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Climate Change and AB 32: The California Global Warming

Solutions Act of 2006

Climate Change and AB 32: The California Global Warming

Solutions Act of 2006

California Air Resources Board

Society Of American Military Engineers

Richard VarenchikApril 23, 2007

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Hansen et al., “Earth’s energy imbalance”, Science (2005) and “Global temperature change”, PNAS (2006)

Global Temperatures Since 1850

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12 Hottest Years on RecordOccurred in Past 16 Years

1998 2002 2003 2004 2001 1997 1995 1990 1991 1999

2005 2006 First Six Months of 2006 Warmest on RecordNo U.S. State was Cooler Than AverageFive States Had Record Heat:

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri

Oceans Warming Too—Absorbing Heat From Earth’s Surface

900 Climate Journal Articles Agree: Human GHGs Impact Climate

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Industrial Era Has Changed The Atmosphere

• Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other pollutants cause global warming

• IPCC concludes increase in these gases is a result of human activities

Source:IPCC Report: Summary for Policy Makers,

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

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California Climate Change: Projections For Next 100 Years

With aggressive control policies:• – Average temperature increase 4 to 6 F• – Sea level rise 8 to 11 inches• – Sierra snowpack decreased 29 to 72 percent

With business as usual:• – Average temperature increase 7 to 10 F• – Sea level rise 11 to 16 inches• – Sierra snowpack reduced 73 to 89 percent

6Source: March 2006 CAT Report, adapted from CEC, 2005

California’s Man-Made GHG Emissions 2002 (CO2-

equivalent)

Total statewide inventory

~ 500 MMTCO2E

Agriculture & Forestry8.0%

Transportation41.2%

Others8.4%

Electric Power19.6%

Industrial22.8%

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Control Implementation Timeline(Through Scoping Plan Approval)

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2020 Limit X Limit Approved

Mandatory X Regs AdoptedReporting Regs

EnforceableDiscrete Early X X XActions List Published Regs Adopted

Voluntary ActionImplementation

Scoping Plan X

Plan Approved

2007 2008 2009

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Emission Reduction Measures

• Direct reduction measures

• Market-based measures

• Incentives to reduce emissions

• Voluntary programs

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Criteria for RulemakingCriteria for Rulemaking

Design regulations to be equitable, minimize cost, encourage early action

No disproportionate impact on low-income communities

Credit for early voluntary reductions

Complement criteria pollutant strategies

Open process – public involvement through workshops, working groups, public meeting.

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Potential ARB Early ActionsPotential ARB Early Actions

•Early reductions prior to Scoping Plan

•Publish list by June 30, 2007

•Regulations enforceable January 1, 2010–Low Carbon Fuels

–Auto Refrigerants (DIY cans)

–Landfill Methane gas control

–More from ARB & other agencies•Web Page:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/030507symp/030507agenda.htm

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Statewide GHG Limit—AB 32 Statutory Directives

• Determine 1990 GHG emissions level and approve an equivalent limit for 2020

• Evaluate best scientific, technological and economic information

• Adopt Limit by Dec. 31, 2007• Limit remains in effect unless amended or

repealed

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REPORTING

• Working on Reporting Regulation• Public Workshops in 2007

– Need Input From All Interested Groups

• Bring to Board by December 2007• Effective in 2008; First Reporting 2009• Use CA Climate Action Registry Tools • Visit the New Web Page

– http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ccei/ccei.htm

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Mandatory Reporting—Milestones

• Early 2007– Identify significant sources, who will be required

to report and when– Review existing protocols– Workshops and workgroups to develop

regulation and supporting tools

• Spring/summer 2007 – Review and prepare protocols– Ongoing workgroups, workshops

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Mandatory Reporting—Milestones

• October 22, 2007– Release staff report

• December 6, 2007– Board hearing

• Reporting begins– TBD

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SOURCES THAT MAY BE INCLUDED FOR MANDATORY REPORTING

•Oil and gas production/distribution•Oil refineries•Cement manufacturers•Industrial/commercial combustion•Landfills•Electric power generators/utilities

•Other sources may be considered•Looking at CEQA impacts

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Supreme Court’s April 2 DecisionIn Massachusetts V. EPA

• Ruled EPA can regulate greenhouse gases• Ruling does not force EPA to regulate• However, any refusal should be based on

science & “reasoned justification”• CA asks Fresno court to set conference for

moving ahead with AB 1493 • Still awaiting EPA waiver on AB 1493• Federal government can still do national

GHG rules

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AB 1493 Adopted by Ca. Legislature in 2002Directs ARB to Pass Automobile GHG Reduction RuleRule Passed By ARB in September 2004Provides largest GHG reduction of any measure

– Cut auto GHGs 30% by 2016 model year– Adopted or considered by 11 states– Currently under court challenge– Have Just Asked Judge to set Conference for Moving Ahead

AB 1493 – Passenger Car RegulationsAB 1493 – Passenger Car Regulations

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If overturned, ARB to achieve equivalent or greater reductions through other mobile source regulations

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VERMONT AUTO CASE(Son of AB 1493)

• At Least 11 states have Adopted or are Considering ARB’s 1493 Regulation

• Automakers Sued in Ca., Rhode Island and Vermont to block the Regulation

• Vermont Case Currently in Trial

• Vermont Outcome Applies Only to Vermont

• California Case may go to Trial this Summer

• Ca. Case Impacts all other states

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Local Government Activities

• Local governments showing climate leadership• ARB liaison James Goldstene working to build

relationships• Climate Action Team subgroup established to

better define state/local interaction– Support for local activities– Guidance on possible reduction strategies– Quantification/accounting of reductions

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Contacts and More Information• ARB Climate Change Web Site

– http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm– Stay informed - sign up for the list serve

• California Climate Change Portal– http://climatechange.ca.gov/

• Chuck Shulock (916) 322-6964 cshulock@arb.ca.gov• Richard Varenchik (626) 575-6730

rvarench@arb.ca.gov• James Goldstene (916) 445-8449

jgoldste@arb.ca.gov (Business & local govt Issues)• ARB’s Help Line: 800 242-4450