‘ CLIMATE CHANGE’-The macro –micro link

Indian Network on Ethics & Climate Change

(INECC)

Youth Summit, Guwahati May 2011

The Macro Perspective

Temperature Anomaly & Projections – (2090 – 2099)

Disaster? Or Catastrophe?

5

Inter-linkage between CC, Depletion of Natural Resources & Poverty

Accelerated Global ClimaticChanges

Evidence of Changes in Local Climate

Depletion of Resources

Industrial Processes to serve demand

Greenhouse gas emissions

Demand from urban elites

Raw materials needed for Industries

LIFESTYLESTECHNOLOGY

Who is Responsible?

Mainly Industrial countries Over 80% of CO2 emissions in last 150 years from richer

countries

But who suffers?

The poor not only are most impacted by the problem of climate change but are low energy (carbon) users and therefore do not contribute to the Climate problem!

India’s Fuel Share of Energy Consumption

Can we sustain a continuation of past trends of energy use ?

Commercial Energy Requirements in Reference Scenario

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2001/02 2006/07 2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32

year

mto

e

Coal Natural Gas Oil

Hydro (large & small) Nuclear Solar & Wind

Total

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Energy security:Where will all the coal and oil come from?

Infrastructure:How will all this energy be transported/handled?

Environment:What will be the implications on local and global environment?Source: TERI

Energy Mix Under Alternative Scenarios

Primary commercial energy supply - 2031(mtoe)

0

430

860

1290

1720

2150

Reference Evolution Resolution Ambition

Coal Natural Gas Oil Hydro Nuclear Renewables Energy Saving

12

TERI

Village Electrification (June 2009) STATES PERCENTAGE OF

UNELECTRIFIED VILLAGES

JHARKHAND 68.9ORISSA 44.2ARUNACHAL PRADESH 43.2TRIPURA 42.8MEGHALAYA 40.7BIHAR 38.7NAGALAND 35.6RAJASTHAN 30.8ASSAM 21.4

Source / Systems

Estimated Potential Cumulative Installed Capacity (as on 31.03.05) (MW)

Potential Utilised

(%)

Wind Power 45000 3595 7.98

Biomass Power 16000 303 1.89

Bagasse Co-generation 3500 447 12.80

Small Hydro (up to 25 MW)

150001706

11.37

Waste to Energy Municipal Solid Waste Industrial Waste

17001000

1730 1

2.95

Solar 20 MW /sq km.

3 Negligible22 GW by 2022

Total7000

Source: Akshay Urja: Renewable Energy March-June Vol 1. Issue 2&3, 2005

Estimated Potential & Utilised Potential - Renewable Energy

Our Stake In The Climate Change Issue

• Impact of climate change will affect us all drastically

• The issue raises the question of model of development that is being followed today and the issue of social justice

• India’s emissions are increasing and we have to address this issue at some point

The Key Issue Industrial World responsible for emissions in the past

but the Developing countries will increase emissions in the future

The Developed World cannot solve the Climate Crisis on its own

Issues of Poverty & Development will have to be addressed if developing countries have to be part of the solution

Underlying equations and questions!

Energy consumption= Fossil fuel use=increased

emissions=climate crisis Energy = Growth Growth related to development? What is the nature of development that we

seek?

What Should We Do?

• Reduce Dependence on Fossil Fuels – Reduced GHG emissions

Explore Renewable Energy sources like Sun, Wind, Biomass, Water etc. (DEOs)-a vital approach in Indian Scenario (56%)

– Reduces GHG emissions– Resources for generating power is locally available– Develops local ownership and control– Ensures sustainability of Development

• Support vulnerable communities adapt• Make Sustainable Lifestyle Choices

Way AheadDelink Emissions from DevelopmentDefine an Alternate Paradigm to development which is a ‘Low Carbon Pathway’

THANK- YOU!