TEORI NEW ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

TEORI NEW ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHYRP14-1324 EKONOMI WILAYAH (3 SKS) 1Analisis Ekonomi RegionalSpace Region Pola dan Struktur Pemanfaatan Ruang WilayahTeori Lokasi &Ekonomi Regional3 Kelompok Pemikiran/Pendekatan Mengenai Teori Lokasi :Least Cost TheoryMarket Area TheoryBid Rent Theory 22Keterkaitan Geografi ekonomi, Teknologi, dan Strategi3GEOGRAFI EKONOMI Where WhySTRATEGI Globalisasi (slippery space) Sticky places (local embeddedness)TEKNOLOGI Inovasi Trajectories Knowledge spilloverMengapa aktivitas ekonomi cenderung untuk terkonsentrasi dan mengelompok secara geografis di beberapa tempat ?

4Aglomerasi skala kecil=Kluster industri* berada dalam satu wilayah tertentuIndustri karpet di Dalton, Georgia, USA (Krugman, 1991) dan industri tekstil Italia di kota Prato (Pyke, Bacattini dan Sangenberger, 1990; Porter, 1990)Aglomerasi skala besar* melintasi batas wilayah dan negaraManufacturing Belt di USA (yang meliputi wilayah : Green Bay-Saint Louis-Baltimore-Portland) dan Hot Banana di Eropa (meliputi daerah antara Milan dan London : Italia bagian Utara, Jerman bagian Selatan, Perancis bagian Tenggara, wilayah Ruhr, Ile de France, Belgia, Belanda dan Inggris bagian Tenggara)Aglomerasi Industri Manufaktur5 Teori LamaTeori Tempat Sentral (Central Place Theory)Teori Kutub Pertumbuhan (Growth Poles Theory) Teori Baru New Economic Geography / Geographical EconomicsEkonomi Regional3 March 201556Teori LamaTeori Tempat Sentral (Central Place Theory)Pengelompokan industri munculminimalisasi biaya transport, produksi dan kekuatan aglomeratif (Weber, 1909; Isard, 1956; Hoover, 1984)permintaan pasar (Losch, 1959)maksimalisasi laba perusahaan (Isard, 1957; Greenhut, 1956; Hotelling, 1929)Teori Kutub Pertumbuhan (Growth Poles Theory)Industri yang mengalami ekspansi yang berlokasi di suatu daerah perkotan, mendorong berkembangnya kegiatan industri lain keseluruh daerah dalam lingkup yang luasEkonomi Regional3 March 201567 Teori BaruNew Economic Geography / Geographical Economics Muncul karena paradigma lama memiliki banyak kelemahan dan kekurangan yang umumnya hanya memberikan penjelasan secara klasik berdasarkan atas penghematan aglomerasi (agglomeration economies) dalam bentuk :Penghematan lokalisasi (localisation economies)Penghematan urbanisasi (urbanisation economies)Ekonomi Regional3 March 20157Goals of the new economic geographyThe defining issue of the new economic geography is how to explain the formation of a large variety of economic agglomeration (or concentration) in geographical space. Agglomeration or the clustering of economic activity occurs at many geographical levels, having a variety of compositions.At the other extreme of the spectrum lies the core-periphery structure of the global economy corresponding to the North-South dualism.The larger point is that by modeling the sources of increasing returns to spatial concentration, we can learn something about how and when these returns may change, and then explore how the economys behavior changes with them8Paul KrugmanKrugman (1991) brought a new perspectives to economic geography (new economic geography) by introducing the concepts of product differentiation and scale economies.Krugmans model highlights the size effect, which differs from the traditional trade models.A large country dominates a small country by offering more varieties of products at lower prices under autarky.When trade opens and transportation cost is non-zero, which is key to his model, a large country enjoys a wage premium over a small country due to the advantage of proximity to a large home markethome market effect.9Paul Krugman10However, in a two-factor (worker and peasants) two-sector (manufacture and agriculture) model, a large worker group competes for agriculture products, resulting in a higher agriculture price or a lower real wage ratecompetition effect. The home market effect leads to a convergence of manufacturing production while the competition effect leads to a divergence. The degree of concentration depends on transportation cost.Forces affecting geographical concentration and dispersion

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1314NEG: Stylized factsAgglomerations; citys and size differences

Income and productivity differences among regions

Trade; comparable products (intra-sector trade)-Yellow and green pencils

1415Space and perfect competition: The spatial impossibility theoremHomogeneous spaceNo trade because of transport costsNo cities because of land pricesBack-yard capitalism

SolutionsHomogeneous space and indivisibilitiesNo equilibrium possible (people move or firms move)

Heterogeneous spaceThe rise and decline of cities (explanation and why not more often?; no path dependency)Are spatial differences large enoughIntra-sector trade

1516NEG: Imperfect competition and economies of scaleLove of VarietyDemand for slightly different (unique) productsConsequence: Economies of scale and market power

Monopolistic competitionMany different firms and productsEndogenous number of firms

1617NEG: Why Cities and AgglomerationsAgglomeration effects: Locate close to large marketMarket-access: firms minimize transport costsVariety effect: benefit of many varietiesCost of living effect: consumers minimize transport costs

Dispersion effects: Locate far away from large marketMarket-crowding: firms try to escape competitionHousing costs: consumers search for low housing pricesCongestion: communication and transaction costs

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WelfareAccessibilityCapitalNEG, Economics in Space and TimeInfrastructure investmentTransport innovationsIndustrial investment

1819Infrastructure and NEG: An ExampleCongestion

Versus Space

1920The Firm and Agglomeration effects2021The Firm: Increasing city size2122The Firm: A new road2223Agglomeration economies: Spatial Dynamics over time.Urbanisation and agglomerationIn the presence of agglomeration effects there are large gains to be made by increasing agglomeration size. There is place for different size of agglomerations at different locations (not only one big agglomeration).Multiple solutions and path dependency.

However: First Welfare Theorem is no longer validExternal effects of our behaviour are not taken into account in our decisions. These effects may be negative or positive.Negative outcomes if there are agglomeration forces driving migration with strong congestion effects.The dynamics of the path determine the outcomes via path dependency.Other markets?

2324Agglomeration economies: Policy relevanceFirst Welfare TheoremWe Need a Government!

Spatial PlanningHousing and city size; construction for the unemployedValue of open space and the environment

Social PolicySupporting the perifery: Poor scientists and Rich cleaning ladies?

InfrastructureMaking Agglomerations

2425Infrastructure: Roads to development?How large are agglomeration economies in the Netherlands?- Benefits of infrastructure projects only based on demand curve?

How does accessibility affect economies of agglomeration?- Should we open up the periphery?

Where are the largest benefits from agglomeration economies?- Which road improvements give us the largest additional benefits2526NEG: RAEM A Regional Applied Equilibrium Model for the NetherlandsProduction:Cobb DouglasIntermediateVarieties

Consumption:Varieties

Market:Monopolistic competition

Transport:Separate sector(no iceberg costs)

Labour:Search behavior

Imperfect competition2627

production/utility

commutingIndirect effects: Internalized External Effects# varietiesAmount of varietySubstitution elasticityVarieties on Consumption and product markets

Labour market (Spatial Beveridge curve)

unemployedVacanciestravel time2728The Empirical Research: RAEMEstimate Direct Effect by use of transport demand functionDirect effect: Benefit to all users of roadsEquals perfect competition outcome

RegionsRegion connectivity (40 simulations)Between regions (1600 simulations)

Estimate Total Effect with RAEM modelNEG and Labour market imperfections

results: Multiplier = total effect divided by direct effect

2829Multiplier = total effect divided by direct effectindicator for:

the size of the agglomeration effectAll multipliers would be equal to 1 in the absence of agglomeration effects and imperfect markets

The return on infrastructure investmentInvestments in infrastructure in the Netherlands are based on so-called direct effects. Marginal direct effects are expected to be equal in equilibrium and proportional to the costs of Infrastructure 2930

Results Regional Analysis (Commuting)Negative effectsPushing labour out of agglomeration

ARUStrong agglomeration economies in RandstadAmsterdamRotterdamUtrecht

3031Amsterdam versus ZaanstreekThe Zaanstreek Labor marketDifference in Out- and In-commutingTotal effect lower (double counting internal commuting)

Out-Commuting

In-Commuting

Commuting3132

Results Inter-Regional Analysis (Commuting)Agglomeration economies in RegionsShift of Jobs

Identify agglomerationsDefinition (National)Inflows are importantNo Rotterdam

Arnhem-Nijmegen

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Inter-Regional Analysis (Commuting & Trade)Longer distances importantRegional specialization and economies of agglomeration

Intra-regional connection less important

Relations to the east more important

Agglomeration largerRandstad3334

Commuting & Freight

Main RoadsCommuting

3435ConclusionsAgglomeration economies are important in the Netherlands, with Amsterdam the Core agglomeration.

Short distances within cities are more important for commuting than longer distancesSpatial Shift of jobs

Long distances are more important for trade in goodsSpecialization and Agglomeration

Underestimation of benefits:Multipliers on important roads between 1.25 and 1.75

Overestimation of benefits: Mutlipliers on non-important roads between 0.25 and 0.75 3536Questions on NEG and empiricsMigration and agglomeration effects. Are congestion effects taking over? What about the first welfare theorem? In other words: are the benefits of the migrant still larger then the disbenefits of the people in the agglomeration.

Regional distribution and Governance. Do we get rich people and poor regions or vice versa?

Agglomeration effects are due to what? We need more theory and more empirics!Knowledge spillovers?Linkages?Labour market?36ReferensiGordon L. Clark, Maryann P. Feldman, and Meric S. Gertler [2000], The Oxford handbook of economic geography, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UKMasahisa Fujita, Paul Krugman [2004], The new economic geography: Past, present and the future, Papers Regional Science, 83, 139164Masahisa Fujita, Paul Krugman, Anthony J. Venables [1999], The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts World Development Report [2009] RESHAPING ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, the World Bank, Washington, DC. www.worldbank.org 37SEKIAN DAN TERIMA KASIH

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