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E F S O SE F S O SEUROPEAN FOREST SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDIES

ETUDES DES PERSPECTIVES DU SECTEUR FORESTIER EN EUROPE

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ ПЕРСПЕКТИВ ЛЕСНОГО СЕКТОРА ЕВРОПЫ

Modelling and projections of forest products demand, supply and trade

First draft reportNot for quoting

For discussion during the meeting of outlook specialists and officially nominated National Correspondents, 27– 29 May 2002, Palais des Nations, Geneva

UN-Economic Commission for

Europe

United Nations / Economic Commission for Europe / Trade Division / Timber SectionPalais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland, Fax: +41-22-9170041

http://www.unece.org/trade/timber/efsosSection Chief: Christopher Prins, Phone: +41-22-9172874, Email: [email protected], office 456

Responsible Forestry Officer: Volker Sasse, Phone: +41-22-9171637, Email: [email protected], office 435Technical Assistant: Isabelle Hay, Phone +41-22-9171172, Email: [email protected], office 435-2

Food and Agriculture

Organization

Summary

This report aims to provide the quantitative basis for the further analyses for national specialist. The report presents the draft models for the forest products demand, supply and trade for all the countries in EFSOS framework as well as draft projections up to year 2030 for Russia and Western European countries. The projections for Western Europe are based on base line GDP forecasts while for Russia projections are provided based on both base and low forecasts. In this study the modelling approach was extended compared to ETTS V to cover 18 central and eastern European and CIS countries in addition to 18 western European countries. Forest product demand models were estimated for 36 countries and supply models for 9 countries. The product scope covered eight major categories: coniferous sawnwood, non-coniferous sawnwood, plywood, particleboard and fibreboard among solid wood products, and newsprint, printing and writing paper as well as other paper and board among the subgroups of paper and board products.

A multiple equation framework was applied for those nine European countries, which account for most of the consumption or production in Europe. In this framework consumption was divided into domestic products and imports and production directed into domestic market was separated from exports. Time series cross sectional approach was applied for the rest of the countries.

In general, for all countries and all product groups, estimated elasticities were consistent with theory. The results for countries under multiple equation approach indicated substitution between imports and domestic production. There was also evidence of substitution between export markets and domestic markets in export supply equations. This supports strongly the use of multiple equation approach to address the differences between domestic and export markets. Additionally, results for eastern European countries were promising and encourage to develop the framework further in this context.

Due to decreasing growth rates of GDP, the draft projections indicate slower growth of forest products consumption than in the past in Western Europe. During the projection period, the annual growth rate of paper consumption is assumed to be 2.35%, and for panels and sawnwood 1.83% and 0.94%, respectively. Growth rates are slightly lower compared with the results of ETTS V. The gradually decreasing growth rates are in line with the theory of product life cycle and tend to suggest that forest products are approaching maturity. Growth rates for papers are high compared other product groups, in particular for printing and writing paper (2.69% per year).

The draft results for Russia indicate significantly higher growth rate of consumption for all products except sawnwood, where the growth rate is only slightly higher than is Western Europe. Consumption of wood-based panels is expected to grow fast, 7.7% annually in base scenario and 4.3% in low scenario. Growth rates for paper and board were 5.3 and 2.9, respectively.

The discussion of structural changes in the forest products markets was addressed in the study and was taken into account in the selection of the length of time series in every country and for every product to better reflect the changes in the markets. However, no negative income elasticity was reported and a rough comparison of elasticities with ETTS V results didn’t indicate any clear tendency towards decreasing elasticities when it comes to paper products. Among elasticities compared for paper, 22 out of 46 elasticities were lower than in ETTS V, the rest were roughly the

UN-Economic Commission for

Europe

United Nations / Economic Commission for Europe / Trade Division / Timber SectionPalais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland, Fax: +41-22-9170041

http://www.unece.org/trade/timber/efsosSection Chief: Christopher Prins, Phone: +41-22-9172874, Email: [email protected], office 456

Responsible Forestry Officer: Volker Sasse, Phone: +41-22-9171637, Email: [email protected], office 435Technical Assistant: Isabelle Hay, Phone +41-22-9171172, Email: [email protected], office 435-2

Food and Agriculture

Organization

same or higher. In sawnwood demand models, 17 out of 28 elasticties were lower than in ETTS V, while the corresponding ratio in panels was 20/39. This comparison must be interpreted with care because the differences were not tested and confidence intervals were not considered, but if it is true that income elasticities of consumption of forest products are tending to decline, this has major economic and social implications. This hypothesis should be tested and further discussed.

Table of contents

1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................32. Data..............................................................................................................................................4

2.1 Data for modelling................................................................................................................42.2 Forecasts of macroeconomic indicators...............................................................................5

3. METHODS.......................................................................................................................................73.1 Multiple-equation approach.................................................................................................73.2 Time series cross sectional approach...................................................................................83.3 Projection method.................................................................................................................9

4. SUMMARY RESULTS.................................................................................................................11APPENDIX I. Demand and supply elasticities..................................................................................15APPENDIX II. Draft projection tables...............................................................................................22

1. INTRODUCTION

This draft report presents the results of the econometric analysis of demand and supply of forest products in Europe, as well as baseline projections for the next three decades for Russia and Western European countries. The analytical framework is extended to cover a group of 18 eastern European countries, but otherwise the methodological framework of ETTS V is followed.

The products analysed were the eight major categories of forest products: coniferous sawnwood, non-coniferous sawnwood, plywood, particleboard, fibreboard, newsprint, printing and writing paper and other paper and paperboard. The modelling approaches followed, which are explained later in more detail, were:

I) a multiple equation model of demand (two equations) and supply (one equation), which was estimated for the countries, which are either major producer or consumer of forest products in Europe

II) a time series cross-sectional model for consumption in countries which are net importers. This approach was applied also for eastern European countries because of short time series available.

The country groupings were as follows:

a) Multiple equation approachAustria NorwayFinland SpainFrance Sweden

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Germany United KingdomItaly

b) Cross-sectional demand model for the countries in the following groups:I IIBelgium-Luxembourg GreeceDenmark IrelandNetherlands PortugalSwitzerland Turkey

IIIAlbania Estonia RomaniaBelarus Hungary Russian FederationBosnia Latvia SlovakiaBulgaria Lithuania SloveniaCroatia The fyR of Macedonia UkraineCzech Republic Poland Yugoslavia

2. Data

2.1 Data for modelling

The main source for quantity data was ECE/FAO Timber Statistical database (TSD). Quantity data consist of production, imports and exports of commodities as well as value of imports and exports. Import and export unit values were calculated based on this information. They were further converted to domestic currencies and deflated. For countries under time series cross-section approach they were also converted to indices to avoid size effects in modelling.

In individual country approach (multiple equation framework) domestic prices were used in demand models when available. If domestic price series were not available, export unit prices were used as a proxy when appropriate.

Historical macroeconomic data was collected mainly from UNECE and OECD databases. They include GDP, deflators (such as PPI, CPI and the GDP deflator). For countries under multiple equation approach also Index of Total Manufacturing Production, Index of Manufacturing in the Construction Industry and Index of Manufacturing Production in the Furniture Industry are required as parts of the End-Use Index (ENDI) for solid wood products. A composite index of end use activity was constructed for use as an explanatory variable in the demand equations for mechanical wood products (sawnwood and wood-based panels).

For each country and product, the end-use index was defined as

ENDIk = wik Ci

i

where ENDIk is the end use indicator for product k, C i are the component indices, and wik are the end-use sector weights. The sector weights vary by product and country, and indicate the relative importance of each of the major sectors (construction, packaging, and furniture manufacturing) in consumption of the product group.

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The composite indices included the value of residential construction (deflated), the index of industrial production for manufacturing industries (to represent activities in packaging), and the index of industrial production for furniture manufacture. The use of a weighted index has the advantage of allowing for the introduction of information specific to the end use sectors, while overcoming problems of multicollinearity.

2.2 Forecasts of macroeconomic indicators

GDP growth ratesLong-term forecasts for GDP were ordered from NOBE, a Poland based Independent Centre for Economic Studies (Forecasts of the economic…2002). The GDP growth scenarios for OECD countries are presented in figure 1 (Source: NOBE). For Western European countries the base scenarios were used, which are based on the most likely assumptions about the economic growth. For Russia both base and low scenarios were used to provide material for comparisons, as base line projection leads to relatively high growth rates of consumption and production.

Table 1. The annual GDP growth rates for Russia (Source: NOBE)

2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030Base scenario 4.8 4.1 3.4Low scenario 2.8 2.1 2.0

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GDP growth rate in the OECD countries 2000-40 (projections)

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxemburg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

UK

Iceland

Norway

Switzerland

Australia

Canada

Japan

USA

LowBaseHigh

Source: Model computations

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Forecasts of the end use index

Forecasts for the end use index (used for solid wood products) were based on a model that links the components of the end use index to GDP. The model is

where Ci are the components of the end use index, GDP is gross domestic product (deflated), and α and βik are estimated parameters. The coefficients of the lag structure were estimated using a 5 year lag length and a second-degree polynomial form (Almon lag model, Greene 1993).

3. METHODS

3.1 Multiple-equation approach

Two different modelling approaches were followed according to the characteristics of the country in question. Fully specified demand, supply and trade models were estimated for the countries, which account for most of the consumption and production in Europe. One of the major advantages of this approach is that it allows us to examine substitutions. The most obvious type of substitution takes place between alternative sources of supply in demand side, and between directing the production to alternative markets. In this framework consumption can be determined by domestic market prices as well as import prices. Total production is determined by prices in the domestic and export markets.

That is,CONSUMPTION = fn (Pd, Pm, X); and (1)PRODUCTION = fn (Pd, Px, Z), (2)

Where Pd is the price of domestically produced goods, Pm is the import price, Px is the export price, X is a vector of additional factors that determine demand (demand shifters), and Z is the factor of additional factors that determine supply (supply shifters).

Equations (1) and (2) were further expanded to reflect the components of consumption and production. The following set of equations was defined:

QDD = f(Pd, Pm, DD); (3)

QM = f(Pd, Pm, DM); (4)QD

S = f(Pd, Px, SD); and (5)QX = f(Pd, Px, SX), (6)

where QDD is demand for domestically-produced products, QM is import demand, QD

S is production (supply) for domestic markets (QD

S = QDD), QX is production for export markets, Pd is the price in

domestic markets, Pm is import price, Px is export price, DD are demand shifters for the domestic market, DM are demand shifters for import demand, SD are supply shifters for the domestic market, and SX are supply shifters for the export market.

In equation (3) domestic price is expected to have a negative sign and the sign of import price can be either positive or negative, indicating either substitution or that imports are a complement for domestic products, respectively. Similarly, in equation (4) import price should have a negative sign

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and domestic price may have either a positive or negative sign. The equations (5) and (6) indicate that export markets and domestic markets are alternative destinations for production. Here a negative cross-price elasticity indicates substitution and the expected sign for export price is positive.

Due to data availability, the costs used in supply equations are raw material costs, log prices, chip prices and pulp prices. The activity of export markets was described with population-weighted index of real GDP in France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom.

The model approach was a variant of the model structure presented by Goldstein and Khan (1985) and provides more information about differences between elasticities among countries. This is a clear advantage compared to time series cross section approach provided that sufficiently long time series are available. Furthermore, the multiple equation approach ((3)-(6)) offers a number of theoretical and practical advantages for modelling demand and supply:- factors important in domestic markets can be separated from factors important in external

markets- an important aspect of (potential) substitution behaviour (i.e. between sources of supply) can be

directly examined- the system is over-identified and can be directly used for projection purposes giving all

components of consumption, production and both components of trade. Simultaneous estimation methods can be applied.

Some modifications were made to the multiple-equation framework due to negligible or highly unstable quantities. The practical outcome of this is that in some countries succesful models are unlikely and one or more equations cannot be estimated. For example, Sweden, Finland, and Norway import negligible quantities of coniferous and non-coniferous sawnwood. The simplest alternative method is the use of ‘calculation’, which means that if we know the projection of domestic demand and imports then we also have the projection of apparent consumption as the sum of the two. In cases of negligible or substantially varying time series projections were obtained by using ‘fixed constant’ or ‘fixed trend’. When a trend was visible the trend model was linear. Using a fixed constant meant taking an average over the last five years.

As mentioned, the four equations represent an over-identified system for projection purposes: along with import demand and export supply (if both trade flows occur), only one equation must be estimated for the domestic market to fully-define production and consumption. In developing projections of demand and supply for countries in Group I more than 100 demand equations were estimated, and nearly 40 export supply equations.1 For most countries and products the domestic market quantity was estimated as a demand equation (Equation 3) for projection purposes. Data for demand prices and demand shifters were generally better than the corresponding data necessary to estimate and project supply equations.

3.2 Time series cross sectional approach

The model of demand for forest products is generally formulated by Houthakker (1965) and has been widely used to estimate demand elasticities for commodities. Total (apparent) consumption is explained using price and GDP. For each of the eight product groups, the relationship modelled is:

1 The maximum number of demand equations is 2 equations x 9 countries x 8 products = 144; the maximum number of export supply equations is 9 countries x 8 products = 72.

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QT= fn (Pm, GDP, QT-1) (7)

where QT is apparent consumption, Pm is real import price (unit value), GDP is gross domestic product, and QT

-1 is consumption in the previous period.

The estimation procedure followed a time series cross section (TSXS) approach. The methodology is given in Buongiorno (1977, 1978) and Baudin and Lundberg (1987).

Because the countries in Group II and III are small producers and net importers, the unit value of imports is used as the single price term, and a single price was assumed to adequately reflect market prices. Import unit values were converted to domestic currencies, deflated, and then converted to an index in order to avoid size effects of the data in the TSXS model (7). Real GDP (in domestic currency), and the consumption quantity for each country were also converted to indices to adjust for scale differences in currencies and levels of consumption. Countries were grouped by per capita income, as follows:

I IIBelgium-Luxembourg GreeceDenmark IrelandNetherlands PortugalSwitzerland Turkey

III IVCzech Republic Albania EstoniaHungary Belarus HungaryPoland Bosnia LatviaRussian Federation Bulgaria LithuaniaUkraine Croatia The fyR of Macedonia

Czech Republic SlovakiaSloveniaYugoslavia

The Group IV involves all the eastern European countries considered. This data set was used to estimate the elasticities for those countries which are not included in Group III. This was done, because many of the countries in Group IV are relatively small consumers and time-series were highly unstable and didn’t yield reasonable results.

3.3 Projection method

For a given (‘major’) country and product an estimated (domestic or import) demand model is given as

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where yt is domestic consumption (or import) in time period tlog denotes natural logarithmsxt is the end-use index (solid wood products) or real GDP (paper) time period tpt is real product priceyt-1 is consumption lagged one periodt is a time index; t=1 for 1964, t=2 for 1965 etc anda, b, c, d and g are estimated elasticities.

Prices, cost and GDP are given in local currencies. The long-term elasticity for GDP is as follows:

The projection method is outlined as follows:

1. With data to year 2000 a base-year value for y is given as a five-year average:

The reason for using this average as a starting value is that the objective is to give long-term projections. This means that initial values for projections should not reflect short-term fluctuations (such as business cycles). A five-year average is expected to cancel out the major effects of the business cycle and is also expected to be ‘on the trend line’.

2. The annual growth rate of consumption from 1990 to 1995 is defined as

where x00-05 and p00-05 denote corresponding annual rates of growth for the end-use indicator or GDP and price, respectively. If the model is static, i.e. d = 0, b* and c* are replaced by b and c, respectively. If, furthermore, price is expected to remain constant over the projection period, which is the case in the base scenario, the factor e* p00-05 will be cancelled.

3. The projection for 2005 is then

4. Projections for year 2010 are obtained as above with the 2005 projection as the starting point. The procedure after year 2010 is obvious.

5. Projections are given for years 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2030. Values for intermediate years are given by linear interpolation.

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6. Projections of imports demand and exports supply follow the same methodology as above.

7. By adding import demand and domestic demand (for a given product and country) apparent consumption is obtained and by adding domestic demand and export supply total production is given.

8. The method given here also applies to the time series cross section demand model.

9. For countries under time series cross sectional approach only demand models have been estimated. It is then assumed that production is a constant share of consumption (self.-sufficiency ratio) and that imports is a constant share of consumption. Export is calculated from these quantities.

4. SUMMARY RESULTS

The estimated elasticities are presented in Appendix I. The results are consistent with economic theory. Supply and demand equations yield expected signs for the income and price coefficients. In general, this means that demand for forest products will increase along with increasing income. Raising domestic prices tend to decrease demand for domestically produced products but increase imports. Increasing import prices, on the other hand, tends to generally increase demand for domestic products and reduce imports. In supply side increasing domestic price decrease imports while increasing export price has a positive impact on exports. Increasing raw material costs tend to decrease production. In general, the results support the hypothesis of substitution between imports and domestic production in consumption. There is also evidence of substitution between domestic and export markets.

The magnitude and size of income elasticities form an interesting question themselves in the light of the recent discussion concerning structural changes in forest products markets. Hetemäki and Oberstainer (2001) reported a negative income elasticity for newsprint consumption in the United States since 1987, which is a clear indication of structural change that has taken place in news consumption patterns. These possible structural changes in the markets were taken into account in this study also, the historical developments were carefully considered and time series were cut to better reflect the markets during the recent decade or two when necessary. No negative income elasticity was reported and based on a very rough comparison between ETTS V results (Brooks et al. 1995), there is no clear tendency towards lower income elasticities when it comes to paper products. Among the models for paper demand, 22 out of 46 elasticities were lower than in the previous study, the rest were the roughly the same or higher. For coniferous and non-coniferous sawn wood 17 out of 28 elasticties were lower than in ETTS V, while the corresponding ratio in panels was 20/39. However, this comparison should be interpreted with care, because they are not based on statistical test and time periods used in the models do vary.

Due to decreasing growth rates of GDP, the growth of consumption of forest products tend to slow down over time (Table 2). The annual growth rates for the whole projection period are lower than those reported in ETTS V (Baudin & Brooks 1995). The theory of product life-cycle suggests decreasing growth rates for consumption over time are, and in that context sawnwood may be closest to maturity among forest products, while all of them are approaching maturity. Growth rates

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for paper and paperboard are highest. Among papers, consumption of printing and writing paper is growing the fastest, while the categories studied well exceed the annul growth of 2 %.

Table 2. Average annual growth rates of consumption in Western EuropeProduct 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2000-2030Sawnwood 1.07 0.97 0.79 0.94Wood-based panels 2.15 1.84 1.84 1.83Paper and paperboard 2.73 2.39 2.39 2.35

The draft results for Russia show a fast growth in consumption of wood-based panels (Table 3). In base scenario the growth rate of sawnwood consumption is not much higher compared to Western Europe, but for panels and paper the growth is significantly higher in Russia.

Table 3. Average annual growth rates of consumption in Russia.Base scenario Low scenario

Sawnwood 1.18 0.66Wood-based panels 7.71 4.29Paper and paperboard 5.32 2.93

The developments of consumption as well as projections under base scenario in Western Europe are presented in graphs 1-3, for three major product categories. More detailed projection tables for western European countries, including summary table for the whole region, and Russia are presented in Appendix 2.

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Figure 1. Sawnwood consumption in West Europe. Observations 1964-2000 and projections to year 2030 (1000 cubic metres).

Figure 2. Consumption of wood-based panels in West Europe. Observations 1964-2000 and projections to year 2030 (1000 cubic metres).

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Figure 3. Consumption of paper and paperboard in West Europe. Observations 1964-2000 and projections to year 2030 (1000 metric tonnes).

LiteratureBaudin, A.; Lundberg, L. 1987. A world model of the demand for paper and paperboard. Forest Science. 33(1):185-196.

Baudin, A. and Brooks, D. 1995. Projections of forest products demand, supply and trade in ETTS V. UN-ECE/FAO Timber and Forest Discussion Papers, ETTS V Working Paper, ECE/TIM/DP/6. 41 p.

Brooks, D., Baudin, A. and Schwarzbauer, P. 1995.Modeling forest products demand, supply and trade. UN-ECE/FAO Timber and Forest Discussion Papers, ETTS V Working Paper, ECE/TIM/DP/5. 39 p.

Buongiorno, J. 1977. Long-term forecasting of major forest products consumption in developed and developing economies. Forest Science. 23(1):13-25.

Buongiorno, J. 1978. Income and price elasticities in the world demand for paper and paperboard. Forest Science. 24(2):231-246.

Forecasts of the economic growth in OECD countries and Central and Eastern European countries for the period 2000-2040. A study prepared for the European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS). 2002. NOBE Independent Centre for Economic Studies, Poland. 53 p.

Goldstein, M.; Khan, M.S. 1985: Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade. In Handbook of International Economics, vol II, Jones, R.W. and Kenen, P.B., editors. North-Holland, Amsterdam

Hetemäki, L. and Obersteiner, M. 2001. US newsprint demand forecast to 2020. IInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Interim Report IR-01-070. Laxenburg, Austria.47 p

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APPENDIX I. Demand and supply elasticities.Significance of estimated elasticities is denoted as follows: * = 0.10, ** = 0.05, *** = 0.01 (no asterisk means is not significant on 10% risk level)

Demand elasticities for coniferous sawn woodDomestic demand Import demand

Domestic price

Import price End-use index Domestic price

Import price End-use index

Austria -0.119 ***0.565 0.482 ***-0.856 ***1.579FinlandFrance -0.542 0.344 0.546 -0.356 0.200Germany 0.061 0.329 **-0.403 ***1.137Italy ***0.605 ***0.283 **-0.421 0.591Norway *0.186 ***0.392 -2.009 1.323Spain 0.136 ***0.994 **-0.609 **0.302Sweden *-0.554 *0.843United Kingdom ***-1.040 **0.728 0.194 -0.291 **0.535

Demand elasticities for non-coniferous sawn woodDomestic demand Import demand

Domestic price



Austria 0.299 0.470 0.078 -0.052 *1.172FinlandFrance -0.267 0.454 **0.570 *-0.412 ***1.571Germany ***-0.878 0.107 ***1.620Italy -0.302 *0.832 ***-0.250 1.404Norway 0.333 **1.266Spain 0.108 ***0.697 ***-0.507 **1.895SwedenUnited Kingdom

Demand elasticities for plywoodDomestic demand Import demand

Domestic price



AustriaFinlandFrance 0.649 0.323 -0.735 1.088Germany ***-1.228 **0.471 ***1.078 ***0.880 ***-0.577 ***1.349Italy -0.271 *0.884 *0.694 1.688 -2.522 3.472NorwaySpain 0.137 ***0.988SwedenUnited Kingdom

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Demand elasticities for particleboardDomestic demand Import demand

Domestic price



Austria -0.107 0.641 **0.651 ***3.023Finland -0.294 *0.558France **-0.346 **0.393 ***1.122 ***0.804 -0.174 **0.906Germany ***-0.733 ***1.169 **0.548 -0.335 **0.729Italy -0.299 0.697 -0.806 1.192Norway 0.790 **-0.252 ***0.716Spain ***0.244 ***1.248 -0.371 **2.425Sweden -0.625 0.512 0.108 **-1.061 **1.470United Kingdom 0.179 ***-0.656 *0.392

Demand elasticties for fibreboardDomestic demand Import demand

Domestic price



Austria -0.322 0.295 0.961Finland ***2.913 -0.362France *1.446 **-1.507 0.137Germany -0.642 **1.743 ***-0.599 ***0.993Italy 0.340 ***-2.322 ***2.218 -0.792 *1.624Norway -0.206 1.107Spain ***0.534 ***0.538Sweden -0.591 ***2.225 0.337 -1.189 0.412United Kingdom 0.013 1.030 **-0.288 *0.720

Demand elasticities for newsprintDomestic demand Import demand

Domestic price

Import price Income Domestic price

Import price Income

Austria -0.282 0.315 0.304 -1.217 4.452Finland -0.163 ***1.062France **-0.306 ***0.753 0.240 -0.503 1.809Germany ***-0.364 ***1.960 0.110 *-0.372 0.925Italy -0.416 1.006Norway **-0.637 ***0.904Spain 0.137 ***0.988 ***0.302 **-0.609Sweden ***-0.677 ***0.656United Kingdom -1.020 0.255 -0.076 0.664

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Demand elasticties for printing and writing paperDomestic demand Import demand

Domestic price


Import price Income

Austria ***0.244 -0.115 ***4.777Finland ***-1.889 ***1.405France -0.242 0.176 **0.528 -0.070 ***2.605Germany *0.297 **1.149 -0.323 2.938Italy ***-0.341 ***0.236 ***0.849 **1.352 ***-1.862 **3.268Norway 0.369 -1.725 1.301SpainSweden -0.240 0.248United Kingdom -0.101 0.058 *1.305 0.915 -0.059 0.915

Demand elasticties for other paper and boardDomestic demand Import demand

Domestic price


Import price income

Austria 0.615 ***0.366 -0.282 ***2.652Finland -0.0253 0.417France -0.082 **0.664 0.028 ***1.755Germany **-0.246 0.561 *-0.349 ***1.228Italy -0.501 0.056 0.527 0.539 **-1.349 ***1.703Norway 0.360 -0.181 ***1.733Spain 0.137 ***0.988Sweden -0.113 0.215 ***0.449United Kingdom -0.091 0.041 ***1.860 ***0.863

Export supply elasticties for coniferous sawnwoodDomestic price Export price Cost EurGDP Exch. rate

Austria -0.005 0.073 0.746Finland 1.652 ***-2.147 0.907 **0.419France **-0.909 ***1.641Germany ***-1.726 ***2.835ItalyNorway 0.943 *-1.018 1.593SpainSweden *0.687United Kingdom

Export supply elasticities for non-coniferous sawnwoodDomestic price Export price Cost EurGDP Exch. rate

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Austria -0.213 0.586FinlandFrance ***-1.744 ***1.433 -0.085 ***2.714Germany **-1.159 **0.733 ***1.606ItalyNorwaySpainSwedenUnited Kingdom

Export supply elasticties for plywoodDomestic price Export price Cost EurGDP Exch. rate

AustriaFinland ***0.869 **-0.346 0.194France 0.949Germany -0.135 1.736ItalyNorwaySpainSwedenUnited Kingdom

Export supply elasticities for particleboardDomestic price Export price Cost EurGDP Exch. rate

Austria -0.100 0.113 ***2.063Finland 1.160 -0.078 0.758France **-1.561 ***3.433Germany *0.782 **-0.109 ***1.981ItalyNorwaySpainSwedenUnited Kingdom

Export supply elasticities for fibreboardDomestic price Export price Cost EurGDP Exch. rate

Austria 0.429 1.753FinlandFrance ***-1.122 ***2.853Germany -0.577 1.786ItalyNorwaySpainSwedenUnited Kingdom

Export supply elasticities for newsprintDomestic price Export price Cost EurGDP Exch. rate

17

Austria 1.295 4.467Finland 1.517 -1.506 0.417 0.688FranceGermany *-0.293 ***2.231ItalyNorway 1.517 -1.506 0.417 0.688SpainSweden 1.517 -1.506 0.417 0.688United Kingdom

Export supply elasticities for printing and writing paperDomestic price Export price Cost EurGDP Exch. rate

Austria **-0.2980 ***2.623Finland ***-1.057 ***2.048FranceGermany -0.252 2.150Italy 0.127 ***2.303Norway ***-1.057 ***2.048SpainSweden ***-1.057 ***2.048United Kingdom

Export supply elasticities for other paper and boardDomestic price Export price Cost EurGDP Exch. rate

Austria -0.110 0.117 ***2.409Finland ***0.156 **-0.352 ***0.795 0.066France 0.049 **-0.183 ***3.189Germany -0.252 ***2.150Italy **0.571 ***5.484Norway ***0.156 **-0.352 ***0.795 0.066SpainSweden ***0.156 **-0.352 ***0.795 0.066United Kingdom

Time series cross-sectional model for Groups I and II (Western European countries, country listing in page 9)

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Country group

Group I Group II

Product Price Income Price Income

Coniferous sawn wood **-0.440 0.185 **-0.392 0.042

Non-coniferous sawn wood -0.241 **0.442 ***-0.407 ***0.711

Plywood ***-0.533 ***0.915 -0.198 0.394

Particleboard -0.149 ***1.089 -0.066 0.518

Fibreboard ***-0.970 1.223 *-0.388 ***1.765

Newsprint ***-0.378 ***0.688 -0.176 ***0.839

Printing & writing paper ***-0.253 ***1.352 ***-0.347 ***1.691

Other paper & board -0.160 ***1.023 *-0.334 ***1.148

Time series cross-sectional models for Groups III and IV (Eastern European countries, country listing in page 9).

19

Country group

Group III Group IV

Product Price Income Price Income

Coniferous sawn wood -0.427 0.245 -0.062 **2.247

Non-coniferous sawn wood -0.042 0.438 **-0.263 0.304

Plywood -0.081 **2.402 -0.088 *1.771

Particleboard -0.037 ***2.146 *-0.066 ***1.252

Fibreboard -0.251 **2.381 ***-0.245 **0.428

Newsprint ***-0.561 **1.851 -0.034 0.351

Printing & writing paper -0.316 1.860 -0.120 1.571

Other paper & board -0.074 **1.140 *-0.102 0.524

APPENDIX II. Draft projection tables.

20

Summary table

Country: Austria GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv.: Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.80 2.80 2.40 2.40 1.80

Consumption

Coniferous sawn wood 4,859.0 5,495.9 6,243.5 6,992.7 7,860.5 9,443.6 Nonconif. sawn wood 291.2 335.7 388.0 440.0 499.9 607.3 Total sawn wood 5,150.2 5,831.6 6,631.5 7,432.7 8,360.4 10,050.8

Plywood 129.8 136.3 143.1 150.4 157.9 174.3 Particleboard 700.8 871.0 1,038.9 1,181.7 1,323.0 1,526.2 Fiberboard 224.4 252.8 285.3 317.0 352.7 414.9 Woodbased panels 1,055.0 1,260.1 1,467.4 1,649.1 1,833.6 2,115.4

Newsprint 284.7 297.5 310.8 322.8 335.1 354.6 Printing & writing 576.9 644.5 719.9 791.8 870.7 1,004.6 Other paper & board 1,174.3 1,278.9 1,392.9 1,498.8 1,612.7 1,824.5 Paper & board 2,035.9 2,220.9 2,423.7 2,613.3 2,818.6 3,183.7

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production


Plywood 189.0 198.6 208.6 219.2 230.3 254.2 Particleboard 1,688.0 2,065.5 2,537.8 3,037.5 3,644.9 4,909.5 Fiberboard 285.6 339.6 405.3 473.1 553.5 715.8 Woodbased panels 2,162.7 2,603.7 3,151.7 3,729.8 4,428.7 5,879.4

Newsprint 382.4 449.7 516.8 564.4 612.6 1,235.8 Printing & writing 2,126.6 2,867.6 3,611.1 4,153.5 4,685.0 5,423.3 Other paper & board 1,633.0 1,985.0 2,331.4 2,633.8 2,922.2 3,527.0 Paper & board 4,142.0 5,302.4 6,459.3 7,351.7 8,219.9 10,186.1

Summary table

21

Country:Belgium and Luxemburg GDP growth: Base Prices: Constant

Projection summary05/14/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.20 2.20 1.90 1.90 1.40

Consumption


Plywood 366.5 404.8 447.0 487.1 530.8 602.6 Particleboard 942.7 1,061.2 1,194.6 1,323.5 1,466.2 1,705.8 Fiberboard 391.6 447.2 510.7 572.9 642.6 761.4 Woodbased panels 1,700.9 1,913.3 2,152.4 2,383.4 2,639.6 3,069.8

Newsprint 270.1 291.2 313.9 335.0 357.5 393.5 Printing & writing 961.7 1,113.4 1,289.1 1,463.4 1,661.2 2,003.7 Other paper & board 1,456.3 1,625.9 1,815.2 1,996.7 2,196.4 2,528.4 Paper & board 2,688.0 3,030.5 3,418.3 3,795.1 4,215.0 4,925.6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production

Coniferous sawn wood 958.8 978.5 998.6 1,016.3 1,034.3 1,061.4 Nonconif. sawn wood 220.1 231.0 242.5 252.8 263.6 280.4 Total sawn wood 1,178.9 1,209.5 1,241.1 1,269.1 1,297.9 1,341.8


Newsprint 115.8 124.8 134.6 143.6 153.3 168.7 Printing & writing 925.9 1,072.0 1,241.2 1,408.9 1,599.4 1,929.2 Other paper & board 640.8 715.4 798.7 878.6 966.4 1,112.5 Paper & board 1,682.5 1,912.3 2,174.5 2,431.2 2,719.1 3,210.4

Summary table

22

Country: Denmark GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary05/14/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.10 1.70

Consumption


Plywood 236.4 263.4 293.5 327.0 359.6 426.9 Particleboard 711.0 808.9 920.3 1,047.1 1,172.4 1,438.9 Fiberboard 220.4 254.7 294.3 340.1 386.1 485.8 Woodbased panels 1,167.8 1,327.0 1,508.1 1,714.2 1,918.1 2,351.6

Newsprint 271.8 295.0 320.2 347.6 373.4 425.3 Printing & writing 391.2 458.9 538.3 631.5 726.4 936.0 Other paper & board 647.9 730.6 823.8 928.9 1,031.9 1,248.5 Paper & board 1,310.9 1,484.5 1,682.3 1,907.9 2,131.7 2,609.8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production

Coniferous sawn wood 230.6 235.8 241.1 246.5 251.3 260.3 Nonconif. sawn wood 45.4 47.9 50.5 53.2 55.7 60.6 Total sawn wood 276.0 283.6 291.5 299.6 307.0 320.8

Plywood 16.4 18.3 20.4 22.7 24.9 29.6 Particleboard 289.2 329.0 374.3 425.9 476.9 585.3 Fiberboard 98.2 113.5 131.1 151.5 172.0 216.4 Woodbased panels 403.8 460.8 525.8 600.1 673.9 831.3

Newsprint 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Printing & writing 110.0 129.0 151.4 177.6 204.2 263.2 Other paper & board 291.4 328.6 370.5 417.8 464.1 561.5 Paper & board 401.4 457.6 521.9 595.3 668.4 824.7

Summary table

23

Country: Finland GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv.: Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 3.00 3.00 2.60 2.60 2.00

Consumption



Newsprint 306.9 359.0 420.0 481.2 551.4 680.4 Printing & writing 959.3 1,178.4 1,447.6 1,730.9 2,069.7 2,728.0 Other paper & board 956.7 1,018.0 1,083.3 1,143.3 1,206.7 1,311.2 Paper & board 2,222.9 2,555.4 2,950.8 3,355.5 3,827.8 4,719.6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production


Plywood 975.2 1,038.2 1,105.4 1,167.6 1,233.3 1,350.9 Particleboard 486.8 516.3 547.6 577.8 609.8 668.6 Fiberboard 145.2 152.6 160.4 168.6 177.2 195.7 Woodbased panels 1,607.2 1,707.1 1,813.4 1,914.0 2,020.3 2,215.2

Newsprint 1,432.8 1,498.7 1,572.7 1,644.2 1,723.8 1,866.3 Printing & writing 7,834.4 8,522.0 9,290.5 10,027.2 10,844.3 12,329.0 Other paper & board 3,484.6 3,802.2 4,149.4 4,473.2 4,822.7 5,441.3 Paper & board 12,751.8 13,822.9 15,012.6 16,144.5 17,390.8 19,636.6

Summary table

24

Country: France GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv.: Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.60 2.60 2.30 2.30 1.90

Consumption

Coniferous sawn wood 9,021.1 9,208.5 9,400.2 9,573.6 9,750.4 9,971.2 Nonconif. sawn wood 3,108.1 3,241.4 3,383.0 3,515.9 3,656.4 3,885.8 Total sawn wood 12,129.2 12,449.9 12,783.2 13,089.5 13,406.8 13,856.9


Newsprint 837.4 1,003.4 1,207.2 1,426.8 1,691.3 2,130.6 Printing & writing 4,334.3 5,537.2 6,478.4 7,278.9 8,187.1 9,787.9 Other paper & board 5,536.0 6,384.5 7,397.3 8,461.9 9,715.7 12,315.5 Paper & board 10,707.8 12,925.2 15,082.9 17,167.5 19,594.1 24,234.1

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production


Plywood 544.5 549.5 554.6 559.2 563.9 570.0 Particleboard 3,517.6 4,249.6 4,733.6 5,134.9 5,578.6 6,189.2 Fiberboard 780.4 1,004.5 1,315.7 1,678.6 2,160.0 3,292.3 Woodbased panels 4,842.6 5,803.6 6,604.0 7,372.7 8,302.5 10,051.5

Newsprint 950.5 1,048.7 1,157.0 1,271.8 1,398.1 1,672.7 Printing & writing 3,108.3 3,381.3 3,679.2 3,989.9 4,328.4 5,064.6 Other paper & board 5,152.6 6,085.0 6,913.2 7,626.4 8,337.1 9,495.1 Paper & board 9,211.4 10,515.0 11,749.4 12,888.1 14,063.6 16,232.4

Summary table

25

Country: Germany GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv.: Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.20 2.20 1.90 1.90 1.50

Consumption


Plywood 1,312.0 1,505.8 1,728.1 1,946.9 2,193.3 2,648.7 Particleboard 9,323.4 10,331.1 11,450.3 12,517.9 13,687.2 15,769.4 Fiberboard 1,729.0 2,016.9 2,355.8 2,697.5 3,091.7 3,844.1 Woodbased panels 12,364.4 13,853.7 15,534.2 17,162.3 18,972.2 22,262.2


2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production


Plywood 421.4 495.7 583.7 672.6 775.6 976.0 Particleboard 9,366.2 10,476.1 11,717.9 12,949.6 14,312.6 16,945.5 Fiberboard 2,051.8 2,395.7 2,799.3 3,227.3 3,721.6 4,763.4 Woodbased panels 11,839.4 13,367.4 15,100.9 16,849.5 18,809.9 22,684.9


Summary table

26

Country: Greece GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary05/14/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.50 2.50 2.20 2.20 1.80

Consumption




2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production




Summary table

27

Country: Ireland GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary05/14/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 3.20 3.20 2.90 2.90 2.40

Consumption




2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production




Summary table

28

Country: Italy GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv.: Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.30 2.30 1.70 1.70 1.30

Consumption


Plywood 648.8 839.2 1,109.6 1,233.1 1,347.4 1,502.2 Particleboard 3,168.6 3,596.5 4,085.9 4,494.2 4,946.1 5,735.2 Fiberboard 969.0 1,156.5 1,381.3 1,576.9 1,800.9 2,209.8 Woodbased panels 4,786.4 5,592.2 6,576.8 7,304.2 8,094.3 9,447.2

Newsprint 629.1 684.2 746.0 796.6 851.8 945.9 Printing & writing 3,128.4 3,873.3 4,880.3 5,863.9 7,113.4 9,744.9 Other paper & board 6,039.7 6,708.3 7,480.7 8,132.2 8,861.1 10,154.4 Paper & board 9,797.3 11,265.8 13,107.0 14,792.7 16,826.2 20,845.2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production

Coniferous sawn wood 743.6 761.4 779.6 793.4 807.4 829.4 Nonconif. sawn wood 900.6 976.1 1,059.6 1,125.9 1,197.3 1,315.8 Total sawn wood 1,644.2 1,737.4 1,839.2 1,919.3 2,004.7 2,145.2

Plywood 427.2 451.4 477.7 498.5 520.5 556.9 Particleboard 2,835.0 3,148.3 3,499.1 3,785.8 4,097.6 4,628.8 Fiberboard 1,095.0 1,219.8 1,362.6 1,489.3 1,629.3 1,889.3 Woodbased panels 4,357.2 4,819.6 5,339.3 5,773.6 6,247.4 7,075.1


Summary table

29

Country: Netherlands GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary05/14/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.70 2.70 2.20 2.20 1.70

Consumption


Plywood 490.1 553.7 625.6 691.2 763.7 891.2 Particleboard 634.8 733.8 848.2 954.8 1,074.9 1,291.3 Fiberboard 377.8 444.4 522.8 597.0 681.7 837.4 Woodbased panels 1,502.7 1,731.9 1,996.6 2,243.0 2,520.3 3,020.0


2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production




Summary table

30

Country: Norway GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv. Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.54 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00

Consumption



Newsprint 195.2 217.9 248.2 282.6 308.3 367.0 Printing & writing 371.9 389.6 411.7 435.0 451.2 485.7 Other paper & board 320.1 436.4 541.5 671.8 775.3 1,036.0 Paper & board 887.1 1,044.0 1,201.3 1,389.4 1,534.9 1,888.7

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production



Newsprint 954.5 833.0 870.7 909.7 942.2 1,008.2 Printing & writing 816.1 868.7 926.4 980.6 1,033.9 1,129.4 Other paper & board 553.3 624.9 699.0 774.7 849.2 1,000.7 Paper & board 2,323.9 2,326.6 2,496.1 2,665.0 2,825.3 3,138.2

Summary table

31

Country: Portugal GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary05/14/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.80 2.80 2.60 2.60 2.30

Consumption

Coniferous sawn wood 813.3 834.6 856.4 877.2 898.6 937.6 Nonconif. sawn wood 580.4 617.2 656.3 694.9 735.8 814.1 Total sawn wood 1,393.7 1,451.8 1,512.8 1,572.2 1,634.4 1,751.7

Plywood 35.8 40.6 46.0 51.8 58.2 71.6 Particleboard 408.2 474.4 551.2 633.8 728.8 933.4 Fiberboard 118.8 140.6 166.3 194.5 227.4 300.1 Woodbased panels 562.8 655.5 763.6 880.1 1,014.5 1,305.2

Newsprint 87.4 96.1 105.7 115.6 126.3 147.8 Printing & writing 386.2 465.0 559.9 665.4 790.9 1,074.2 Other paper & board 635.5 730.9 840.5 957.2 1,090.0 1,372.2 Paper & board 1,109.0 1,292.0 1,506.2 1,738.2 2,007.2 2,594.2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production


Plywood 24.8 28.1 31.9 35.8 40.3 49.6 Particleboard 709.0 823.9 957.4 1,100.9 1,265.9 1,621.3 Fiberboard 412.0 487.5 576.9 674.6 788.9 1,041.1 Woodbased panels 1,145.8 1,339.5 1,566.2 1,811.4 2,095.1 2,711.9

Newsprint 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Printing & writing 573.6 690.7 831.7 988.4 1,174.8 1,595.6 Other paper & board 584.2 671.9 772.7 879.9 1,002.0 1,261.4 Paper & board 1,157.8 1,362.5 1,604.3 1,868.3 2,176.8 2,857.0

Summary table

32

Country: Spain GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv.: Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.60 2.60 2.20 2.20 1.70

Consumption


Plywood 167.6 185.5 205.4 224.4 245.2 282.6 Particleboard 2,548.0 2,932.3 3,382.1 3,824.2 4,331.4 5,272.3 Fiberboard 893.0 992.5 1,105.8 1,214.3 1,335.8 1,554.0 Woodbased panels 3,608.6 4,110.4 4,693.4 5,262.9 5,912.4 7,108.9


2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production

Coniferous sawn wood 2,413.4 2,659.4 2,931.2 3,183.6 3,458.2 3,931.8 Nonconif. sawn wood 725.4 778.7 836.1 888.3 943.8 1,037.0 Total sawn wood 3,138.8 3,438.1 3,767.3 4,071.9 4,402.0 4,968.8

Plywood 313.3 338.6 366.3 393.5 422.9 478.9 Particleboard 2,074.2 2,300.0 2,551.5 2,788.7 3,048.8 3,507.8 Fiberboard 884.8 1,040.8 1,241.1 1,459.6 1,734.3 2,336.7 Woodbased panels 3,272.3 3,679.4 4,158.9 4,641.9 5,205.9 6,323.4


Summary table

33

Country: Sweden GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv.: Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.60 2.60 2.30 2.30 1.80

Consumption


Plywood 175.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 Particleboard 669.6 738.5 816.5 894.1 981.0 1,138.8 Fiberboard 213.0 231.4 252.2 272.9 296.1 338.4 Woodbased panels 1,057.6 1,144.9 1,243.6 1,342.0 1,452.1 1,652.2

Newsprint 437.0 475.6 517.5 557.8 601.2 676.0 Printing & writing 523.0 540.1 557.7 573.8 590.4 617.3 Other paper & board 1,231.2 1,304.8 1,382.7 1,455.6 1,532.3 1,660.8 Paper & board 2,191.2 2,320.4 2,458.0 2,587.2 2,723.9 2,954.1

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production


Plywood 117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4 Particleboard 619.4 639.3 660.3 679.8 700.3 734.4 Fiberboard 210.0 225.2 242.8 260.7 280.9 318.4 Woodbased panels 946.8 982.0 1,020.5 1,057.9 1,098.7 1,170.2


Summary table

34

Country: Switzerland GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary05/14/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.40 2.40 2.00 2.00 1.40

Consumption

Coniferous sawn wood 1,531.0 1,565.3 1,600.4 1,630.3 1,660.7 1,704.3 Nonconif. sawn wood 211.0 222.4 234.5 245.0 256.0 272.3 Sawn wood 1,742.0 1,787.8 1,834.9 1,875.3 1,916.7 1,976.6

Plywood 139.4 155.4 173.2 189.7 207.7 235.9 Particleboard 369.6 420.5 478.4 532.8 593.4 690.3 Fiberboard 235.2 271.8 314.1 354.4 399.9 473.9 Woodbase panels 744.2 847.7 965.7 1,076.9 1,201.0 1,400.2

Newsprint 302.2 328.0 356.0 381.2 408.2 449.3 Printing & writing 565.0 662.8 777.6 888.5 1,015.3 1,224.6 Other paper & board 602.2 679.0 765.7 846.4 935.7 1,077.1 Paper and board 1,469.4 1,669.9 1,899.2 2,116.1 2,359.1 2,751.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production

Coniferous sawn wood 1,253.0 1,281.1 1,309.8 1,334.3 1,359.2 1,394.8 Nonconif. sawn wood 184.0 194.0 204.5 213.7 223.3 237.5 Sawn wood 1,437.0 1,475.1 1,514.3 1,547.9 1,582.4 1,632.3

Plywood 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.1 Particleboard 514.0 584.8 665.3 741.0 825.3 960.1 Fiberboard 146.8 169.6 196.0 221.2 249.6 295.8 Woodbase panels 663.8 757.8 865.1 966.3 1,079.3 1,260.9

Newsprint 306.8 333.0 361.4 387.0 414.4 456.2 Printing & writing 464.0 544.4 638.6 729.7 833.8 1,005.7 Other paper & board 801.4 903.6 1,018.9 1,126.4 1,245.2 1,433.4 Paper & board 1,572.2 1,781.0 2,018.9 2,243.1 2,493.4 2,895.3

Summary table

35

Country: Turkey GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary05/14/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 6.90 6.90 5.70 5.70 4.60

Consumption

Coniferous sawn wood 2,419.4 2,578.0 2,747.0 2,895.1 3,051.1 3,321.2 Nonconif. sawn wood 1,976.4 2,296.7 2,668.8 3,022.3 3,422.6 4,185.5 Sawn wood 4,395.8 4,874.6 5,415.8 5,917.3 6,473.7 7,506.8

Plywood 68.0 92.2 125.1 161.2 207.7 313.2 Particleboard 1,576.6 2,265.0 3,254.1 4,397.7 5,943.2 9,690.4 Fiberboard 489.2 733.4 1,099.6 1,540.1 2,157.0 3,728.4 Woodbase panels 2,133.8 3,090.7 4,478.9 6,099.0 8,307.9 13,732.0

Newsprint 378.7 477.7 602.4 730.3 885.4 1,209.3 Printing & writing 453.2 707.8 1,105.5 1,602.2 2,322.2 4,245.0 Other paper & board 1,361.2 1,908.1 2,674.6 3,540.9 4,687.9 7,391.3 Paper and board 2,193.1 3,093.5 4,382.5 5,873.5 7,895.5 12,845.6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production

Coniferous sawn wood 2,252.6 2,400.3 2,557.6 2,695.5 2,840.8 3,092.3 Nonconif. sawn wood 1,923.4 2,235.1 2,597.2 2,941.2 3,330.8 4,073.3 Sawn wood 4,176.0 4,635.3 5,154.8 5,636.7 6,171.6 7,165.5

Plywood 50.6 68.6 93.1 120.0 154.5 233.0 Particleboard 1,547.8 2,223.7 3,194.7 4,317.4 5,834.7 9,513.4 Fiberboard 400.4 600.3 900.1 1,260.6 1,765.6 3,051.8 Woodbase panels 1,998.8 2,892.6 4,187.9 5,698.0 7,754.8 12,798.3

Newsprint 86.2 108.7 137.1 166.2 201.5 275.3 Printing & writing 250.6 391.4 611.3 886.0 1,284.1 2,347.3 Other paper & board 1,027.0 1,439.6 2,017.9 2,671.6 3,537.0 5,576.6 Paper & board 1,363.8 1,939.7 2,766.3 3,723.8 5,022.5 8,199.2

36

Summary table

Country:United Kingdom GDP growth: Base Prices: Constant

Projection summary EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv.: Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.50 2.50 2.30 2.30 1.90

Consumption

Coniferous sawn wood 8,614.6 8,914.0 9,224.0 9,519.0 9,823.7 10,349.2 Nonconif. sawn wood 682.5 736.3 794.7 852.7 915.1 1,028.6 Total sawn wood 9,297.1 9,650.3 10,018.7 10,371.7 10,738.7 11,377.8

Plywood 982.7 1,058.6 1,140.5 1,228.6 1,323.6 1,536.0 Particleboard 3,244.5 3,320.8 3,398.8 3,472.3 3,547.3 3,674.9 Fiberboard 1,212.7 1,273.6 1,337.8 1,399.7 1,464.7 1,578.9 Woodbased panels 5,439.9 5,653.1 5,877.1 6,100.6 6,335.5 6,789.8


2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production




37

Summary table

Country: Western GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary Europe EurGDP: Base Costs: Constant05/14/02 Res. Inv.: Normal

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate

Consumption




2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production




38

Summary table

Country: Russia GDP growth: Base Prices: ConstantProjection summary05/15/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 4.80 4.80 4.10 4.10 3.40

Consumption


Plywood 442.2 763.3 1,317.5 2,107.6 3,371.6 4,710.2 Particleboard 2,071.0 3,381.2 5,520.4 8,415.6 12,829.2 17,922.8 Fiberboard 569.7 978.6 1,681.1 2,678.3 4,267.0 5,961.1 Woodbased panels 3,082.9 5,123.1 8,518.9 13,201.4 20,467.7 28,594.0

Newsprint 473.7 725.0 1,109.5 1,599.5 2,305.8 3,221.3 Printing & writing 410.7 629.8 965.8 1,394.7 2,014.0 2,813.6 Other paper & board 1,901.7 2,482.1 3,239.7 4,071.0 5,115.6 7,146.6 Paper & board 2,786.0 3,836.8 5,315.1 7,065.2 9,435.4 13,181.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production


Plywood 1,302.0 2,247.3 3,878.8 6,205.0 9,926.4 13,867.4 Particleboard 1,959.3 3,198.9 5,222.7 7,961.8 12,137.5 16,956.4 Fiberboard 760.7 1,306.7 2,244.8 3,576.3 5,697.6 7,959.7 Woodbased panels 4,022.0 6,752.9 11,346.3 17,743.1 27,761.5 38,783.6

Newsprint 1,571.3 2,404.9 3,680.8 5,306.2 7,649.3 10,686.3 Printing & writing 543.7 833.7 1,278.6 1,846.3 2,666.2 3,724.8 Other paper & board 2,341.3 3,056.0 3,988.7 5,012.2 6,298.3 8,798.9 Paper & board 4,456.3 6,294.7 8,948.1 12,164.7 16,613.9 23,210.1

Summary table

39

Country: Russia GDP growth: Low Prices: ConstantProjection summary05/15/02

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

GDP growth rate 2.80 2.80 2.10 2.10 2.00

Consumption


Plywood 442.2 612.4 848.1 1,084.8 1,387.6 1,691.5 Particleboard 2,071.0 2,772.6 3,711.9 4,627.2 5,768.1 7,031.3 Fiberboard 569.7 786.6 1,086.2 1,386.3 1,769.3 2,156.8 Woodbased panels 3,082.9 4,171.7 5,646.2 7,098.3 8,925.1 10,879.6

Newsprint 473.7 609.8 785.1 950.0 1,149.6 1,401.3 Printing & writing 410.7 529.3 682.3 826.4 1,000.9 1,220.1 Other paper & board 1,901.7 2,225.2 2,603.7 2,930.7 3,298.7 4,021.1 Paper & board 2,786.0 3,364.3 4,071.1 4,707.1 5,449.1 6,642.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

Production


Plywood 1,302.0 1,803.1 2,497.0 3,193.9 4,085.2 4,979.9 Particleboard 1,959.3 2,623.1 3,511.8 4,377.7 5,457.1 6,652.2 Fiberboard 760.7 1,050.4 1,450.4 1,851.1 2,362.6 2,880.0 Woodbased panels 4,022.0 5,476.5 7,459.1 9,422.7 11,905.0 14,512.1

Newsprint 1,571.3 2,023.0 2,604.4 3,151.5 3,813.6 4,648.7 Printing & writing 543.7 700.8 903.3 1,094.0 1,325.0 1,615.2 Other paper & board 2,341.3 2,739.6 3,205.7 3,608.2 4,061.3 4,950.7 Paper & board 4,456.3 5,463.4 6,713.4 7,853.8 9,199.9 11,214.7

40

country · web viewqx = f(pd, px, sx), (6) where qdd is demand for domestically-produced products,...

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