++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ beyond kyoto a long-term target: framing the climate effort prepared...
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Beyond KyotoA Long-Term Target:
Framing the Climate Effort
Prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change by
Jonathan Pershing (International Energy Agency)
Fernando Tudela (El Colegio de México)
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Climate Change: a long-term challenge
Impacts: huge time lags (over a century)
Mitigation: long life cycles Political systems: ill prepared to cope
with long-term problems Societies heavily discount
distant impacts:
Time line
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Long-term targets
Article 2 UNFCCC: stabilize concentrations to avoid dangerous interference…+ qualifier..
UNFCCC + KP: emphasis on short-term action
Climate regime needs bolstering
Could negotiating a long-term
target be useful / essential to
boost / guide action?
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The case for long-term targets
Defining a goal for climate efforts Awareness of long-term consequences Calibrating progress: Are we on track? Enhancing economic certainty:
stable signals for technological change Limiting future risks Mobilizing society Promoting global participation
Some Parties are already adopting non-binding
long-term targets: EU, UK, Sweden
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle
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The Climate Cycle: Backcasting
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Setting targets at different stages A target at any stage has effects on the
othersTarget setting involves the whole cycle
Entry point would frame the process– Early stages: strongest control, shorter time lags– Later stages: higher legitimacy (specific risks
avoided), but: huge time lags + accumulated uncertainties
The paper addresses target setting at every stage:
– Possible form of the target – implications for other stages– Pros & cons– Negotiation´s hurdles
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CO2, temperature, impacts, emissions, and cost
Eventual CO2 Stabilization level†
Time of stabili-zation*
Mean surface tempera-ture change by 2100**
Mean surface tempera-ture change (at equilib-rium)**
Risks by 2100
Five selected reasons of concern***
(white- red scale)
Cumula-tive Carbon Emissions 1990-2100 ****
(GtC)
Possible pathway
(Global emissions peaking at…GtC/ year, by year…)
Cost:
Global average GDP reduction in year 2050
450 ppm 2100 1.2 - 2.3°C 1.5 – 3.9°C I: white; II, III: yellow-orange; IV, V: orange-red
630- 650 9 GtC by 2020
1- 4.1%
550 ppm 2150 1.6 – 2.9°C 2.0 – 5.0°C I: yellow; II, III: yellow-orange; IV, V: red
870- 990 11 GtC no later than 2030
0.1- 1.7%
650 ppm 2200 1.8 – 3.1°C 2.4 – 6.1°C I: yellow; II, III: orange; IV, V: red
1030-1190 ___ 0- 1.5%
750 ppm 2250 1.9 – 3.4°C 2.8 – 7.0°C I: yellow; II, III: orange; IV, V: red
1200- 1300 13 GtC by 2070
0- 1.0%
1000 ppm 2375 2.0 – 3.5°C 3.5 – 8.7°C I: yellow-orange; II, III: orange; IV, V: red
____ ____ ___
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Setting a long-term target: the obstacles
Technical difficulties: uncertainties Political obstacles:
– Global burden defined burden sharing
– defining “acceptable risk” compensations
– Equity issues become central
– Dilemma: negotiation´s success vs stringency of outcome
– Limited “negotiating energy”; morale hurt by failure
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Conclusions
Negotiating a long-term target: liabilities outweigh potential benefits
If undertaken at all, the negotiation should focus on the earliest stages of the cycle: activities, emissions [input rather than output]
Alternatives to a long-term target: Hedging: a medium-term target that would leave
some long-term concentration target open Targets with limited constituency (but including
leading players) Notional target, informal adoption Directional goad based on strengthened science
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A Hedging Strategy
Source: IPCC
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Conclusions II
More important than any tool, including target-setting, is willingness to act
The value of developing a long-term target will depend on whether or not the negotiating process fosters political will
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For More Information
www.pewclimate.org