© boardworks ltd 2009 1 of 38 climate change consequences climate change

© Boardworks Ltd 20091 of 38

Cli

mat

e C

han

ge

Co

nse

qu

ence

s

Cli

mat

e C

han

ge


Contents

Contents

Predictions and the IPCC

Climate change around the world

Oceans

Potential benefits

Response: local and voluntary

International response

Teacher’s notes included in the Notes Page

Flash activity (these activities are not editable) Web addresses Printable activity

Extension activity

Icons:


Key questions: Predictions and the

IPCC

Predictions and the IPCC

What is the IPCC?

What are climate change scenarios?

What are the findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report?

What are the environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change?

By the end of this chapter you should have considered these key themes and questions:


The IPCC

data about the atmosphere

What does IPCC stand for?

What sort of evidence do you think has been collected?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established by the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Environment Programme (UNEP).

It was set up in 1988 to provide information about the causes of climate change, its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences and response options.

sea level information

data about extent of ice. greenhouse gas concentrations


IPCC scenarios


The Fourth Assessment Report

In 2007, the IPCC released its fourth report on climate change, its potential effects, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The report had massive significance because it stated that…

"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal."


Global impacts


Climate change impacts


Key questions: Climate change around the worldClimate change

around the world

What does the future hold for the UK’s climate?

What are the impacts on the Arctic?

What extreme weather events will increase?

What impacts will climate change have on human health?

How will Africa be affected by climate change?



UK climate change predictions


Melting Arctic ice

In 2006, NASA reported that the amount of permanent Arctic sea ice had decreased by 14% between 2004 and 2005; an area three times the size of the UK.

With less ice to reflect the sun’s rays, more is absorbed by darker soil and oceans, which then become warmer and melt ice more rapidly.

This vicious circle is the ice albedo positive feedback loop.

At current rates, an estimated 50–60% could be lost by 2100.


Arctic impacts


Hurricane frequency and intensity will increase. Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in August 2005, the worst year on record for hurricanes.

Extreme weather

Drought conditions will intensify due to rainfall shortages in arid and semi-arid areas, such as south-east Australia and east Africa.

The IPCC predict that the occurrence of extreme weather events will increase as a result of climate change.

Flooding risk will intensify as a result of increased rainfall and/or rising sea levels, for example, in Bangladesh.


Global health impacts

In what ways could climate change affect human health?

A rise in temperature of less than 1°C could cause the expansion of the regions at risk from malaria.

How will the influence of climate change on health combine with other issues for human welfare?

Increased heat waves, floods and droughts increase the burden of malnutrition and diarrhoeal diseases on societies.

Diarrhoeal disease is also predicted to increase, with the poorest parts of the population being worst affected.


Climate change in Africa

Drought more common especially in vulnerable arid/semi-arid areas, for instance, in the Sahel.

Since 1900 Africa has warmed by 0.5°C. Some inland areas have experienced increases of twice the global average.

In 2007 UNEP stated that 14 countries in Africa were suffering from water scarcity.

By 2032 11 more are likely to be added to this figure.

How has rainfall been affected?

Overall reduction in rainfall and increasingly unreliable rainy season.


Agricultural impacts in Africa

Reduced and unpredictable rainfall has limited the available growing season for crops, for instance, Sub-Saharan countries have experienced a 20% reduction.

How has climate change affected agricultural production?

This has the potential to cause massive problems because much of Africa’s agricultural production relies on natural rainfall and is subsistence level in nature.

How important is agriculture to economies in Africa?


Difficulties in Sub-Saharan Africa


Key questions: Oceans

Oceans

What impacts will sea level rise have on the UK?

How will the thermohaline circulation and ocean salinity be affected by climate change?

Why has the Southern Ocean stopped absorbing carbon dioxide?



UK sea level rise


Sea level rise effects in the UK

Salinization of freshwater and agricultural land.

Loss of coastal habitats like salt marshes and wetlands, especially those ‘hemmed in’ by coastal defences.

How is the UK likely to be affected by sea level rise?

Accelerated coastal erosion could cause loss of buildings, rail and road links and resulting economic impact.

Increased vulnerability to storm surges.


Impact on the thermohaline circulation

It is driven by the difference in density between the warmer, less dense water at the tropics, and the colder, denser, salty water that sinks at the poles.

The circulation drives currents and modifies the climate and ecosystems in different parts of the world.

The thermohaline circulation is a ‘global conveyor belt’ that redistributes heat from the warm equator to the cold poles.

The North Atlantic Drift, a warm ocean current, is the reason why sub-tropical plants are able to grow

in the Isles of Scilly off the Cornish coast!


Global ocean salinity

Melting ice releases freshwater into the oceans. This ‘dilutes’ the ocean, reducing salinity.

How might the North Atlantic Drift be affected and what could the consequences be for Europe?

What impact do melting ice caps and glaciers have on the thermohaline circulation?

This causes ocean density to fall and the rate the ocean sinks at the Arctic is slowing down.

The whole thermohaline circulation is slowing down and some scientists predict parts of it could shut down altogether.


The Southern Ocean ‘carbon sink’

The Southern Ocean is a vital ‘carbon sink’. The cold, dense seawater around the Antarctic absorbs excess CO2 from the atmosphere and can mediate the impacts of global warming.

However, since 1981, carbon dioxide concentrations in the Southern Ocean have remained static even though CO2 emissions to the atmosphere have increased by 40% during this time.

It is thought that increased windiness is stirring up the ocean, releasing CO2 which would normally be stored.


Key questions: Potential benefits

Potential benefits

Are there any positive effects of climate change?

How does melting ice benefit the economy?

How is the UK affected positively?



All bad?

Since 1975 the area of Greenland’s ice sheet that melts each summer has increased by 30%. This has opened up fishing areas.

What might some of the benefits of climate change be?

tourism opportunities.

sea transport routes opened up

recreation opportunities

better access for fishing

Air Greenland now flies direct from Baltimore, USA to Greenland, aiming to attract tourists to the beautiful scenery.


Climate change has reduced arctic pack ice which has:

Arctic benefits

allowed tourist ships to access northern Canada

Is the opening of the Arctic to shipping all positive?

opened the Northwest Passage that was once frozen for all but six weeks a year

meant 30% of Inuit are now employed in tourism.


Positives and negatives in the UK


Key questions: Response: local or

voluntary

Response: local and voluntary

What can individuals do in response to climate change?

What are the benefits of the congestion charge in London?

What are companies doing voluntarily in response to climate change?



Individuals tackling climate change


A local response

The London congestion charge, introduced in 2003, has:

The income from the £8 per day charge has been invested in public transport and old, polluting buses have been updated.

reduced traffic by 15%

cut congestion by 30%

reduced NOx and CO2

emissions by 12%

cut accidents by 5%.

Whilst congestion reducing schemes are primarily driven by socio-economic desires to ‘unclog’ cities, they have positive impacts on the environment too.


What voluntary changes have big businesses made to their operations in response to climate change worries?

Transnational corporation action

BP reduced its GHG emissions by 10% within just 3 years in 1998, after aiming for a 12 year deadline. It invested $20 million in greener technology, but has saved $650 million as a result.

Shell pumps waste CO2 from its oil refinery in the Netherlands to 500 greenhouses. The growing conditions of fruit and vegetables are improved using 170,000 tons of waste emissions.

Why do you think companies are eager to be seen to be tackling their greenhouse gas emissions?


It is a method of carbon offsetting. Trees are planted that remove excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through the natural process of photosynthesis.

Voluntary carbon sequestration

Coldplay off-set the emissions created by the production of their second album through a sequestration project in India.

What is carbon sequestration?

However, of the 10,000 trees distributed, only a few hundred survived in the arid conditions in which they were planted.

What does the failure of this scheme say about the reliability of carbon sequestration?


Key questions: International response

International response

What is carbon offsetting?

How is the EU tackling climate change?

What is the Kyoto Protocol?

How successful has Kyoto been?



Carbon trading


The Kyoto Protocol


How has the EU both succeeded and failed with Kyoto?

The EU and Kyoto

Successes:

2003: the European Environment Agency reported that EU emissions increased. Ireland, Spain and Portugal have made no progress and are a long way off their targets.

1990–2002: Germany reduced its emissions by 19% and is responsible for three-quarters of Europe’s reductions.1990–2000: the UK reduced its GHG emissions by 12.8%.

Failures:


Summary quiz


Glossary

© boardworks ltd 2009 1 of 38 climate change consequences climate change

Documents