© OECD/IEA 2010

Cecilia TamInternational Energy Agency

Martin TaylorNuclear Energy Agency

The Role of Nuclear Energy in aSustainable Energy Future

Paris, 27 May 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010

Energy-related CO2 Emissions in the WEO-2009 Reference Scenario

In cumulative terms, by 2030 emissions are 35 Gt lower than in WEO-2008. 75% of this reduction is due to the financial crisis, 25% to new policies

Mto

e Other renewables

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

WEO-2008 total

Global energy demand grows by average 1.5% p.a. to 2030; 22% more oil, 42% more gas, 53% more coal than today

Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009

© OECD/IEA 2010

A Sustainable Energy Future: The ‘450 Scenario’

Efficiency accounts for 2/3 of the 3.8 Gt abatement in 2020. Renewables contribute 20%. With substantial abatement potential outside the OECD+

region, financing will be key to meeting a 450 ppm trajectory.

2007 2015 2020 2025 2030

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

450 Scenario

Reference Scenario

OECD+

Other Major Economies

Other Countries

3.8 Gt

13.8 Gt

Nuclear– 10%

CCS – 10%

Efficiency – 45%

Renewables & biofuels – 21%Nuclear– 13%

CCS – 20%

Efficiency – 67%

Renewables & biofuels – 19%Nuclear – 8%

CCS – 6%Efficiency – 55%

Renewables & biofuels – 34%Nuclear– 9%

WorldBy regionAbatement by technology, 2030

Efficiency – 57%

Renewables & biofuels – 23%

Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009

Key Technology Options

Contribution of different technologies and measures to CO2 emission reductions in the BLUE Map scenario, compared to the Baseline

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%

End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis

© OECD/IEA 2010

© O

EC

D/I

EA

200

9

Based on a scenario to halve CO2 emissions by 2050

Establish a baseline of technology status today

Identify and address technology-specific barriers

Create technical, policy, legal, financial, and public acceptance milestones and priority near-term actions

Create a process for stakeholder collaboration

Special developing country focus on engagement, national roadmaps

Identify partners for implementation

Support technology diffusion, knowledge sharing among countries

The Role of the IEA Energy Technology Roadmaps

Present Status of Roadmaps

2009 releases• Carbon capture & storage, Electric vehicles,

Cement sector, Wind energy

2010 releases• Solar PV and Concentrating solar power – May• Nuclear power – June• Efficient buildings: heating and cooling – September• Smart grids and Biofuels – November• Vehicle efficiency and Geothermal power – December

2011 releases• Hydrogen & fuel cells; Clean/high-efficiency coal;

Energy efficiency in buildings: design & operation;Biomass combustion for heat & power

Gas20.9%

Nuclear13.8%

Hydro15.6%Oil

5.7%Biomass

and waste1.3%

Wind0.9%

Other*0.3%

Coal41.6%

World

19 756 TWh

Gas21.7%

Nuclear21.4%

Hydro11.8%

Oil4.1%

Biomass and waste

2.0%

Wind1.4%

Other*0.4%

Coal37.2%

OECD

10 642 TWh

Nuclear is Already a Widely Used Low-Carbon Technology

Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009

© OECD/IEA 2010

A New Age of Electrification

Under the Baseline, fossil fuels continue to dominate.In BLUE Map, nuclear provides 24% of global electricity production.

In the High Nuclear case, nuclear provides 38%

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050 BLUE High Nuclear 2050

PWh

Other

Solar

Wind

Biomass and waste + CCS

Biomass and waste

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas + CCS

Natural gas

Oil

Coal + CCS

Coal

© OECD/IEA 2010

Nuclear Competitiveness (1)

Levelised Cost of Electricity Generation by Region (5% Discount Rate)

Nuclear is already a very cost competitive technologySource: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, IEA/NEA 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010

Nuclear Competitiveness (2)

Levelised Cost of Electricity Generation by Region (10% Discount Rate)

But nuclear costs depend strongly on the discount rateSource: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, IEA/NEA 2010

Nuclear is a proven technology and can play an important role in a low-carbon strategy

Installed capacity could reach 1 200 GW and supply 24% of the world’s electricity in 2050 under the ETP BLUE Map scenario

Political support and public acceptance are key for implementation of a nuclear programme

Financing nuclear is another key challenge Expansion of nuclear industry capacities and skilled

workforce needed In the longer term, Generation IV technologies could

reduce costs and improve performance and security

Nuclear Roadmap Prepared by IEA and NEA: Key Findings

Growth of Nuclear Capacity and Electricity Generation to 2050

Nuclear capacity triples in the BLUE Map scenario, and its share of electricity generation rises from 14% today to 24% in 2050. Under a High Nuclear case,

nuclear capacity could reach 2 000 GW, providing 38% of electricity

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Shar

e o

f glo

bal

ele

ctri

city

pro

du

ctio

n

Inst

alle

d c

apac

ity

GW

Africa & Middle East

Economies in Transition

Other Developing Asia

OECD Pacific

OECD Europe

Latin America

US & Canada

India

China

BLUE Map

BLUE High Nuclear

© OECD/IEA 2010

Selected Key Actions 2010-20

Demonstrate the ability to build the latest nuclear plant designs on time and within budget

Develop the industrial capacities and skilled human resources to support growth in nuclear capacity

Establish the required legal frameworks and institutions in countries where these do not yet exist

Encourage the participation of private sector investors in nuclear power projects

Make progress in implementing plans for permanent disposal of high-level radioactive wastes

Enhance public dialogue to inform stakeholders about the role of nuclear in energy strategy

Expand the supply of nuclear fuel in line with increased nuclear generating capacity

International collaboration is needed to expand nuclear around the world

China, 893

India, 389

Latin America,

116

US & Canada, 883

OECD Europe, 586

OECD Pacific, 615

Other Developing

Asia, 107

Economies in Transition,

330

Africa & Middle East,

56

Regional investment needs 2010 to 2050 USD bn

Non-OECD countries could represent half of the nuclear capacity in 2050 and greater international collaboration will be needed, particularly for

capacity building in new nuclear countries

© OECD/IEA 2010

Milestones for Development of Nuclear Technology

2010-2015

Life extension of existing plants Fully establish Gen III+ designs, operate FOAK plants2015-2020

Complete several Gen III+ plants, on time and cost Implement plans for geological disposal of HLW2020-2030

Demonstration of most promising Gen IV designs Complete RD&D for advanced fuel cycles2030-2050

Build & operate the first commercial Gen IV plants Increase use of nuclear in non-electricity sectors

© OECD/IEA 2010

Nuclear Roadmap will be released in late June 2010

www.iea.org/roadmaps