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NWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002

NWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002

Paul HirschbergOffice of Science & Technology

Paul HirschbergOffice of Science & Technology

National Weather Service

Science and Technology Infusion PlanIntroduction

National Weather Service

Science and Technology Infusion PlanIntroduction

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OutlineOutline

Background

Vision

Keys to S&T Infusion

• Teamwork

• Process

• Architecture

• Plans

Background

Vision

Keys to S&T Infusion

• Teamwork

• Process

• Architecture

• Plans

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Successfully Completed Modernization and Restructuring

Our products and services have improved

Performance is leveling off

Users still have needs

S&T continues advancing

How will NWS respond and continue improving?

Successfully Completed Modernization and Restructuring

Our products and services have improved

Performance is leveling off

Users still have needs

S&T continues advancing

How will NWS respond and continue improving?

BackgroundNWS Planning for the Future

BackgroundNWS Planning for the Future

Tornado WarningsTornado Warnings

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002Year

Perc

en

t

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Min

ute

s

Probability of Detection(Y1)

False Alarm Rate(Y1)

Lead Time(Y2)

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Current47 Minutes

Vision>2 Hour

Flash Floods

VisionVastly Improved Forecasts and Warnings

in Our Core Service Areas

VisionVastly Improved Forecasts and Warnings

in Our Core Service Areas

Tornadoes

Current10 Minutes

Vision>30 Minutes

Winter Storms

Current13 Hours

Vision>1 Day

Current20 Hours

Vision>2 Days

Current16 Minutes

Vision>1 Hour

Thunder Storms

Hurricanes

Notional Warning Lead Time ImprovementsNotional Warning Lead Time Improvements

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Vision In a Seamless Database of Information

Vision In a Seamless Database of Information

Observations

Analyses

Forecasts

Uncertainty Information

Outlooks, Watches, Warnings

Interrogation and mining tools allow users to exploit database for any application or purpose

Observations

Analyses

Forecasts

Uncertainty Information

Outlooks, Watches, Warnings

Interrogation and mining tools allow users to exploit database for any application or purpose

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VisionStrengthening Links and Building New

Programs in Non-Traditional Service Areas

VisionStrengthening Links and Building New

Programs in Non-Traditional Service Areas

Air Quality ForecastsFisheries Impact

ForecastsSpace Weather

Forecasts

Coastal Erosion Forecasts

Water Quality Forecasts

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Air Quality Forecasts

Vision What It Will Take to Get There

Vision What It Will Take to Get There

Know and Anticipate Customer Needs.

Evolve Operational Concepts

Train Workforce

Infuse Proven Science and Technology

Know and Anticipate Customer Needs.

Evolve Operational Concepts

Train Workforce

Infuse Proven Science and Technology

Current RadarCurrent Radar Upgraded RadarUpgraded Radar

IFPS

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S&T InfusionObjective

S&T InfusionObjective

Improve performance through a disciplined incorporation of new ideas, procedures, and capabilities

(Dorman Report, 1999)

Improve performance through a disciplined incorporation of new ideas, procedures, and capabilities

(Dorman Report, 1999)

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S&T InfusionS&T Infusion

Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork

• To effect transition

Define Process

• To establish thread to operations early

Promote Compatible Architecture - Prediction Systems and Testbeds

• To streamline transition

Plan - Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution Plans

• To set direction and add discipline

Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork

• To effect transition

Define Process

• To establish thread to operations early

Promote Compatible Architecture - Prediction Systems and Testbeds

• To streamline transition

Plan - Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution Plans

• To set direction and add discipline

Key ElementsKey Elements

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TeamworkTeamwork

NWS: Identifies operational S&T shortfalls

Evaluates S&T opportunities

Conducts applied R&D – operational applications

Inserts proven new S&T into operations

Leads planning and budgeting for S&T insertion into operations

NWS: Identifies operational S&T shortfalls

Evaluates S&T opportunities

Conducts applied R&D – operational applications

Inserts proven new S&T into operations

Leads planning and budgeting for S&T insertion into operations

S&T Transition Roles and ResponsibilitiesS&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities

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TeamworkTeamwork

NWS S&T Partners: Develop/find R&D

Identify opportunities, make data/info available early

Respond to NWS operational shortfalls

Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T including research data into operations

Assist as consultant in maintenance of operational capability

Lead planning and budgeting for R&D

NWS S&T Partners: Develop/find R&D

Identify opportunities, make data/info available early

Respond to NWS operational shortfalls

Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T including research data into operations

Assist as consultant in maintenance of operational capability

Lead planning and budgeting for R&D

S&T Transition Roles and ResponsibilitiesS&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities

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ProcessProcess

Establish coordinated “thread” to operations early – including envisioned applications

• Develop joint plans – R&D to Operations

− Start at operations, work backwards and iterate

− Coordinate investment strategies upfront

− Continuously review and update

Execution

• Scheduled and frequent communication and coordination

− Design and readiness reviews

• Well understood decision points and criteria

Establish coordinated “thread” to operations early – including envisioned applications

• Develop joint plans – R&D to Operations

− Start at operations, work backwards and iterate

− Coordinate investment strategies upfront

− Continuously review and update

Execution

• Scheduled and frequent communication and coordination

− Design and readiness reviews

• Well understood decision points and criteria

R&D

ResearchDemonstration

OperationalDevelopment

Deployment

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USWRP

THORpex

SOOs/DOOsField Science

Universities

AviationAviation

Water ManagementWater Management

Drought Preparedness

Drought Preparedness

Marine SafetyMarine Safety

Emergency Management

NWS Field

ProcessProcess

User Needs

R&D Required?

SolutionAnalysis

DeploymentSolutionSelection

ReqirementsValidation

SolutionDevelopment

S&T Idea

PotentialNWSUse?

NWSEndorsed

R&D

PositiveR&D

Evalation?

PositiveDemo

Evaluation?

OperationalRequirement?

NWSEndorsed

Demo

Requirements Pull

YESNO

Time

YES

Opportunities Push

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ProcessContinuously Review and Update

ProcessContinuously Review and Update

Time

Performance

2008

Baseline

Required Capability

ForOperations

2002 2003 2004 200720062005

ProjectedProgress

Agreed UponBoundaries

StopProject

AccelerateTransition

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ArchitectureArchitecture

Prediction systems

•Vision: Compatible research and operational models

Testbeds

•Vision: Develop and test new S&T in laboratory settings

- When proven: Timely, cost-effective transition to operations

Prediction systems

•Vision: Compatible research and operational models

Testbeds

•Vision: Develop and test new S&T in laboratory settings

- When proven: Timely, cost-effective transition to operations

Commonality/Compatibility is KeyCommonality/Compatibility is Key

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ArchitecturePrediction SystemsArchitecturePrediction Systems

Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model

•State-of-the-science, common infrastructure system

•Supporting advanced regional- to local-scale operational weather forecasting applications and research

•More effective insertion of research into operations and coordination of

national operational mission capabilities.

•Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA

Effort extensible to global and climate systems

Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model

•State-of-the-science, common infrastructure system

•Supporting advanced regional- to local-scale operational weather forecasting applications and research

•More effective insertion of research into operations and coordination of

national operational mission capabilities.

•Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA

Effort extensible to global and climate systems

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Compatible Architecture to support End-to-End R-O Process

Provide Research Community “Real” Operational Environment

Allow Demonstration, Validation, etc. of New Science Before Major Investment

Allow Research on Difficult Operational Problems

Provide training opportunities for current and future scientists

Compatible Architecture to support End-to-End R-O Process

Provide Research Community “Real” Operational Environment

Allow Demonstration, Validation, etc. of New Science Before Major Investment

Allow Research on Difficult Operational Problems

Provide training opportunities for current and future scientists

ArchitectureTestbeds

ArchitectureTestbeds

Research OperationsTest

• Improved operational NWP

• More Timely Infusion of New S&T

• Reduced Cost

• Improved operational NWP

• More Timely Infusion of New S&T

• Reduced Cost

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Distributed Testbed System Vision

Distributed Testbed System Vision

NWS

Aviation

CoastalMarine

SevereWeather

Observations NWP

Climate

SatelliteDA

Hurricanes

Universities,Labs, OtherUniversities,Labs, Other

Universities,Labs, OtherUniversities,Labs, Other

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation 2003 AO planned

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation 2003 AO planned

Joint Hurricane Testbed8 funded projects

Joint Hurricane Testbed8 funded projects

Short-term Prediction Research and TransitionFocused on 0-24 h W&F Problems

Short-term Prediction Research and TransitionFocused on 0-24 h W&F Problems

PlannedPlanned

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PlanPlan

NWS Today: • Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS

• Requirements driven - More service pull than science push

NWS Next: • What NWS will evolve to by 2012

NWS After Next: • NWS of 20 or more years from now

• S&T Opportunities driven - More push than pull

(from Dorman Report, 99)

NWS Today: • Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS

• Requirements driven - More service pull than science push

NWS Next: • What NWS will evolve to by 2012

NWS After Next: • NWS of 20 or more years from now

• S&T Opportunities driven - More push than pull

(from Dorman Report, 99)

Three TimeframesThree Timeframes

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Plan Advances Must Occur Along Forecast Process

Plan Advances Must Occur Along Forecast Process

Observe

Analyze and PredictAnalyze and Predict

Disseminate& Provide

Information Access

Disseminate& Provide

Information Access

Produce Products & Provide Services

Produce Products & Provide Services

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and Worth the Cost

PlanAdvances Must be Linked to Results

and Worth the Cost

S&T Advances

Observations

Numerical Prediction

Forecast Applications

IT Architecture

Dissemination/Access

S&T Advances

Observations

Numerical Prediction

Forecast Applications

IT Architecture

Dissemination/Access

Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts

Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc.

Aviation, Fire, and Marine Forecasts

Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts

Flood and River Predictions

ResultsResults

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PlanPlan

Performance Measure Based

“End-to-End”

• Research to operations

• Observations to delivering information to users

Integrated across service areas

Reflect reasonable budget expectations

Performance Measure Based

“End-to-End”

• Research to operations

• Observations to delivering information to users

Integrated across service areas

Reflect reasonable budget expectations

ObjectivesObjectives

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Next Portion of STIPNext Portion of STIP

Service/Science

Aviation Weather

Marine/Coastal

• Tropical and Extratropical

Public Weather

• Severe Storms, Winter Wx., Fire Wx.

Hydrology

• QPE, QPF, Flooding

Climate Analysis and Prediction

Air Quality

Service/Science

Aviation Weather

Marine/Coastal

• Tropical and Extratropical

Public Weather

• Severe Storms, Winter Wx., Fire Wx.

Hydrology

• QPE, QPF, Flooding

Climate Analysis and Prediction

Air Quality

Cross-Cutting

Observations

DA/Numerical Prediction

Forecast Applications

IT Architecture

Dissemination/Data Access

Cross-Cutting

Observations

DA/Numerical Prediction

Forecast Applications

IT Architecture

Dissemination/Data Access

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Roadmaps Focused on NWS Today and Next while

Keeping an Eye on After Next

Roadmaps Focused on NWS Today and Next while

Keeping an Eye on After Next

TimeTime

20032003 20072007 20122012

Incr

ea

sin

g

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

eIn

cre

as

ing

P

erf

orm

an

ce

20202020

TodayToday

NextNext

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Briefing OutlinesBriefing Outlines

• Team Composition

• Vision / Benefits

• Goals / Targets

• Key Information Gaps

• Key Solutions

• Outstanding R & D Needs

• Summary

• Team Composition

• Vision / Benefits

• Goals / Targets

• Key Information Gaps

• Key Solutions

• Outstanding R & D Needs

• Summary