1 1. 2 2 prawdziwa klêska optymistów dopiero nadchodzi the real surrender of the optimists is...

22

Prawdziwa klêska optymistów dopiero nadchodziThe real surrender of the optimists is still to happenThe real surrender of the optimists is still to happen

17 APRIL 200917 APRIL 200917 APRIL 200917 APRIL 2009

The Survival of the FittestThe Survival of the FittestThe Survival of the FittestThe Survival of the Fittest

Juergen NusserJuergen Nusser

Steel Markets 2009Steel Markets 2009The Survival of the FittestThe Survival of the Fittest


PRESIDENTPRESIDENTSteel Markets 2009Steel Markets 2009

The Survival of the FittestThe Survival of the Fittest

VICE PRESIDENTVICE PRESIDENT

33

HUTNICTWO 2009 KATOVICE 17 APRIL 2009JUERGEN NUSSER: THE SURVIVAL OF THE FITTESTHUTNICTWO 2009 KATOVICE 17 APRIL 2009JUERGEN NUSSER: THE SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST

CZECH REPUBLICCZECH REPUBLIC

DENMARKDENMARK

FINLANDFINLANDASSOCIATION OF FINNISH ASSOCIATION OF FINNISH TECHNICAL TRADERS (TKL)TECHNICAL TRADERS (TKL)

HUNGARYHUNGARYASSOCIATION OF HUNGARIANASSOCIATION OF HUNGARIANSTEEL- AND METALTRADERS (MAFESTEEL- AND METALTRADERS (MAFE))

UNITED KINGDOMUNITED KINGDOMNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF STEEL NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF STEEL STOCKHOLDERSSTOCKHOLDERS

PORTUGALPORTUGALASSOCIAÇÃO PORTUGUESA ASSOCIAÇÃO PORTUGUESA DOS GROSSISTAS DE AÇOS DOS GROSSISTAS DE AÇOS METAIS E FERRAMENTESMETAIS E FERRAMENTES

SLOVENIASLOVENIA

POLANDPOLANDPOLSKA UNIA DYSTRYBUTORÓW STALIPOLSKA UNIA DYSTRYBUTORÓW STALI

SWEDENSWEDENSTÅL- OCHSTÅL- OCHMETALLFÖRENINGENMETALLFÖRENINGEN

SWITZERLANDSWITZERLAND

BELGIUMBELGIUMGROUPEMENT DES MARCHANDS GROUPEMENT DES MARCHANDS DE FER DE BELGIQUEDE FER DE BELGIQUE

UNIÓN DE ALMACENISTAS UNIÓN DE ALMACENISTAS DE HIERROS DE ESPAÑADE HIERROS DE ESPAÑA

SPAINSPAIN

ASOCIACION ESPAÑOLA ASOCIACION ESPAÑOLA DE TRANSFORMADORES DE PRODUCTOS DE TRANSFORMADORES DE PRODUCTOS PLANOS SIDERURGICOSPLANOS SIDERURGICOS

GERMANYGERMANYBUNDESVERBAND DEUTSCHER STAHLHANDELBUNDESVERBAND DEUTSCHER STAHLHANDELEDELSTAHLHANDELS-VEREINIGUNGEDELSTAHLHANDELS-VEREINIGUNG

AUSTRIAAUSTRIAFRANCEFRANCEFÉDÉRATION FRANÇAISE DE DISTRIBUTION FÉDÉRATION FRANÇAISE DE DISTRIBUTION DES MÉTAUXDES MÉTAUX

NETHERLANDSNETHERLANDS

ITALYITALYASSOFERMETASSOFERMET

BULGARIABULGARIA

ASOCIATIA ROMANA ASOCIATIA ROMANA A DISTRIBUITOTOLOR DE METALA DISTRIBUITOTOLOR DE METAL

ROMANIAROMANIA

GREECEGREECE

NORWAYNORWAYSTÅL OG STÅL OG METALLGROSSISTENES METALLGROSSISTENES FORENINGFORENING

44


EUROMETAL ORGANIGRAMMENATIONAL ASSOCIATIONS OF STEEL, TUBE AND METALS DISTRIBUTIONNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONS OF STEEL, TUBE AND METALS DISTRIBUTION

EUROMETAL - THE VOICE OF EUROPEAN STEEL DISTRIBUTIONEUROMETAL - THE VOICE OF EUROPEAN STEEL DISTRIBUTIONEUROMETAL - THE VOICE OF EUROPEAN STEEL DISTRIBUTIONEUROMETAL - THE VOICE OF EUROPEAN STEEL DISTRIBUTION

COMMONRESOURCES

COMMONRESOURCES

COMMONINTERESTSCOMMON

INTERESTS

INTERNATIONAL STEELINTERNATIONAL STEELTRADE ASSOCIATIONTRADE ASSOCIATION

EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION OF STEEL SERVICE CENTERSOF STEEL SERVICE CENTERS

STUDY GROUP OF DISTRIBUTORS STUDY GROUP OF DISTRIBUTORS OF STEEL, TUBES AND METALSOF STEEL, TUBES AND METALS

55


WHO IS GOING TO STOP THE FREE FALL

OF THE MARKETS?

WHO IS GOING TO STOP THE FREE FALL

OF THE MARKETS?

OBVIOUSLY THE STEEL PARTY HAS COME TO AN END . . . . . . OBVIOUSLY THE STEEL PARTY HAS COME TO AN END . . . . . . OBVIOUSLY THE STEEL PARTY HAS COME TO AN END . . . . . . OBVIOUSLY THE STEEL PARTY HAS COME TO AN END . . . . . . . . . . . . AFTER FOUR YEARS ON A VERY HIGH LEVEL. . . . . . AFTER FOUR YEARS ON A VERY HIGH LEVEL

AND IT IS NOT A SOFT LANDING BUT A VERY UGLY RECESSION!AND IT IS NOT A SOFT LANDING BUT A VERY UGLY RECESSION!

WHO IS GOING TO STOP THE FREE FALL OF THE MARKETS ?WHO IS GOING TO STOP THE FREE FALL OF THE MARKETS ?WHO IS GOING TO STOP THE FREE FALL OF THE MARKETS ?WHO IS GOING TO STOP THE FREE FALL OF THE MARKETS ?OUR POLITICAL LEADERS ?OUR POLITICAL LEADERS ?

. . . . AND WHAT PRICE ARE THEY WILLING TO PAY ?. . . . AND WHAT PRICE ARE THEY WILLING TO PAY ?

66


INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE PRODUCER PRICES UNEMPLOYMENTINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CONSUMER PRICES EMPLOYMENT

INDUSTRIAL MARKET MARKET PRICES LABOUR MARKET

INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY AND PRICES ARE DOWNDIVING WITH AN UNPRECEDENTED DIMENSION AND SPEEDUNEMPLOYMENT IS EXPLODING WITH COMPARABLE DYNAMICS

RECESSION: SOME BASIC INDICATORS IN THE EURO-ZONERECESSION: SOME BASIC INDICATORS IN THE EURO-ZONERECESSION: SOME BASIC INDICATORS IN THE EURO-ZONERECESSION: SOME BASIC INDICATORS IN THE EURO-ZONERECESSION: A BASIC BUT IMPORTANT LESSONRECESSION: A BASIC BUT IMPORTANT LESSONRECESSION: A BASIC BUT IMPORTANT LESSONRECESSION: A BASIC BUT IMPORTANT LESSON

A MACROECONOMIC RECESSIONA MACROECONOMIC RECESSIONINTENSIFIES STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONINTENSIFIES STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONHARDLY EVER AGAIN REACHING THE FORMER LEVELHARDLY EVER AGAIN REACHING THE FORMER LEVEL

ECONOMIC CYCLEECONOMIC CYCLE

STRUCTURAL CHANGESTRUCTURAL CHANGE

IN MATURE AND SATURATED ECONOMIESIN MATURE AND SATURATED ECONOMIESTHE UPSWINGS AND DOWNSWINGS OF THE MACROECONOMIC CYCLETHE UPSWINGS AND DOWNSWINGS OF THE MACROECONOMIC CYCLESLOW DOWN OR SPEED UP CONTINUOUS STRUCTURAL CHANGESLOW DOWN OR SPEED UP CONTINUOUS STRUCTURAL CHANGE

77


The EU steel market is severely impacted by the recession and will be facing an unprecedented downturn this year. In the first half of 2009 the double-digit y-o-y decline in real consumption registered in Q4’08 and a further stock correction in distribution and at the end-user level will continue: apparent consumption will drop by 29%% y-o-y in Q1'09 and by a further 23% y-o-y in Q2'09; it will continue to decline in the remainder of 2009, albeit at a less dramatic rate; Q4’09 is expected to see some growth compared with the very low Q4’08 level. Following the 15% drop in 2009, some growth in apparent consumption is foreseen for 2010, owing to the absence of a huge stock reduction as seen in 2009.The significant deterioration in economic fundamentals has fully hit the EU steel using industries; the first half of this year will see output falling by 10% y-o-y. The second half is expected to see a gradual easing of the downward trend, but on balance production in the steel using sectors will still fall 7-8% in 2009. Particularly the automotive sector is badly affected by the recession, but also construction, steel tubes and the engineering sectors cannot escape a sharply downward trend. Most sectors will see a mild improvement in 2010.

The EU steel market is severely impacted by the recession and will be facing an unprecedented downturn this year. In the first half of 2009 the double-digit y-o-y decline in real consumption registered in Q4’08 and a further stock correction in distribution and at the end-user level will continue: apparent consumption will drop by 29%% y-o-y in Q1'09 and by a further 23% y-o-y in Q2'09; it will continue to decline in the remainder of 2009, albeit at a less dramatic rate; Q4’09 is expected to see some growth compared with the very low Q4’08 level. Following the 15% drop in 2009, some growth in apparent consumption is foreseen for 2010, owing to the absence of a huge stock reduction as seen in 2009.The significant deterioration in economic fundamentals has fully hit the EU steel using industries; the first half of this year will see output falling by 10% y-o-y. The second half is expected to see a gradual easing of the downward trend, but on balance production in the steel using sectors will still fall 7-8% in 2009. Particularly the automotive sector is badly affected by the recession, but also construction, steel tubes and the engineering sectors cannot escape a sharply downward trend. Most sectors will see a mild improvement in 2010.

EUROFER MARKET REPORT JANUARY 2009EUROFER MARKET REPORT JANUARY 2009

BASICALLY BAD NEWS!BASICALLY BAD NEWS!WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE STEEL SECTOR?WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE STEEL SECTOR?WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE STEEL SECTOR?WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE STEEL SECTOR?

88


UNPRECEDENTED STEEL PRODUCTION CUTS UNPRECEDENTED STEEL PRODUCTION CUTS UNPRECEDENTED STEEL PRODUCTION CUTS UNPRECEDENTED STEEL PRODUCTION CUTS

20082008 Q4/2008Q4/2008 JAN/2009JAN/2009IN % Y-O-YIN % Y-O-Y GLOBAL PRODUCTION = 1.330 KTOGLOBAL PRODUCTION = 1.330 KTO

ALBEIT NOT PREVENTING STEEL PRICES DOWNDIVINGALBEIT NOT PREVENTING STEEL PRICES DOWNDIVING

-5,5 -5,3

1,2

-1,2

2,6 3,7

-1,4 -1,2-3,3

-35,6

-25,0

-7,5

-14,5-11,7

-6,7

-21,6-19,0

-23,9

-51,2

-46,0

-35,6-37,8

2,4

-4,8

-41,4

-24,0

-39,0

-60,0

-50,0

-40,0

-30,0

-20,0

-10,0

0,0

10,0

NAFTA EU-27 NAM JAPAN CHINA INDIA S.AMERICA WORLDWORLD EX

CHINA

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06 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 07 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 08 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 JUNE JULY SEPT OCT NOV DEC 09 JAN FEB EARLY END EARLY END

USD/MT1250

1050

850

650

450

250

AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE PRICE CYCLE ON A GLOBAL SCALEAN EXTREMELY VOLATILE PRICE CYCLE ON A GLOBAL SCALEAN EXTREMELY VOLATILE PRICE CYCLE ON A GLOBAL SCALEAN EXTREMELY VOLATILE PRICE CYCLE ON A GLOBAL SCALE

320

428480

453 465 482 476 468520

550600

720780

810

710

630600

460 480 500


USD/MT1250

1050

850

650

450

250

475500

585610

555580

545 530 545 540

720

900

9651004

845

720

560

460

390342


USD/MT1250

1050

850

650

450

250

580618

673630

579 595 583 580606

720

816

11241168

1210

1135

990

772

595 575550


USD/MT1250

1050

850

650

450

250

600 597 612 630 619649

690716

744 749

820

10501100

1244

1158

909855

820760 762


USD/MT1250

1050

850

650

450

250

483523

613 613 616649

678 670697 713

1130

1199

580520

560675

960

1087

1020

823


USD/MT1250

1050

850

650

450

250

CHINACHINA RUSSIARUSSIA USAUSA BRAZILBRAZIL EU 27EU 27

HOT ROLLED COIL DOMESTIC PRICE EX MILLHOT ROLLED COIL DOMESTIC PRICE EX MILL

HAVE WE ALREADY REACHED THE BOTTOM ?HAVE WE ALREADY REACHED THE BOTTOM ?

1010


2008 20092008 2009

EU 27: IMPACT ON DISTRIBUTION BUSINESSEU 27: IMPACT ON DISTRIBUTION BUSINESSEU 27: IMPACT ON DISTRIBUTION BUSINESSEU 27: IMPACT ON DISTRIBUTION BUSINESSQUARTER 1/2009 COMPARED TO QUARTER 1/2008 QUARTER 1/2009 COMPARED TO QUARTER 1/2008

STEEL FOR INDUSTRIAL USESTEEL FOR INDUSTRIAL USE(SUPPLY CHAIN BUSINESS)(SUPPLY CHAIN BUSINESS)

STEEL FOR GENERAL USESTEEL FOR GENERAL USE(PROXIMITY BUSINESS)(PROXIMITY BUSINESS)

DEMANDDEMAND

- 30%- 30%

- 200 USD- 200 USD

PRICEPRICE

- 55%- 55%

- 500 USD- 500 USD

PRICEPRICE

DEMANDDEMAND

BUT DON'T FORGET:BUT DON'T FORGET:

QUARTER 1/2008 WAS A VERY GOOD ONE !QUARTER 1/2008 WAS A VERY GOOD ONE !

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AS A CONSEQUENCE, ALREADY SINCE 2007AS A CONSEQUENCE, ALREADY SINCE 2007AS A CONSEQUENCE, ALREADY SINCE 2007AS A CONSEQUENCE, ALREADY SINCE 2007

= APPARENT CONSUMPTION= APPARENT CONSUMPTION

= REAL CONSUMPTION= REAL CONSUMPTION + 4,0% + 4,0%

-7,2% -7,2%

- 15,2% - 15,2%

+ 4,4 %+ 4,4 %

- 3,2%- 3,2%

- 8,2% - 8,2%

IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE 2008 DEVELOPMENTSIN THE AFTERMATH OF THE 2008 DEVELOPMENTSREAL STEEL CONSUMPTION MIGHT TURN DOWN EVEN FURTHER IN 2009REAL STEEL CONSUMPTION MIGHT TURN DOWN EVEN FURTHER IN 2009

GROWTH RATES OF EUROPEAN REAL STEEL CONSUMPTION ARE NEGATIVEGROWTH RATES OF EUROPEAN REAL STEEL CONSUMPTION ARE NEGATIVE

2007 ESTIMATE 2008 FORECAST 2009 2007 ESTIMATE 2008 FORECAST 2009

1212


THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: KILLING THE STEEL MARKETS ?THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: KILLING THE STEEL MARKETS ?THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: KILLING THE STEEL MARKETS ?THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: KILLING THE STEEL MARKETS ?

A CENTURY'S MISTAKE . . . HOPEFULLY THE LAST ONE . . .

A CENTURY'S MISTAKE . . . HOPEFULLY THE LAST ONE . . .

AFTER 9-11 ANOTHER TRAUMA AFTER 9-11 ANOTHER TRAUMA

1313


BUT WHAT REALLY HAPPENED IN 2008? BUT WHAT REALLY HAPPENED IN 2008? BUT WHAT REALLY HAPPENED IN 2008? BUT WHAT REALLY HAPPENED IN 2008?

EVERYBODY SEEMS TO NAME THE FINANCIAL CRISIS EVERYBODY SEEMS TO NAME THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE TURMOIL IN THE STEEL MARKETSAS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE TURMOIL IN THE STEEL MARKETS

ACTUALLY WE SAW FOUR PROCESSES AFFECTING THE STEEL MARKET: ACTUALLY WE SAW FOUR PROCESSES AFFECTING THE STEEL MARKET:

A FINANCIAL CRISIS INCLUDING A CREDIT CRUNCH A FINANCIAL CRISIS INCLUDING A CREDIT CRUNCH

A GLOBAL ECONOMIC DOWNTURN INTO A RECESSIONA GLOBAL ECONOMIC DOWNTURN INTO A RECESSION

AN AN EXTREMELYEXTREMELY VOLATILE STEEL PRICE CYCLE VOLATILE STEEL PRICE CYCLE

A STOCK MANAGEMENT TO REDUCE WORKING CAPITALA STOCK MANAGEMENT TO REDUCE WORKING CAPITAL

TWO MACROECONOMIC PROCESSES: TWO MACROECONOMIC PROCESSES:

TWO STEEL SPECIFIC PROCESSES: TWO STEEL SPECIFIC PROCESSES:

THIS IS LARGELY AN ALIBI ARGUMENT!THIS IS LARGELY AN ALIBI ARGUMENT!

1414


RECESSION: CHALLENGE AND CHANCE - MANAGEMENT OPTIONSRECESSION: CHALLENGE AND CHANCE - MANAGEMENT OPTIONSRECESSION: CHALLENGE AND CHANCE - MANAGEMENT OPTIONSRECESSION: CHALLENGE AND CHANCE - MANAGEMENT OPTIONS

What do do?. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .

What do do?. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .

The market will not give credit for yesterday’s success

The experiences of the past are not necessarily the solutions for tomorrow He who does not move in time will be removed in time

1515


RECESSION: CHALLENGE AND CHANCE - MANAGEMENT OPTIONSRECESSION: CHALLENGE AND CHANCE - MANAGEMENT OPTIONSRECESSION: CHALLENGE AND CHANCE - MANAGEMENT OPTIONSRECESSION: CHALLENGE AND CHANCE - MANAGEMENT OPTIONS

What do do?. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .

What do do?. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .

Macroeconomic trends affect different sectors differently

Given the heterogeneous sectors general recommendationsare very limitedBut there are some basiccrash management rules . . . .

1616


OPERATIONALMANAGEMENT

ASSETSMANAGEMENT

FINANCIALMANAGEMENT

SALES GROWTH EBITDA / EBIT / PBT WORKING CAPITAL

CASH FLOWS FROM BUSINESSOPERATION

CAPITAL EMPLOYED INVEST DECISIONS TIME HORIZON

CAPEX CASH OUTDIVESTURES CASH IN.

FINANCIAL DEBT . GEARING RATIO COST OF CAPITAL

WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OFCAPITAL = WACC

FREE CASHFLOWS

DISCOUNTING RATE

ENTERPRISE

VALUE

THE FINANCIAL DEBT PARADOX: HAVING BANKERS LENDING YOU MONEY TODAY IS NO MORE CONSIDERED AS A LIABILITY BUT AS AN ASSET FOR COMPANIES

SEEKING ENTERPRISE VALUE INSTEAD OF SHAREHOLDER VALUE !SEEKING ENTERPRISE VALUE INSTEAD OF SHAREHOLDER VALUE !THE RECESSION HAS REVERSED THE MANAGEMENT PARADIGMATHE RECESSION HAS REVERSED THE MANAGEMENT PARADIGMATHE RECESSION HAS REVERSED THE MANAGEMENT PARADIGMATHE RECESSION HAS REVERSED THE MANAGEMENT PARADIGMA

VALUE CREATIONLEVERS

MANAGEMENTDECISIONS

CASH FLOWSOURCING

VALUINGFREE CASH FLOWS

1717


THE RECESSION HIGH STAKES CASH GAMETHE RECESSION HIGH STAKES CASH GAMETHE RECESSION HIGH STAKES CASH GAMETHE RECESSION HIGH STAKES CASH GAMETHE STEEL BARONS OF THE GLORIOUS PAST ARE ABOUT TO GOTHE STEEL BARONS OF THE GLORIOUS PAST ARE ABOUT TO GO

PLAYING AT FOUR TABLES SIMULTANEOUSLYPLAYING AT FOUR TABLES SIMULTANEOUSLY

COST = LOSSCOST = LOSS

CUTCOSTS

CUTCOSTS

NO COST = PROFITNO COST = PROFIT

INVESTMENT = RISKINVESTMENT = RISK

LIMITCAPEXLIMIT

CAPEX

NO RISK = FUNNO RISK = FUN

DEBT = DEATHDEBT = DEATH

REDUCE WCR

REDUCE WCR

CASH = LIFECASH = LIFE

BUSINESS = DANGERBUSINESS = DANGER

ADAPTPORTFOLIO

ADAPTPORTFOLIO

LESS = MORELESS = MORE

NEEDED TIME NEEDED TIME

1818


1967: ALL YOU NEED1967: ALL YOU NEEDIS LOVEIS LOVE

EUROMETAL POSITIONEUROMETAL POSITIONEUROMETAL POSITIONEUROMETAL POSITION

GENERAL ASSEMBLY FEBRUARY 2009GENERAL ASSEMBLY FEBRUARY 2009

2009: ALL YOU NEED2009: ALL YOU NEEDIS CASHIS CASH

MANAGING FOR FREE CASH FLOWS IN STEEL, TUBES AND METALS DISTRIBUTION & TRADING MANAGING FOR FREE CASH FLOWS IN STEEL, TUBES AND METALS DISTRIBUTION & TRADING

1919


DON'T START A PRICE CYCLE WHEN FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND!DON'T START A PRICE CYCLE WHEN FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND!

STEEL PRODUCTION IS A BASE INDUSTRY AND ONLY EXCEPTIONALLY TRIGGERS THE USE OF STEEL!STEEL PRODUCTION IS A BASE INDUSTRY AND ONLY EXCEPTIONALLY TRIGGERS THE USE OF STEEL!

STEEL PRODUCTION (AND STEEL DISTRIBUTION) ARE A DERIVATIVE BUSINESS!STEEL PRODUCTION (AND STEEL DISTRIBUTION) ARE A DERIVATIVE BUSINESS!

2008 / 2009: LESSONS TO BE FINALLY LEARNED?2008 / 2009: LESSONS TO BE FINALLY LEARNED?2008 / 2009: LESSONS TO BE FINALLY LEARNED?2008 / 2009: LESSONS TO BE FINALLY LEARNED?

AND DON'T START RENEGOTIATIONS OF YEARLY CONTRACTS IN SUCH A NEGATIVE ECONOMIC SCENARIO!AND DON'T START RENEGOTIATIONS OF YEARLY CONTRACTS IN SUCH A NEGATIVE ECONOMIC SCENARIO!

REGULARLY STEEL PRODUCTION IS FULLY DEPENDENT ON THE UPS AND DOWNS OF THE STEEL CONSUMING INDUSTRIESREGULARLY STEEL PRODUCTION IS FULLY DEPENDENT ON THE UPS AND DOWNS OF THE STEEL CONSUMING INDUSTRIES

POOR GDP GROWTH = POOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONPOOR GDP GROWTH = POOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONPOOR GDP GROWTH = POOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONPOOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION = POOR STEEL CONSUMPTIONPOOR GDP GROWTH = POOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONPOOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION = POOR STEEL CONSUMPTIONPOOR GDP GROWTH = POOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONPOOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION = POOR STEEL CONSUMPTIONPOOR STEEL CONSUMPTION = POOR STEEL PRODUCTION

POOR GDP GROWTH = POOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONPOOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION = POOR STEEL CONSUMPTIONPOOR STEEL CONSUMPTION = POOR STEEL PRODUCTION

2020


- EXPORT- EXPORT

STEEL MARKETSTEEL MARKET

STEEL PRODUCTIONSTEEL PRODUCTION

STEEL CONSUMING INDUSTRIESSTEEL CONSUMING INDUSTRIES STEEL DISTRIBUTIONSTEEL DISTRIBUTION

+ IMPORT+ IMPORT

MARKET SUPPLYMARKET SUPPLY

MARKET SUPPLY = STEEL PRODUCTION - EXPORTS + IMPORTS ?MARKET SUPPLY = STEEL PRODUCTION - EXPORTS + IMPORTS ?

A CLASSICAL TOP DOWN PERCEPTION !A CLASSICAL TOP DOWN PERCEPTION !

STEEL MARKETSTEEL MARKET

STEEL CONSUMING INDUSTRIESSTEEL CONSUMING INDUSTRIES

MARKET SUPPLYMARKET SUPPLY

THE NECESSARY BOTTOM UP PERCEPTION !THE NECESSARY BOTTOM UP PERCEPTION !

STEEL DISTRIBUTIONSTEEL DISTRIBUTIONSTEEL PRODUCTIONSTEEL PRODUCTION

EXPORTEXPORT IMPORTIMPORT

MARKET ------------------------- SUPPLYMARKET ------------------------- SUPPLY

MARKET SUPPLY = SUPPLY OF THE STEEL CONSUMING INDUSTRIES !MARKET SUPPLY = SUPPLY OF THE STEEL CONSUMING INDUSTRIES !MARKET SUPPLY STRUCTURESMARKET SUPPLY STRUCTURESMARKET SUPPLY STRUCTURESMARKET SUPPLY STRUCTURES

2121



PRESIDENTPRESIDENTSteel Markets 2009Steel Markets 2009

The Survival of the FittestThe Survival of the Fittest

VICE PRESIDENTVICE PRESIDENT

THE SURVIVAL OF THE FITTESTTHE SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST THE SURVIVAL OF THE FITTESTTHE SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST DON'T HOPE TO SURVIVE, BUT TRAIN FOR IT!DON'T HOPE TO SURVIVE, BUT TRAIN FOR IT!AND MOST IMPORTANT - MOVE FAST!AND MOST IMPORTANT - MOVE FAST!

DON'T BE A SITTING DUCK!DON'T BE A SITTING DUCK!

2222

www.eurometal.netwww.eurometal.netwww.eurometal.netwww.eurometal.netwww.eassc.orgwww.eassc.orgwww.eassc.orgwww.eassc.org

THANK YOU THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST AND ATTENTIONFOR YOUR INTEREST AND ATTENTIONTHANK YOU THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST AND ATTENTIONFOR YOUR INTEREST AND ATTENTION

17 APRIL 200917 APRIL 200917 APRIL 200917 APRIL 2009

1 1. 2 2 prawdziwa klêska optymistów dopiero nadchodzi the real surrender of the optimists is...

Documents

fittest hutnictwo

steel party

fittest vice president

metals slide

macroeconomic recession

free fall

ugly recession

metals distribution