeba 3 stars, 73 rooms,186 accommodation places
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InvestmentInvestment
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Investment Market
Office investment deals 2005 - 2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Tota
l cum
ulat
ive
(bn
EU
R
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Transactions annually (mln E
UR
)Total cumulative Warsaw CBD 115,00 Warsaw NCL Other cities
Cushman & Wakefield key transactions in Poland
Real estate propertyportfolio of Simon Ivanhoe – selling 5 shopping centres
Real estate property portfolio of Casino Group –selling 339.686 m² of space
Prime yield 2005 - 2009
4,00%5,00%6,00%7,00%8,00%9,00%
10,00%11,00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
industrial retail office CBD office NCL
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ConclusionConclusion
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Warsaw real estate market forecasts
supply demand rents vacancy
office market
CBD
NCL
retail market
industrial market
hospitality market
price level
21
Thank you!Thank you!