02may14 - the demographic implications of scottish independence
DESCRIPTION
During 2014, ILC-UK, supported by the specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc, is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy. The third event in the series explored the demographic implications of Scottish independence. In 2014, Scotland will vote in an independence referendum which could significantly change its relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom. An independent Scotland would have a fully independent NHS, control a significant proportion of the North Sea oil reserves and will take on a percentage of the UK national debt. An independent Scotland would also result in the UK having a new demographic makeup. There are currently a number of marked differences between the two countries which will be highlighted by the division. These include a 2.8 year gap in healthy life expectancy for men, as well as differences in overall life expectancy and mortality rates. Recent figures released by the ONS suggest that the future health of an independent Scotland may actually align with that of the UK. The number of children aged two to 15 either overweight or obese in Scotland is now equal to that of England (30%), and lower than Wales (36%), and Scottish men are significantly more active than their counterparts in both countries. The seminar explored these differences, as well as how the demography of an independent Scotland may change over time, and what future Scottish Governments (with or without independence) may need to do to adapt to these demographic changes. Scottish independence would have a number of age-related policy implications for both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. The issue of Scotland’s ageing population has already entered political debate, with the SNP announcing that, if elected, they would make new pensioners £4.40 a month better off than in England, while also pledging to set up a commission looking at the state pension age. The Scottish government has also announced that benefits, tax credits and state pensions would continue to be paid from the first day of independence, but have not addressed how they will meet the challenge of moving schemes from one administration to another.TRANSCRIPT
The demographic implications of Scottish independence
Population Patterns Seminar Series
Friday 2nd May 2014
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns
Welcome
Tim Ellis
Chief ExecutiveNational Records of Scotland
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns
David Sinclair
Assistant Director, Policy and CommunicationsILC-UK
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Demographic change in Scotland
David Sinclair, International Longevity
Centre – UK @ilcuk @sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
ILC-UK Planning Tomorrow, Today
think tank evidence based policy focussed balanced independent respected experts networked international
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
We work with…
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Our focus is broad
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Percentage change in number of people of ‘working age’ 2013-2037
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Fertility rates per 1,000 females by age group
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Percentage change in numbers in employment relative to 2012
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Employment rates by age band
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
At birth life expectancy by region (2008-10)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Life expectancy by region 1981-2030
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Dependency ratio indexed to 2012
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Oil and Gas revenues
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Spending per person in Scotland is currently higher than in the UK, at £12,629 per person in 2011/12, compared with £11,381.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has modelled what might happen to the government finances of an independent Scotland assuming that there is no policy change.
As a result of demographic trends and slowing oil revenues, the IFS forecast that public sector net debt in Scotland will exceed 100% of national income by 2033-34. By comparison, the UK which has some what more favourable demographics and is less reliant on revenues from fossil fuel, will see net debt to GDP fall to around 60% over the same time period.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Public Sector net debt projections
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
So
By international standards, the challenges facing
Scotland are not unique
But with no policy change, Scotland faces
arguably bigger demographic challenges than the
UK as a whole.
So how should Scottish policymakers (irrespective
of the independence vote) respond?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
David Sinclair
Assistant Director, Policy & Communications
International Longevity Centre
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda
Richard Willets
Director of LongevityPartnership
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns
Welcome by Partnership
Richard Willets
International Longevity Centre – 2 May 2014
Life expectancy trends in different countries
April 10, 2023
23
• Source: www.mortality.org
• In which pair of countries have trends in life expectancy been most similar?
• Used figures taken from the Human Mortality Database* for OECD countries covering a 50-year period (1960 to 2009)
• Considered life expectancy at age 65 (for males and females separately)
• Compared figures in 28 countries (i.e. 378 pairs)
• Calculated correlation coefficient between life expectancy figures for each pair of countries
Countries included in the analysis
April 10, 2023
24
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Hungary
Israel
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland USANew Zealand
England & WalesScotland Northern Ireland
The least similar pair of countries…
April 10, 2023
25
• Source: www.mortality.org
• Japan & Slovakia (least similar – 378th out of 378)
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20Japan
Slo-vakia
Male life expectancy at age
65
Similar, but not the most similar…
April 10, 2023
26
• Source: www.mortality.org
• Spain and Portugal (ranked 38th)
• Sweden and Finland (ranked 67th)
• France and Belgium (ranked 53rd)
• Australia and New Zealand (ranked 73rd)
• USA and Canada (ranked 34th)
• Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (ranked 106th)
The most similar pair of countries …
April 10, 2023
27
• Source: www.mortality.org
• England & Wales and Scotland
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20England & Wales
Scotland
Male life expectancy at age
65
Summary
April 10, 2023
28
• Source: www.mortality.org
• For males England & Wales and Scotland have the most similar trend
• For females the same pair are ranked 8th of 378
• Interesting to see whether trends will be as similar over next 50 years…
Thank you
April 10, 2023
29
Partnership is a trading style of the Partnership group of Companies, which includes; Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05465261), and Partnership Home Loans Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05108846).
Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Partnership Home Loans Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office for both companies is Heron Tower, 5 th Floor, 110 Bishopsgate, London, EC2N 4AY.
Kirsty MacLauchlan
Head of DemographyNational Records of Scotland
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns
Implications of the referendum on demographic change
Kirsty MacLachlan
Head of Demography
2 May 2014
• Recent changes in demography
• How might the referendum impact on demography in the future?– Population – Life expectancy– Fertility– Migration– Age structure
Overview
How has Scotland’s population changed over time?
An average ScotIn the late 1850s– were called John Smith or Mary
Macdonald
– had a 1 in 7 chance of dying before their first birthday
– lived almost 2 to a room, with a 1 in 3 chance of sharing the room with the whole family
– got married at 27 (John) and 25 (Mary)
– had a 1 in 3 chance of being married in their 20s
– had a life expectancy at birth of 40 (John) and 44 (Mary)
At end of the 20th Century– were called Lewis Smith or Emma
Brown
– had a 1 in 200 chance of dying before their first birthday
– each had 2 rooms to live in
– got married at 32 (Lewis) and 29 (Emma)
– had a 1 in 7 chance of being married in their 20s
– had a life expectancy at birth of 76 (Lewis) or 81 (Emma)
Estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2013 was 5,327,700
An increase of 14,100 since mid-2012 - the highest ever recorded
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Po
pu
lati
on
(th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Year
Population Change 1953-2013
•Mid-2012 to Mid-2013: Natural change: +900 Net migration: +10,000
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Pe
rso
ns
(th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Year
Natural change (births - deaths) Net migration
Scotland Performs Purpose TargetTo match average European (EU15) population growth over the
period from 2007 to 2017
What are the factors influencing changes in the
composition of the population?
Fertility
Live births per 1,000 women, by age
0
50
100
150
200
250
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Age of mother
Fert
ility
rate
1951
1964
1977
1991
2012
1Rate for age 15 includes births at younger ages and for age 44 for births at older ages
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bir
ths
Calendar Year
Births in Scotland to mothers born outside the UK, by mother’s country of birth, 2002 to 2012
Other EU pre-2004 EU Accession States Commonwealth Other countries
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bir
ths
Calendar Year
Births in Scotland, by mother's country of birth, 2002 to 2012
Scotland Rest Of the UK Outside UK
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Hu
ng
ary
Ro
ma
nia
Po
lan
d
La
tvia
Po
rtu
ga
l
Ge
rma
ny
Sp
ain
Cro
atia
Italy
Gre
ece
Au
stri
a
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Slo
vaki
a
Bu
lga
ria
Est
on
ia
Slo
ven
ia
Eu
rop
ea
n U
nio
n (
27
co
un
trie
s)
SC
OT
LA
ND
De
nm
ark
Lith
ua
nia
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Be
lgiu
m
Fin
lan
d
No
rwa
y
Sw
ed
en
Wa
les
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
En
gla
nd
Fra
nce
Ice
lan
d
Ire
lan
d
No
rth
ern
Ire
lan
d
Total Fertility Rate, selected European countries, 2011
Life Expectancy
Average age at death, selected causes, Scotland, 1978-2012
6062
6466
687072
7476
788082
8486
8890
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2012
Year
Aver
age
age
All causes
Stroke
Ischaemic heart disease
Cancer
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Years
MALE FEMALE
SCOTLAND
Leastdeprived
Mostdeprived
Ordered by lowest male life expectancy to highest
Life Expectancy at birth, 2008-2010
Migration
Rest of UK migration +7,900An increase of 4,900 from the previous year
47,700 in-migrants, 39,800 out-migrants
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Pe
rso
ns
(th
ou
san
ds)
Year
Out In Net
Overseas migration +2,100Net migration fell by 7,600. In-migration fell by 7,700
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Pe
rso
ns
(th
ou
san
ds)
Year
Out to overseas In from overseas Net
Net migration
•Country of birth
7 per cent of people living in Scotland were born outside of the UK increase of 3 percentage points since 2001
55 per cent of those born outside of the UK arrived between 2004 and 2011
69 per cent were of working age (aged 16-64) when they arrived
38 per cent were in their twenties
In Aberdeen City, 1 person in 6 was born outside of the UK compared with East Ayrshire where 1 person in 44 was born abroad
• Countries of birth outside of the UK
Growing ethnic diversity
2001 2011
• Proportion of people reported as belonging to minority ethnic group • between 2001 and 2011, Scotland
European comparisons: Proportion of foreign born population
ONS figures- UK migration
UK migration – main reason for entering UK
Impact of demography on
Households
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011Year
Per
cen
tag
e o
f al
l ho
use
ho
lds
1 person
2 people
3 people
4 people
5+ people
More people are living in smaller households
Growth in households has slowed since the start of the economic downturn
Annual increase in households, 2002-2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
An
nu
al i
ncr
ease
in
ho
use
ho
lds
Start of global economic downturn
Source: Household estimates based on Council Tax data
• Numbers are increasing (though slower than rest of UK and rest of the world)
• Life expectancy is increasing (at similar rate to rest of UK and EU)
• Fertility dropped in the 70s (and is now lower than the rest of the UK but still higher than the EU average)
• Greater urbanisation (and move from West to East)
Implications of the referendum?
• Is fertility likely to increase, decrease or stay the same?
• Is life expectancy likely to increase, decrease or stay the same?
• Is migration likely to increase, decrease or stay the same?
What is the projected population?
Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1952-2087
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1952 1967 1982 1997 2012 2027 2042 2057 2072 2087
Year
Pe
rso
ns
('0
00
s) Projected
Footnotes 1) Continuous line shows final population estimates and the broken line (2002 to 2010) shows those years which will be rebased using information from the 2011 Census. 2) 2012 based projection.
Key points: 2012-2022
• The population of Scotland is projected to increase from an estimated 5.31 million to 5.52 million over the ten years
• Increase in population – natural increase : 28%– net migration : 72%
Scotland’s changing age distribution
300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Age
(5 y
ear a
ge g
roup
s)
FemaleMale
1861
300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Age
(5 y
ear a
ge g
roup
s)
FemaleMale
1961
There is a projected increase of over
half a million households over the
next 25 years.
Wide variety in household growth across the country.
Projected percentage change in households, 2010-2035
•Variant projections
•High migration•High life expectancy•High fertility
•Low migration •Low Life expectancy• Low fertility
• High population
• Low population
•Single component variants •Combination component variants
•Zero net migration
•Special component variant
Actual and projected total population, Scotland, under the 2012-based principal and selected
variant projections, 1982-2087
Change in average (median) age 2012-2037 (variant projections )
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037Year
Ag
e in
yea
rs
Natural change
Low population
Low fertility
Low migration
High life expectancy
Principal
Low life expectancy
High migration
High fertility
High population
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
HighPopulation
High lifeexpectancy
Highmigration
High fertility Principal Low fertility Naturalchange only
Low migration Low lifeexpectancy
LowPopulation
Variant
Per
cent
age
chan
ge
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
Percentage change in age structure 2012-2037 variant projections
Projected percentage of population over 75, selected European countries, 2035
Source: ONS (UK and constituent countries) and Eurostat.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%Ir
elan
d
Luxe
mbo
urg
Cyp
rus
Slo
vaki
a
Rom
ania
Lith
uani
a
Nor
ther
n Ir
elan
d
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Eng
land
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Est
onia
UK
Latv
ia
Hun
gary
Spa
in
Sw
eden
Aus
tria
Gre
ece
Sco
tland
Bul
garia
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Net
herla
nds
Slo
veni
a
Fra
nce
Mal
ta
Italy
Wal
es
Fin
land
Ger
man
y
Per
cen
tag
e ag
ed 7
5+
Summary
• Scotland’s population is likely to continue to increase and age over the next 25 years regardless of the outcome of the referendum
• Net migration assumed to be the main contributor to population growth
Any questions?
Professor David Bell
Professor of EconomicsUniversity of Stirling
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns
Demographic Implications of Scottish Independence.
PROFESSOR DAVID BELLDIVISION OF ECONOMICSSTIRLING MANAGEMENT SCHOOLUNIVERSITY OF STIRLING
There has been a substantial increase in the number of states in the world in recent decades
• The number of sovereign states has been steadily increasing for the last six decades at least
• Median country size now less than 6m people. • Scottish population = 5.3m.
1950 1940 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
50
100
150
200
250
Nu
mb
er
of
So
ve
reig
n
Sta
tes
Has the Union been bad for Scotland’s population?Scotland’s Population/England’s Population 1600-2011
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 20500%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Year
Sc
otl
an
d P
op
/En
gla
nd
Po
p
Act of Union
Two areas where demographics are making a significant impact on the independence debate
• Migration
– Can an independent Scotland’s economy grow consistently faster than rUK unless it is experiencing at least the same rate of net immigration?
– What policy tools are available and effective in increasing net migration?
• Ageing
– Could an independent Scotland meet the additional costs associated with population ageing?
– Could these costs be mitigated if Scotland was independent?
Ageing
• Higher welfare costs?
• Shorter life expectancy in Scotland
• But fewer people of working age per pensioner
• Estimates of extra costs in Scotland sensitive to assumptions about future net migration in Scotland and rUK
Welfare Spending in Scotland 2011-12
Relative Costs of Benefits per Working Age PersonScotland v Great Britain 2012-13
Maternity Allowance
Council Tax Benefit
Over 75 TV licences
Winter Fuel Payments
Total identified expenditure
Pension Credit
Income Support
Industrial Injuries Benefits
Disability Living Allowance
SDA (of which working age)
Employment and Support Allowance
Incapacity Benefit
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Differences in Costs of Pensioner Benefits Per Working Age Person
2012
/13
2014
/15
2016
/17
2018
/19
2020
/21
2022
/23
2024
/25
2026
/27
2028
/29
2030
/31
2032
/33
2034
/35
£0
£1,000
£2,000
£3,000
£4,000
£5,000
£6,000
ScotlandEngland
Ex
pe
nd
itu
re o
n P
en
sio
ne
r B
en
efi
ts
Pe
r W
ork
ing
Ag
e P
ers
on
Demographic ChangeEuropean old-age dependency ratios 2010
Source: Eurostat
Old-age Dependency Ratios 2040
Source: Eurostat
Ageing
• Costs to society – measure as share of GDP – depends crucially on relative productivity of Scottish economy
• Private pensions – sensitive to interest rates. Pension funds will buy Scottish Government bonds. Cheaper/more expensive than UK bonds?
Migration
What we know:Net Migration to Scotland
Source: National Records of Scotland, 2013 *The broken line (2002 to 2011) shows estimates which may be recalculated using the 2011 Census
Wages and Proportion of Foreign Born Residents (2012)
£440 £460 £480 £500 £520 £540 £560 £5800
5
10
15
20
25
5.94999999999999
5.97
8.15000000000001
8.40000000000001 8.54000000000
001
9.24000000000001
9.96000000000001
10.4312.04
23.2433333333333
Gross Weekly Wage (£)
Pro
po
rtio
n F
ore
ign
Bo
rn
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2012, Annual Population Survey 2012
Further evidence: COMPAS public opinion research October 2013; 4,200+ responses
98
• Scotland: more welcoming/less hostile towards migration– Scotland: 58% desire reductions in immigration– England & Wales: 75% desire reductions in immigration
• Support for Scotland controlling its own immigration policy– 60% Scottish Government, 31% UK government
• Yes voters less opposed to immigration than No voters – 58% of No voters desire a reduction in immigration – 28% of Yes voters desire a reduction in immigration
Voting intentions and attitudes to migration
99
Too low About right Too high Don't know0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
YesNoDon't know
Voting Intention
Do you think the level of migration into Scotland in the last decade has been:
A Separate Immigration Policy for Scotland within the UK?
• Requires political consent from both levels of government
– Acceptable to public(s)
– Effectiveness in meeting objective(s)
– Stable within devolved settlement
– Seems to work in Quebec
100
Conclusions
• Demographic arguments may favour a more open approach to immigration in Scotland (whether independent or not)
• Arguably, while an independent policy might have slightly stronger policy levers, a devolved migration policy might face fewer constraints in terms of implementation
• Ageing poses a challenge with or without independence• Risk pooling argument would suggest benefits from continuing to handle
risks at UK level• But Scotland might be able to put in place a better structured welfare
policy• Within tight fiscal constraints, difficult to argue that there would not be
losers as well as gainers from a restructuring of welfare
101
Professor Carol Jagger
AXA Prof of Epidemiology of AgeingInstitute for Ageing and Health
Newcastle University
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns
Implications of Scotland’s independence on healthy longevity
Carol JaggerAXA Professor of Epidemiology of Ageing
Pia WohandSenior Research Associate
Institute for Ageing and HealthNewcastle University
ILC UK Debate 2 May 2014
Demographic challenge for Scotland and rest of UK
• Inequalities in Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE)– Widening or narrowing?– What factors explain them?
• Challenges of extending working life in terms of– Inequalities in DFLE– Who cares for whom?
“ Increased longevity without quality of life is an empty prize. Health expectancy is more important than life expectancy.”
Dr Hiroshi Nakajima, Director-General WHO 1997
DFLE inequalities exceed those in LE and are widening
1991 2001 1991 2001
mean 77.5 79.2 62.5 62.40.10 76.5 77.3 60.3 59.80.90 78.4 80.8 65.1 65.2
10-90% range 1.9 3.5 4.8 5.5mean 79.2 80.9 63.9 64.60.10 77.5 79.1 60.1 59.90.90 80.7 82.6 67.0 68.3
10-90% range 3.2 3.5 6.9 8.4mean 72.0 73.8 59.2 59.40.10 69.9 71.8 56.3 56.60.90 74.0 75.9 61.8 61.7
10-90% range 4.1 4.1 5.6 5.2mean 73.8 76.4 60.9 62.20.10 71.7 74.0 56.4 56.90.90 75.6 78.5 64.5 66.3
10-90% range 3.9 4.5 8.1 9.4W
omen
Men
LE DFLE
Scot
land
Eng
land
&
Wal
esSc
otla
ndE
ngla
nd &
W
ales
Where you live or how you live?
Which socio-economic factors explain variation in DFLE in E&W?
DFLE at birth
Women
1991 2001
Univariable Multivariable Univariable Multivariable
β (SE) p β (SE) p β (SE) p β (SE) p
Social Class IV and V (%) -0.46 (0.02) <0.001 -0.16 (0.03) <0.001 -0.66 (0.02) <0.001 -0.35 (0.03) <0.001
Unemployment rate (%) -0.64 (0.03) <0.001 -0.53 (0.05) <0.001 -1.33 (0.05) <0.001 -0.67 (0.08) <0.001
Retirement migration 1.71 (0.11) <0.001 0.42 (0.11) <0.001 3.18 (0.24) <0.001 1.42 (0.15) <0.001
Population density -0.04 (0.01) <0.001 0.02 (0.01) 0.005 -0.04 (0.01) <0.001 -0.01 (0.01) 0.337
Non-white population (%) -0.08 (0.02) <0.001 0.03 (0.02) 0.063 -0.07 (0.02) <0.001 0.05 (0.01) <0.001
r2 0.70 0.81
Source: Wohland et al 2014, JECH (in press)
Ethnic composition 2011 census
ENGLAND SCOTLAND Aberdeen City Edinburgh, City of
Glasgow City75
80
85
90
95
100
Other Ethnic GroupBlack / African / Caribbean / Black BritishAsian / Asian British: Other AsianAsian / Asian British: ChineseAsian / Asian British: BangladeshiAsian / Asian British: PakistaniAsian / Asian British: IndianMixed / Multiple Ethnic GroupsGypsy / Traveller / Irish TravellerWhite
LE and DFLE at birth by ethnic group, 2001
♀♂
AsianWhite Mixed Black Other
Differences compared to White British
Wohland et al 2014, Ethnicity & Health
Potential for extending working life UK*, men 2001Average age at onset of
disability
Regions 65+ (N) <65 (N) <65 (%)
EE 48 0 0
EM 35 5 13
LO 28 4 13
NE 10 13 57
NW 29 14 33
SE 67 0 0
SW 44 0 0
WM 31 3 9
YH 16 5 24
Wales 12 10 45
Total (E&W) 320 54 14
Scotland 22 10 31
*European Union 2005 analysis in Jagger et al, Lancet 2009
Need for care
Critical (requires 24-hour care) Short-interval (requires help at
regular times daily) Long-interval (requires help less than
daily) Independent
Source: Jagger et al. BMC Geriatrics 2011
• 75% in care homes• If at home main carer child
• 33% in care homes• If at home main carer spouse
(34%), child (31%)
• 4% in care homes• If at home main carer child
(37%), no-one (18%)
Who are the carers?
Born age 85 child bornchild age when
parent 85
1921 2006 1947 59
1931 2016 1956 60
1941 2026 1965 61
1951 2036 1976 60
1961 2046 1986 60
1971 2056 1997 59
Conclusions• Inequalities in healthy ageing
– Between different ethnic groups– Explained partly by unhealthy behaviours
• Ability to raise SPA and encourage longer working may be difficult– In those areas with age at onset of disability <65
• Longer life expectancy and growing 85+ population means working longer will entail juggling work and unpaid care for parent. This will disproportionally affect – women who provide most care
Acknowledgements
Newcastle 85+ Study funded by the Medical Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological
Sciences Research Council and the Dunhill Medical Trust. Additional work has also been funded by the British Heart Foundation, Unilever Corporate
Research, Newcastle University and NHS North of Tyne (Newcastle Primary Care Trust).
http://www.ncl.ac.uk/iah/research/areas/biogerontology/85plus/
InHALE Inequalities in Healthy Active Life Expectancy: the role of time, place, person and
methodsESRC Research Fund RES-062-23-2970 1 October 2011 - 30 September 2014
http://research.ncl.ac.uk/InHALE
Find out more about healthy life expectancy
REVES 2014Edinburgh
28-30 May 2014
Implications of Scotland’s independence on healthy longevity
Carol Jagger([email protected])
Pia Wohand([email protected])
Institute for Ageing and HealthNewcastle University
ILC UK Debate 2 May 2014
The demographic implications of Scottish independence
Population Patterns Seminar Series
Friday 2nd May 2014
This event is kindly supported by Partnership
#populationpatterns