03/04

Next homework available in D2L!

““The World We Create”The World We Create”NATS 101NATS 101Section 6Section 6

UNIT 2: Global Warming,

Natural or Man-Made?

Some Data

The average temperature in our planet is

increasing, BUT it has happened before.

oCW/m2

Some Data

Solar activity has had a strong correlation with Earth’s temperature, BUT not in present times.

CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere always correlate very strongly with the average temperature,

BUT CO2 increases tend to lag with respect to T increases.

Some Data

CO2 is a minor component of the atmosphere, BUT is a potent greenhouse gas involved in

many natural cycles in our planet.

Some Data

Each team will split into two groups:

One group will support the position that human actions are the main contributing factor to global warming, while the other group will support the

position that the cause of global warming is due to natural occurrences.

Use information you learned today in class to support your arguments.

At the end of the debate, take a poll to determine the overall team’s position

on this issue.

Mini-Debate

Since the late 1800s, the average temperature of Earth increased 0.4-0.8 oC

(that’s 0.7-1.4 oF)

Effects?

Global warming is predicted to have a major

impact on climate and life on Earth. Global Climate Change

Effects of Global WarmingClimate

Is global warming affecting hurricanes?

In your groups interpret the data

provided and answer the questions on the

worksheet.

You have 5 minutes

Sand storms

HurricanesHurricanes

Tornadoes

Extreme Weather

Glacial Melting

Scientists predict that if the current rate of global

warming continues, the Arctic could be ice-free in

the summer by 2040.

Rising global temperatures speed the melting of glaciers and ice caps

Sea ice helps maintain the cold temperatures of the

underlying water.

Ice extent has a strong influence on Earth’s albedo.

This melting is one cause for This melting is one cause for the rise in sea levels.the rise in sea levels.

Current rise in sea level is 1.8mm per year.

Flooding

• 50 million people worldwide could become “environmental refugees” by 2010, displaced by rising sea levels, depleted aquifers and intermittent river flooding.

• Sea-level has risen about 130 meters (400 ft) since the peak of the last ice age about 18,000 years ago.

The snow is melting earlier in the year much longer fire seasons in Arizona.

Warmer temperatures promotes outbreaks of tree-eating beetles which help fuel forest fires

Wildfires

Effects of Global Warming Life: Biodiversity

In pairs interpret the graph and answer the questions on the worksheet. Once you are finished compare your data with the rest of

your group. You have 5 minutes

The Predicament of the Painted Turtle

Biodiversity

In general, biodiversity decreases as

temperature increases

Ecosystems and Species

Species that cannot adapt

go extinct.

Antarctic penguin

populations have shrunk

by 33 percent

In California, shoreline sea

life is shifting northward.

ArcticArctic

Two-thirds of the

world's polar bear sub-

populations will be

extinct by mid-century

due to Arctic ice cap

melting.

Tropics

Habitats drying out.

Tropical forests give off more CO2 than they take

up.

Rise in CO2 changes composition of the forest .

What should we do?

How do we make decisions?

Risk Assessment

The determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized

threat.

A tool to help make the best informed decisions by weighing the pros and

cons

Why Assess Risk?

•Make the best informed decisions

•Understand potential consequences for each scenario

•Awareness of how to prepare for risks

•Realization of costs involved

Example: H1N1 Vaccine

H1N1 Facts The H1N1 is a pandemic flu virus. The people that should be vaccinated:

Children 6 months to 24 years old, anyone over 50 and pregnant women. The vaccine is 92% effective in pregnant women and depending on the person, two shots may be required. The vaccine itself is free, but the provider charges an administration fee. H1N1 is very contagious!*Remember that you are a student that has limited time

and funds, and go to a school with almost 40,000 students. What could be some of the possible outcomes

for either getting or not getting the vaccination?

Climate Change: Risks?

To Keep in mind: Average temperatures are actually increasing; A majority of scientist think current climate change is human induced. However, there many people that disagree; Consequences of global climate change could be devastating; Taking action could be very costly, particularly for developing nations.

How can you use “Risk Assessment” to make a decision concerning what to support in the

debate about Global Climate Change?

Global Climate Change: Risk Assessment

Using your knowledge about global warming, you need to complete a risk assessment which

clearly shows the consequences of taking action or not taking action against global

warming.

Consider the political, social, economic, and environmental aspects

You have 10 minutes

Based on your completed risk assessment, what will you decide and why?

What is the main factor influencing your decision?

How might you follow through with this decision?

You have 3 minutes

Global Climate Change: Risk Assessment