!! assessment!of!post+2020! mi0ga0on!scenarios! · sectorial!mi0ga0on! ac0on!plans!(smaps)! •...
TRANSCRIPT
Assessment of Post-‐2020
Mi0ga0on Scenarios Analy&cal input for Colombia’s INDC assessment
Outline
1. Background: Low Carbon Development Strategy 2. Technical inputs for INDC determinaDon process 3. PMR analyDcal support 4. Main elements 5. Nexus with Colombia’s MRP
• Sectoral reference scenarios up to 2040
• IdenDficaDon of sectoral miDgaDon opDons
• Assessment of abatement potenDal and costs
Component 1 2012-‐2013
ProjecDon of sectoral reference scenarios;
formulaDon of low carbon development alternaDves
• PrioriDzaDon of miDgaDon opDons prioriDzaDon (NAMAs, programs and policies) to be included in the SMAPs.
• Design of policies, plans, and measures.
Component 2 2013-‐2014
Sectoral Mi0ga0on Ac0on Plans -‐ SMAPs
• AdopDon of Sectoral MiDgaDon AcDon Plans – SMAPs ImplementaDon • Policies; • NAMAs/Projects
• Development of MRV system • Local implementaDon
Component 3 Ongoing
SMAP implementaDon; development and
implementaDon of monitoring & reporDng system
Component 4. Capacity building
Component 5. Stakeholder parDcipaDon & CommunicaDon pla]orm
Colombia’s Low Carbon Development Strategy
Sectorial Mi0ga0on Ac0on Plans (SMAPs)
• IdenDficaDon and prioriDzaDon of strategic lines of acDon for each sector
Sectorial Mi0ga0on Scenarios (boIom-‐up
analysis)
• Baseline and reference scenarios 2010-‐2040, by sectors • Sector Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs)
Carbon Calculator 2050 • Projected emissions up to 2050 • Sectoral measures and scope (4 ambiDon levels)
Aggregated mi0ga0on scenarios &
top-‐down analysis of macroeconomic impacts
• Types of economy-‐wide miDgaDon targets; • RBS and equiDy scenarios for naDonal discussion on
ambiDon and fairness; • Establishment of aggregated BAU & miDgaDon scenarios • Macroeconomic impacts (MEG4C-‐ Colombian CGE model)
Overview: Technical Inputs for Colombia’s INDC determina0on process
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Supplemental sector analysis (boIom-‐up)
• Analysis of select sector measures to increase level of ambiDon (CCAP)
• AddiDonal analysis in the AFOLU sector (IFPRI-‐CIAT)
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Objec0ves: PMR Analy0cal Support
ü Providing technical informaDon and macroeconomic analysis on emissions scenarios and enabling policy instruments;
ü Enhancing the understanding of opportuniDes and challenges behind different types of economy-‐wide miDgaDon objecDves in the Colombian context;
ü Strengthening the modeling capacity in Colombia for analyzing miDgaDon pathways, enabling policy opDons and macro-‐economic impacts.
Macroeconomic AssumpDons
1. Sector assessment of mi0ga0on op0ons
(using sectoral models) SBT’s
Agriculture Electricity Coal, oil and gas Transport ResidenDal Industry Waste
Sector experts Decision-‐makers
Government Academy
SMAPs Government (Ministries)
agents involved
2. Assessment of inter-‐sectoral interac0ons &
macroeconomic impacts (Integra0on of BU-‐TD models)
3. Post-‐2020 mi0ga0on scenarios
Work in Progress
Analysis of co-‐benefits Other acDviDes and
analysis
sectoral experts government
academy
Input on policies & ac0ons for mid-‐ and long-‐term mi0ga0on objec0ves in
Colombia
Methodology: PMR Analy0cal Support
Agriculture
Livestock
Agriculture
Waste
Waste water
Industry
Community Solid Waste
Transport
Passenger
Freight
Energy
Supply
Demand Sector energía
Oferta
Generación eléctrica
SIN
ZNI
CombusDbles fósiles
Crudo
Carbón
Gas natural
Demanda
Industria
Residencial & Comercial
1. Sector assessment of mi0ga0on op0ons (BU) Baseline scenarios (by sectors)
Main Elements
Boiom–up assessment
Linking of BU/TD models
Top-‐Down analysis • GDP & sector output
• Consump0on • Distribu0onal effects
• Interna0onal trade • Others
2. Intersectoral rela0ons & macroeconomic impact assessment
Main Elements
MM1 Energy
MM2 Transport
MM3 Agriculture
So[-‐linking MEG4C CGE (DNP) / Markal sector model (Uniandes)
(Merven, B. et al. 2013) , (Drouet, L., Labriet, M. L., & Vielle, M. 2008)
2. Intersectoral rela0ons & macroeconomic impact assessment
Main Elements
• Preliminary analysis of economy-‐wide impacts of a carbon price has been carried on with MEG4C by DNP. This analyisis will be enhanced with expanded MEG4C.
• Preceding analysis: the impacts of three levels of carbon tax (10, 20, 50 USD per tonne of CO2) were evaluated
• Two oil price scenarios were modeled – “Low price scenario” oil reaches and remains at $ 80 per barrel – “Medium price scenario” $100 per barrel – With & without revenue recycling
-‐30%
-‐25%
-‐20%
-‐15%
-‐10%
-‐5%
0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Mi0ga0on compared to BAU -‐ Low oil price
Tax $10
Tax $20
Tax $50
-‐0.80%
-‐0.70%
-‐0.60%
-‐0.50%
-‐0.40%
-‐0.30%
-‐0.20%
-‐0.10%
0.00% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
10 Tax with RM
20 Tax with RM
50 Tax with RM
GDP
Carbon Price: first-‐order assessment of macro-‐economic impact
Output Baseline (2013)
Goal 2018
Percentage of journeys made by sustainable modes in 8 ci0es 27% 40% Outcome Baseline
(2013) Goal 2018
Intervened kilometers of road infrastructure to urban transport systems
854 908
Infrastructure spaces dedicated to intermodality 31 44 Output Baseline
(2013) Goal 2018
Average age of freight vehicle with gross vehicle weight greater than 10.5 tonnes
19 15
Outcome Baseline (2013)
Goal 2018
Disintegrated vehicles with a gross vehicle weight greater than 10.5 tonnes
8.000 22.000
Reports on the Na0onal Register of Freight Delivery (RNDC) 1.500.000 6.000.000
Review drawing upon recently adopted sector development plans, in parDcular Transport SMAP 2013 and NaDonal Development Plan 2014-‐2018:
Refined Analysis of Sector Mi0ga0on Op0ons
Nexus with Colombia’s MRP
MBI1: Credited NAMAs in the urban transport sector
MBI2: Fossil fuel surcharge and domesDc offset scheme
MBI3: Performance standard for vehicles combined with allowances
MRV System in Transport Sector
Colombia MRP: Readiness roadmap for implementaDon of miDgaDon acDons & enabling policy instruments in the transport sector
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve: Transport Sector
Demand-‐side measures Efficient light bulbs
Sectoral GDP
Decrease Electricity GDP
Household Consumption
Decreases electricity
consump0on of households
Increases disposable income
Increased consuption for other goods
Increase GDP
0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% 0.10% 0.12% 0.14% 0.16%
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Percent change in national GDP
Macro-‐economic impact assessment of implementa0on of set of transport mi0ga0on ac0ons
Item AcDviDes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
1
Report on the types of n a D o n a l c o n t r i b u D o n (includes presentaDons to agents and informaDve document)
2 Scenarios required by science
3 Forward integraDon with Markal MEG4C
4 Baseline scenario emissions
5 Scenar io eva luaDon o f measures NDP
6 SelecDon Procces (MiDgaDon opDons)
7 Rev i s i on g reen g rowth policies
8 P r o p o s e d M i D g a D o n Scenar ios (packages of measures)
9 Socioeconomic's impact
10 Instruments evaluated and results
11 Final Results
Work Schedule
Colombia´s MRP –Transport Sector
NAMAs needs to include MRV concept aligned with naDonal MRV
Regulatory inputs and insDtuDonal structuring: relevant for all market instruments
Drar regulaDon text: Legal base for implementaDon of all market instruments
Baseline and measures will be guided by miDgaDon scenarios defined with the analyDcal support
Includes the evaluaDon of exisDng structure (GSBO-‐MADS). Key for all market instruments (Basis for implemenDng instruments analyzed on analyDcal work)
The analyDcal work will help to strength modeling capacity in Colombia for analyzing miDgaDon pathways, including transport sector.
Colombia’s MRP – Transport Sector
Colombia’s MRP Upstream Analy0cal Work
Colombia’s MRP Upstream Analy0cal Work
Colombia’s MRP Upstream Analy0cal Work
Colombia’s MRP Upstream Analy0cal Work
Colombia’s MRP Upstream Analy0cal Work
Colombia’s MRP Upstream Analy0cal Work