1 chapter 9 managing flow variability managing flow variability: process control and capability...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Managing Flow Variability: Process
Control and Capability
Managing Business Process Flows:
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Managing Flow Variability
9.1 Performance Variability
9.2 Analysis of Variability
9.3 Process Control
9.4 Process Capability
9.5 Process Capability Improvement
9.6 Product and Process Design
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Managing Business Process Flows:
Great year…….Great Products!Service!Reputation!
Congratulations!!
Good Job everyone!
Sorry to burst the bubble... Butwe are not doing well. You’re
Fired
I heard customers are not satisfied with our products and services
Hhhmmm… we need hard data.
We need to identify, correct and prevent future problems!
Yikes…more work
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
All Products & Services VARY in Terms Of
Managing Business Process Flows:
CostCostQualityQuality AvailabilityAvailability
FlowFlowTimesTimes
Variability often leads to Customer Dissatisfaction
Chapter covers some geographical/statistical methods for measuring, analyzing, controlling & reducing variability in product & process performance to improve customer satisfaction
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.1 Performance Variability
All measures of product & process performance (external & internal) display Variability. External Measurements - customer satisfaction, relative product
rankings, customer complaints (vary from one market survey to the next) Possible sources: supplier delivery delays or changing tastes
Internally - flow units in all business processes vary with respect to cost, quality & flow times
Possible sources: untrained workers or imprecise equipment
Example 1 ~ No two cars rolling off an assembly line are identical. Even under identical circumstances, the time & cost required to produce the same product could be quite different.
Example 2 ~ Cost of operating a department within a company can vary from one quarter to the next.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.1 Performance Variability
Variability refers to a discrepancy between the actual and
the expected performance.
Can be due to gap between the following: What customer wants and what product is designed for
What product design calls for and what process for making it is capable of producing
What process is capable of producing and what it actually produces
How the produced product is expected to perform and how it actually performs
How the product actually performs and how the customer perceives it
This often leads to:
higher costs, longer flow times, lower quality &
DISSATISFIED CUSTOMERS
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.1 Performance Variability
Processes with greater performance variability are generally judged
LESS satisfactory than those with consistent, predictable
performance.
Variability in product & process performance, not just its average,
Matters to consumers!
Customers perceive any variation in their product or service from
what they expected as a LOSS IN VALUE.
In general, a product is classified as defective if its cost, quality,
availability or flow time differ significantly from their expected values,
leading to dissatisfied customers.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Quality Management Terms
BOOK COVERS A FEW QUALITY MANAGEMENT TERMS:
Quality of Design: how well product specifications aim to meet customer
requirements (what we promise consumers ~ in terms of what the product can do)
Quality Function Deployment (QFD): conceptual framework for translating
customers’ functional requirements (such as ease of operation of a door or its
durability) into concrete design specifications (such as the door weight should be
between 75 and 85 kg.)
Quality of conformance: how closely the actual product conforms to the chosen
design specifications (how well we keep our promise in terms of how it actually
performs)
Measures: fraction of output that meets specifications, # defects per car,
percentage of flights delayed for more than 15 minutes OR the number of
reservation errors made in a specific period of time.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.2 Analysis of Variability
To analyze and improve variability there are diagnostic tools to help us:
Monitor the actual process performance over time
Analyze variability in the process
Uncover root causes
Eliminate those causes
Prevent them from recurring in the future
Again we will use MBPF Inc. as an example and look at how their
customers perceive the experience of doing business with the company &
how it can be improved.
– Need to present raw data in a way to make sense of the numbers,
track change over time, or identify key characteristics of the data set.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.2.1 Check Sheets
A check sheet is simply a tally of the types and
frequency of problems with a product or a service
experienced by customers.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Example 9.1
Type of Complaint Number of Complaints
Cost IIII IIII
Response Time IIII
Customization IIII
Service Quality IIII IIII IIII
Door Quality IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Check Sheets
Pros
Easy to collect data
Cons
Not very enlightening
No numerical characteristics
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.2.2 Pareto Charts
A Pareto chart is simply a bar chart that plots
frequencies of occurrences of problem types in
decreasing order.
The 80-20 Pareto principle states that 20% of problem
types account for 80% of all occurrences.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Example 9.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Door Quality Service Quality Cost Response Time Customization
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Pareto Charts
Pros
Ranks problems
Shows relative size of quantities
Cons
No numerical characteristics
Only categorizes data
No comparison process information
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.2.3 Histograms
A histogram is a bar plot that displays the frequency
distribution of an observed performance characteristic.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Example 9.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92
Weight (kg)
Fre
qu
en
cy
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Histograms
Pros
Visualizes data distribution
Shows relative size of quantities
Cons
No numerical characteristics
Dependant on category size
No focus on change over time
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Table 9.1
Day
Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9:00 AM 81 82 80 74 75 81 83 86 88 82
11:00 AM 73 87 83 81 86 86 82 83 79 84
1:00 PM 85 88 76 91 82 83 76 82 86 89
3:00 PM 90 78 84 75 84 88 77 79 84 84
5:00 PM 80 84 82 83 75 81 78 85 85 80
Day
Time 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
9:00 AM 86 86 88 72 84 76 74 85 82 89
11:00 AM 84 83 79 86 85 82 86 85 84 80
1:00 PM 81 78 83 80 81 83 83 82 83 90
3:00 PM 81 80 83 79 88 84 89 77 92 83
5:00 PM 87 83 82 87 81 79 83 77 84 77
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Raw Data
Pros
Actual information
Specific numbers
Cons
Not intuitive
Does not help with understanding of relationships
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.2.4 Run Charts
A run chart is a plot of some measure of process
performance monitored over time
Advantage is that it is dynamic
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Example 9.4
70
75
80
85
90
95
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Run Charts
Pros
Shows data in chronological order
Displays relative change over time (trends, seasonality)
Cons
Erratic graph
No numerical characteristics
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.2.5 Multi-Vari Charts
A multi-vari chart is a plot of high-average-low values of
performance measurement sampled over time.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Example 9.5
70
75
80
85
90
95
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
High
Low
Average
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Table 9.2
Day
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
High 90 88 84 91 86 88 83 86 88 89
Low 73 78 76 74 75 81 76 79 79 80
Average 81.8 83.8 81.0 80.8 80.4 83.8 79.2 83.0 84.4 83.8
Day
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
High 87 86 88 87 88 84 89 85 92 90
Low 81 78 79 72 81 76 74 77 82 77
Average 83.8 82.0 83.0 80.8 83.8 80.8 83.0 81.2 85.0 83.8
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Multi-Vari Charts
Pros
Shows numerical range and average
Displays relative change over time
Cons
Erratic graph
No numerical characteristics
Lacks distribution information
Does not provide guidance for taking actions
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.3 Process Control
Goal Actual Performance vs. Planned Performance Involves
Tracking Deviations
Taking Corrective Actions Principle of feedback control of dynamical systems
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA)
Process planning and process control are similar to the Plan-Do-
Check-Act (PDCA) cycle.
PDCA cycle…
“involves planning the process, operating it, inspecting its
output, and adjusting it in light of the observation.”
Performed continuously to monitor and improve the process
performance
Main Problems
When to Act ….
Variances beyond control …
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Process Control
Two types of variability
1. Normal variability
– Statistically predictable
– Structural variability and
stochastic variability
– Variations due to random
causes only (worker
cannot control)
– PROCESS IS IN
CONTROL
– Process design
improvement
2. Abnormal variability
– Unpredictable
– Disturbs state of statistical
equilibrium of the process
– Identifiable and can be
removed (worker can
control)
– Abnormal - due to
assignable causes
– PROCESS IS OUT OF
CONTROL
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Process Control
The short run goal is:
Estimate normal stochastic variability.
Accept it as an inevitable and avoid tampering
Detect presence of abnormal variability
Identify and eliminate its sources
The long run goal is to reduce normal variability by improving
process.
When is observed variability normal and abnormal???
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
§ 9.3.3 Control Limit Policy
Control Limit Policy
Control band
Range within variation in performance normal
Due to causes that cannot be identified or eliminated in short run
Leave alone and do not tamper
Variability outside this range is abnormal
Due to assignable causes
Investigate and correct
Applications
Inventory, Process Flow
Cash management
Stock trading
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
LCL = - z UCL = + z
The smaller the value of “z”, the tighter the control
- expected value of the performance
UCL and LCL
Standard Deviation Assign z
Process Control Chart:
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
Within the control band Performance variability is
normal
Outside the control band Process is “out of control”
Data Misinterpretation
Type I error, : Process is “in control”, but data outside
the Control Band
Type II error, : Process is “out of control”, but data inside
the Control Band
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
Acceptable
Frequency
“z” too small
unnecessary
investigation;
additional cost
“z” to large
accept more
variations, less
costly
Optimal Degree of Control
In practice, a value of z = 3 is used
99.73% of all measurements will fall within the “normal” range
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
Average and Variation Control Charts
- To calculate:
Calculate the average value, A1, A2….AN
Calculate the variance of each sample, V1, V2….VN
A = /n (n = sample size)
LCL = - z/n and UCL = + z/n
Take it one step further:
Estimate by the overall average of all the sample averages, A A = (A1+ A2+…+AN) / N (N = # of samples)
Also estimate by the standard deviation of all N x n observations, S
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
New, Improved equations for UCL and LCL are:
LCL = A - zs/n and UCL = A + zs/n
CalculateV -- the average variance of the sample variances
V = (V1+ V2+…+VN) / N (N = # of samples)
Also calculate SV -- the standard deviation of the variances
Sample Variances
LCL = V - z sV and UCL = V + z sV
If fall within this range Process Variability is stable
If not within this range Investigate cause of abnormal variations
Average and Variation Control Charts
Variance
Control Limits
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
Average and Variation Control Charts
Garage Door Example revisited…
Ex: A1 = (81 + 73 + 85 + 90 + 80) / 5 = 81.8 kg
Ex: V1 = (90 - 73) = 17 kg
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
Average and Variation Control Charts
Average Weights of Garage Door Samples:
A = 82.5 kg V = 10.1 kg
Std. Dev. of Door Weights: s = 4.2 kgStd. Dev. of Sample Variances: sV = 3.5 kg
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
Average and Variation Control Charts
Average Weight Control Chart
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Days
Ave
rag
e W
t. (
Kg
)
`
UCL = 88.13
LCL = 76.87
Let z = 3 Sample Averages
UCL = A + zs/n = 82.5 + 3 (4.2) / 5 = 88.13
LCL = A - zs/n = 82.5 – 3 (4.2) / 5 = 76.87
Process is Stable!
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
Average and Variation Control Charts
Let z = 3 Sample Variances
UCL = V + z sV = 10.1 + 3 (3.5) = 20.6
LCL = V - zs sV = 10.1 – 3 (3.5) = - 0.4
Variance Control Chart
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Days
Var
ian
ce (
ran
ge)
of
Wt.
(K
g)
UCL = 20.6
LCL = 0
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.4 Control Charts … Continued
Extensions
Continuous Variables - Garage Door Weights, Processing Costs, Customer Waiting Time
Discrete Variables - Number of Customer Complaints, Whether a Flow Unit is Defective, Number of Defects per Flow Unit Produced
Use Normal distribution
Use Binomial or Poisson distribution
Control Limit formula differs, but basic principles is same.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.5 Cause-Effect Diagrams
Cause-Effect Diagrams
Now what?!!
Answer 5 “WHY” Questions !
Sample
Observations
Plot
Control Charts
Abnormal
Variability !!
Brainstorm Session!!
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.5 Cause-Effect Diagrams … Continued
Why…? Why…? Why…?
Our famous “Garage Door” Example:
1. Why are these doors so heavy? Because the Sheet Metal was too ‘thick’.
2. Why was the sheet metal too thick? Because the rollers at the steel mill were
set incorrectly.
3. Why were the rollers set
incorrectly?
Because the supplier is not able to meet
our specifications.
4. Why did we select this supplier? Because our Project Supervisor was too
busy getting the product out – didn’t have
time to research other vendors.
5. Why did he get himself in this
situation?
Because he gets paid by meeting the
production quotas.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.5 Cause-Effect Diagrams … Continued
Fishbone Diagram
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3.6 Scatter Plots
The Thickness of the Sheet Metals
Change Settings on Rollers
Measure the Weight of the Garage Doors
Determine Relationship between the two
Plot the results on a graph:
Roller Settings & Garage Door Weights
0
5
10
15
20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Roller Setting (mm)
Do
or
Wei
gh
t (
Kg
)
Scatter Plot
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.3 Section Summary
Process Control involves
– Dynamic Monitoring
– Ensure variability in performance is due to normal random causes only
– Detect abnormal variability and eliminate root causes
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4 Process Capability
Ease of external product measures (door operations and durability) and
internal measures (door weight)
Product specification limits vs. process control limits
Individual units, NOT sample averages - must meet customer specifications.
Once process is in control, then the estimates of μ (82.5kg) and σ (4.2k) are
reliable. Hence we can estimate the process capabilities.
Process capabilities - the ability of the process to meet customer
specifications
Three measures of process capabilities:
9.4.1 Fraction of Output within Specifications
9.4.2 Process Capability Ratios (Cpk and Cp)
9.4.3 Six-Sigma Capability
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.1 Fraction of Output within Specifications
To compute for fraction of process that meets customer specs:
Actual observation (see Histogram, Fig 9.3)
Using theoretical probability distribution
Ex. 9.7:
US: 85kg; LS: 75 kg (the range of performance variation that
customer is willing to accept)
See figure 9.3 Histogram: In an observation of 100 samples, the process
is 74% capable of meeting customer requirements, and 26%
defectives!!!
OR:
Let W (door weight): normal random variable with mean = 82.5 kg and
standard deviation at 4.2 kg,
Then the proportion of door falling within the specified limits is:
Prob (75 ≤ W ≤ 85) = Prob (W ≤ 85) - Prob (W ≤ 75)
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.1 Fraction of Output within Specifications cont…
Let Z = standard normal variable with μ = 0 and σ = 1, we can use the
standard normal table in Appendix II to compute:
AT US:
Prob (W≤ 85) in terms of:
Z = (W-μ)/ σ
As Prob [Z≤ (85-82.5)/4.2] = Prob (Z≤.5952) = .724 (see Appendix II)
(In Excel: Prob (W ≤ 85) = NORMDIST (85,82.5,4.2,True) = .724158)
AT LS:
Prob (W ≤ 75)
= Prob (Z≤ (75-82.5)/4.2) = Prob (Z ≤ -1.79) = .0367 in Appendix II(In Excel: Prob (W ≤ 75) = NORMDIST(75,82.5,4.2,true) = .037073)
THEN:
Prob (75≤W≤85)
= .724 - .0367 = .6873
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.1 Fraction of Output within Specifications cont…
SO with normal approximation, the process is capable of producing 69% of
doors within the specifications, or delivering 31% defective doors!!!
Specifications refer to INDIVIDUAL doors, not AVERAGES.
We cannot comfort customer that there is a 31% chance that they’ll get doors
that are either TOO LIGHT or TOO HEAVY!!!
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.2 Process Capability Ratios (C pk and Cp)
2nd measure of process capability that is easier to compute is the process capability ratio (Cpk)
If the mean is 3σ above the LS (or below the US), there is very little chance of a product falling
below LS (or above US).
So we use:
(US- μ)/3σ (.1984 as calculated later)
and (μ -LS)/3σ (.5952 as calculated later)
as measures of how well process output would fall within our specifications.
The higher the value, the more capable the process is in meeting specifications.
OR take the smaller of the two ratios [aka (US- μ)/3σ =.1984] and define a single measure of
process capabilities as:
Cpk = min[(US-μ/)3σ, (μ -LS)/3σ] (.1984, as calculated later)
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.2 Process Capability Ratios (C pk and Cp)
Cpk of 1+- represents a capable process
Not too high (or too low)
Lower values = only better than expected quality
Ex: processing cost, delivery time delay, or # of error per transaction process
If the process is properly centered
– Cpk is then either:
(US- μ)/3σ or (μ -LS)/3σ
As both are equal for a centered process.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.2 Process Capability Ratios (C pk and Cp) cont…
Therefore, for a correctly centered process, we may simply define the
process capability ratio as:
– Cp = (US-LS)/6σ (.3968, as calculated later)
Numerator = voice of the customer / denominator = the voice of the
process
Recall: with normal distribution:
Most process output is 99.73% falls within +-3σ from the μ.
Consequently, 6σ is sometimes referred to as the natural tolerance of the
process.
Ex: 9.8
Cpk = min[(US- μ)/3σ , (μ -LS)/3σ ]
= min {(85-82.5)/(3)(4.2)], (82.5-75)/(3)(4.2)]}
= min {.1984, .5952}
=.1984
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.2 Process Capability Ratios (C pk and Cp)
If the process is correctly centered at μ = 80kg (between 75 and 85kg), we
compute the process capability ratio as
Cp = (US-LS)/6σ
= (85-75)/[(6)(4.2)] = .3968
NOTE: Cpk = .1984 (or Cp = .3968) does not mean that the process is capable of
meeting customer requirements by 19.84% (or 39.68%), of the time. It’s about
69%.
Defects are counted in parts per million (ppm) or ppb, and the process is assumed
to be properly centered. IN THIS CASE, If we want no more than 100 defects per
million (.01% defectives), we SHOULD HAVE the probability distribution of door
weighs so closely concentrated around the mean that the standard deviation is
1.282 kg, or Cp=1.3 (see Table 9.4) Test: σ = (85-75)/(6)(1.282)] = 1.300kg
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Table 9.4
Table 9.4 Relationship Between Process Capability Ratio and Proportion DefectiveDefects (ppm) 10000 1000 100 10 1 2 ppbCp 0.86 1 1.3 1.47 1.63 2
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.3 Six-Sigma Capability
Sigma measure
S = min[(US- μ /σ), (μ -LS)/σ]
(= min(.5152,1.7857) = .5152 to be calculated later)
S-Sigma process
If process is correctly centered at the middle of the specifications,
S = [(US-LS)/2σ]
Ex: 9.9
Currently the sigma capability of door making process is
S=min[(85-82.5)/(4.2), (82.5-75)/4.2] = .5952
By centering the process correctly, its sigma capability increases to
S=min(85-75)/[(2)(4.2)] = 1.19
THUS, with a 3σ that is correctly centered, the US and LS are 3σ away from the
mean, which corresponds to Cp=1, and 99.73% of the output will meet the
specifications.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.3 Six-Sigma Capability cont…
Correctly centered six-sigma process has a standard deviation so small that
the US and LS limits are 6σ from the mean each.
Extraordinary high degree of precision.
Corresponds to Cp=2 or 2 defective units per billion produced!!! (see Table
9.5)
In order for door making process to be a six-sigma process, its standard
deviation must be:
σ = (85-75)/(2)(6)] = .833kg
Adjusting for Mean Shifts
- +-1.5 standard deviation from the center of specifications.
- Producing an average of 3.4 defective units per million. (see table 9.5)
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Table 9.5
Table 9.5 Fraction Defective and Sigma MeasureSigma S 3 4 5 6Capability Ratio Cp 1 1.33 1.667 2Defects (ppm) 66810 6210 233 3.4
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.3 Six-Sigma Capability cont…
Why Six-Sigma?
– See table 9.5
– Improvement in process capabilities from a 3-sigma to 4-sigma = 10-fold
reduction in the fraction defective (66810 to 6210 defects)
– While 4-sigma to 5-sigma = 30-fold improvement (6210 to 232 defects)
– While 5-sigma to 6-sigma = 70-fold improvement (232 to 3.4 defects, per
million!!!).
Average companies deliver about 4-sigma quality, where best-in-class
companies aim for six-sigma.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.3 Six-Sigma Capability cont…
Why High Standards?
The overall quality of the entire product/process that requires ALL of
them to work satisfactorily will be significantly lower.
Ex:
If product contains 100 parts and each part is 99% reliable, the chance
that the product (all its parts) will work is only (.99)100 = .366, or
36.6%!!!
Also, costs associated with each defects may be high
Expectations keep rising
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.3 Six-Sigma Capability cont…
Safety capability
We may also express process capabilities in terms of the desired
margin [(US-LS)-zσ] as safety capability
It represents an allowance planned for variability in supply and/or
demand
Greater process capability means less variability
If process output is closely clustered around its mean, most of the
output will fall within the specifications
Higher capability thus means less chance of producing defectives
Higher capability = robustness
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.4.4 Capability and Control
In Ex. 9.7: the production process is not performing well in terms of MEETING THE
CUSTOMER SPECIFICATIONS. Only 69% meets output specifications!!! (See 9.4.1:
Fraction of Output within Specifications)
Yet in example 9.6, “the process was in control!!!”, or within us & ls limits.
Being in control and meeting specifications are two different measures of performance.
The former indicates internal stability, the latter indicates the ability to meet the customers
specifications.
Observation of a process in control ensures that the resulting estimates of the process
mean and standard deviation are reliable so that our measurement of the process
capability is accurate.
The final step is to improve process capability, so it is satisfactory from the customers
viewpoint as well.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.5 Process Capability Improvement
How do we improve the process capability?
Shift the process mean
Reduce the variability
Both
65
Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.5.1 Mean Shift
Examine where the current process mean lies in comparison to the
specification range (i.e. closer to the LS or the US)
Alter the process to bring the process mean to the center of the specification
range in order to increase the proportion of outputs that fall within
specification
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Ex 9.10
MBPF garage doors (currently)
specification range: 75 to 85 kgs
process mean: 82.5 kgs
proportion of output falling within specifications: .6873
The process mean of 82.5 kgs was very close to the US of 85 kgs (i.e. too
thick/heavy)
To lower the process mean towards the center of the specification range the
supplier could change the thickness setting on their rolling machine.
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Ex 9.10 Continued
Center of the specification range: (75 + 85)/2 = 80 kgs
New process mean: 80 kgs
If the door weight (W) is a normal random variable, then the proportion of
doors falling within specifications is: Prob (75 =< W =< 85)
Prob (W =< 85) – Prob (W =< 75)
Z = (weight – process mean)/standard deviation
Z = (85 – 80)/4.2 = 1.19
Z = (75 – 80)/4.2 = -1.19
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Ex 9.10 Continued
[from table A2.1 on page 319]
Z = 1.19 .8830
Z = -1.19 (1 - .8830) .1170 Prob (W =< 85) – Prob (W =< 75) =
.8830 - .1170 = .7660
By shifting the process mean from 82.5 kgs to 80 kgs, the proportion of
garage doors that falls within specifications increases from .6873 to .7660
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.5.2 Variability Reduction
Measured by standard deviation
A higher standard deviation value means higher variability amongst outputs
Lowering the standard deviation value would ultimately lead to a greater
proportion of output that falls within the specification range
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.5.2 Variability Reduction Continued
Possible causes for the variability MBPF experienced are:
old equipment
poorly maintained equipment
improperly trained employees
Investments to correct these problems would decrease variability however
doing so is usually time consuming and requires a lot of effort
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
Ex 9.11
Assume investments are made to decrease the standard deviation from 4.2
to 2.5 kgs
The proportion of doors falling within specifications: Prob (75 =< W =<
85)
Prob (W =< 85) – Prob (W =< 75)
Z = (weight – process mean)/standard deviation
Z = (85 – 80)/2.5 = 2.0
Z = (75 – 80)/2.5 = -2.0
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Ex 9.11 Continued
[from table A2.1 on page 319]
Z = 2.0 .9772
Z = -2.0 (1 - .9772) .0228 Prob (W =< 85) – Prob (W =< 75) =
.9772 - .0228 = .9544
By shifting the standard deviation from 4.2 kgs to 2.5 kgs and the process
mean from 82.5 kgs to 80 kgs, the proportion of garage doors that falls within
specifications increases from .6873 to .9544
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.5.3 Effect of Process Improvement on Process Control
Changing the process mean or variability requires re-calculating the control
limits
This is required because changing the process mean or variability will also
change what is considered abnormal variability and when to look for an
assignable cause
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.6 Product and Process Design
Reducing the variability from product and process design
simplification
standardization
mistake proofing
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Simplification
Reduce the number of parts (or stages) in a product (or process)
less chance of confusion and error
Use interchangeable parts and a modular design
simplifies materials handling and inventory control
Eliminate non-value adding steps
reduces the opportunity for making mistakes
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Standardization
Use standard parts and procedures
reduces operator discretion, ambiguity, and opportunity for making
mistakes
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Mistake Proofing
Designing a product/process to eliminate the chance of human error
ex. color coding parts to make assembly easier
ex. designing parts that need to be connected with perfect symmetry or
with obvious asymmetry to prevent assembly errors
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.6.2 Robust Design
Designing the product in a way so its actual performance will not be affected
by variability in the production process or the customer’s operating
environment
The designer must identify a combination of design parameters that protect
the product from the process related and environment related factors that
determine product performance
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Chapter 9 Managing Flow Variability
9.6 Product and Process Design
Summary
Variability is inevitable. It is a problem when it creates process instability,
lower capability, and customer dissatisfaction.
The goal of this chapter has been to study how to measure, analyze, and
minimize sources of this variability.
The point of this it to improve consistency in product process and
performance, which will hopefully lead to…
Total customer satisfaction, and..
A better competitive position.