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CONCEPTUAL AND DYNAMIC MODELLING OF THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF

COURSEWARE SYSTEMS FOR DISTANCE LEARNING PROGRAMS.

Alexei Sioutine

Institute of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling of Technological Processes,

Kola Science Centre of Russian Academy of Science, Apatity, Murmansk Region,

Russia, 184200.

Master Student in System Dynamics at the Department of Information Science,

University of Bergen NorwayEmail: alexei@ifi.uib.no

June 1999

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OUTLINE

Background

Instructional Systems Development Theory (ISD)

ISD 4 Model for Developing Instructional Material

Dynamic Modelling of Project Environments

Application of Dynamic Models in Real Project

Management Environments

Some Conclusions

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Background

Rapid development of distance based instructional learning systems during the past few years.

The instructional development represents a challenge of creating an effective and efficient training system that will meet the learning objectives and obtain the required outcomes of a learning process.

The development of distance learning programs inherits the complexities of the instructional development projects and moreover adds a problem of coordination between different regional, cultural and/or language project groups.

So far the development projects of distance learning programs have been based on random or intuitive approaches (Tennyson & Morrison).

An ISD theory suggests a framework for a more systematic approach to developing distance learning programs.

Instructional Systems Development Theory (1)

Today, instruction in general, and distance learning programs in particular,

often involves technology-based learning materials and environments.

These systems involve significant and expensive software development and

typically represent a level of complexity not encountered in more typical

business-oriented software development projects.

ISD is reasonably well-structured and well-established process for

developing educational and training systems and environments.

There are a number of R&D solutions for the courseware developers such as

lesson planning (GAIDA/GUIDE) or courseware planning (GOLDIE) tools,

and lesson generation tools (XAIDA), etc.

Instructional Systems Development Theory (2)

The original form of instructional development came directly from

military planning technology

The ISD process is an adaptation of systems engineering to problems

of development, implementation, and evaluation of instructional and

learning environments.

The last generation of instructional development process is described

by the Tennyson’s (1993) ISD4 model, the fourth generation of ISD.

The ISD4 process is characterized as an iterative process.

Instructional design is viewed in much the same way as ill-structured

problem solving (for example, architectural or engineering design).

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Tennyson’s ISD4 model

PRODUCTIONDOMAIN

DESIGNDOMAIN

MAINTENANCEDOMAIN

IMPLEMENTATIONDOMAIN

FOUNDATIONDOMAIN

Design-ProductionSubdomain

Production-ImplementationSubdomain

Production-ImplementationSubdomain

Implementation-MaintenanceSubdomain

SITUATIONALEVALUATION

Foundation-DesignSubdomain

Produce Learning Environment -Computer -Live -Multimedia -Print -VideoPrepare Management System for Learning Environment

Analyze Content -Curriculum (Macro) -Instruction (Micro)Specify Entry KnowledgeSpecify Organization & Sequence of InformationSpecify Learner ManagementSpecify Message DesignSpecify Human FactorsConduct Formative Evaluation (Design Revisions)

Prepare Learning Environment PlanEmploy Rapid Prototyping

Design Learner Evaluation Conduct Formative Evaluation of Prototype (Revision)

Conduct Formative Evaluation of Learning Environment (Refinement)Document Instructional Development Process and ISD Methodology (i.e., Authoring Activities)

Prepare Dissemination Plan for Learning Environment

Develop, Implement and Manage Maintenance System for the Learning Environment

Prepare and Conduct Maintenance EvaluationRevise and Refine Learning Environment

Define Educational PhilosophyDefine Learning TheoryDefine Instructional Theory

Specify Learning Environment: -Goals/Objectives (Learning and Performance Outcomes) -Management System -Delivery System -Facilities

Disseminate and Implement Learning Environment (Instruction and Management)

Assess Problem(s)/Need(s)Assess User PopulationDetermine ID Competence of Author/Team (novice, apprentice, expert)Propose ID Solution Plan (Define ID process and ISD methodology)

Conduct and Report Summative Evaluation

c Tennyson 1997

Design-Production-

ImplementationSubdomain

Foundation-MaintenanceSubdomain

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Components of the ISD model (1)

The Foundation or Analysis phase establishes the philosophical and psychological aspects of both the learning environment and the solution

plan. the training requirements are being determined. The instructional developer analyses the performance requirements and develops a task list. The difference between what the incoming students already know and can do and what the

job requires them to know and be able to do determines what the instruction is necessary. This phase involves job analysis, task analysis and learner analysis.

The Design phase establishes the specifications for the learning environment proposed in the ID solution plan. the authoring activities in this domain deal with analysing the content and the means for

delivering the content. a detailed plan of instruction, which includes selecting the instructional methods and media,

and determining the instructional strategies. the goals, objectives and learning environment architecture. The learning theory defined in the Analysis phase directly influences all of the activities

performed here.

Components of the ISD model (2)

The Development or Production phase involves those concepts and authoring activities that are directly associated with the actual production

of the learning environment; both the student’s and instructor’s lesson materials are developed. each unit/module of instruction and its associated instructional materials are validated

including internal review of the instruction; individual and small group tryouts; operational tryouts of the “whole“ system.

The final step in this phase is to finalise all training materials. The phase involves subject matter experts, authoring system specialists, media

specialists, test specialists, etc. The Implementation phase

provides the means to put the learning environment into operation. the instructional system is fielded under operational conditions. the activities of operational evaluation provide feedback from the field on the graduate’s

performance. This phase involves support staff, specialists, etc.

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Discussions of the ISD model (1)

The ISD is a problem-solving system.

The fourth generation of ISD represents the attempt to establish a system

that can adapt to individual problems/needs while also being able to

continuously update itself.

ISD4 is composed of three highly interactive components

situational evaluation - defines and assesses the problem/need for the

purpose of proposing an ID solution plan.

dynamic interaction - implements and manages the ID process as defined

in the ID solution plan.

ISD knowledge base - contains the concepts and authoring activities that

are necessary to form the solution(s) to a given problem/need situation.

Discussions of the ISD model (2)

The ISD model is characterized as an integrative system that dynamically adjusts the authoring activities of instructional development by direct reference to the given learning problem and/or need situation.

ISD4 employs concepts from system dynamics complexity theory (Gleick, 1987; Sterman, 1994).

Additionally, the system dynamics approach includes methodology to deal with both anticipated and unanticipated problems that arise during the course of actual instructional development.

The instructional development is a non-linear process that dynamically adapts to the problem conditions of a given learning problem/need situation.

The model provides a systematic approach to investigating an educational problem/need, seeking for means of providing solutions, and approaching these solutions with an efficient instructional system.

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Learning & Learning Environments

Learning involves long-lasting, stable changes in knowledge and skills

A learning environment consists of: one or more (usually more) learners, one or more expressible learning goals, one or more (usually more) topics or foci of interest, resources pertaining to the topics / foci, one or more (usually more) learning support means, feedback and assessment mechanisms, often implicit

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SD Based Learning Environments

According to many (Collins, Lave, Vygotsky, etc.), learning,

especially in complex domains, is a socially-situated

phenomenon.

First generation system dynamics based learning

environments (Management Flight Simulators) took this into

account and planned for small group interactions between

rounds of play.

Experience suggests that this collaborative aspect of learning

is effective and should be better supported and integrated in

these environments.

DYNAMIC MODELS OF COUSRSEWARE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

Successful management is critical for developing projects effectively and efficiently.

Managing projects is a complex and dynamic problem.

The existing models do not describe the process structure that drives the dynamics of the projects.

The difficulties in managing the projects arise from the dynamic project features such as

feedback,

delays and

non-linear relationships, and

Moreover, the lack of understanding of the relationships between structure and behaviour.

To manage projects successfully it is necessary to understand factors and dynamics involved in the development of projects.

The modelling of the development processes in projects has demonstrated the importance of explicitly describing and modelling the dynamic features of the process development (Ford, 1995).

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When and Why System Dynamics

What is system dynamics? A formalism developed for control theory Complex and dynamic systems modeled using collections of things

(stocks), and flows When to use system dynamics?

For systems involving feedback, delays, non-linearities, and uncertainty

Not for static, linear systems with little or no feedback Why use system dynamics?

In order to manage complex systems, one must first understand them. Modeling and simulation facilitates understanding.

The general structures involved in the projects

Resources Available

Resource Management

Development Process

Controlling Planning

Progress Status

Resources Needed

Effort Remaining

%Work/TasksCompleted

Schedule

Resources Required

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Decision Support & Learning

Decision Support The goal is to enhance job/task performance or promote

improved decision making (performance) Learning

The goal is to enhance understanding or promote acquisition of expertise (feedback is critical)

System Dynamics Based Decision Support Provide a framework for hypothesis testing, policy formulation,

and collaboration with colleagues System Dynamics Based Learning

Also provide a framework for model (re-) construction and collaboration with peers

APPLICATION OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELS IN REAL PROJECT ENVIRONMENTS

(1)

The applications of system dynamics to project management include creating team learning and training environments, providing a tool for advanced planning and control of ongoing projects, post mortem analysis to support dispute resolution.

The system dynamics models can be used on the two different levels of the project’s hierarchy (Rodrigues, 1997). The strategic level to cover the full project life cycle eventually capturing the

main major milestones. The operational level, which decomposes the project into a set of major

interrelated sub-tasks, each being modelled by a specialised system dynamics model.

The links that can be established between a system dynamics project model and the traditional models include structural and data links.

APPLICATION OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELS IN REAL PROJECT ENVIRONMENTS

(2)

In the planning, the system dynamics models can be used to (Rodrigues, 1997): uncover metrics about process performance; test the plan’s sensitivity to risks; assess the performance of alternative decisions of

• work and resource scheduling,

• alternative processes of product development, and

• alternative control policies. forecast the future project outcome.

In monitoring the models can be used to: uncover the intangible information about actual progress; estimate actual metrics about process performance explore whether

alternative decisions regarding

• work and resource scheduling,

• structuring of the development process, and

• policies of project control, could have provided better results.

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Learning about Decision Making and Policy Formulation

Decision making changing a parameter in the model (e.g., set the initial

estimate of job size, set the team size, etc.) Policy formulation

developing a rule to guide decision making (e.g., in the beginning, assign representative experts to the team and fade expert support as the project progresses; if the project falls slightly behind schedule, increase overtime, but avoid excessive overtime; etc.)

Both decision making and policy formulation can be supported with learner-learner collaborations

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Some Conclusions

The instructional systems development model and how this model can be

utilised for the development of the distance learning courseware systems was

described.

Applications of system dynamics theory to modelling complex project

environments and how this models can be utilised for modelling the distance

learning development projects,

Finally was presented a brief outline of how system dynamics models can be

utilised in the real project environments.

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Further Work and Research

To enhance understanding and learning the dynamic model can be

integrated into an interactive learning environment, which can be used

for training managers and participants of such projects.

A prototype of such learning environment for a generic instructional

development project has been created (Sioutine and Spector, 1999) as

a part of a large educational project for instructional project

development,

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Selected References - 1/2

Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and Madnick, S. E., “Software Project Dynamics, an integrated approach”, Englewwod Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, inc., 1990.

Collins, A. 1991. Cognitive apprenticeship and instructional technology. In L. Idol & B. F. Jones (Eds.), Educational values and cognitive instruction: Implications for reform. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

Davidsen, P.I. 1994. “Implementing elements of system dynamics approach to organisational learning”, In Proceedings of ESS’94, SCS. Ghent, Belgium.

Dörner, D. 1996 (Translated by Rita and Robert Kimber). The logic of failure: Why things go wrong and what we can do to make them right. New York: Holt.

Ford, D.N., “The Dynamics of Project Management: An Investigation of the Impacts of Project Process and Coordination on Performance”, unpublished PhD thesis, MIT 1995.

Forrester, J.W. “Industrial Dynamics.”, Productivity Press, Cambridge, MA, 1961. Gagné. R. M. 1995/96 “Learning Process and Instruction”, Training Research Journal, Vol. 1: 17-28. Gleick, J. (1987). Chaos: Making of a new science. New York: Norton. Lave, J. 1988. Cognition in practice. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Richardson G. P., and Pugh III, A. L., “Introduction to System Dynamics Modelling with Dynamo” MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1981. Reigeluth C. M. 1983. Instructional-design theories and models: An overview of their current status. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Chapter 1. Rodrigues Alexandre J. G. P.; “SYDIP - A System Dynamics-based Project Management Integrated Methodology”. In Proceedings of the 15

International System Dynamics Conference, pp:439-442, Istanbul, Turkey, July 1997.

June 98 24

Selected References - 2/2

Seville, D. A., and Kim D.H. “New Product Development Management” Flight Simulator Facilitator’s Guide v2.08 unpublished report. Organizational Learning Centre. Sloan School of Managemnt, MIT, Cambridge, MA.

Sterman, J. D. 1994 “Learning in and about complex systems”, System Dynamics Review, 11, pp 161-186. Sioutine A. V. 1998. “A System Dynamics Based model of ISD4 Project development and Management Process”, In

Proceedings of the 1998 European Simulation MultiConference, Manchester, June (15-18), England. Sioutine A. V.; Davidsen P. I.; and Spector J. M. 1998. “Modelling resource allocation in instructional systems development

projects”, In Proceedings of the 16th International System Dynamics Conference, Quebec, Canada (July 22-24). Sioutine A. V. and Spector J. M.1999. “On Time Within Budget: A Simulation Based Learning Environment for Practising

Resource Allocation in Instructional Systems Development Projects”. In Proceedings of the EUROMEDIA’99 conference, 25-28 April, 1999, Munchen, Germany.

Sioutine A. V. 1999. “Modelling Concurrency Relationships in Multiple-phase Courseware Development Projects”. In Proceedings of the 6th European Concurrent Engineering Conference, 20-23 April 1999, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen, Germany.

Spector, J. M. Cognitive complexity in decision making and policy formulation: A system dynamics perspective. Presented at the International Conference on Competence-Based Management, Oslo, Norway, 19 June, 1998.

Spector, J. M. & Davidsen, P. I. 1996. “Creating engaging courseware using system dynamics: The ISD Project Management Tutor.” In P. Carlson & F. Makedon (Eds.), Educational multimedia and hypermedia, 1996. Boston: Association for the Advancement of Computing in Education.

Tennyson, R.D. 1993. “A Framework for automating instructional design.” In Automating Instructional Design: Concepts and Issues, J.M. Spector, M.C. Polson, and D. J. Muraida eds., Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Educational Technology.

Tennyson, R .D., & Morrison, G. R. (in press).”Instructional development: Foundations, Process, and Methodology.” Columbus, OH: Merrill/Prentice-Hall.