© towson university, division of strategic partnerships ... · 10/31/2019 · gdp is being driven...

GDP is Higher Than Ever and Continues to Climb

-$1,000

$4,000

$9,000

$14,000

$19,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Billi

ons o

f Cha

ined

201

2 Do

llars

Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investmentNet exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment

2019Q3: $19.1 trillion, 1.9 percent

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Updated 10/31/2019

GDP is Being Driven Higher by Most Components, But Consumption is King

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

$13,000

$14,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Billi

ons o

f Cha

ined

201

2 D

olla

rs

Personal consumption expenditures


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Updated 10/31/2019 2019 Q3 Consumption = $13.3 trillion, 2.9 % annualized growth

Private Investment is Holding Flat…

$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800$2,000$2,200$2,400$2,600$2,800$3,000$3,200$3,400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Billi

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f Cha

ined

201

2 D

olla

rs

Gross private domestic investment


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Updated 11/4/2019

…But Government Spending is On the Rise

$2,850

$2,900

$2,950

$3,000

$3,050

$3,100

$3,150

$3,200

$3,250

$3,300

$3,350

$3,400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Billi

ons o

f Cha

ined

201

2 Do

llars

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment


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Updated 11/4/2019

Net Exports Represent the Only Downward Pressure on GDP, on a Much Smaller Magnitude Than Other GDP Components

-$1,000

-$900

-$800

-$700

-$600

-$500

-$400

-$300

-$200

-$100

$02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Billi

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201

2 Do

llars

Net exports of goods and services


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Updated 11/4/2019

National Unemployment and Underemployment Remain Low…

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Perc

enta

ge

Unemployment Underemployment© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Updated 11/4/2019

…So Low That Job Openings in the U.S. Outnumber People Looking for Work

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Thou

sand

s of

Per

sons

/Job

s

Unemployed Persons Job Openings© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Presentation Notes

Updated 11/4/2019 Job openings outnumbered unemployed persons starting in March 2018.

…Which Is Pushing Household Income Upwards

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Real

Med

ian

Hous

ehol

d In

com

e in

201

8 Ad

just

ed D

olla

rs

2018: $63,179

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Sources: FRED, U.S. Census Bureau

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Presentation Notes

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N Income has been increasing at a slower pace each year.

The U.S. Is Currently in the Longest-Ever Recovery, but Also the Slowest

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: National Bureau for Economic Research

4.9%

4.2%

3.5%

2.7%

2.2%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1961Q1-1969Q4 1982Q4-1990Q3 1991Q1-2001Q1 2001Q4-2007Q4 2009Q2-present

Mon

ths

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Updated 11/4/2019

Consumer Sentiment Is Volatile, But Relatively High

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cons

umer

Sen

timen

t Ind

ex

Nov. 2008: 55.3

Oct. 2019: 95.5

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: University of Michigan

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/tables.html Updated 11/4/2019

Housing Starts Recently Hit a 12-Year High

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: FRED, U.S. Census Bureau

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Num

ber o

f Hou

sing

Sta

rts,

in th

ousa

nds

Year

12-Year High (August 2019)

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Presentation Notes

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST Updated 10/22/2019 High was in August, dropped slightly in September

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Presentation Notes

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/trump-tax-cuts-did-little-to-boost-economic-growth-in-2018-study-says.html

Tariffs to Cause Likely Slowdown• Due to “higher trade barriers” implemented

since January 2018, the CBO projects that GDP will be reduced by 0.3 percent by 2020.

• Moody’s Analytics estimates that as of September, 300,000 fewer jobs have been created as a result of the trade war.

• This could rise to 450,000 jobs by the end of 2019 and 900,000 jobs by the end of 2020.

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: Congressional Budget Office

Presenter

Presentation Notes

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55576 https://emorywheel.com/26443-2/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-trade-war-squashed-an-estimated-300000-jobs-so-far-moodys-estimates/ https://www.salon.com/2019/09/11/trumps-trade-war-may-kill-900000-by-2020-and-drive-economy-into-recession/

Minimal Benefits from Tax Cuts• The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act had “a

relatively small (if any) first year effect on the economy.”

• Effective corporate tax rates fell “significantly,” while effective individual tax rates fell “by a small amount.”

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: Congressional Research Service

Presenter

Presentation Notes

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/trump-tax-cuts-did-little-to-boost-economic-growth-in-2018-study-says.html https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R45736.html

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

Increasing Deficits

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Sources: FRED, U.S. Office of Management and Budget

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Presentation Notes

Updated 11/4/2019 FY 2019 Deficit = $984,388 Million

Lowering Interest Rates

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19

Effe

ctiv

e Fe

dera

l Fun

ds R

ate

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Sources: FRED, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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Presentation Notes

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS Updated 11/4/2019

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: U.S Census Bureau

Income Inequality Continues to Grow in the United States

0.468

0.470

0.472

0.474

0.476

0.478

0.480

0.482

0.484

0.486

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

U.S

. Gin

i Ind

ex

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Presentation Notes

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=gini&hidePreview=true&table=B19083&tid=ACSDT1Y2018.B19083 Each data point is ACS 1-Year Estimates for that year 2018 figure is the highest level in more than 50 years of tracking income inequality

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: Peter Arcidiacono, Josh Kinsler, and Tyler Ransom

33.6%

5.9%

Legacy Non-LegacyHarvard University Admission Rates, 2014-2019

Exacerbated by Some of Our Most Respected Institutions

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://public.econ.duke.edu/~psarcidi/legacyathlete.pdf� Statistic presented here is on page 14

Students Continue to Graduate with Significant Debt

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Sources: National Center for Education Statistics, Financial Planning Association

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Average Student Loan Debt

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Presentation Notes

https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/FEB19-Trends-in-Student-Loan-Debt.aspx Class of 2019 = $29,900 average student loan debt for bachelor’s degree 68.8 percent of graduates in this class have student loans

Federal Bond Rates Suggest Uncertainty About the Future

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19

3 Mo 10 Yr© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

Presenter

Presentation Notes

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield When the 10-Year interest rate falls below the 3-month interest rate, it indicates a lack of confidence in the future of the economy. Investors are taking a lower interest rate for a longer term because they expect rates to fall. Updated 11/4/2019

U.S. Manufacturing Has Entered Into a Recession…

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: Institute for Supply Management

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19

ISM

Man

ufac

turin

g In

dex

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https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1 https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-manufacturing-pmi-173 Numbers below 50 are considered to be in recession territory Updated 11/4/2019

…Which Has Affected Employment in Trucking

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19

Mon

thly

Cha

nge

in T

ruck

ing

Em

ploy

men

t, Se

ason

ally

Adj

uste

d

Presenter

Presentation Notes

BLS CES4348400001 Updated 11/4/2019

Germany is On the Brink of Recession

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

Qua

rter

ly P

erce

nt C

hang

e in

Rea

l Gro

ss D

omes

tic

Prod

uct o

f Ger

man

y

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Sources: FRED, Eurostat

Presenter

Presentation Notes

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLVMNACSCAB1GQDE Current as of 11/4/2019

European Interest Rates Are at an All-Time Low

-0.60%

-0.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

Euro

pean

Cen

tral

Ban

k De

posi

t Rat

e

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: European Central Bank

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Presentation Notes

Updated 11/5/2019

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https://www.thewordfinder.com/stranger-things-wall/

$290,000

$300,000

$310,000

$320,000

$330,000

$340,000

$350,000

$360,000

$370,000

$380,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mill

ions

of C

hain

ed 2

012

Dolla

rsHere in Maryland, Our Gross State Product is on the Rise


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Current as of 11/5/2019

While Our Job Numbers Fluctuate

2,725

2,730

2,735

2,740

2,745

2,750

2,755

2,760

2,765

2,770

2,775

Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19

Thou

sand

s of

Tota

l Non

farm

Jobs

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: Maryland Department of Labor

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Presentation Notes

Updated 10/22/2019

Household Income is the 2nd Highest in the United States


$74,176

$77,067

$77,151

$79,726

$80,108

$81,346

$85,750

$86,223

$86,345

New Jersey

Utah

Virginia

Washington

Hawaii

New Hampshire

D.C.

Maryland

Massachusetts

2018 Median Household Income

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Presenter

Presentation Notes

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html Median Household Income By State (Table H-8)

But Our Unemployment Rate is Slightly Higher Than the U.S. Average

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

Maryland United States© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Sources: FRED, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Updated 10/22/2019

Income Inequality in Maryland is Among the Highest in the Country

• Maryland has the highest income inequality in the United States, based on 75th percentile income vs 25th percentile income.

• Maryland is ranked 35th in income inequality when based on top 1 percent vs remaining 99 percent.

• This is due to Maryland’s high median income.

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Sources: Economic Policy Institute, MoneyRates, U.S. Census Bureau

Presenter

Presentation Notes

https://www.money-rates.com/research-center/income-inequality.htm https://www.epi.org/publication/the-new-gilded-age-income-inequality-in-the-u-s-by-state-metropolitan-area-and-county/

Government Is A Major Part of Maryland’s Overall Economy…

19.47%

17.65%

9.48% 8.96%

11.49%

Maryland Virginia Delaware Pennsylvania United States© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, RESI

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Since 2010, government spending has declined from approximately 14 percent of US GDP to approximately 11.5 percent. Maryland’s GDP is comprised of approximately 20 percent government spending. Currently at 19.5 percent down from a high of approximately 21 percent, but is consistently much higher than for the US. Maryland is typically the 3rd most government-reliant state in terms of GDP, following New Mexico and Hawaii. DC beats all of them but it probably shouldn’t count.

274447.352.755.3

85.393.69799.6

116140.9

164.9171.3

240257.6

278.1389.9

511.5

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Management of Companies and EnterprisesArts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Real Estate and Rental and LeasingNon-Durable Goods

Durable GoodsWholesale Trade

Finance and InsuranceEducational Services

Transportation and UtilitiesOther Services

Financial ActivitiesMining, Logging, and Construction

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation…Accommodation and Food Services

Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesRetail Trade

Health Care and Social AssistanceGovernment

Number of Jobs in Thousands

…As Well as the Dominant Source of Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

Presenter

Presentation Notes

September 2019 Maryland Employment By Sector http://www.dllr.state.md.us/lmi/ Updated 10/22/2019

Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

120153

5541,411

1,6572,0632,2532,404

3,0233,218

3,4243,426

3,7143,784

5,0145,610

7,2668,064

9,42710,106

14,28920,346

22,267

-2,000 3,000 8,000 13,000 18,000 23,000

Farming, Fishing, and ForestryMilitary

Legal OccupationsConstruction and Extraction

Building & Grounds Cleaning & MaintenancePersonal Care and Service

Protective ServiceLife, Physical, and Social Science

Community and Social ServicesEducation, Training, and Library

Production OccupationsArts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media

Healthcare Support OccupationsInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair

Transportation and Material MovingFood Preparation and Serving

Business and Financial OperationsSales and Related

Architecture and EngineeringOffice and Administrative Support

Management OccupationsHealthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

Number of Job Openings

Computers and Healthcare Lead Current Job Openings in Maryland

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Above job openings are for September 2019 https://mwejobs.maryland.gov/vosnet/analyzer/results.aspx?session=jobocc If hyperlink doesn’t work: MWE->advertised job data->jobs data by occupation->job postings by occupation

Presenter

Presentation Notes

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/trump-tax-cuts-did-little-to-boost-economic-growth-in-2018-study-says.html

Forecasted Private Nonfarm Employment


2,900,000

2,950,000

3,000,000

3,050,000

3,100,000

3,150,000

3,200,000

3,250,000

3,300,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Priv

ate

Non

farm

Em

ploy

men

t

Forecasted Total New Job Openings in Maryland by Region


89,236

67,207

12,634

7,198

8,024

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Figures are annual averages from 2020-2022

Forecasted Total Job Growth in Maryland by Region


4,482

4,260

553

279

288

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Figures are annual averages from 2020-2022

Forecasted Maryland Job Growth by Year


33,281

8

(3,702)

2020 2021 2022

Forecasted Annual Employment Growth by Sector, 2020-2022


-3,591-1,463

-518-465

-289-75

32728096135158177

4891,499

1,7412,006

2,1983,206

3,844

GovernmentManufacturing

Finance and insuranceInformation

Wholesale tradeUtilitiesMining

ConstructionForestry, fishing, and hunting

Management of companies and enterprisesReal estate and rental and leasing

Retail tradeArts, entertainment, and recreation

Transportation and warehousingEducational services; private

Accommodation and food servicesAdministrative, support, waste management, and remediation services

Other services (except public administration)Professional, scientific, and technical services

Health care and social assistance

Forecasted Annual Employment Growth by Occupation Group, 2020-2022


-3,346-698

-186-9

2135

137155194235277

562579

760951

1,0541,084

1,2031,272

1,5411,880

2,163

Office and Administrative SupportProduction

Sales and RelatedFarming, Fishing, and ForestryArchitecture and Engineering

Protective ServiceConstruction and Extraction

Life, Physical, and Social ScienceArts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media

Installation, Maintenance, and RepairLegal

Community and Social ServiceTransportation and Material Moving

Healthcare Practitioners and TechnicalBuilding and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

Healthcare SupportBusiness and Financial Operations

ManagementEducation, Training, and Library

Computer and MathematicalFood Preparation and Serving Related

Personal Care and Service

Forecasted Annual Total Job Growth by Zone, 2020-2022


1,768

1,094 1,200

4,277

1,524

1 2 3 4 5Job Zone

Little or No Preparation Extensive Preparation

[email protected]

Towson.edu/RESI

© towson university, division of strategic partnerships ... · 10/31/2019 · gdp is being driven...

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