© prof. dr. georg erdmann 1 electricity systems with high renewable energy shares prof. dr. georg...
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© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Electricity Systems with High Renewable Energy Shares
Prof. Dr. Georg ErdmannTU Berlin; Chair Energy Systems
Member of the Federal Commission „Energie der Zukunft“
Seminary “Science for Energy Scenarios”organized by the “Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux
Énergies Alternatives » in Les Houche, 3 February 2014
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Gross Power Generation in Germany [Source: AGEB]
Gross electricity generation [TWh]
REN Oil Hard coal Lignite Gas Nuclear Other
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Biomass
PV
Wind
Hydro
Electricity generation [TWh]
Renewable Electricity in Germany [Source AGEB]
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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German Electricity Bill for Final Users [Data source: Destatis 2012]
10
20
30
40
50
60
Total expenditures of industrial, commercial and residential customers [without VAT; Billion Euros]
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
39 40 41 41 42 42 41 41 3934
38 3741 43
4751
5559 59
61 63 65
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Breakdown of the German Electricity Bill
2010 2011 2012 Change share
[bn. €] [bn. €] [bn. €] 2011/2 Total electricity bill (without VAT) 61.3 63.6 65.0 2.2% 100.0%Government induced elements 17.2 23.0 23.3 1.4% 35.8% - Electricity tax 6.4 7.2 7.0 -3.2% 10.7% - Concession fee 2.1 2.2 2.1 -5.8% 3.2% - Additional REN costs 8.3 13.4 14.0 4.7% 21.5% - CHP and other levies 0.4 0.2 0.3 29.2% 0.4%Government regulated elements 16.9 17.6 19.0 8.1% 29.3% - Transmission fees 2.2 2.2 2.6 18.3% 4.0% - Tistribution fees 14.7 15.4 16.4 6.6% 25.3%Market elements 27.2 23.0 22.7 -1.4% 34.9% - Market value of renewables 3.5 4.4 4.8 8.9% 7.4% - Generation, distribution and sales 23.7 18.6 17.9 -3.9% 27.5%
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Direct and indirect support of Renewables
New installations January 2014 Onshore wind
Offshore wind PV Biogas Bio-
methan
Net support (Feed-in ./. Market value) 62 162 92 164 187Integration Gas grid 22Avoided grid costs gas 19Extension electricity distribution grid 26 15 4 Extension electricity transmission grid 8 8 1 1 Offshore grid 26 Offshore levy 3 Short term merit order effect -28 -29 -32 -29 -29Backup capacity 27 22 27 Transmission losses 2 12 12Total 97 204 104 140 199- Thereoff for elektrizität 97 204 104 120 129- Thereoff for heat / gas grid 20 70
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German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010]
Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 40% 55% 70% 80-95%
Primary energy consumption 2008 20% 50%
Energy productivity 2.1% p.a.
Power consumption 2008 10% 25%
CHP electricity share 25%
Heat demand of building stock 2008 10%
Primary energy in building stock 80%
Modernization rate of buildings 2% p.a.
Final energy in transportation 2005 20% 40%
Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 Mio
REN share in energy consumption 18% 30% 45% 60%
REN electricity share 35% 50% 65% 80%
“Price” for more nuclear
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Assumed Renewable Electricity until 2050
2011 2015 2020 2030 2050 Secured load
Renewable share of power generation 12.0% 17.8% 35.0% 50.0% 80.0%
- Biogas 21.0% 19.0% 18.0% 22.0% 13.8% 100%
- Onshore wind 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% 30.0% 18.8% 3%
- Offshore wind 1.0% 4.0% 8.0% 14.0% 46.0% 9%
- Photovoltaik 15.0% 20.0% 22.0% 19.0% 11.9% 0%
- Other renewables 28.0% 22.0% 19.0% 15.0% 9.4% 70%
Renewable share without biogas 9.5% 14.2% 28.7% 39.0% 68.8%
Secured load 2.0% 2.4% 4.3% 4.9% 6.8%
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Volatility of Wind Power [Source: Ehlers 2011, S. 100]
0
4'000
8'000
12'000
16'000
20'000Wind power generation [MW]
Gradient8'000 MW/h
1.1.2010 31.1.2010
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
Virtually no capacity
contribution
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Power Supply Scenario for 2030with 50 Percent REN Electricity
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Load [GW]
Ordered load duration
Ordered residual load without biogas / bio-methane
100
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Remaining Non-renewable Power Plants
Generation capacity [GW]
Years in operation 2011 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuclear [GW] 12 10 4 0 0 0
Lignite [GW] 55 19 22 20 15 11 9
Hard coal [GW] 50 24 25 20 14 3 0
Gas [GW] 40 26 22 17 14 10 3
Others [GW] 40 14 14 12 10 8 5
Total [GW] 95 93 73 53 32 17
Total adjusted 15% 81 79 62 45 27 14
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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“Baseload” power
Power Supply Scenario for 2030with 50 Percent REN Electricity
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Load [GW]
Ordered load duration
Ordered residual load without biogas / bio-methane
Conventionalpower plants
100
Expectedannual operation
of new plants
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
13Ordered Day-ahead Prices in 2012
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
1440 2880 4320 5760 7200 8640
Day-ahead price 2012: Ø = 42.60 €/MWh
Without wind: Ø = 48.06 €/MWh
without wind + PV: Ø = 51.13 €/MWh Δ = 8.53 €/MWh
Day-ahead price [EUR/MWh]
Hours
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Ordered Prices in 2012 compared to prices Necessary for Financing new GT
Day-ahead price [EUR/MWh]
Hours-30
30
90
150
210
42,60 €/MWh
51.13 €/MWh at 500 h/a
52.50 €/MWh at 1000 h/a
54.07 €/MWh at 1500 h/a
55.80 €/MWh at 2000 h/a
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Backup Power Plant Operation in 2030
Residual load [GW]
Hour
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-20
No operation
ConsecutiveOperation
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Plant positionin the merit order
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Consecutive Operation in 2030 [at 25 GW]
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Consecutive Standstill in 2030 [at 45 GW]
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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Tack så mycket
Tel: +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax: +49 (030) 314 269 [email protected]@prognoseforum.de
© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
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