- slide 1 daad workshop new delhi "indien", 27. april 2007 the monsoon in india as a...

DAAD Workshop New Delhi "INDIEN", 27. April 2007

- Slide 1

The Monsoon in India as aSpatio-Temporal Resource for

Sustainable Landuse

Manfred DomroesProfessor

Dr. (Bonn, Geography/Meteorology)Dr.h.c. (Peradeniya University, Sri Lanka)


- Slide 2

Scientific biodata:

1959–65: University studies geography/meteorology, Münster and Bonn1965 Ph.D. University of Bonn1965-72: Senior Research Fellow, South Asia Institute (Geography),

Heidelberg1972: Habilitation (Thesis on "The agroclimate of Ceylon/Sri Lanka")1972-74: Professor of physical geography/climatology, Department of

Geography, Aachen1974…: Professor for physical geography/climatology, ecology and

environment, and Director, Department of Geography, Mainz

Honorary Professor, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BeijingGuest Proessor, Fujian Normal University, China


- Slide 3

The Monsoon(s)

nature and character

India/South Asia– equatorial Westerlies (summer) - wet

– north-east Passates (winter) - dry

(Flohn)

Quelle: FLOHN, H. (1950, 1960)


- Slide 4

Global Windsystems, January

Quelle: Diercke Weltatlas (2002)


- Slide 5

Windsystems South/Southeast Asia, January



- Slide 6

Global Windsystems, July



- Slide 7

Windsystems South/Southeast Asia, July



- Slide 8

All-India Precipitation, 1871-2000

11 13 11

26

53

164

274

243

170

78

31

12

Jan Feb Mär Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150°C

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300mm

Source: IITM (2006); D. Schaefer modified


- Slide 9

All-India Precipitation and Temperature, 1871-2000


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150°C

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300mm

Source: IITM (2006); D. Schafer modified

Winter: December - February

Pre-Monsoon: March - May

Monsoon: June - September

Post-Monsoon: October - November


- Slide 10

All-India Precipitation and Temperature, 1871-2000


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150°C

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300mm


Winter: December – February23 mm resp. 2 %

Pre-Monsoon: March – May95 mm resp. 9 %

Monsoon: June – September851 mm resp. 79 %

Post-Monsoon: October – November109 mm resp. 10 %

Mean Annual Total: 1.078 mm


- Slide 11

Source: ESRI (2005); D. Schaefer modified


- Slide 12



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- Slide 14

Source: CRU (2003); D. Schaefer modified


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- Slide 19

Onset of Summer Monsoon

Source: IMD (2006); D. Schaefer modified


- Slide 20

Withdrawal of Summer Monsoon

Source: IMD (2006); D. Schaefer modified


- Slide 21

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

0

10

20

30

-10

-20

-30

0

10

20

30

-10

-20

-30

Variability of Onset of Summer Monsoon

Source: Domroes, Schaefer

Mittleres Datum: 1. JuniStd.abw.: 9,2 Tage

8. Mai 1918

22. Juni 1972

Onset in North Kerala


- Slide 22

Inter-annual Variability of All-India Summer Monsoon Precipitation

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

600

700

800

900

1000

1100mm

600

700

800

900

1000

1100mm


Mittelwert 849

Minimum 604

Maxiumum 1020

Std.abw. 841961

1877


- Slide 23

Monsoon as a "resource"

Blessing & benediction versus malediction & curse

Basic rule:

Monsoon precitipitation represents a limited, even insufficient resource for prosperous agricultural landuse.

Hence, supplementary irrigation is required for flourishing landuse.


- Slide 24

Bottle-necks of monsoon precipitation:

• late onset - early withdrawal

• as a result, length of rainy season shortened below the minimum length of the growth period for rainfed crops (> need of supplementary irrigation)

• "failure" of the monsoon (= seriously below-normal monsoon precipitation) leading to drought(s) and famine(s) if no compensation by irrigation

• deficient monsoon precipitation minimizes supply of irrigation water through surface-runoff and underground water aquifer (hence shrinking double-, or even triple-cropping system that is needfully necessary for self-sufficiency in food production, particularly in view of the heavy population load)

• heavy precipitation also negatively affects landuse and crop production (rainstorms > floods, soil erosion and loss of fertile surface soil)


- Slide 25

As a consequence:

Monsoon precipitation must be well-balanced

(= "normal" distribution over time and space) for optimum

crop production in order to satisfy the demand

for quality and quantity productivity


- Slide 26

Trend of All-India Summer Monsoon Precipitation

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

600

700

800

900

1000

1100mm

600

700

800

900

1000

1100mm


Zeitraum Trend T/R MANNs Q Trend %

1976-2004 -51.36 -.66 -1.26 -6.21


- Slide 27

Trends of Annual Temperatures

IPCC (2001)

1901-2000 1910-1945

1946-1975 1976-2000


- Slide 28

Trends of Seasonal Temperatures, 1976-2000

IPCC (2001)

Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May

Jun.-Aug. Sep.-Nov.


- Slide 29

Global Climate Change – Future Scenarios

IPCC, 2001


- Slide 30

Outlook

Impact of warming on human environment & societiesThe most widely discussed topics and scientific concern are on:

- sea level rise and vulnerability of human settlements in coastal/riverine locations, by innundation, coast erosion, groundwater salinization; increasing tidal flats and height/severity of tides

- increasing extreme weather events, such as rainstorms, windstorms, floods and droughts, tornados and tropical cyclones, and hail

- greater health risk by floods, water contamination and altered patterns of vector-bourne infectious deseases

- great and costly extent of climate warming on urban settlement, for example, from overwhelmed urban storm drains and sewers during extreme rainfall events, particularly in low-lying urban areas and affecting most seriously marginal populations

- negative climate change impact on urban construction and infrastructure/transportation by higher costs for disaster rehabilitation


- Slide 31

Outlook

Ultimate question:

Adaptation of human environment and societies by sustainable development?!


- Slide 32

Monsoon and Civilization (Yasuda, Shinde; New Delhi 2004)

- slide 1 daad workshop new delhi "indien", 27. april 2007 the monsoon in india as a...

Documents

daad workshop new delhi

sri lanka slide

north kerala slide

onset of summer monsoon

normal monsoon precipitation

monsoon precitipitation

allindia precipitation

schaefer mittleres datum