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TRANSCRIPT
THE OCTOBERWAR AND
THE PEACE PROCESS
A FEW THINGS …
The October War of 1973 was not fought to contest Israel’s existence, but to create conditions for negotiation.
The re-mobilization of Palestinian politics after the 1967 war remains its most enduring consequence.
Islamism has replaced nationalism as the ideological center of Palestinian resistance, as exemplified by the emergence of Hezbollah (Lebanon) and Hamas (Gaza) in 1980s.
The “peace process” has failed because the Palestinians have nothing to trade.
It is no longer clear that the Israelis have anything to trade, either.
UN RESOLUTION 24222 NOV 1967
Affirms … the application of both the following principles:
Withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict;
Termination of all claims or states of belligerency and respect for and acknowledgement of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of every State in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force;
Affirms further the necessity …
For achieving a just settlement of the refugee problem
UN RESOLUTION 24222 NOV 1967
Emphasizing the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war…
Affirms … the application of both the following principles:
Withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict;
Termination of all claims or states of belligerency and respect for and acknowledgement of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of every State in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force;
Affirms further the necessity …
For achieving a just settlement of the refugee problem
RADICALIZATION
1964 Palestine Liberation Organization founded under Egyptian auspices and Syrian protection
Fatah [Nationalist – Yasser Arafat]
PFLP [~Marxist – George Habash]
1965 Fatah attack on Israel’s National Water Carrier
1968 Yasser Arafat, head of Fatah, becomes Chairman
“National Charter” revised away to emphasize territorial liberation via armed struggle
Commando-style raids aim is to stimulate popular uprising (fails)
RADICALIZATION
1964 Palestine Liberation Organization founded under Egyptian auspices and Syrian protection
Fatah [Nationalist – Yasser Arafat]
PFLP [~Marxist – George Habash]
1965 Fatah attack on Israel’s National Water Carrier
1968 Yasser Arafat, head of Fatah, becomes Chairman
“National Charter” revised away to emphasize territorial liberation via armed struggle
Commando-style raids aim is to stimulate popular uprising (fails)
Mar “Battle of Karameh” establishes PLO as fighting organization, ostensible PLO-Jordanian alliance
“BLACK SEPTEMBER”
1969 PLO attacks on Israel bring heavy retaliation against Jordan; frequent clashes between PLO and Jordanian security forces
1970 Edict restricting Palestinian organizations (Feb)
Jordanian forces bombard Palestinian camps around Amman (400 dead, 750 wounded)
Three hijacked western jetliners (by PFLP) landed in Jordan; hostages distributed among camps (6 Sept)
Comprehensive attack on PLO begins (17 Sept)
Syrian intervention beaten off by Jordanian air force
BLACK SEPTEMBER
1969 PLO attacks on Israel bring heavy retaliation against Jordan; frequent clashes between PLO and Jordanian security forces
1970 Edict restricting Palestinian organizations (Feb)
Jordanian forces bombard Palestinian camps around Amman (400 dead, 750 wounded)
Three hijacked western jetliners (by PFLP) landed in Jordan; hostages distributed among camps (6 Sept)
Comprehensive attack on PLO begins (17 Sept)
Syrian intervention beaten off by Jordanian air force
1972 Olympic village attack by “Black September”
SETTLEMENTS
Emphasizing the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war… (Resolution 242)2016
THE OCTOBERWAR
THEWAR OF ATTRITION1968-69
1968
Oct Egyptian bombardment across Suez canal, Israeli counter-raids; construction of Bar Lev Line begins
1969
Mar Renewed bombardment
Apr Israeli counter-raid at Nag Hamadi
Jul Offensive against Egyptian air defenses (thru Dec)
Sept Ras Sadat raid w/captured Egyptian vehicles
Dec Rogers Plan canvassed by US, requiring “binding and specific commitment to peace” in return for evacuation of Sinai
THEWAR OF ATTRITION1970
Jan IAF gets green light for attacks near Cairo and in the Nile Delta
Nasser visit to Moscow, obtains agreement on air defense umbrella
Mar Soviet advisors/SAM crews/pilots = 8K
in September = 14K
Apr Israeli deep penetration raids end
IAF begins to encounter Soviet pilots over Canal
Integrated missile defense creeps toward Canal
July Five Soviet-piloted MiGs shot down
Sept Nasser dies (heart attack)
THE OCTOBERWARPRELIMINARIES
1971
Feb Sadat proposes Israeli withdrawal from Canal in exchange for re-opening and six-month cease fire
May Planning for resumption of war begins
June Sadat announces 1972 will be “year of decision”
1972
Feb Planning for SAM �missile wall� begins
July Soviet advisors expelled [supplies continue]
THE OCTOBERWARPRELIMINARIES
Our basic objective will be the destruction of Israel. The Arab people want to fight. … [Our] mining of Sharm el-Sheikh is a confrontation with Israel. Adopting this measure obligates us to be ready to embark on a general war with Israel. (Gamal Abdel Nasser, May 1967)
In our coming battle, I will not be satisfied to liberate the land. Israel�s arrogance and bluster, which has been going on for twenty-three years, all this must be terminated. As I have told them: I am ready to pay one million men as the price for this battle. But they too must be ready to pay a million men and more on their side. (Anwar el-Sadat, May, 1972)
THE OCTOBERWARPRELIMINARIES
1973
Apr Alliance with Syria concluded
May Egyptian preparations noted by Israeli intelligence
Aug 6 October (Yom Kippur) chosen as D-day
Sept Egypt and Syria begin concentration
Routine Israeli alert
THE OCTOBERWARPRELIMINARIES
1973
Apr Alliance with Syria concluded
May Egyptian preparations noted by Israeli intelligence
Aug 6 October (Yom Kippur) chosen as D-day
Sept Egypt and Syria begin concentration
Routine Israeli alert
Oct 6 Israeli intelligence reports (04:00) that attack will occur at 1800
Spoiling air offensive rejected
Mobilization begins 09:30
SYRIAN ADVANCEOCTOBER 1973
6th Syrian air and artillery bombardment achieves tactical surprise
Commandos capture Mount Hermon
Israeli air attacks suffer badly vs Soviet SAMs (total loss = 30 on both fronts)
7th Syrian 7th Infantry repulsed at Quneitra
8th Syrian 5th Division breaks through at Rafid
SYRIAN ADVANCEOCTOBER 1973
6th Syrian air and artillery bombardment achieves tactical surpriseCommandos capture Mount HermonIsraeli air attacks suffer badly vs Soviet SAMs
(total loss = 30 on both fronts)7th Syrian 7th Infantry repulsed at Quneitra8th Syrian 5th Division breaks through at Rafid
Advanced halted at base of Golan HeightsAnticipation of Israeli reservesAttrition (~900 tanks, out of 1200)Logistical depletion[Nuclear threat]
Golda, I was wrong in everything. … We shall have to withdraw from the Golan Heights, and save the last bullet.
Moshe Dayan to Golda Meir, 8 October
ISRAELI COUNTERATTACKOCTOBER 1973
8-9th Israeli counterattack regains most of Purple Line below Quneitra
Renewed Syrian attack halted with difficulty
9th Syrian SCUD attacks against Hula Valley
Israeli air campaign against industrial and POL targets (thru 21st)
BREAKTHROUGHOCTOBER 1973
10th Israeli counter-offensive along Quneitra-Damascus road (thru 12th)
Advance halted short of Damascus in order to shift forces to Sinai
15th Attacks by Jordanian and Iraqi armor repulsed
(Originally intended to exploit Syrian success)
CEASE FIRE1973
22nd Israelis retake Mount Hermon shortly before cease-fire becomes effective (19:00)
1974May Separation of Forces Agreement
EGYPTIAN CROSSINGOCT 1973
6th Air and artillery strikes against Bar Lev line
6-7th Strong Egyptian forces cross Suez Canal
8th Israeli counterattacks (Adan and Sharon) repulsed with heavy losses
9th Soviet airlift to Egypt (1/3) and Syria (2/3) begins
EXPLOITATIONOCT 1973
11th Egyptians plan offensive into Sinai in order to relieve pressure on Syrian front
13th US airlift begins
14th Egyptian offensive toward Sinai passes crushed
264 Egyptian tanks destroyed [vs 10 Israeli]
“Sagger” anti-tank missile
OPERATION GAZELLE
15th Israelis cross canal at “Chinese Farm”
CEASE FIRE
20th Adan�s forces cut Cairo-Suez road
22nd UN cease-fire declared, collapses
24th Adan reaches Gulf of Suez, cutting off Third Army
Suez city surrounded, not taken
Second UN cease-fire effective (07:00)
Soviet airborne troops placed on alert to intervene on behalf of Third Army if cease-fire fails
25th US forces go to DEFCON III worldwide
27th UN agrees to re-insert peacekeepers in Sinai and on the Golan Heights
CEASE FIRE
22 Nov 1973Egypt and Israel exchange prisoners of war (241 Israelis, 8,031 Egyptians)
18 Jan 1974 [Sinai I]Disengagement begins
4 Sept 1975 [Sinai II]
26 Feb 1976Israeli withdrawal complete
20 Nov 1977Sadat visits Jerusalem
CAMP DAVID17 SEPT 1978
LEBANON AND THE INTIFADA
LEBANON
1970 PLO ejected from Jordan
1975 Civil war in Lebanon begins
1976 Syrian intervention
1978 Operation Litani (Mar)
Israeli forces replaced by UN (Apr-June)
PLO continue to fortify position in the south
1979 Israeli-Egyptian Peace / Iranian Revolution
1981 US-mediated cease-fire (July)
1982 Fails (May)
PEACE FOR GALILEEJUNE, 1982
6th Two-pronged offensive (3 divs) along coast and through Beqa’a Valley
11th Israeli forces reach Beirut-Damascus road
Cease fire with main Syrian forces
Fighting with PLO / Syrian commandos continues
15th Israeli forces advance on Beirut
Mopping-up operations in countryside
26th Israelis drive Syrians from outskirts of Beirut
THE SIEGE BEIRUT1982
26 June-3 Sept
Artillery bombardment of Muslim (Western) districts
Air-dropped leaflets urging non-combatants to leave
Utilities down, food / medicine blockaded (thru 7 July)
August
Withdrawal plan by Philip Habib approved by Israelis
Multi-national force (US, French, Italian) deploys to insure safe withdrawal of PLO and Syrians
PLO leadership relocates to Tunis
THE SIEGE OF BEIRUT1982
September
Last PLO combatants leave city (3rd)
Christian Phalangist militia seeking PLO fighters slaughter hundreds of women and children in Sabra and Shatilla refugee camps (16th – 18th)
LEBANONSINCE PEACE FOR GALILEE
1983 US embassy bombed, 63 killed (Apr)
241 US and 58 French peacekeepers killed in simultaneous suicide attacks
First known operation by Hezbollah
1984 International peacekeepers withdraw from Beirut
Buffer zone established in the south
LEBANONSINCE PEACE FOR GALILEE
2002 Israeli forces withdraw from Southern Lebanon
2005 Syrian forces withdraw from Eastern Lebanon
LEBANONSINCE PEACE FOR GALILEE
2002 Israeli forces withdraw from Southern Lebanon
2005 Syrian forces withdraw from Eastern Lebanon
2006 Second Lebanon War [vs Hezbollah]
INTIFADA1987-91
1987 Rioting / demonstrations / tax strikes / non-cooperation (Dec)
Ad hoc “United Leadership of the Intifada”
1988 First communiqué from Hamas (Feb)
Jordan renounces all claims on West Bank (July)
UN General Assembly meets in Geneva; Yasser Arafat renounces terrorism
1989 First suicide bombing [Hamas]
THE PEACE PROCESS
THE PEACE PROCESS
1991 Madrid Conference (Oct-Nov)1993 Oslo I [“Declaration of Principles”] (Sept)
PLO renounces “violence and terrorism”PLO accepts UN resolutions 242 and 338PLO accepts Israel’s right to existPLO representative of Palestinian people
1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty (Oct)1995 Oslo II [“Interim Agreement”] (Sept)
Autonomy by degrees within zones
Freeze of settlementsDemilitarization of conflict
Yitzhak Rabin assassinated (Nov)
THE PEACE PROCESS
2000 Camp David “Final Status” negotiations (July)
[Israel withdraws from Southern Lebanon (July)]
Sharon visit to Al-Aqsa Mosque sparks rioting
THE PEACE PROCESS
2001 Taba Conference (Jan)
2002 Karine A seized (Jan)
THE PEACE PROCESS
2002 West Bank barrier construction begins (June)
Saudi Arabian plan proposed to Arab League (rejected)
Pre-1967 frontiers
“Right of return”
THE PEACE PROCESS
2002 West Bank barrier construction begins (June)
Saudi Arabian plan proposed to Arab League (rejected)
Pre-1967 frontiers
“Right of return”
THE PEACE PROCESS
2002 West Bank barrier construction begins (June)Saudi Arabian plan proposed to Arab League (rejected)
Pre-1967 frontiers“Right of return”
2003 Palestinian Draft ConstitutionQuartet “Road Map” [US, EU, UN, Russia]
2004 Yasser Arafat dies, succeeded by Mahmoud Abbas2005 Israel abandons Gaza Strip2006 Hamas Electoral Victory
[Second Lebanon War]2007 Hamas coup in Gaza (June)
GAZA
2008 “Cast Lead”
2012 “Pillar of Defense”
2014 “Protective Edge”
2018 “Great March of Return”