09 presentation apei 1126 - asia securities forumsep 22, 2017 · policy rate (%) policy rate is...

Opening

Presented by Karman PamurahardjoChairman of Indonesia Securities Companies Association (APEI)

Indonesia Market ReportAsia Securities Forum 2017

Overview

� Economic At a Glance� Capital Market Performance:

v Stock Marketv Bond Marketv Mutual Fund Market

� Market Development

Economic At A Glance

Source: Badan Pusat Statistik, World Bank

755 893 919 917 891 861 932

494

6.2 6.2 6.0 5.6

5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0

01234567

-

250

500

750

1,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H2017

GDP

GDP (US$ Bn) GDP Growth (%, YoY)

96 110 113

99 112

106 116

129

8,991 9,068 9,670

12,250 12,436

13,794 13,436

13,492

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

-

50

100

150 Forex Reserve & Exchange Rate

Forex Reserve (US$) USD/IDR (end of period)

7.0

3.8 4.3

8.4 8.4

3.4 3.03.7

7.1 6.6 6.1 6.2 5.9 6.25.6 5.3

-

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q2017

Inflasi & Unemployment Rate

Inflation Unemployment rate (%)Surplus Deficit

158

204 190 183

176 150 145

123

136 177 192 187 178

143 136 116

20

60

100

140

180

220

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q2017

Trade Balance (US$ Bn)

Export Import

27 -2 -4 -23 9

7

22

Economic at A Glance: NOW vs CRISIS

IDR Depreciation (%)Depreciation rate is lower than 1998 & 2008

Inflation (%)Inflation controlled under the revised budget

target

Policy Rate (%)Policy rate is significantly lower

External Debt/GDPSlightly higher than 2008, but significantly

lower than 1998

Foreign Reserves (USD Billion)Significantly higher than 1998 & 2008, ample to cover 8.2 months of import and external

debt repayment

Government Debt/GDP (%)Continue to decline and allocated to

productive sectors

External Debt (Public & Private) to FX Reserve Ratio

Significantly lower than 1998 crisis

100.0%27.4%

May 20172008

8.6x

2008 Q2-2017

3.1x 2.7x

116.8%

2008 Q2-2017

33.2% 34.5%

1998 19981998

2561,111

5,900.85

1998 2008 Sep-17

3

3.8

30

Jul-17

2008

1998

Non-Performing Loan (NPL, %)NPL level is below the maximum threshold

of 5%

129.40

50.20

17.40

Sep-17

2008

1998

-0.4%

-35%

-197%

Sep-17

2008

1998

JCI Index (IHSG)JCI is significantly higher than 1998 & 2008

28.1%

60

9.25 4.25

1998 2008 Sep-17

55.6710.27 3.72

1998 2008 Sep-17

Source: Bank Indonesia

Stock Market Performance

JCI

Source: Yahoo Finance

-3.4% 2.7% 3.9% 4.1%

6.8% 7.0% 7.3% 9.2% 10.6% 11.1% 11.8%

18.2% 19.1% 19.7% 19.7%

27.3%

YTD Return (Jan 3rd 2017 – Sept 29th 2017)

Hongkong: HSCI

Vietnam: HOSE

India: NIFTY 50

Philippines: PSE

South Korea: KOSPI

Indonesia: JCI

Singapore: STI

Germany: Dax

France: CAC 40

Malaysia: KLCI

Thailand: SET

China: SCI

Australia: ASX

Japan: N225

UK: FTSE 100

Laos: LSX

Source: Bloomberg, World Federation of Exchange

YTD Comparison By Country

-5.5% -3.6% -1.9% -1.7%

0.3% 2.3% 4.5% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2% 8.1% 8.6%

11.2% 18.1%

23.0% 30.1%

Market Cap % Change (2015-2016)

Vietnam: HSE

Thailand: SET

Indonesia: IDX

Taiwan: TWSE

Euro: Euronext

Australia: ASX

India: NSE

Philippines: PSENew Zealand:

NZX

South Korea: KRX

Singapore: SGX

Hongkong: HKX

Japan: JPX

Malaysia: BM

China: SSE

China: SZSE

Source: Indonesia Stock Exchange

Stock Market Performance

131 135 115 124 117

102

137

96

534 546

469 509 483

418

558

481

106 113 122122

213 222264

312

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q2017

Transaction

Value (US$ Bn) Value Daily Avg (US$ Mn) Daily Freq (x k)

Anl FY128

420440

459483

506 521 537556

361

390

427

344

420

353

428 486

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q2017

Listed Companies Market Cap (US$ Bn)


Listed Company Progress

420440

459483

506521

537

350

400

450

500

550

2010 2011 20122013201420152016

IDX

778773 776 776 775

769

757

750

760

770

780

790

2010 2011 20122013201420152016

SGX

894 931 954 953995

1081

1182

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

SSE

1169

1411

1540 15361618

17461870

900

1150

1400

1650

1900

2010 2011 2012 2013201420152016

SZSE

956940

920910 905 902 903

850

900

950

1000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152016

Malaysia

1,999

2,079

2,0562,055

2,0732,108

2,095

1,9001,9502,0002,0502,1002,150

2010 2011 2012 2013201420152016

ASX

CAGR: 3.6%CAGR: 0.7%

CAGR: 4.1% CAGR: 6.9%

CAGR: -0.8%

CAGR: -0.4%

Source: Indonesia Stock Exchange, World Federation of Exchange

Listed Company Progress Comparison By Country


Market Capitalization By Sectors

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 sep 17

3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 3.2% 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 1.7%

15.7% 11.8% 7.8% 6.1% 4.9% 3.3% 5.0% 4.7%

7.6% 7.6%

8.4% 7.7% 7.3% 5.9% 6.9% 7.2%

8.2% 10.2% 9.0% 8.1% 7.1%

6.2% 6.8% 5.9%

14.8% 16.9% 18.7% 20.3%

19.4% 23.2% 22.3% 21.7%

3.7% 4.0% 5.4% 5.6% 6.9% 7.8% 7.4% 6.4%

14.1% 11.9% 13.4% 13.6% 14.2% 13.1% 12.5% 12.9%

24.8% 24.4% 23.5% 22.8% 25.1% 25.3% 25.7% 28.7%

7.9% 9.9% 10.… 12.5% 12.0% 12.8% 10.9% 10.8% Trade, Service & Investment

Finance

Infrastructure, Utilities, and Transportation

Property, Real Estate and Construction

Consumer Goods

Miscellaneous Industry

Basic Industry and Chemicals

Mining

Agriculture(18)

(31)

(62)

(41)

(34)

(49)

(39)

(72)

(99)

(15)

(29)

(59)

(42)

(34)

(47)

(32)

(70)

(96)

(17)

(37)

(59)

(42)

(37)

(53)

(43)

(74)

(103)

(20)

(39)

(60)

(41)

(38)

(54)

(47)

(78)

(110)

(21)

(41)

(65)

(41)

(38)

(54)

(51)

(86)

(113)

(21)(43)

(64)

(42)

(38)

(59)

(53)

(87)

(118)

(21)(43)

(66)

(42)

(39)

(63)

(56)

(89)

(122)

(18)(44)

(68)(41)

(45)

(65)

(60)

(89)

(130)

(): # of Listed Company

322 294 281

321 364

434

536

601

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q2017

千


# of Investor Progress


-

20

40

60

80

100

57 58 59 57 63 63

43 42 41 43 37 37

Transaction

Domestic (% total Val) Foreign (% total val)

-

20

40

60

80

100

41 37 36 36 46 48

59 63 64 64 54 52

Share Ownership

Domestic (%) Foreign (%)

Investor Breakdown

AS of Sep 2017


128 140

156 165

179 192

202 215

227 240

14 16 19 2125

2933

39

48

62

0

21

42

63

84

105

-

63

126

189

252

50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%

Value # of Broker Others

Value (IDR Tn)

# of Active Broker

Scope of Transaction Value by Brokers


27%

73%

Breakdown by # of Broker

Foreign Local

57%

43%

Bank Related Non Bank Related

13%

87%


56.2%

44%

Breakdown by Transaction Value

Foreign Local

77%

23%


27%

73%


September 4 – 29 , 2017

Brokers Breakdown

As of September 2017

Corporate Bond Government Bond

IDRDenominated

USDDenominated

(TrillionRp) (MillionUSD) (TrillionRp) (MillionUSD) (X)

2005 57.76 105.00 0.11 0.02 21

2006 61.51 105.00 0.14 0.01 11

2007 79.07 105.00 0.28 0.04 63

2008 73.01 N /A 0.22 0.07 50

2009 88.90 N /A 0.16 N /A 41

2010 115.84 N /A 0.36 N /A 61

2011 148.46 80.00 0.51 0.36 73

2012 189.44 100.00 0.65 0.11 103

2013 220.58 100.00 0.75 0.07 81

2014 225.88 100.00 0.69 0.04 91

2015 252.30 100.00 0.76 0.03 91

2016 252.30 100.00 0.90 0.03 98

2017 368.44 47.50 1.22 0.01 118

Year IDRDenominated

Outstanding DailyAverag eVolumeTransaction

VolumeFreq.

USD Denominated IDR

DenominatedUSD

Denominated(TrillionRp) (MillionUSD) (TrillionRp) (MillionUSD) (X)

2005 399.86 N /A 2.64 N /A 100

2006 418.75 N /A 2.96 N /A 134

2007 477.75 N /A 4.37 N /A 227

2008 525.69 N /A 3.89 N /A 206

2009 581.75 N /A 3.31 N /A 218

2010 641.21 N /A 5.80 N /A 329

2011 723.61 N /A 7.95 N /A 433

2012 820.27 N /A 8.11 N /A 552

2013 995.25 N /A 7.60 N /A 492

2014 1,209.96 N /A 11.63 N /A 653

2015 1,425.99 N /A 13.82 N /A 691

2016 1,773.28 N /A 14.74 N /A 861

2017 2,046.93 N /A 16.55 N /A 927

Year IDRDenominated

Freq.

Outstanding DailyAverag eVolumeTransaction

USDDenominated

Volume

Bond Trading Activities


Foreign819.37

40.03%

Bank581.68

28.42%

Insurance Company

257.96 12.60%

Others117.49 5.74%

Mutual Fund96.35 4.71%

Pension Fund87.27 4.26%

Individual55.53 2.71%

BI31.30 1.53%

Mutual Fund99.29

27.95%

Pension Fund77.58

21.84%

Financial Inst70.06

19.72%

Insurance63.81

17.96%

Others12.44

3.50%

Corporate16.89

4.76%

Individual10.54

2.97%

Foundation3.95 1.11%

Securities Company

0.65 0.18%

Corporate Bond Ownership Government Bond Ownership

Source : Indonesia Central Securities Depository (KSEI), Indonesian Debt Management Office (DJPU)

As of September 2017 (in Trillion IDR)

Bond Ownership Distribution

353 356364

370 373383

391

407415

Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

IDR Trillion

Mutual Fund - AUM

Equity Rp114.01 T

27.99%

Capital Protection Fund

Rp90.82 T22.30%

Fixed IncomeRp90.82 T

22.30%

Money MarketRp57.10 T

14.02%

MixedRp24.92 T

6.12%

Sharia-EquityRp10.70 T

2.63%

ETF-Fixed IncomeRp5.15 T1.26%

Sharia-Fixed IncomeRp1.84 T0.45%

ETF-EquityRp2.09 T

0.51%

Sharia-ProtectionRp2.65 T

0.65%

Sharia-MixedRp1.68 T0.41%Sharia-Money

MarketRp0.08 T

0.02%

IndexRp1.80 T0.44%

Sharia-IndexRp3.59 T0.88%

ETF-IndexRp0.10 T0.02%

Total NAV of Mutual Fund

Rp407.35Trillion

As of September 22, 2017

Mutual Fund – Asset Allocation

uBrokerage and Underwriting Fee

uMargin Trading vs Adjusted Net Working Capital

uLicensing of Securities Companies Associationu Recognition by Regulator

u License to arrange Continuous Education for BoD and BoC

uS-INVEST

uE-VOTING

uTax Amnesty

uMER by APG on AML/CFT

Market Development

Thank You

09 presentation apei 1126 - asia securities forumsep 22, 2017 · policy rate (%) policy rate is...

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