presented to the odni special security division research program
TRANSCRIPT
University of New Haven
Violent Groups at Home:Data and Findings on Membership, Association, & AffiliationPresented to the ODNI Special Security Division Research Program
Presentation OverviewIntroductionViolent Groups in the United StatesResearch & Findings on Violent Groups at HomeData for AnalysisA Potential Research AgendaIntelligence in Plain View & JDLRQuestions/CommentsViolent Groups in the United StatesDefinitions matter!Focusing on Terrorism eliminates 3/4 of the subject matter you are interested in
You gave me a definition to work with:Adjudicated Guideline A Allegiance to the United States
We study group-based violence, which we operationalize as:Terrorist organizationsViolent extremist organizationsTransnational criminal organizationsInstitute for the Study of Violent GroupsAll graphics and statistics in this presentation come from the Institute for the Study of Violent Groups (ISVG)
Based out of the University of New Haven, but really a consortium of universities and non-profit organizations
Mission: To maintain the largest and most comprehensive database on violent groups worldwide
Analyses of our database have been utilized to support decision-making at the strategic and operational levelsSupports five units of analysis
Theoretically:
Every event, is a part of an incident
Every incident was committed by at least one individual
Every individual is a member of at least one organization
Every organization is a part of at least one larger movementEvent Event Var. 1, Event Var. 2, , Event Var. XIncident Inc. Var. 1, Inc. Var. 2, ., Inc. Var. XInd. Var. 1, Ind. Var. 2, ., Ind. Var. XOrg. Var. 1, Org. Var. 2, ., Org. Var. XIndividual OrganizationMov Var. 1, Mov Var. 2, ., Mov Var. XMovementRelational Database Conceptual Model 2010 Institute for the Study of Violent GroupsWest Haven, CT 06516Each of these units of analysis are represented in the ISVG Relational Database with variables and link types that we can use to visualize and analyze networks based on open source information.
The variables and link types describe two general types of networks:
Operational networks of individuals, groups, and organizations based on the actions they engage inAssociations networks of individuals, groups, and organizations based on the relationships they keep
Altogether, there are more than 1,500 variables in the database and more than 100 link types for building, visualizing, and analyzing networks.Building Networks through Operational and Associational Coding 2010 Institute for the Study of Violent GroupsWest Haven, CT 06516An operational network is a grouping of individuals, groups, and organizations through at least one event type.
The ISVG database has 25 basic event types that describe the actions of terrorist, extremist, and criminal actors.
Violent
Armed AttackArsonBombingCBRNHijackingHostage-TakingKidnapping
Non-Violent Logistical
CeasefireCommunicationFinancingMeetingTravel
Criminal
BriberyCounterfeitingEscapeExtortionFinancingIllicit TransactionsPiracyRobberyTraffickingInterventions
Military OperationPolice Operation
Civil Court Actions
Criminal Court Proceedings
Operational Networks 2010 Institute for the Study of Violent GroupsWest Haven, CT 06516Each event type has sub-categories to capture specific actions and variables to describe the attributes of each event. BombingOperational Networks
2010 Institute for the Study of Violent GroupsWest Haven, CT 06516The ISVG database also provides a link to describe each individual, group, and organizations involvement in an event.
Four Operational Linkage Types
Group Involved
Individual Involved
Responsible
Targeted
Note that the ISVG database can link groups to events through their individual members/associatesOperational Networks 2010 Institute for the Study of Violent GroupsWest Haven, CT 06516An associational network is a grouping of individuals, groups, and organizations through at least association type.
The ISVG database has more than 60 association types that fall into three categories
Association Networks 2010 Institute for the Study of Violent GroupsWest Haven, CT 06516Strategic Analyses
Strategic Insights about Domestic Threats
Operational Insights
Definitions for this PresentationTerrorist organizationA group that threatens violence or commits violence in furtherance of a political, religious, or social causeExtremist organizationA group that espouses or advocates violence in furtherance of a political, religious, or social causeTransnational criminal organizationA group that engages in illicit activities within the United States and has a significant portion of it operations and support activities outside of the United States.
All of these organizations fall under Adjudicative Guideline A Allegiance, section 4,c,1-4. Distribution of these Groups at HomeTransnational Criminal OrganizationsViolent Extremist OrganizationsTerrorist OrganizationsEvent DataISVG collects and analyzes data at the event, group, and individual level data Currently more than 225,000 events in the ISVG database (2004-present)In the United States, more than 70,000 events (2004-present)60% of these events related to transnational criminal organizations30% of these events related to violent extremist organizationsApproximately 10% of these events related to terrorist organizationsThese events have occurred in every state in the United States, but there are definitely strong geographic clusters by event type and perpetrator typeGroup-Level DataISVG collects and analyzes data at the event, group, and individual level data Currently more than 4,000 violent groups in the ISVG database (2004-present)In the United States, more than 2,000 violent groups75% are violent extremist organizations15% are transnational criminal organizationsLess than 10% are terrorist organizationsEvents where the perpetrator is unknown or unattributed are approximately 35% in the United States
Individual-Level DataISVG collects and analyzes data at the event, group, and individual level data Currently more than 40,000 individual profiles in the ISVG database (2004-present)In the United States, more than 26,000 individual profiles45% of these are linked to terrorist organizations35% of these are linked to violent extremist organizationsApproximately 20% are linked to transnational criminal organizations
ISVG has more than 300 variables about the backgrounds, associations, and organizations that these individuals are involved in.
Research MethodsA very understudied topic in academic social sciencesData issues (lack of data)PII issues (DHS and DOJ are very hesitant to fund this type of research)Common research methods:Content analysis/ethnographic studies of violent group membersMark Hamms work on right-wing & militia terrorists in the USTravel studies geographic span in the activities of terrorist networksBrent Smith & Kelly Damphouses work on Terrorism in Time & SpaceParticipant Observation usually very questionable findingsSeveral anonymous researchers infiltrate radical environmental groups, neo-nazi groups, and radical islamist organizationIntelligence in Plain View & JDLRMost of the people who are responsible for identifying and investigating violent groups in the US are local law enforcementMany of the best research findings about indicators of involvement in violent groups come from distilling the expertise of investigators and patrol officers that interact with these individualsWhen you extract this knowledge, it common that the indicator that the expert relied on most was that it just didnt look right or JDLR. JDLR is a phenomenon that we are trying to operationalize so that we can capture the details and expertise that triggered the indicator (this has not been successfully operationalized to date)Current research on this is about to start at Naval Research Laboratory Adversarial Modeling & Exploitation OfficeIntelligence in Plain View & JDLRSystematically examining, on a per domain basis, the expertise resident in law enforcement officials about violent groups could lead to a better understanding of the indicators that a person is a member, associate, or affiliate or a violent groupDomains:Physical appearance and dress of individual and associatesTraffic stopsHome/Residence interviews and searchOffice interviews and searchIntelligence in Plain View & JDLRISVGs assets to support this researchWe have the largest unclassified database of known individuals that are members of, associates of, or affiliates of violent groups in the United StatesWe have already collected data about their backgrounds and the backgrounds of their associatesWe have assembled much of the propaganda, symbology, and internet-based information about the violent groups themselvesWe know which of these individuals have been arrested and prosecuted, and the outcomes/dispositions of those proceedings.We have a constant, ongoing data collection effort to identify violent groups, their events, and their individuals moving forward that can be used support interviews and other methods of capturing expert knowledge. Questions?Thank you for your attention!
Questions? / Comments?