05998 city wire_may 11
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GSF Investec Africa & Middle East Fund
Page 2 | CONFIDENTIAL 05998
Target audience
This document is only for professional investors, professional financial advisors and, at their exclusive discretion, their clients. No other person should rely on the information contained in this document.
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This document is not to be generally distributed to the public.
Page 3 | CONFIDENTIAL 05998
Agenda
● Introduction to Investec Asset Management
● The case for Investing in Africa and the Middle East
● The market outlook for Africa and the Middle East
● Investec Africa & Middle East Fund
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Investec Asset ManagementDistinctly African but with a global perspective
● Independently managed investment specialist, wholly owned subsidiary of Investec Group
● Founded in South Africa in 1991 by current leadership
● $94bn under management
● Largest manager of third party assets in Africa with approximately $41bn of client assets invested in the African continent
● Distinctly African but with a global perspective
DistributionInvestments and DistributionStaff numbers exclude temps and contractors *All AUM data as at 31 March 2011Staff data as at 28 February 2011
Assets Under Management*
Southern Africa: $45.0bn
UK & Offshore: $49.4bn
Total: $94.4bn
Southern AfricaStaff: 337Investment professionals: 57
UKStaff: 260Investment professionals: 71
AmericasStaff: 14 Asia Pacific
Hong Kong: 16Taiwan: 20Australia: 3
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Frontier investments are among our core capabilities
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A Summary of our Frontier Markets Business
South Africa (SA)
Sub Sahara Africa (ex - SA) North Africa
MiddleEast
Equity
Public Equity
Pan Africa Equity Custom Pan Africa Equity Mandates Africa Opportunities Equity
Cape Town Cape TownCape Town
üüü
üüü
üüü
ûûû
Middle East North Africa Equity Cape Town and London û û ü ü
Africa Middle East Equity Cape Town and London ü ü ü ü
Other Public Equity
Domestic Botswana and Namibia Mandates Botswana and Namibia û ü û û
Private Equity
Investec Africa Frontier Private Equity Fund Cape Town ü ü ü û
Fixed Income
Domestic Botswana and Namibia Mandates Botswana and Namibia û ü û û
Emerging Markets Debt (Africa Portion) Cape Town and London û ü ü ü
Credit Opportunities (Africa ex SA Portion) Cape Town û ü ü û
Total Investec Frontier Markets Business
Source: Investec Asset Management, September 2010*Based on capital commitments as at September 2010 and earmarked Africa (ex SA) allocation
IAM Location
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A Summary of our Frontier Market Fund Range
Investec Africa Opportunities
Fund
Investec Africa & Middle East Equity Fund
Investec Middle East & North Africa Equity
Fund Investec Pan Africa Fund
Investec Africa Fund
Investec Africa Frontier Private
Equity Fund
Typical stock holdings
20-60 40-60 25-50 40-60 35-45 8-10
Hedging for currency/ asset allocation
Case by case
Minimum market capitalisation of stocks
USD100m USD100m USD100m USD20m+ USD20m+Normally Equity Value USD 20 –
USD 100m
Use of unlisted equities
Fund StructureLuxembourg
UCITSIIILuxembourg
UCITSIIILuxembourg
UCITSIIIGuernsey “B”
SchemeGuernsey “B”
Scheme
Guernsey Limited
Partnership
Capacity Status Open Open Open Open Closed Closed
Dealing Frequency Daily Daily Daily Monthly Monthly Illiquid
Source: Investec Asset Management, 31 August 2010. These are internal parameters and subject to change, not necessarily with notification to investors. The above shows the Fund investment strategies currently run by Investec Asset Management’s Frontier Team. The Fund(s) may not have been registered, verified or approved for marketing by the relevant supervisory authorities outside of the Funds’ domicile. Please visit www.investecassetmanagement.com/registrations to check registrations by country. Details of these Funds may only be distributed, disseminated, forwarded or have its contents disclosed in accordance with local marketing regulations. Responsibility for compliance with such regulations shall be your sole responsibility.
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-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2011YTD
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Since inception*
(ann)
Investec Pan Africa Fund MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) TR USD MSCI World TR USD
Track record for our Pan Africa less liquid strategyPerformance as at 31 March 2011, net of fees
* Inception date: 30 November 2005 Past performance figures are not audited and are not indicative of future performance, which may varySource: Lipper to 31.03.11, NAV based (inclusive of all annual management fees but excluding any initial charge) gross income reinvested, in US dollars. Performance shown is of A shares and would have been lower had any initial charge been included. Returns to individual investors will vary in accordance with their personal tax status and tax domicile. The Fund has not been registered, verified or approved for marketing by the relevant supervisory authorities outside of the Fund’s domicile. Details of the Fund may only be distributed, disseminated, forwarded or have its contents disclosed in accordance with local marketing regulations. Responsibility for compliance with such regulations shall be your sole responsibility.
Calendar performance (in USD) as at 31 March 2011
Investec Pan Africa Fund -11.5% 24.8% 35.7% -46.3% 55.4% 20.0% 7.8%
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) TR USD 2.1% 19.2% 79.0% -53.2% 39.8% 32.6% 13.9%
MSCI World TR USD 4.9% 12.3% 30.8% -40.3% 9.6% 20.7% 4.2%
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The markets of Africa and the Middle East
South Africa
Swaziland
NamibiaBotswanaZimbabwe
Zambia
MauritiusTanzania
KenyaUganda
Nigeria
Ghana Cameroon
Cape Verde
Morocco TunisiaE
Sudan
BVMAC planned for Gabon
Angola stock exchange proposedAlgeria re-vamping its bourse
Benin
Burkina Faso
Guinea Bissau
Cote D’Ivoire
Mali
Niger
Senegal
Togo
BRVM
Malawi
Rwanda
Moçambique
Libya
Source: Bloomberg and African Alliance Securities Research, December 2010
Number of companies
Market Capitalisation (US$ Billion)
Date established
Bahrain 50 18.5 1987
Botswana 21 4.1 1989
BRVM 39 6.9 1998
Cameroon 1 – 2003
Cape Verde 4 – 2005
Egypt 287 54.5 1888
Ghana 34 4.7 1991
Jordan 272 29.7 1999
Kenya 55 14.3 1954
Kuwait 209 118.9 1962
Lebanon 12 11.0 1995
Malawi 14 1.4 1996
Mauritius 82 5.6 1989
Morocco 73 68.0 1929
Namibia 7 1.2 1992
Nigeria 225 51.2 1960
Oman 78 20.3 1988
Qatar 44 123.3 1997
Saudi Arabia 135 354.2 1990
South Africa 392 535.5 1887
Swaziland 4 0.2 1999
Tanzania 9 1.2 1998
Tunisia 55 10.3 1969
UAE 136 106.0 2000
Uganda 5 0.9 1998
Zambia 19 2.9 1994
Zimbabwe 94 3.6 1974
Total 2.356 1,548
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
Egypt
UAE
Turkey
Qatar
Oman
Lebanon
KuwaitJordan
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia
... from Johannesburg to Jordan
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Africa and the Middle East in context
Area Share Population Share GDP Share
(mkm2) (% of Total) (Bn) (% of Total) ($Bn) (% of Total)Pan Africa 42 29% 1.0 14% 1,432 3%Middle East 6 4% 0.3 4% 2,155 4%
Africa Middle East ("AME") 48 33% 1.3 18% 3,587 6%Other Frontier Markets 18 12% 1.0 15% 2,680 5%
Total Frontier Markets 66 46% 2.3 33% 6,267 11%MSCI Emerging Markets (excluding AME) 47 32% 3.6 53% 12,943 23%Developed Markets 32 22% 0.9 13% 37,976 66%World 145 100% 6.8 100% 57,186 100%
Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009; Area: World Bank 2008
Area Share Population Share GDP Share
(mkm2) (% of Total) (Bn) (% of Total) ($Bn) (% of Total)Pan Africa 42 29% 1.0 14% 1,432 3%Middle East 6 4% 0.3 4% 2,155 4%
Africa Middle East ("AME") 48 33% 1.3 18% 3,587 6%Other Frontier Markets 18 12% 1.0 15% 2,680 5%
Total Frontier Markets 66 46% 2.3 33% 6,267 11%MSCI Emerging Markets (excluding AME) 47 32% 3.6 53% 12,943 23%Developed Markets 32 22% 0.9 13% 37,976 66%World 145 100% 6.8 100% 57,186 100%
Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009; Area: World Bank 2008Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009; Area: World Bank 2008
Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009; Area: World Bank 2008
Area Share Population Share GDP Share
(mkm2) (% of Total) (Bn) (% of Total) ($Bn) (% of Total)Pan Africa 42 29% 1.0 14% 1,432 3%Middle East 6 4% 0.3 4% 2,155 4%
Africa Middle East ("AME") 48 33% 1.3 18% 3,587 6%Other Frontier Markets 18 12% 1.0 15% 2,680 5%
Total Frontier Markets 66 46% 2.3 33% 6,267 11%MSCI Emerging Markets (excluding AME) 47 32% 3.6 53% 12,943 23%Developed Markets 32 22% 0.9 13% 37,976 66%World 145 100% 6.8 100% 57,186 100%
Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009; Area: World Bank 2008
Area Share Population Share GDP Share
(mkm2) (% of Total) (Bn) (% of Total) ($Bn) (% of Total)Pan Africa 42 29% 1.0 14% 1,432 3%Middle East 6 4% 0.3 4% 2,155 4%
Africa Middle East ("AME") 48 33% 1.3 18% 3,587 6%Other Frontier Markets 18 12% 1.0 15% 2,680 5%
Total Frontier Markets 66 46% 2.3 33% 6,267 11%MSCI Emerging Markets (excluding AME) 47 32% 3.6 53% 12,943 23%Developed Markets 32 22% 0.9 13% 37,976 66%World 145 100% 6.8 100% 57,186 100%
Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009; Area: World Bank 2008
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Growing faster than most other regions of the World
Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank World Development Indicators; McKinsey Global Institute, June 2010
African annual real GDP, 2008$ billions
Compound annualgrowth rate, %
Compound annual real GDP, 2000 - 08%, constant exchange rates
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Africa: Rising labour productivity and household consumption
Five year moving average of annual labour-productivity growth
Source: Groningen database, BCG analysis
CAGR1980 – 2000
(%)
CAGR 2000 – 2008 (%)
3.5 7.7
-0.4 2.8
1.7 1.5
1.5 1.0
Brazil, China and India
AfricaUnited States
Western Europe
1980 1990 20082000
The consumer sector is already more than 50% of all industries in Africa
Source: Global Insight; United Nations Conference on Trade and Development; McKinsey Global Institute, June 2010
Brazil, China and IndiaAfrica
United States
Western Europe
Labour productivity growth (%)
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Africa’s quality of life metrics are noticeably improving
● Infant mortality: Almost halved from 1960 to present● Immunisation rates: More than doubled to 73% from 1985 to 2010● Primary school completion: From 50% in 1999 to 63% in 2010● Life expectancy: From 41 years in 1960 to 52 in 2007, notwithstanding HIV Aids● Mobile cellular subscriptions: From 1% in 1998 to 32% in 2008
Sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2030Real GDP per capita, 2009 US dollars
Source: IMF WEO, Standard Chartered Research, Other sources: McKinsey Global Institute, June 2010
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0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Tur
key
Qat
ar
LAT
AM
Rus
sia
Sau
di
Ara
bia
EM
EA
Glo
bal
EM UA
E
Kuw
ait
NJA
Ch
ina
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Kuw
ait
Rus
sia
Qat
ar
UA
E
Sau
di
Ara
bia
Ch
ina
EM
EA
NJA
Glo
bal
EM
Tur
key
LAT
AM
US
MENA: Strong balance sheets and demographics
Young demographics
Government Debt (% of GDP) 2010E
Private Sector Debt (% of GDP) 2010E
Source: Central bank data, Global Insight, Deutsche Bank research
Attractive debt levels Egyptian population (Total million)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008
Egypt Population
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 plus
Age
Population (million)
Male Female
Saudi Arabia Population
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 plus
Age
Population (million)
Male Female
Saudi Arabian population (Total million)
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Summary of case for investing in Africa
● Africa is a large continent, both in terms of size and population, with huge resources
– Although it has an abundance of resources, it is not a commodity derivative - the GDP composition of its major markets, including South Africa, Kenya, Egypt and Nigeria, have a substantial service sector component
– The continent has experienced sustained political and economic reforms and substantial improvements in the quality of governance
– Levels of African sovereign debt have been falling, and are lower than their developed market peers
– Africa has outpaced world GDP growth since 2001 with declining inflation and interest rates over this period
● This offers a very attractive investment opportunity for a variety of compelling reasons
– Most countries operate from a low economic base with penetration of many services relatively low
– The capital structure of many African businesses tend to be unlevered
– There is a dearth of suppliers of capital to capitalise on the opportunity
● As a result, Africa is starting to reap the benefits
– We believe peace and democracy is dawning on the Continent, overcoming occasional pockets of unrest
– Africans are generally more positive about the continent
– Private capital flows to Africa have been positive
– The economies are more integrated with the rest of the world
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Summary of case for investing in the Middle East
● The Middle East is changing positively:
– Peaceful revolution in Egypt and Tunisia – should lead to more accountable governments
– Saudi Arabia – Pre-emptive reforms by the monarchy as the younger generation demands representation
– (The uprisings in Libya and Bahrain so far seem to involve tribal and sectarian undertones)
– Short term volatility in Middle East markets as the region moves away from ‘one-man ‘rule
● This strengthens the long term case for the Middle East: a large market, with a young population and huge resources
● The Middle East offers various investment opportunities:
– Consumer growth: Young, increasingly affluent population as the Middle East develops and attracts talent
– Infrastructure: GCC countries must focus on non-oil sectors and address lack of power/water infrastructure
– Industrial expansion: A low cost producer of many essential goods, with ever growing markets in the East
– Liberalising markets: Restricted markets gradually allowing foreign access, eventually boosting flows
– Liberalising culture: Emancipation from large family homes boosting urban development
● The Middle East is and will remain economically sound
– Strong balance sheets, low debt to GDP
– Accumulated wealth reduces sensitivity to incremental changes in the oil price
– (Dubai debt crisis was no surprise, is being resolved and was never a reflection on the wider region as a whole)
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Outlook amid political uncertainty
● Sub-Saharan Africa:
– Nigeria elections were mostly smooth; investors to focus on economic growth, reform
– Other holdings in Sub-Saharan Africa unlikely to see MENA-type unrest in the foreseeable future
● North Africa:
– Post-revolution Egypt:
– Short term weakness in corporate earnings, a result of disruption in Q1 2011
– Election scenarios: Pro-business Islamists compete with pro-business secularists in an environment in which populist rhetoric is ‘flavour of the day’
– Longer term, the revolution should prove a very positive development, curbing corruption and energising the youth. Policy changes will be measured and will take growth and FDI into consideration
● Arabian Gulf:
– Bahrain unrest now under control, arguably had sectarian roots
– Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE are unlikely to see similar unrest; small, mostly expat populations
– Saudi Gov’t has so far prevented demonstrations and has taken measures to support the equity market
– Though richer, Saudi Arabia has parallels with Egypt – a young, increasingly educated population
– We are cautious of Saudi Arabia in the short term as the equity market reflects uninterrupted stability
– Longer term, Saudi Arabia has a breadth of companies and the resources to grow its industrial base
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An experienced investment team focused on emerging and frontier markets
Name Function LocationInvestec
ExperienceIndustry
Experience
Frontier Markets Team 74 180
Chris Derksen Head of Frontier Markets Strategies Cape Town 5 10
Direct Public Equity Team 54 81
Roelof Horne Principal & Portfolio Manager Cape Town 15 15
Malcolm Gray Portfolio Manager Cape Town 11 11
Julien Veron Equity Analyst Cape Town 4 17
Mishnah Seth Equity Analyst Cape Town 6 8
Edem Lassey Equity Analyst Cape Town 2 8
Alphonse Ndzinge Equity Analyst Cape Town 5 7
Tarek Shahin Equity Analyst London 3 7
Lazarus Shigwedha Equity Analyst Windhoek 4 4
Adriaan Dippenaar Equity Analyst Cape Town 2 2
Carol-Jean Harward Equity Analyst Gaborone 2 2
Direct Private Equity and Co-Investment Team 15 60
Gerben Dijkstra Private Equity Principal Cape Town 3 10
Andrew Richardson Private Equity Principal Johannesburg 4 17
Mark Jennings Private Equity Principal Johannesburg 2 12
William Alexander Private Equity Principal Cape Town 4 10
Francois van der Spuy Co-Investment Principal London 2 11
Asset Allocation Team - 29
Kemal Ahmed Principal & Portfolio Manager Cape Town - 22
Justin Barton Investment Analyst London - 7
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Our investment philosophyWe invest with a private equity mindset:
● Fundamental, on-the-ground research
● Long term approach to value creation
● Approach any investment as a partnership with company management
We identify potential opportunities by:
● Using the Investec business network
● Regular visits to markets and companies: over 170 country visits and 1,400 company visits¹ since 2005
We buy companies when:
● Our fundamental research confirms significant latent value over the medium to long term
We sell when:
● Management actions disappoint and significant better value can be found elsewhere
● Valuation changes to the extent that sustainable returns of 15%+ seem unlikely
● Changes in economies / regulations have a major negative impact on the operating environment of the company
1: For Investment Team as a whole
Page 20 | CONFIDENTIAL 05998
Nigeria 33.8%
Qatar 16.9%
U.A.E.14.4%
South Africa9.0%
Egypt8.5%
Turkey7.4%
Kenya3.2%
Zimbabwe2.5% Others
4.2%
Our investment process aims to identify high quality companies with high return potential
Companies elsewhere Junior Plus Senior International Bourses
Eg. London, AIM, TSX, etc.
AME companies listed in Frontier markets
27 Bourses, 2,700+ securities
Size, liquidity, 50% of NAV based in AMESize, liquidity, foreign restrictions
70+ securities250-350 securities
Frontier Investment TeamMacro + Strategy Team Inputs
IAM Industry Specialist as Needed
Analysis and Research Database
Equity Ideas
Portfolio Manager
AME Fund
Country and Company Visits
Investment Shortlist
Fund
Universe
Filter
Result of Bottom up Process
As at end of March 2011
Page 21 | CONFIDENTIAL 05998
Nigeria 33.8%
Qatar 16.9%
U.A.E.14.4%
South Africa9.0%
Egypt8.5%
Turkey7.4%
Kenya3.2%
Zimbabwe2.5% Others
4.2%
Financials, 27.0%
Consumer Goods, 7.8%
Industrials, 6.7%
Oil & Gas, 6.5%
Telecommunications, 4.9%
Consumer Services, 2.5%
Utilities, 2.0%
Health Care, 1.9%Others , 0.4%
Investec Africa & Middle East FundInvestment exposure as at 31 March 2011
Sector weightings*Country of listing*
The cash content of the Fund as at 31.03.11: 40.3%The portfolio is actively managed and may change significantly over a short period of time*As a percentage of the equity holdingsThis data is preliminary data.
Page 22 | CONFIDENTIAL 05998
Company Sector % Country of Risk
Zenith Bank Financial Services 4.3 Nigeria
First Gulf Bank Financial Services 3.3 United Arab Emirates
Skye Bank Financial Services 3.2 Nigeria
Access Bank Nigeria Financial Services 3.1 Nigeria
Union National Bank Financial Services 2.8 United Arab Emirates
The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time. This is not a buy or sell recommendation for any particular security. Data as at 31.03.11
Investec Africa & Middle East FundTop 5 holdings
Page 23 | CONFIDENTIAL 05998
Investec GSF Africa & Middle East Fund DetailsPerformance as at 31 March 2011, net of fees
Performance
Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future and there is no guarantee that this investment will make profits; losses can be made.Source: Lipper to 31.03.11, NAV based (inclusive of all annual management fees but excluding any initial charge), gross income reinvested, in US dollars. Performance would be lower had initial charges been included and will vary between different share classes dependant upon their applicable charges. Returns to individual investors will vary in accordance with their personal tax status and tax domicile.* Inception date 30.04.08
Investec GSF Africa & Middle East -9.15 -4.8 33.96 -0.9 42.1 22.0
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
YTD 1 year 2 years p.a. Since Inception p.a.
2009 2010
Per
cent
age
gro
wth
Investec GSF Africa & Middle East
Page 24 | CONFIDENTIAL 05998
Important information
This communication is not for general public distribution. If you are a private investor and receive it as part of a general circulation, please contact us at +44 (0)20 7597 1900.
The value of this investment, and any income generated from it, will be affected by changes in interest rates, general market conditions and other political, social and economic developments, as well as by specific matters relating to the assets in which it invests. Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future and there is no guarantee that this investment will make profits; losses may be made.
All the information contained in this communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. This is not a buy, sell or hold recommendation for any particular security. The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time.
This communication is provided for general information only. It is not an invitation to make an investment nor does it constitute an offer for sale. The full documentation that should be considered before making an investment, including the prospectus and simplified prospectus or offering memorandum, which set out the fund specific risks, is available from Investec Asset Management.
This communication should not be distributed to private customers who are resident in countries where the Fund is not registered for sale or in any other circumstances where its distribution is not authorised or is unlawful. Please visit www.investecassetmanagement.com/registrations to check registrations by country. In Switzerland, the Africa & Middle East Fund’s Simplified Prospectus, Prospectus and Report & Accounts may be obtained free of charge from the Swiss Representative and Paying Agent, RBC Dexia Investor Services Bank S.A., Badenerstrasse 567, P.O. Box 101, CH-8066 Zurich.
In the USA, this communication should only be read by institutional investors, professional financial advisers and, at their exclusive discretion, their eligible clients, but must not be distributed to US Persons.
THIS INVESTMENT IS NOT FOR SALE TO US PERSONS.
Telephone calls may be recorded for training and quality assurance purposes. Issued by Investec Asset Management, May 2011.