1 american public opinion toward foreign policy an in-depth view of the electorate douglas e. schoen...

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American Public Opinion Toward Foreign Policy

An In-Depth View of the Electorate

Douglas E. SchoenMark J. Penn

July 2007

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Overview

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Overview

This poll is designed to provide an in depth look at how the American public sees American foreign policy.

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Overview

As we did last year, this survey seeks to look beyond traditional political polls and provide a detailed analysis of what the American people are looking for as the Iraq war seemingly winds down and as a presidential election approaches.

The goal here is to provide a more nuanced and balanced view of how the American people view U.S. foreign policy than snapshot polls provide.

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Overview

The poll was conducted with a representative sample of the national electorate with 1,006 interviews conducted between June 25th and June 27th.

The margin of sampling error for the poll is +/-2.5% overall and larger for subgroups.

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Key Conclusions

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Overview

Many commentators have looked at American attitudes and pointed to a so-called new isolationism that has appeared in U.S. foreign policy.

And while it is certainly true that the American people want renewed focus on the domestic agenda, they have by no means turned away from recognizing the need to directly confront international problems.

They strongly favor a multilateral approach, but still recognize the need for unilateralism if serious problems cannot be resolved in their desired fashion.

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Overview

We call this approach “The New Pragmatism.”

The New Pragmatism includes the following:

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Overview

1) A clear sense that our current approach is failing

2) An equally clear sense that we cannot retreat from conflicts and threats that exist abroad

3) A very strong desire for bipartisanship in the formulation of American policy and an equally strong sense that it does not now exist

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Overview

4) A renewed focus on protecting the homeland, reducing dependence on foreign oil, protecting American jobs from competition, and doing everything possible to eliminate nuclear proliferation

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Overview

5) A strong preference for using bilateral and multilateral forums to resolve conflicts

6) At the same time demonstrating an enduring willingness to accept the need for unilateralism as a means of protecting the nation and preventing terrorism.

7) They continue to believe that the threat of terrorism is very real.

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Overview

As we will show, this approach is non-ideological and wins support from a large majority of the American people on most specific foreign policy problems.

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Where We Stand Now

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Where We Stand Now

There is a clear sense that current policy is failing:– 67% say the country is heading in the wrong

direction– 67% say that U.S. foreign policy is heading in the

wrong direction

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Where We Stand Now

– 80% say U.S. relations with the world have worsened over the past five years.

– 63% say those relations continue to get worse: 35% blame President Bush 19% blame Congress 17% blame other countries 12% blame Democrats

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Where We Stand Now

Less than a third of Americans approve of President Bush’s job performance.

29%

71%

27%

73%

0

50

100

Bush overall Bush jobapproval

Positive rating

Negative rating

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Where We Stand Now

The top issues:

– 67% indicate the most significant foreign policy problem facing the U.S. is Iraq

– 34% suggest improving U.S. relations around the world is the second most significant challenge

– 33% maintain that fighting terror at home and abroad is the third most significant foreign policy challenge

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Where We Stand Now

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to focus on improving U.S. relations around the world while Republicans focus more on fighting terror.

Voters of all parties agree that Iraq presents the major challenge.

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Where We Stand Now

Americans think that the greatest success of the Bush Administration is fighting the war on terror.

38% 37%

20% 20%18%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Greatest success

Fighting war onterror

RemovingSadaam Husseinfrom powerDoctrine ofpreemption

Refusing to talkto countries thatfund terrorFundingprograms tocombat AIDS

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Where We Stand Now

Voters say the greatest failure of the Bush Administration is the Iraq war.

46%

35%31%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Greatest failure

Iraq War

NationalSecurity/Intelligence mistakes

U.S. foreignrelations havegenerallyworsened

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Where We Stand Now

The Result:

– 82% say people in other countries view the United States unfavorably

– 71% say people in other countries now view the American people unfavorably

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What Needs to be Done to Improve Our Position in the World?

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37%

23%

13%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 End the war inIraq

Use the militaryless ininternationalaffairs

Work morethroughinternationalorganizations

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Importance of Bipartisanship

Parties disagree on most issues and hardly ever work together.

Agree

70%

Disagree

30%

Parties generally work together despite disagreements and can reach a consensus on foreign policy problems.

30% 70%

25


What Voters are Seeking Agree

Achieve bipartisan consensus on foreign policy

85%

Parties have different views and should fight for what each thinks is right

15%

26


How Important is Bipartisanship?

Very Important 55%

Somewhat Important 37%

Not Important 9%

• Over half of voters think bipartisanship is very important.

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Bipartisanship

American people do not believe we can achieve bipartisan policy on Iraq and immigration reform.

Can Bipartisanship be Achieved?

Yes No

Iraq 29% 71%

Immigration Reform 42% 58%

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Bipartisanship

Can Bipartisanship be Achieved? Yes No

Protecting U.S. Jobs from Outsourcing 47% 53%

Maintaining U.S. Superpower Status 48% 52%

Reducing Foreign Oil Dependence 49% 51%

Fighting Terrorism 50% 50%

Protecting Troops and Providing Them with Adequate Resources

50% 50%

Promoting Arab/Israeli Peace 54% 46%

Promoting Democracy 55% 45%

Fighting Global Warming and Climate Change 55% 45%

• On other key issues, American people are evenly divided on whether bipartisanship can be achieved.

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Bipartisanship

Can Bipartisanship be Achieved? Yes No

Preventing Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction

57% 43%

Defending Human Rights 60% 40%

Ending Darfur Genocide 62% 38%

Reducing Spread of AIDS 74% 26%

Reducing Spread of Malaria/TB 78% 22%

• Only on a few less controversial issues do American people believe bipartisanship can be achieved.

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Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy

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Top Tier IssuesProtecting the U.S. from terrorism 66%Reducing energy and foreign oil dependence 60%Ending the war in Iraq 57%Protecting U.S. jobs from outsourcing 51%Uprooting, jailing and if necessary, killing terrorist leaders 49%Preventing N. Korea/Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons 47%Strengthening alliances with allies and building new alliances 45%Preventing spread of weapons of mass destruction 45%

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Second Tier Issues

Maintaining U.S. position as preeminent military superpower

38%

Enacting immigration reform 38%

Finding Bin Laden 37%

Fighting global warming 36%

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Third Tier Issues

Humanitarian crises/stopping genocide 30%

Reducing spread of AIDS 29%

Ending genocide Darfur 26%

Fighting spread of TB/Malaria 24%

Fighting global poverty 19%

Promoting and defending human rights 17%

Promoting democracy 17%

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Threats to the United States

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Top Tier Threats

Terrorist organizations – Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda

53%

Iran’s effort to build a nuclear weapon 41%

Iran aiding Iraqi insurgents 39%

Global warming/climate change 36%

•Americans believe the largest threat facing the U.S. is terrorist organizations.

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Second Tier Threats

Cyber war and cyber terror 31%

Narcotics/international organized crime 29%

Israel conflict with neighbors 28%

China’s emergence as a world power 27%

North Korea 26%

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Third Tier Threats

Transitions occurring in Russia and China 20%

Tuberculosis in the Third World 20%

Growing economies of China and India 19%

Malaria 14%

Strains with Latin American nations 14%

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The Role of the United States

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83% of Americans believe that the U.S. should share a leadership role with allies and other countries in the world.

9%

83%

9%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Role of the U.S.

Single worldleader

Sharedleadership role

No leadershiprole

40


Most Americans say the U.S.’s role is equally as important as it was ten years ago.

28%

42%

30%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Compared to 10 yearsago

More importantworld role

Equallyimportant role

A lessimportant role

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63% of voters think that the U.S. should focus on domestic problems rather than world affairs.

Active Foreign Role vs. Emphasis on Domestic Affairs

As a dominant superpower, the U.S. should be the preeminent world leader in solving international problems.

37%

We have enough domestic problems. The U.S. should take care of U.S. problems and stay out of world affairs.

63%

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But despite this seeming focus on domestic affairs, the American people recognize that we cannot retreat from confronting international problems in a unilateral framework if necessary.

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While the American people support bipartisanship and a collective, multilateral approach to foreign policy as well as a renewed concentration on domestic affairs, they have not abandoned unilateralism if it proves necessary.

Agree Disagree

If a grave threat to the U.S. is posed and other nations do not provide military or diplomatic assistance, a unilateral approach is appropriate.

71% 29%

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Despite apparent dovishness generally, in specific cases, Americans will support military preemption and war.

Agree Disagree

Support preemptive war and military action if necessary to prevent terrorism, before any attacks have been launched

64% 36%

Democrats 45% 55%

Republicans 87% 14%

Independents 59% 41%

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73%

8%19%

01020304050607080

To prevent an attackon our nation in thefuture, use of force

is…

Justified

Not justified

Sometimesjustified

Almost three quarters of the public endorses the use of force to prevent an attack on America.

46


Use of forces is also justified when our allies have been:– directly attacked (74%) – when an attack on our allies is imminent (61%) – when an attack on our allies is possible (53%)

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67% say use of force is also justified to prevent nuclear war.

59% say use of force is also justified to end genocide or mass killings.

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To protect oil reserves around the world, use of force is:

Justified 52%

Not justified 15%

Sometimes justified

33%

49


Americans are almost evenly divided on continued military engagement in the Middle East and North Korea:

– 47% believe our military should remain engaged – 53% believe the U.S. should pull back from these

theatres

50


Democrats support a pullback by a 60%-40% margin while Republicans oppose a pullback by about the same margin. Independents divide as the overall population does.

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Americans are also evenly divided on whether there should be diplomatic relations with countries like Iran and Syria that support terrorism:

– 50% believe there should be no diplomatic relations

– 50% support relations

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Once again, Democrats support relations by about a 60%-40% margin, and Republicans oppose by about the same amount. Independents are evenly divided.

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Specific Foreign Policy Issues

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Most voters are pessimistic about the war in Iraq:

18%

82%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

How is the war going

Well

Badly

55


43%

57%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

The U.S. Will Ultimately…

Suceed in Iraq

Fail in Iraq

They believe we will fail in Iraq.

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60% of Americans support at least most or all troops being withdrawn from Iraq:

Troops in Iraq Agree

Increase troop level 14%

Keep about same level 26%

Pull most of the troops out 29%

Withdraw all troops 31%

57


Despite the desire to remove troops, over half of Americans support continued funding.

Funding the War in Iraq Continue Funding

Cut off Funding

Overall 54% 46%

Democrats 34% 66%

Republicans 76% 24%

Independents 54% 46%

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56% believe that the Iraq War is distracting us from the war on terror; 46% believe it is an essential part.

67% believe that the Iraq War is creating, rather than eliminating, terrorists.

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Most Americans see Iran as a long term threat to the U.S.

20%

68%

12%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Iran

Immediatethreat

Long termthreat

No threat

60


14%

40%46%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Efforts to Stop Iran fromDeveloping Nuclear

Weapons

Done TooMuch

Right Amount

Done Too Little

Overall, 46% say the Bush Administration has not done enough to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

61


72% of Americans prefer diplomacy to pressure with Iran, but if diplomacy does not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, 57% favor military action.

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64% of voters would favor air strikes against military and suspected nuclear sites in Iran if diplomacy fails.

But 65% of voters oppose sending U.S. troops into Iran to take control of the country.

And 62% of voters oppose the assassination of President Ahmadinejad.

63


Most think the U.S. occupation of Iraq makes Iran more likely to develop nuclear weapons:

– 63% say more likely– 21% say less likely– 37% say the occupation has no impact

64


Close to two thirds of Americans believe that North Korea poses a long term threat to the U.S.

20%

64%

16%

0

20

40

60

80

100

North Korea

Immediatethreat

Long termthreat

No threat

65


66% believe that a nuclear crisis in North Korea can be resolved with diplomacy instead of military force.

53% favor military action if diplomacy in North Korea does not work.

66


Russia is narrowly seen as an ally of the U.S., and Americans oppose a missile shield in Europe.

Russia

Ally 53%

Enemy 47%

Missile Shield in Europe

Support shield, despite Russian objections

43%

Oppose shield, will amplify Russian tensions

57%

67


The American people oppose the U.S. leading a new peace initiative in the Middle East but want U.S. involvement.

24%

52%

24%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Should U.S. lead newpeace initiative

between Israel andPalestine?

Support U.S.leadinginitiatve

Want U.S.involved/notleader

U.S. shouldn'tbe involved

68


Almost half of voters do not want the U.S. to be involved in the Middle East conflict between Hamas and Fatah.

47%

28%20%

1%0

20

40

60

80

100

U.S.role in conflictbetween Hamas and

Fatah

Do nothing -it's an internalcivil war

Support FatahandAbbas/moderate Arabs

Support bothFatah andHamas

Support Hamas

69


In general, most Americans do not think the U.S. should be involved in the Middle East, as it makes the situation worse and creates more anti-Americanism and terror.

General U.S. Role in Middle East

Support democratization to reduce Islamic Fundamentalism

37%

U.S. should not be involved in the Middle East

63%

70

United Nations

71

United Nations

60% believe that the U.N. should have more power and authority.

U.N. Power and Authority

More 60%

Less 40%

72

United Nations

However, only 25% rate the job the U.N. has done in solving international problems positively.

U.N. Performance in Solving International Problems

Positive ratings 25%

Negative ratings 75%

73

United Nations

General U.S. Role in Middle East

The U.S. should be more willing to make decisions and work within the U.N. even if it means compromising on policy.

67%

The U.S. should not work with the U.N. if it means sacrificing some U.S. interests. 33%

1 american public opinion toward foreign policy an in-depth view of the electorate douglas e. schoen...

Documents

overview slide

american foreign policy

american people

wrong direction slide

formulation of american

nuclear proliferation

american attitudes

american jobs