© 2009 münchener rückversicherungs-gesellschaft © 2009 munich reinsurance company natcatservice...

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NatCatSERVICE

The loss data base for natural catastrophes

Petra Löw

Natural catastrophes in Europe* 1980 – 2009Number of events

Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)

Meteorological events(Storm)

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)

© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010

Nu

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er

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*Countries defined by EEA

NatCatSERVICE

Natural catastrophes in Europe* 1980 – 2009Overall and insured losses

US

$bn

Overall losses (in 2009 values) Insured losses (in 2009 values)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*Countries defined by EEA

NatCatSERVICE







3,500 Loss events3,500 Loss events 86,000 Fatalities86,000 Fatalities

Overall losses* US$ 375bn Overall losses* US$ 375bn Insured losses* US$ 105bnInsured losses* US$ 105bn

*in 2009 values *in Werten von 2009

Natural catastrophes in Europe* 1980 – 2009Percentage distribution worldwide

*in 2009 values

10%

40%34%

16% 4% 3%5%

88%

19%

27%

34%

20% 14%

54%

27%

5%

*Countries defined by EEA

NatCatSERVICE


Continent Number of events Fatalities Overall losses US$ m

Insured losses US $ m

Africa 78 730 375 -

America 312 865 22.000 12.000

Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500

Australia/Oceania 76 770 2.070 950

Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000

14%

6%

29% 34%

9%

9%

Global natural catastrophes 2009Percentage distribution of events per continent

NatCatSERVICE


71%



Africa 78 730 375 -

America 312 865 22.000 12.000

Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500


Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000

6%

3%

8%5%

7%

Global natural catastrophes 2009Percentage distribution of fatalities per continent

NatCatSERVICE


23%31%

40%



Africa 78 730 375 -

America 312 865 22.000 12.000

Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500


Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000

1%

1%

4%

Global natural catastrophes 2009Percentage distribution of overall losses per continent

NatCatSERVICE


60%

28%



Africa 78 730 375 -

America 312 865 22.000 12.000

Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500


Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000

5%

7%

Global natural catastrophes 2009Percentage distribution of insured losses per continent

NatCatSERVICE


Definition - Breakdown into catastrophe categories

Catastrophe class Overall losses and/or fatalities

Loss profile 1980s* 1990s* 2000 – 2008*

0 Natural event No property damage - - - none

1 Small-scale loss event Small-scale property damage

- - - 1-9

2 Moderate loss event Moderate property and structural damage

- - - > 10

3 Severe catastrophe Severe property, infrastructure and structural damage

US$ >25m US$ > 40m US$ > 50m > 20

4 Major catastrophe Major property, infrastructure and structural damage

US$ > 85m US$ > 160m US$ > 200m > 100

5 Devastating catastrophe

Devastating losses within the affected region

US$ > 275m US$ > 400m US$ > 500m > 500

6 Great natural catastrophe „GREAT disaster“

Region’s ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary, thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude.

* Losses adjusted to the decade average.

NatCatSERVICE


Natural catastrophes in Europe 2009Catastrophe category 0

Cat. Subevent

0 te: Tempest/Severe storm S, Brest; Gomel

0 bs: Blizzard/Snowstorm W, Sankt Petersburg

0 te: Tempest/Severe storm S, Cote d'Azur, Var, Embrun

0 wf: Wildfire NW, Liguria, La Spezia, Genova

0 ls: Landslide N, Trentino, South Tyrol, Brixen, Sterzing

0 wf: Wildfire W, Bergen, Schoorl

0 wf: Wildfire NE, N, Braganca, Quinta da Paiva, Braga, Viseu, Guarda, Oporto

Affected Area

28.8.2009 D: Wildfire Single Netherlands 3 blazes threatened buildings. Evacuated: 550.

18.-31.8.2009 D: Wildfires Single Portugal Several seats of forest-, brush fires. 240 km² of land affected.

5.-16.9.2009 D: Wildfire Single Italy 8 km² of forest burnt.

4.9.2009 C: Landslide Single Italy Mudslide. Main road affected, highway between Brixen and Sterzing 4 hours closed due to safety reasons. Traffic jam up to 20 km.

26.12.2009 B: Snowstorm Single Russian Federation (Europe) Heavy snowfall (30cm). Flights delayed. Rail-, traffic suspended.

23.10.2009 B: Severe storm Single France Heavy rain. 2 rivers burst their banks. Roads closed. Traffic disrupted. Evacuations.

29.12.2009 B: Severe storm Single Belarus High wind speeds, heavy snowfall. Power lines downed, >360 towns without electricty.

Period Event Ass. Type Description

NatCatSERVICE

Cat. category Number of events Cat. category Number of events

0 7

1 42 4 6

2 57 5 5

3 14 6 -


Geo Risks Research DepartmentThe loss data base for natural catastrophes

NatCatSERVICE


Year Development

1974 Systematic buildup of a global natural hazard archive

1990 D-Base application

1995 Fox-Pro application, with Oracle database

2008C# application based on Microsoft .NET 2.0 Frameworkswith Oracle database and SQL Server 2005 Reporting Services.

Geo Risks Research DepartmentThe loss data base for natural catastrophes

NatCatSERVICE


Each year about 800 events are documented.

Year Number of data sets

0079 - 999 30

1000 - 1499 200

1500 - 1899 1 000

1900 - 1949 1 000

1950 - 1979 2 120

1980 - 2008 19 500

26,000 data sets

Number of data sets NatCatSERVICE


Access & User

Service

Methodology

& Definitions

Data

Munich Re NatCatSERVICEMore than data

NatCatSERVICE


Expert Consultation

Harmonizing terminology of disaster perils

CRED

Participants

Regina Below CRED EM-Dat

Susanna Schwarz

Swiss Re sigma

Hajime Nakano ADRC GLIDE

Julio Serge UNDP DesInventar

Angelika WirtzPetra Löw

Munich Re NatCatSERVICE

Methodology NatCatSERVICE


Geophysical

Family

Meteorological

Hydrological

Climatological

Earthquake

Volcanic eruption

Mass movement dry

Earthquake (Ground shaking)

Fire following

Tsunami

Volcanic eruption

Subsidence

Rockfall

Landslide

Structure – peril families

Main event Sub Peril

NatCatSERVICE


Storm

Tropical cyclone

Winter storm (extratropical cyclone)

Tempest/Severe storm

Hail storm

Lightning

Tornado

Local windstorm (orographic storm)

Sandstorm/Dust storm

Blizzard/Snowstorm


Geophysical

Family

Meteorological

Hydrological

Climatological


NatCatSERVICE


Flood

Mass movement wet

General flood

Flash flood

Storm surge

Glacial lake outburst flood

Subsidence

Avalanche

Landslide


Geophysical

Family

Meteorological

Hydrological

Climatological


NatCatSERVICE


Extreme temperature

Drought

Wildfire

Heat wave

Cold wave / frost

Extreme winter conditions

Drought

Wildfire

Unspecified


Geophysical

Family

Meteorological

Hydrological

Climatological


NatCatSERVICE


Entry details: example Hurricane Ike NatCatSERVICE


RegionDetailsDamages

Hurrikane Ike






Multi-Region-Event

USA CubaTurks & Caicos

Dom. Rep. Haiti Bahamas

NatCatSERVICE


Affected regionScientific detailsDamageAffected people



Entry details: example multi peril event

Typhoon

Flood Landslide Tornado

NatCatSERVICE


Science Government, UN, EU, NGOs

News-AgenciesInsurance

Sources NatCatSERVICE


Source

No

Quality level 6 FURTHER RESEARCH

Yes

Sources & data quality I NatCatSERVICE


Source

No


Yes

At least one source of first-class quality

• Information about losses: very good

1

• Information about losses: implausible

4

• Information about losses: not available• No event description

5

FURTHER RESEARCH

• Information about losses: not available• Event description:

plausible 2

Sources & data quality II NatCatSERVICE


Source

No


Yes

At least one source of first-class quality Second class source

One source• Information about losses: very good

1


4


5

FURTHER RESEARCH


plausible 2

• Information about losses: available• Event description: plausible 3


plausible 4

•Information about losses:

implausible 5 FURTHER RESEARCH

Sources & data quality III NatCatSERVICE


Source

No


At least one source of third-class quality

• Information about losses: available• Event description:

plausible 2

• Information about damage: not available• Event description:

plausible 3

•Information about losses: implausible

4

• Information about losses: available• Event description:

detailed 3


available 5 FURTHER RESEARCH


6 FURTHER RESEARCH

Yes

At least one source of first-class quality Second class source

One source Several Sources• Information about losses: very good

1


4


5

FURTHER RESEARCH


plausible 2

• Information about losses: available• Event description: plausible 3


plausible 4

•Information about losses:

implausible 5 FURTHER RESEARCH

Sources & data quality IV NatCatSERVICE


Entry details: example Hurrican Ike NatCatSERVICE


30/o09/2008

Insured losses

Munich Re shareAdditional loss information

Overall losses

Example: Hurrican Ike - Damages NatCatSERVICE


ScienceGeneral public

Political committees

Analysts, investors

Clients

Staff

NatCatSERVICE

Access & User NatCatSERVICE

Preconditions for a high quality data base

Money neutrality

Long-term staff, expercience

Independance (of any internal / external influence)

Neutrality - from company‘s philosophy (freedom to research)

Consistency – stable harbour

Clear standards and methodology

Access to a wide group of experts in different disciplines

Access to original and first-class sources

NatCatSERVICE

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Thank you for your attention


Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)

Meteorological events (Storm)


Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)

Selection of significant natural catastrophes (see table)

200 Global natural catastrophes

4

5

3

12

7

8

6

Haiti, EQ, 225,000 deaths

Chile, EQ, est. 8bn - 30bn US$ Hailstorm, Melbourne,

730m US$ insured

Winter damage Florida, 30 % of crops destroyed

Natural Catastrophes January-March 2010World map

NatCatSERVICE

3,900 Loss events3,900 Loss events 91,600 Fatalities91,600 Fatalities





© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010

NatCatSERVICE

Natural catastrophes 1980 – 2009Percentage distribution ordered by type of event

Earthquake8%

Volcano1%

Mass movement dry (ls, ro, su)

1%

Blizzard / Snowstorm

2% Hailstorm4%

Local windstorm5%

Tempest/Severe storm21%

Tornado3%Winter storm

6%

Flash flood9%

Flood14%

Mass movement wet (av, ls, ro)

11%

Drought2%

Heat wave1%

Wildfire3%

Winter damage10%

Earthquake2%


1%

Winter storm1%

Flash flood1%

Flood1%


1%

Drought43%

Heat wave47%

Wildfire2%

Overall losses* US$ 450bn Overall losses* US$ 450bn Insured losses* US$ 140bnInsured losses* US$ 140bn






NatCatSERVICE

Natural catastrophes 1980 – 2009Percentage distribution ordered by type of event

Earthquake12%


3%


1%

Hailstorm2%

Local windstorm1%


4%

Winter storm25%

Flash flood2%

Flood27%


1%

Drought11%

Heat wave5%

Wildfire3% Winter damage

2%Earthquake

1%


10%


2%Hailstorm

4%

Local wind storm1%


7%

Winter storm48%

Flash flood2%

Flood20%

Wildfire4%

* in 2009 values * in 2009 values

© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2010

NatCatSERVICE

Significant natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 200910 costliest natural catastrophes ordered by overall losses


Insured losses

12-20.8.2002 Floods, severe storms

Germany. Austria. Czech Republic. Hungary. Moldova. Switzerland. Slovakia

3,400 40

July-August 2003 Heat wave, drought France. Germany. Italy. Portugal. Romania. Spain. United Kingdom

20 70,000

23.11.1980 Earthquake Italy: Irpinia, Basilicata, Potenza, Salerno, Benevento, Naples

40 2,900

26.12.1999 Winter Storm Lothar France. Germany. Switzerland. Belgium. Austria 5,900 110

18-20.1.2007 Winter Storm Kyrill United Kingdom. Germany. France. Netherlands. Belgium. Denmark. Austria

5,800 50

4-6.11.1994 Floods, flash floods Italy: Piedmont; Lombardy, Liguria, Valle d'Aosta, Emilia

65 70

13-20.10.2000 Floods, landslides Italy: Valle d'Aosta; Piedmont; Lombardy, Emilia Romagna. Switzerland: Valais, Ticino. France

470 40

25-26.1.1990 Winter Storm Daria Belgium. Denmark. France. Germany. Ireland. Netherlands. Sweden. United Kingdom

5,100 90

26.9.1997 Earthquakes Italy: Umbria, Marche esp. Assisi, Collecurti, Cesi, Nocera Umbra, Foligno, Perugia

6 10

5.7-10.8.1997 Floods Poland. Czech Republic. Slovakia. Germany. Austria.

795 1205,900

16,500

13,800

11,800

11,500

10,000

9,300

8,500

6,850

6,000

Period Event Affected AreaOverall losses

FatalitiesUS$ m, original values


NatCatSERVICE

Significant natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 200910 costliest natural catastrophes ordered by insured losses


Insured losses

26.12.1999 Winter Storm Lothar France. Germany. Switzerland. Belgium. Austria 5,900 110

18-20.1.2007 Winter Storm Kyrill United Kingdom. Germany. France. Netherlands. Belgium. Denmark. Austria

5,800 50

25-26.1.1990 Winter Storm Daria Belgium. Denmark. France. Germany. Ireland. Netherlands. Sweden. United Kingdom

5,100 90


Germany. Austria. Czech Republic. Hungary. Moldova. Switzerland. Slovakia

3,400 40

15-16.10.1987 Winter storm France. Norway. Spain. United Kingdom 3,100 20

20-23.7.2007 Floods United Kingdom: England, Worcestershire; Oxfordshire; Gloucestershire. Wales

3,000 1

23-25.1.2009 Winter Storm Klaus France. Spain. Italy 3,000 26


United Kingdom: Yorkshire, Hull, Humberside; Sheffield; Worcestershire; Rotherham, Wakefield

3,000 5

7-9.1.2005 Winter Storm Erwin (Gudrun)

Denmark. Estonia. Finland. Germany. Lithuania. Norway. Sweden. United Kingdom

2,600 20

27-28.12.1999 Winter Storm Martin France. Spain. Switzerland 2,500 304,100

11,500

10,000

6,850

16,500

3,900

4,000

5,100

4,000

5,800




NatCatSERVICE

Significant natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2009 10 deadliest natural catastrophes


Insured losses

July-August 2003 Heat wave, drought France. Germany. Italy. Portugal. Romania. Spain. United Kingdom

20 70,000

23.11.1980 Earthquake Italy: Irpinia, Basilicata, Potenza, Salerno, Benevento, Naples

40 2,900

July 2006 Heat wave France. Germany. Italy. Portugal. Romania. Spain. United Kingdom

2,080

20-31.7.1987 Heat wave Greece: Entire country, esp. Attica, Athens 2,000

16.1-5.2.2006 Cold wave Bulgaria. Belarus. Croatia. Czech Republic. Estonia. Germany. Greece. Italy. Latvia. Lithuania

790

July 1983 Heat wave France: Marseille 500

9.-10.6.1984 Tornadoes Russian Federation: Gorkiy, Ivanovo, Kostroma, Yaroslavl, Kalinin areas

400

October 2001-March 2002

Cold wave Russian Federation: Moscow, Altai, Norilsk, Leningrad, Krasnodar

380

19.7.1985 Flash flood, dam burst

Italy: Stava, Tesero, Cavalese 300

16.11-18.12.1998 Cold wave Romania. Poland. Latvia. Russia. Moldova. Hungary. Bulgaria. France. Italy. Germany

300

13,800

11,800

1,400

15




Significant natural catastrophes (selection)

Great natural catastrophes: 2009 no event met the requirement “Great

naturalcatastrophe”

2009: 850 natural catastrophesGeophysical events(Earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption)

Meteorological events(Storm)Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)


Natural catastrophes 2009Worldmap

NatCatSERVICE


• Global version available in:

German, English, French, Italian, Spanish

• US version (Engl.)• Asia version (Engl.,Chinese)• Australia/Oceania version (Engl.)

Annual publication since 1994 Edition

Topics Geo – Review of the year of natural catastrophes


Download-Center

There are 50 documents available in each language version

NatCatSERVICE


Sources & data quality V

Data quality 1 - 6

NatCatSERVICE


30/09/2008

US$ Euro Original currency

Automatic currency conversion NatCatSERVICE

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